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Random Price Movement

  • #101
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:13pm Sep 1, 2006 12:13pm
More importantly, walk away from the markets, don't think about Markets, have a good weekend and some fun, and come back refreshed and ready to attempt to kick ass on monday ( notice the ATTEMPT LOL )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #102
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:16pm Sep 1, 2006 12:16pm
Excellent.. This I agree with.. Have a great weekend.. Scott

Quoting Turveyd
More importantly, walk away from the markets, don't think about Markets, have a good weekend and some fun, and come back refreshed and ready to attempt to kick ass on monday ( notice the ATTEMPT LOL )
  • #103
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:17pm Sep 1, 2006 12:17pm
phil, just got to this thread. beautiful stuff man, absolutely essential knowlegde for the trader to have.

moral of the story...dont believe what your eyes tell you!
Relax and be happy.
  • #104
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:17pm Sep 1, 2006 12:17pm
SMJones,

"Please read post 92 again. this is not a computer program. But if you feel a coin toss is not random what is the point of discussing this? Please read this thread before you post on it's content. "


A coin toss is completely random, but the coin itself has some propertys, depending on the exact coin used, which if you do a sample test over say 10,000 you'd see, it's only 1 or 2% but it is there.

UK Coins for instance the Heads side has more mass, so as it spin when the head is downward facing the coin slowly down abit, and vice versa.

I always bet tails, because I like my 1 to 2 % advantage.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #105
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:19pm Sep 1, 2006 12:19pm
Do you agree that the psuedo random number generator in the excel spread sheet, is generating very un randomly ??

Which be why it's giving a very market like apearance.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #106
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:21pm Sep 1, 2006 12:21pm
Bad english

"UK Coins for instance the Heads side has more mass, so as it spin when the head is downward facing the coin slowly down abit, and vice versa."

should read

UK Coins for instance the Heads side has more mass, so as it spins, when the head side is downward facing the coin slows down abit, and vice versa.


If they are catching and reversing it onto there hand, go Heads!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #107
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:22pm Sep 1, 2006 12:22pm
No, You have two Questions there. The first part may or may not be correct. The second question is not correct. A random coin toss also produces these patterns... Again it looks like we will not agree on this...

Quoting Turveyd
Do you agree that the psuedo random number generator in the excel spread sheet, is generating very un randomly ??

Which be why it's giving a very market like apearance.
  • #108
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:26pm Sep 1, 2006 12:26pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I think when people say stuff like the USD can go up 30 pips and then pat themselves on the back when it happens may have been the unknowing recipient of a random move rather than a skilled technician.
right. and the opposite also happens. you can make a bad move and win, you can make a good move and lose. the behavior of the market does not define if you made a good or bad desicion. the behavior of the market DOES determine if you win or lose, but that says nothing about your technique.
Relax and be happy.
  • #109
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:26pm Sep 1, 2006 12:26pm
To see the bigger picture though, That really is not the point of this thread. The point is, It makes no sense trying to figure out why a market moved a minute amount. It makes more sense to try to figure out how to make a profit from it. The second point is that Money management is often overlooked and is often more important than the entry of the trade or the system used.
  • #110
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:27pm Sep 1, 2006 12:27pm
So just to be 100% clear as it's been a long long week :-

You think that the Excel spreadsheets Random number generator is 99% as good as a Coin Flip ??




If so, as a programmer, that along time ago worked on psuedo random number generating, thats not the case, infact the microsoft random number generator is a real pig when we are dealing with big numbers let alone yes / no.

It's psuedo random, it be the technical term for it, it gives the apearance of random, but isn't really.

Honest Guv!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #111
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:29pm Sep 1, 2006 12:29pm
LOL,, Let me make this very clear. I do not care about the random number generator in Excell This is a red hearing as it were. It is not the point of the thread. PLease read my posts if you want to understand what I am saying. thanks again, Scott



Quoting Turveyd
So just to be 100% clear as it's been a long long week :-

You think that the Excel spreadsheets Random number generator is 99% as good as a Coin Flip ??




