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vsa with Malcolm

  • #28,081
  • Dec 7, 2016 2:09am Dec 7, 2016 2:09am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} You read the situation correctly, you saw the weakness. A NS is testing the market for supply, they can and will fail. In fact a failed test is a sign of weakness. Did you notice how price never touched the high of the NS? As for the shakeout it's not a shakeout. A shakeout is designed to take out weak holders, meaning that for the traders who saw the initial strength come in and went long, the shakeout is meant to shake them out of their positions and catch their stops. Also a shakeout will be at the lows, how is this shakeout at the lows?...
About shakeout - screen. Why not this logic?

Tbh, dont understand what do you mean
Quote
Did you notice how price never touched the high of the NS?
It had to be toched and breaked, since after NS price have to go up, no?
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  • #28,082
  • Dec 7, 2016 2:15am Dec 7, 2016 2:15am
Quoting Vcv13
good one Hawkins but your answer is not complete, I mean it is not good to consider every bar that pops up above previous bar's close with volume less than the previous two bars as a ND. Ok can anyone tell me if a no-demand can be on a downbar or not? or a no-demand can only be on up-bars?
As i understand, things so :
it could be up-bar, if the high is higher, than previous bar high
  • #28,083
  • Dec 7, 2016 2:44am Dec 7, 2016 2:44am
Granpa is in a mood to teach today!

If you guys have any respect for Sebestian Manby........... well, he hates a no-demand that makes a higher high, in his own words, he'd strictly enter a trade on an ND that doesn't make a higher high as a matter of principle.

There are some videos posted by a member with the id gez40 I think, about a year back, the London Symposium video of Gavin Holmes & Manby & Williams. In one of those videos Phil Friston & Gavin Holmes are discussing a narrow spread bar that is a down bar, with volume less than the previous two bars, Phil says there's a little bit of both (a ND as well as a NS) on that bar.

Anyone interested in VSA should should check those videos.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,084
  • Dec 7, 2016 3:56am Dec 7, 2016 3:56am
Quoting Vcv13
Granpa is in a mood to teach today! If you guys have any respect for Sebestian Manby........... well, he hates a no-demand that makes a higher high, in his own words, he'd strictly enter a trade on an ND that doesn't make a higher high as a matter of principle. There are some videos posted by a member with the id gez40 I think, about a year back, the London Symposium video of Gavin Holmes & Manby & Williams. In one of those videos Phil Friston & Gavin Holmes are discussing a narrow spread bar that is a down bar, with volume less than the previous...
Sad, I can't find them
  • #28,085
  • Dec 7, 2016 4:36am Dec 7, 2016 4:36am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} You read the situation correctly, you saw the weakness. A NS is testing the market for supply, they can and will fail. In fact a failed test is a sign of weakness. Did you notice how price never touched the high of the NS? As for the shakeout it's not a shakeout. A shakeout is designed to take out weak holders, meaning that for the traders who saw the initial strength come in and went long, the shakeout is meant to shake them out of their positions and catch their stops. Also a shakeout will be at the lows, how is this shakeout at the lows?...
 
Can you explain better about this fake shake out bar?
 
I understood and agreed with you that isn't a shake out, but how do you exactly interpret this bar?
 
I mean, we can assume that this bar had some buyers because it closed on the highs.. but the next bar is down right, so would you interpret this bar a "failed sign of strenght"? Like effort vs result, buyers just had failed to make the market go high
 
Would appreciate your answer
  • #28,086
  • Dec 7, 2016 4:51am Dec 7, 2016 4:51am
Quoting LuckyMind
Sad, I can't find them

here you go...

