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Beyond the Candles

  • #2,301
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:05pm Dec 8, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting Dariusz
Nice to see finally some movement
Nice to see some old friends !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,302
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:08pm Dec 8, 2016 4:08pm
Quoting fxgroup
If you have read the thread, you know what PTT&TTP means .....and this is mine for Brent Crude Oil
Here we are... the buyers start to put some pressure on 53 level....please do not rush...wait for buyers to take control of the level first !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,303
  • Dec 9, 2016 3:14am Dec 9, 2016 3:14am
Nice insight on Brent Crude Oil!
In the chart below. I happened to choose an earlier pin bar that retraced back to the level but i got stopped out. I should have chosen the later pin bar. Can you please tell me where i went wrong? I am thinking that its because i should have waited for a forceful bearish move to the level before looking for PA. Like the bearish pin bar that came before the second pin bar. btw the charts are from a trading simulator and the big chart is from weekly and the small is daily.
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  • #2,304
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:00am Dec 9, 2016 7:00am
Quoting fxgrad
Nice insight on Brent Crude Oil! In the chart below. I happened to choose an earlier pin bar that retraced back to the level but i got stopped out. I should have chosen the later pin bar. Can you please tell me where i went wrong? I am thinking that its because i should have waited for a forceful bearish move to the level before looking for PA. Like the bearish pin bar that came before the second pin bar. btw the charts are from a trading simulator and the big chart is from weekly and the small is daily.
Thank for your question.....you really helped me to put out an important selection criteria.....when we chose to trade based on PB as PA there are some few aspect I consider about the PB. One of them is where the candle's body is...when we talk about PB and we have a long tail ( remember that the tails are the amount of liquidity within the PB that give the PB's strongness )it is very important that the body to be as close as possibile regard our S / R level...why this ?...when is to much space betwen the PB's body and the level, the P has the space to retrace on the level, theat means more space= deeper RET.

Look at the the chart below and notice the P reaction after the PBs that let more space betwen their bodies and the level, compared with P reaction in that cases when the PB's is closer to the level
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,305
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:53am Dec 9, 2016 7:53am
EURCAD=WPD+WPG
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,306
  • Dec 9, 2016 9:05am Dec 9, 2016 9:05am
Thanks for the explanation about the PB. You may have covered this already but i just want to talk about setting up levels and what to look for. Do i need to start the level based on the first historical record that caused the level or do we base it on where the price reacted the most? Or a bit of both including round numbers?

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Also, I hope you don't mind but i drew over your example of the channel in EURCAD. I wanted to have a go at picking out PTT. Let me know how i have done.

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Many Thanks!
  • #2,307
  • Dec 9, 2016 3:19pm Dec 9, 2016 3:19pm
Quoting fxgrad
Thanks for the explanation about the PB. You may have covered this already but i just want to talk about setting up levels and what to look for. Do i need to start the level based on the first historical record that caused the level or do we base it on where the price reacted the most? Or a bit of both including round numbers?
The first thing I do is to discover if WPD now on M / W is part of a market's structure, RM,etc and I identify the most important S / R levels . If the P is within a M / W RM then the RM's levels become the main priority levels that we will call them MM levels.
I do not use round numbers but I do pay atention to BRNs ( Big Round Numbers ...1.40...1.35...1.30..etc ).

EURCAD...at this point the only decent level we remain is 1.4050 because is the only one who let the space for MM till the dynamic S as final TG.
Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,308
  • Dec 10, 2016 12:02pm Dec 10, 2016 12:02pm
Hi!! Im happy u r back just log in to FF .
  • #2,309
  • Dec 10, 2016 1:34pm Dec 10, 2016 1:34pm
Quoting fxgroup
{quote} Here we are... the buyers start to put some pressure on 53 level....please do not rush...wait for buyers to take control of the level first !
WTI 55

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ope...-idUKKBN13Z0J8
  • #2,310
  • Dec 10, 2016 2:12pm Dec 10, 2016 2:12pm
Quote
Quoting Fxgroup
The first thing I do is to discover if WPD now on M / W is part of a market's structure, RM,etc and I identify the most important S / R levels . If the P is within a M / W RM then the RM's levels become the main priority levels that we will call them MM levels.
I do not use round numbers but I do pay atention to BRNs ( Big Round Numbers ...1.40...1.35...1.30..etc )

EURCAD...at this point the only decent level we remain is 1.4050 because is the only one who let the space for MM till the dynamic S as final TG

Thanks for the response Fxgroup! You're the man!

Hi Tp-link and Dariusz. Its truly awesome to be on this thread!
  • #2,311
  • Dec 11, 2016 1:11am Dec 11, 2016 1:11am
Quoting fxgroup
{quote} The first thing I do is to discover if WPD now on M / W is part of a market's structure, RM,etc and I identify the most important S / R levels . If the P is within a M / W RM then the RM's levels become the main priority levels that we will call them MM levels. I do not use round numbers but I do pay atention to BRNs ( Big Round Numbers ...1.40...1.35...1.30..etc ). EURCAD...at this point the only decent level we remain is 1.4050 because is the only one who let the space for MM till the dynamic S as final TG.
Hi Sir ,
You made my day .... i just saw that you are back .. this is the best thread i have read on FF & thanks for your help & support ... you are the best ...
Don't Predict Just React..
  • #2,312
  • Dec 11, 2016 10:35am Dec 11, 2016 10:35am
I totally agree Nbr42. This is the best thread on FF.

I have another question for you Fxgroup (btw, my understanding of your trading method is much more clear now with your help. Thank you so much!).
While practicing, i came across the scenario below. The price is trending up and is the highest it has been so far. The sellers come in and push the price down and eventualy the buyers push the price back up exceeding the recent NCA. Now, i am looking for a RET on daily but the price reacts to the weekly tail tip belonging to the bar that send the price falling previously. Should i be aware of this type of setup or should i ignore.
Many Thanks!

