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The Swamp

  • #10,361
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:37am Dec 8, 2016 4:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i was stopped out of my longs Sunday. i got back in at .070, but chickened out on the drop after .079.. +25 s/o on both. atm eu is near .0800 with fresh new highs today. its near last years close. even with the break of .0515 leg. and even if that means bearish. one shouldn't not think its not a better than a 50/50 shot of returning to 1.1xx. that upper 0515 leg break isnt a 046x leg break. with the years close so near, it may allow a drop of 150ish pips or 1/2 way to the recent .049x low. from there a bounce toward the 1.1 has a decent...
some resistance in the .0826/9x area usually would bring the safer to wait for 50% retrace from low. that attraction would normally pull down from a decent Resistance. on the other hand intra day. that same logic would st pull it down to high to low or 0723/0797 mid point (w/o breaking 0723 low). as long as the 0797 high held. that with the attraction of the 150 ish pips had me set up a intraday long just above 0723 with a stop close below it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,362
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:44am Dec 8, 2016 4:44am
Quoting stylinex
Anyone here catch this dirty drop on the YUAN? http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/rumor...ial-media.html {image}
i have some old post out there.. it needs a norm pullback drop.. just like the uj needed one. a wtf type... i dont have a chart atm.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,363
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:10am Dec 8, 2016 7:10am
Shorted usdcad.
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  • #10,364
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:31am Dec 8, 2016 7:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} some resistance in the .0826/9x area usually would bring the safer to wait for 50% retrace from low. that attraction would normally pull down from a decent Resistance. on the other hand intra day. that same logic would st pull it down to high to low or 0723/0797 mid point (w/o breaking 0723 low). as long as the 0797 high held. that with the attraction of the 150 ish pips had me set up a intraday long just above 0723 with a stop close below it.
triggered i closed it manual for 15 pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,365
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:33am Dec 8, 2016 7:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} triggered i closed it manual for 15 pips.
the 150 pips is now 200.. aprox.. so 200 off the high.. or about 069x or less
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,366
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:38am Dec 8, 2016 7:38am
nice rejection off the years end close 08xx
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,367
  • Dec 8, 2016 7:44am Dec 8, 2016 7:44am
Draghi giving the EUR a good hammering. Not sure if I should hold onto my position or bag the profit. Already at daily support 3.


*edit: closed.
  • #10,368
  • Dec 8, 2016 12:00pm Dec 8, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i have some old post out there.. it needs a norm pullback drop.. just like the uj needed one. a wtf type... i dont have a chart atm.
The YUAN is a no brainer long term short currency to short. Not much daily volatility in it to trade but just short and sit on it and it should pay well when the down move comes (and it will come, just wait and see).
  • #10,369
  • Dec 8, 2016 12:17pm Dec 8, 2016 12:17pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} The YUAN is a no brainer long term short currency to short. Not much daily volatility in it to trade but just short and sit on it and it should pay well when the down move comes (and it will come, just wait and see).
You mean short USDCNY or long USDCNY ?
  • #10,370
  • Dec 8, 2016 12:45pm Dec 8, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} You mean short USDCNY or long USDCNY ?
Long USD against CNY. The Chinese Yuan should cross 7 and head north of that. You need a long term plan for it and it will hit your goal. Prior to getting there it could make a reverse move first to take out some positions against those shorting the Chinese Yuan currency. I would leave room for a 6-7% currency move in the opposite direction just to be safe so you do not lose your money but I am very positive that long term the trend is down and not up for the Chinese Yuan. In the past it was up so that they could join that IMF thing they wanted to join and now that they are in it should continue to drop as YEN and EURO have been dropping. Unless Trump can get rid of Yellen (of which he can not) the trend should still be the same and that is a stronger USD in place for 2017.