Quoting gez40
Christmas gift https://drive.google.com/folderview?...bFhrVkk&ddrp=1
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #28,087
  • Dec 7, 2016 5:12am Dec 7, 2016 5:12am
Quoting Vcv13
{quote} here you go... {quote}
Oh! Thank you very much, I am very grateful
  • #28,088
  • Dec 7, 2016 6:14am Dec 7, 2016 6:14am
Quoting odines
{quote}  Can you explain better about this fake shake out bar?  I understood and agreed with you that isn't a shake out, but how do you exactly interpret this bar?  I mean, we can assume that this bar had some buyers because it closed on the highs.. but the next bar is down right, so would you interpret this bar a "failed sign of strenght"? Like effort vs result, buyers just had failed to make the market go high  Would appreciate your answer

Like you said there was some buyers on the bar because of the close on the highs.

My best guess is some small player might have bought the market on a break out strategy, the volume is about average so its doubtful they bought it enough to move the market.

Remember just because you see a climatic action doesn't mean the market is going to turn and change directions, you have to wait and see how the market reacts to it (This reaction is where testing/trend changes come into play).
Trust the Market
  • #28,089
  • Edited 8:09am Dec 7, 2016 7:57am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} Like you said there was some buyers on the bar because of the close on the highs. My best guess is some small player might have bought the market on a break out strategy, the volume is about average so its doubtful they bought it enough to move the market. Remember just because you see a climatic action doesn't mean the market is going to turn and change directions, you have to wait and see how the market reacts to it (This reaction is where testing/trend changes come into play).
How would you describe bar 1?
Is it stop vol, shake out or maybe climax vol bar?

Edit : well, hull wasn't up there yet, sad it wasn't long -_-
Also mb some1 know, which periond should i use for Hull for m5/m15/h1 ?
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  • #28,090
  • Dec 7, 2016 8:47am Dec 7, 2016 8:47am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} How would you describe bar 1? Is it stop vol, shake out or maybe climax vol bar? Edit : well, hull wasn't up there yet, sad it wasn't long -_- Also mb some1 know, which periond should i use for Hull for m5/m15/h1 ? {image}
I would say bar 1 is stopping volume, bar 2 is potential buying.

I think Malcolm used 34 and 21. I never really was a fan of hulls, I know Sonofsin is a big fan of the 21 SMA.

Something that I use on daily time frame is to watch and see if the individual bars are making HHs and HLs for a trend.
Trust the Market
  • #28,091
  • Dec 7, 2016 9:05am Dec 7, 2016 9:05am
Uneventful day for me today, hopefully someone out there had a better day.

2 trades, first trade on GBP taken at BE.

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2nd trade on NZD I don't expect this to go anywhere.

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Trust the Market
  • #28,092
  • Dec 7, 2016 9:13am Dec 7, 2016 9:13am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} Like you said there was some buyers on the bar because of the close on the highs. My best guess is some small player might have bought the market on a break out strategy, the volume is about average so its doubtful they bought it enough to move the market. Remember just because you see a climatic action doesn't mean the market is going to turn and change directions, you have to wait and see how the market reacts to it (This reaction is where testing/trend changes come into play).
Thank's for sharing your knowlegde, that's a nice asnwer and make sense to me.. btw, what a great thread, helping me so much at my vsa learning

If you don't mind id like do clear up another thing that get me confused sometimes. That's about the quote below from LuckyMind, so that's a question for both of you guys, and other's that may wanna help

Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} Hello, I'm not even close to pro, but if you wouldn't mind i will try to answer too, to check with right answer later) There are paragraph at MM about channels, and there were that if we are approaching trend line at low volume or at narrow spread - we will not break it. On the other hand we had high vol wide spread bar, which closed below LO zone, and the next bar only confirmed - its true break, we will not move up. Surely, its backdating analysis.
My question is about low volume bars when we are aprroaching trend line, supports or resistance levels, like LuckyMind said "if we are approaching trend line at low volume or at narrow spread - we will not break it". I've heard some others traders saying this also, but I can think about this in another way.

To make my point of view easier to understand, let's say we are in a up trend and we are now just below into a known resistance level.