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  • #2,313
  • Dec 11, 2016 3:16pm Dec 11, 2016 3:16pm
Quoting Tp-link
Hi!! Im happy u r back just log in to FF .
I'm happy you are still hanging around....more to come
Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,314
  • Dec 12, 2016 2:46am Dec 12, 2016 2:46am
Quoting Nbr42
{quote} Hi Sir , You made my day .... i just saw that you are back .. this is the best thread i have read on FF & thanks for your help & support ... you are the best ...
L.O.L. My wife is allready jealous !!!
Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,315
  • Dec 12, 2016 3:23am Dec 12, 2016 3:23am
Quoting fxgrad
I totally agree Nbr42. This is the best thread on FF. I have another question for you Fxgroup (btw, my understanding of your trading method is much more clear now with your help. Thank you so much!). While practicing, i came across the scenario below. The price is trending up and is the highest it has been so far. The sellers come in and push the price down and eventualy the buyers push the price back up exceeding the recent NCA. Now, i am looking for a RET on daily but the price reacts to the weekly tail tip belonging to the bar that...
Very interesting question with 2 answers:

1- do you remember our previous conversation about the first PB that doesn't reach our level ?..this is one of those cases, you had the PB, but it was away of our level and this space could have put the P lower into a deeper RET

2- and the most important answer- is based on Trading Psychology. Very often the difference betwen a profitable trader and a loser is made by respecting the rules and putting in practice the plan as we did it...why this ?....because the most importing thing in trading is trading safe...non only from a financial point a view, but especially from a mindful perspective. If we put ourselves in situation that we become unsecure and doubtful about how to act,trade or manage the trade, it becomes very dangerous for our accounts. In order to trade in a profitable manner we should be in good mental state and as comfortable as keeping the control of our action in trading. In that moment when we do not respect our PTT&TTP we will found ourselves right in front of mistakes.
What does this mean...it means that if we planned to trade to a certain level , no matter what the P do, we respect our plan and will trade ONLY at that level. There will be many cases when the P won't respect our plan ( remember: the P does what it wants not what we want ) , in ALL these cases we just stay out...we do not trade if the P doesn't respect our PTT&TTP.......otherwise we put ourselves into a no comfort zone where we will likely be prone to make mistakes !!!....simple as that !!!
Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,316
  • Dec 12, 2016 3:38am Dec 12, 2016 3:38am
Quoting fxgrad
I totally agree Nbr42. This is the best thread on FF. I have another question for you Fxgroup (btw, my understanding of your trading method is much more clear now with your help. Thank you so much!). While practicing, i came across the scenario below. The price is trending up and is the highest it has been so far. The sellers come in and push the price down and eventualy the buyers push the price back up exceeding the recent NCA. Now, i am looking for a RET on daily but the price reacts to the weekly tail tip belonging to the bar that...
Thank you, very good question - and answer from fxgroup !

If I may add from experience : sometime it makes sense to look at the manner / price behaviour of the candles AFTER the NCA. Look at the candles after the bearish engulfing candle after the NCA. We have basically 2 bearish candles, immediately followed by a bullish engulf ( notice not just the pattern, but as well the NUMBER of candles ( which additionally shows how much TIME bears spend with their retrace ). This shows bull pressure ( demand ).

Then, AFTER the break higher we see a smaller bear candle, but it cannot even go lower than 50% of the breakout candle ( close ! ). This shows that buyers are still strong and makes it statistically more probable that a retest MIGHT only go to the area of the bearish tail ( as you describe ), and not deeper/lower to the NCA.

I hope I can add to the discussion.

This thread is still my favourite, best wishes to all !
Be like water.
  • #2,317
  • Dec 12, 2016 4:55am Dec 12, 2016 4:55am
Quoting msmarple
{quote} I hope I can add to the discussion.
Be my guest !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #2,318
  • Dec 12, 2016 5:23am Dec 12, 2016 5:23am
Quoting fxgroup
{quote} Very interesting question with 2 answers: 1- do you remember our previous conversation about the first PB that doesn't reach our level ?..this is one of those cases, you had the PB, but it was away of our level and this space could have put the P lower into a deeper RET 2- and the most important answer- is based on Trading Psychology. Very often the difference betwen a profitable trader and a loser is made by respecting the rules and putting in practice the plan as we did it...why this ?....because the most importing thing in trading is...

Hi Fxgroup,

Most important is to be super precised when we make a plan and ready for loss with firm SL (every case), not a mental one - it is BS, only if you have very small levarage it is to consider mental SL, but FX is levarage market so from midset point of view it is better to have fimr SL.
  • #2,319
  • Dec 12, 2016 2:37pm Dec 12, 2016 2:37pm
Thanks all for your advice! I do admit i wonder a lot while trading and i really should stick to the plan. You could not have made it more clear Fxgroup. I will stick to PTT & TTP from now on.
  • #2,320
  • Dec 12, 2016 3:38pm Dec 12, 2016 3:38pm
Quoting Dariusz
{quote} Hi Fxgroup, Most important is to be super precised when we make a plan and ready for loss with firm SL (every case), not a mental one - it is BS, only if you have very small levarage it is to consider mental SL, but FX is levarage market so from midset point of view it is better to have fimr SL.
Here is an example of this methodology from stock market...look WPD after the M candle's close below the S level...exactly...it made its RET to level and WPG....exactly...to the next strong S level.
Remember : the M close below the level is the INFORMATION ...only AFTER the information is concluded we have to wait for CONFIRMATION on lower TF.
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Nothing personal,just business
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