If DAX finishes up over 11,000 this year then it should have very little gains. Last year on the last trading day of 2015 the DAX finished around 10,877 and when it opened back up on January 4th it opened down and continued to head South until Feb.11 where it bottomed at around 8700 (take or give). The high for this year is pretty much then what it is at now as previously it was around 10,544 (take or give) of which it opened down at early January. Minimal gains for the DAX this year unless they decide to take it up to 12,000 before the end of this month
  • #10,371
  • Dec 8, 2016 1:44pm Dec 8, 2016 1:44pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Long USD against CNY. The Chinese Yuan should cross 7 and head north of that. You need a long term plan for it and it will hit your goal. Prior to getting there it could make a reverse move first to take out some positions against those shorting the Chinese Yuan currency. I would leave room for a 6-7% currency move in the opposite direction just to be safe so you do not lose your money but I am very positive that long term the trend is down and not up for the Chinese Yuan. In the past it was up so that they could join that IMF thing they...
What is your long term ? 1 year probably as you've mentioned ''2017'' ?
....
#eurjpy 116.41 normal PA, seller at 121.77 if bounces any. Anyone shorted the top ?
  • #10,372
  • Dec 8, 2016 9:15pm Dec 8, 2016 9:15pm
Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #10,373
  • Dec 8, 2016 10:39pm Dec 8, 2016 10:39pm
Cable seller at 2672, buyer at 2467 (hourly setup.) #gbpusd
  • #10,374
  • Dec 8, 2016 11:30pm Dec 8, 2016 11:30pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} What is your long term ? 1 year probably as you've mentioned ''2017'' ? .... #eurjpy 116.41 normal PA, seller at 121.77 if bounces any. Anyone shorted the top ?
This is what I had said about the YEN also when it was at 100-102. Today it is back at 114

For the YUAN, the longer you hold it the higher the chances of it going your way are. With Trump becoming President early January the odds are very high that he would have problems with the Chinese in regards to trade. Chinese control their currency and the dollar will be strong so YUAN has a very very high chance of weakening. Chinese also want to maintain a 7% GDP number for growth and I do not see that happening without YUAN weakening every year to get those numbers that they want
  • #10,375
  • Dec 9, 2016 12:11am Dec 9, 2016 12:11am
Quoting gatorinla
apple releases today.. in july equities dropped after...... today apple is lower than august. 14 above a db. apple at 105 atm.. at 107.8/109,, it may set up a drop.. doubtful and tin hat mostly.. it hasnt triggered..using the same view as uj drop to 106.. 100.5 and so forth.. apple may be at a 60 handle. if it disappoints or just for the hell of it because yen drops.. china yuan still gaining, i may buy if it continues to slightly below 6.349. atm usd/china 6.4778.. this is a valid target.. i doubt china will do this w/o raising eu purposely, to...
i was thinking yuan would be a better long after 6.349. it may take some months or longer was my thought at the time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,376
  • Dec 9, 2016 12:15am Dec 9, 2016 12:15am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} The YUAN is a no brainer long term short currency to short. Not much daily volatility in it to trade but just short and sit on it and it should pay well when the down move comes (and it will come, just wait and see).
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post8826508
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,377
  • Dec 9, 2016 1:09am Dec 9, 2016 1:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i was thinking yuan would be a better long after 6.349. it may take some months or longer was my thought at the time.
I will not argue that 6.349 is not possible as everything is possible these days. Knowing the Chinese though I believe it would need to break 6.50 in order for it to see 6.349 while very well possible I personally do not see it happening (although I could be wrong and you be right). My bet is 7,7.20,7.5 and then off to 8 before 2018 some time. If things get ugly then earlier
  • #10,378
  • Dec 9, 2016 1:20am Dec 9, 2016 1:20am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} This is what I had said about the YEN also when it was at 100-102. Today it is back at 114 For the YUAN,
Good, 112 was indicated after 100.5 norm hit.
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Quoting stylinex
the longer you hold it the higher the chances of it going your way are. With Trump becoming President early January the odds are very high that he would have problems with the Chinese in regards to trade. Chinese control their currency and the dollar will be strong so YUAN has a very very high chance of weakening. Chinese also want to maintain a 7% GDP number for growth and I do not see that happening without YUAN weakening every year to get those numbers that they want
This is my long term setup, it may go above 7. after hitting norm likely to drop till 3.7 #usdcny #usdcnh
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...
Shorted #audjpy possible dt. risking dt. atm 85.51
  • #10,379
  • Dec 9, 2016 2:13am Dec 9, 2016 2:13am
SHORT
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #10,380
  • Dec 9, 2016 2:59am Dec 9, 2016 2:59am
UJ could trigger the rest of the moves for dollar...

EU looks like its getting ready for a break south also...
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