If we are approaching resistance in low volume, i honestly think in fact that we may gonna break it (instead of not break it - like is said in MM). Resistance to me as a vsaer trade means supply, so if we are approaching into a resistance in a up move without supply (due to low volume), we probably gonna break it (if we have strenght in the back ground of course, always pau attention to the background!). In fact i woudnt say low volume, i would preffer to call it "normal" volume, that would means that we have some demand right? if we have just a very low bars at a resistance that could mean that we have no supply and no demand at the moment I think.

Otherside, if we are approaching a resistance into a high volume bars, i think it can be professional selling, effort to go up or professional absorption to go up. That would need a later confirmation like ND, NS, Test, etc..

Am I getting things right? Or tryng to make to difficult a simple thing? hehe
  • #28,093
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:03am Dec 7, 2016 10:03am
Quoting odines
{quote} Thank's for sharing your knowlegde, that's a nice asnwer and make sense to me.. btw, what a great thread, helping me so much at my vsa learning If you don't mind id like do clear up another thing that get me confused sometimes. That's about the quote below from LuckyMind, so that's a question for both of you guys, and other's that may wanna help {quote} My question is about low volume bars when we are aprroaching trend line, supports or resistance levels, like LuckyMind said "if we are approaching trend line at low volume or at narrow spread...
Honestly I'd say Pres78 is the expert on that subject with his zones. At the moment I'm trading a clear chart with PA alone and trying to get away from S/R.

I recently ran across some of the webinars that Tom did in 2010. In the videos he gets asked all these questions and he usually likes to respond with "We don't use mathematical formulas". With that in mind I would say don't get caught up with what the market must do in certain situations. I would say learn as much as you can about the VSA principles.

The greatest thing about VSA is that it does allow a trader to set incredibly tight stops, maybe we should focus more on reducing our risk and letting our trades run?
Trust the Market
  • #28,094
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:17am Dec 7, 2016 10:17am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} I would say bar 1 is stopping volume, bar 2 is potential buying. I think Malcolm used 34 and 21. I never really was a fan of hulls, I know Sonofsin is a big fan of the 21 SMA. Something that I use on daily time frame is to watch and see if the individual bars are making HHs and HLs for a trend.
Thx for clarifying!

I found two situations, that made me really sad, cuz i can't understand what i missed
They are very same, so i really want to sort out it
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  • #28,095
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:46am Dec 7, 2016 10:46am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} Thx for clarifying! I found two situations, that made me really sad, cuz i can't understand what i missed They are very same, so i really want to sort out it {image} {image}
We talked about this situation earlier today with the failed tests. I guess I didn't explain it well.

I've already turned my PC off so I will post the charts tomorrow.

But those are failed tests, price drops and closes below the low of the test, this is a sign of weakness. Also both times price never popped up above the high of those tests. I know that at times I will enter on the close, but it's best to place your order above or below your entry bar.
Trust the Market
  • #28,096
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:57am Dec 7, 2016 10:57am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} We talked about this situation earlier today with the failed tests. I guess I didn't explain it well. I've already turned my PC off so I will post the charts tomorrow. But those are failed tests, price drops and closes below the low of the test, this is a sign of weakness. Also both times price never popped up above the high of those tests. I know that at times I will enter on the close, but it's best to place your order above or below your entry bar.
I see now, i thought i could find failed test before i catch loss.
Eh, have to admite place an pending order is a very nice idea, but really like to enter from close

But anyway, enter from those bars (excluding not enter from close) was according to the rules?
  • #28,097
  • Dec 7, 2016 11:37am Dec 7, 2016 11:37am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} Thx for clarifying! I found two situations, that made me really sad, cuz i can't understand what i missed They are very same, so i really want to sort out it {image} {image}
USDJPY

Look at my chart. 1hr zone on the LO bar. Looking at my chart would you still have wanted to go long? Even just looking at your chart. We printed a high volume down bar but what is the PA after? A weak up move. We hadn't even taken out the high of that down bar yet so why rush to go long? Also you need to look at what that down bar did... it took out the double bottom low for the day making a new days low. This should be first looked at as possible absorption volume especially where we closed below. Now this could have turned into a SO on a higher TF but it didn't...