If so, as a programmer, that along time ago worked on psuedo random number generating, thats not the case, infact the microsoft random number generator is a real pig when we are dealing with big numbers let alone yes / no.

It's psuedo random, it be the technical term for it, it gives the apearance of random, but isn't really.

Honest Guv!!
  • #112
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:30pm Sep 1, 2006 12:30pm
Agree 100% there SMJones, I've played with the idea of flipping a coin and placing trades based entirely on that as money management is key.


Prefer to have my cake and eat it, smart entrys and good money management / exits, but sadly lacking on both
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #113
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:33pm Sep 1, 2006 12:33pm
Merlin, recently started marking my own trades, on a profit / loss basis, but also on quality of trade ( scored from -10 to +10 ), does force you to think about your trades more, to get a higher score.

Some trades Lose, but still get a near 10 score, some get lucky and score negative. ( rare )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #114
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:38pm Sep 1, 2006 12:38pm
You have your system posted here , which is a bit off topic and will get buried. So I am going to pull it out and put it in it's own thread, so you can get some exposure on it.. Thanks Scott



Quoting Turveyd
Merlin, recently started marking my own trades, on a profit / loss basis, but also on quality of trade ( scored from -10 to +10 ), does force you to think about your trades more, to get a higher score.

Some trades Lose, but still get a near 10 score, some get lucky and score negative. ( rare )
  • #115
  • Sep 1, 2006 12:48pm Sep 1, 2006 12:48pm
Thanks Scott, I was considering doing that to, but pls go ahead as I'm lazy.



I'm logging off, first full week trading, it's a killer in more ways than 1.


enjoy
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #116
  • Sep 2, 2006 5:37am Sep 2, 2006 5:37am
Quoting smjones
What math are you basing this opinion on. All one has to do is take advantage of very short term inefficiencies in price action. If the market is random, it will reach equilibrium over a very large sample. However there are several opportunities in the short term, because Heads or tails can run often in a row, causing inbalances and inefficiencies.
The issue is, that the market will not reach equilibrium over time. After each single flip, next flip is completely unpredictable. Only way, to make money in the market is to somehow get an egde over it - or simply make prediction of future price actions. And if market was completely randon, you wouldn be possible to pridict anything.
  • #117
  • Sep 3, 2006 4:12am Sep 3, 2006 4:12am
Markets move from Buying / Selling Pressure, if you can identify the market has selling pressure at that time, get on short, 80% of the time you'll profit.

20% of the time, the seller finishes and the buyers move it up again, or a bigger buyer comes in to take advantage of the lower prices.


It's a huge battle, between Bulls and Bears, neither of which knows the future and both are merely speculating based on how they perceive the markets direction.


Read Chaos Thoery, it better explains the markets than Random.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #118
  • Sep 3, 2006 3:03pm Sep 3, 2006 3:03pm
Quoting Turveyd
Markets move from Buying / Selling Pressure, if you can identify the market has selling pressure at that time, get on short, 80% of the time you'll profit.

20% of the time, the seller finishes and the buyers move it up again, or a bigger buyer comes in to take advantage of the lower prices.


It's a huge battle, between Bulls and Bears, neither of which knows the future and both are merely speculating based on how they perceive the markets direction.


Read Chaos Thoery, it better explains the markets than Random.
Markets can't randomly move lower?
  • #119
  • Sep 3, 2006 5:13pm Sep 3, 2006 5:13pm
Markets aren't random at all, although they may seem that way at first to a casual observers.


Unfortunately, its the casual observers which write the books which you people read, then treat as gospel.



Funny old universe, but I really would live anywhere else!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #120
  • Sep 3, 2006 5:19pm Sep 3, 2006 5:19pm
Quoting Turveyd
Markets aren't random at all, although they may seem that way at first to a casual observers.


Unfortunately, its the casual observers which write the books which you people read, then treat as gospel.



Funny old universe, but I really would live anywhere else!!

LOL. Yeah, that Nassim Nicholas Taleb guy is an idiot. What a casual ovserver that guy is!
Secret Identity: Bill Sullivan
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