Next what your marking as tests aren't really tests. At most I would call them NS bars (as they are down bars). They aren't testing any key levels or demand areas. They are at the high of an already weak retrace after making a LL and a new daily low (start of a possible LL, LH trend down). For me tests should be making a new low for the last few bars and testing a level not floating in space.

GBPUSD

Not posting a chart for this one... again not really tests for me. Again we were inside the recent volume bar without having taken out the high so no need to rush and get long.

As Hawkins mentioned typical entry for NS or tests would be a few pips above the high using a pending. In both cases this would have kept you from even getting in long. The reason we want the high taken out is to show the test or NS was truly a sign of strength.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,098
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:46pm Dec 7, 2016 1:46pm
Watching GBPUSD with great interest as we head into the daily close. We are testing into a very important level right now. Let's see how the close and volume finish up.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #28,099
  • Dec 7, 2016 6:21pm Dec 7, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} Honestly I'd say Pres78 is the expert on that subject with his zones. At the moment I'm trading a clear chart with PA alone and trying to get away from S/R. I recently ran across some of the webinars that Tom did in 2010. In the videos he gets asked all these questions and he usually likes to respond with "We don't use mathematical formulas". With that in mind I would say don't get caught up with what the market must do in certain situations. I would say learn as much as you can about the VSA principles. The greatest thing about VSA is that...
That's a thing that I need to improve, sometimes i just let losing trades run for so long, i'm gonna watch some others TG videos

Quoting pres78
Watching GBPUSD with great interest as we head into the daily close. We are testing into a very important level right now. Let's see how the close and volume finish up.
Yo pres, any comments about this question? Would appreciate your asnwer

Quoting odines
{quote} That's about the quote below from LuckyMind, so that's a question for both of you guys, and other's that may wanna help {quote}

My question is about low volume bars when we are aprroaching trend line, supports or resistance levels, like LuckyMind said "if we are approaching trend line at low volume or at narrow spread - we will not break it". I've heard some others traders saying this also, but I can think about this in another way.

To make my point of view easier to understand, let's say we are in a up trend and we are now just below into a known resistance level.

If we are approaching resistance in low volume, i honestly think in fact that we may gonna break it (instead of not break it - like is said in MM). Resistance to me as a vsaer trade means supply, so if we are approaching into a resistance in a up move without supply (due to low volume), we probably gonna break it (if we have strenght in the back ground of course, always pau attention to the background!). In fact i woudnt say low volume, i would preffer to call it "normal" volume, that would means that we have some demand right? if we have just a very low bars at a resistance that could mean that we have no supply and no demand at the moment I think.

Otherside, if we are approaching a resistance into a high volume bars, i think it can be professional selling, effort to go up or professional absorption to go up. That would need a later confirmation like ND, NS, Test, etc.. Am I getting things right? Or tryng to make to difficult a simple thing? hehe
  • #28,100
  • Dec 7, 2016 6:34pm Dec 7, 2016 6:34pm
Quoting Vcv13
err.....I asked for the difference between a no-demand & a hidden test
Difference between a ND and I hidden test...

Disclaimer - As always this is my answer based on how I trade and see the markets and may not be
100% in line with true VSA.

First off a ND is in its most basic sense a SOW whereas a hidden test is a SOS. I prefer to see ND's for trading in a weak sellers market and hidden tests in a string buyers market.

Second point for me is that a ND can make a HH than the previous bar but MUST NOT make a LL whereas a hidden test MUST make a LL than the previous bar otherwise it's not a test. If a ND makes a LL then for me it's no longer a ND... it's a hidden test.

That's about it... for what it's worth I trade tests also as SOW (an upside down test, call it a weak lower volume UT) in weak markets as sell signals. Many times these are what complete my favorite 2BR signal.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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