Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

THE END IS NEAR IN ITALY

GREAT EUR/USD Chart !!! Thanks to Spiders Den

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1481011476

Snippet:
The wait is almost over.

After two previous taxpayer funded bailouts, and nearly five months of foreplay since the third largest Italian bank failed the latest European stress test at the end of July, in which the Italian government in September vow that "bailout for Italian banks has been 'absolutely' ruled out", a third bailout, as we previewed earlier today, is now imminent.

According to Reuters, which cites two sources, Italy is preparing to take a €2 billion controlling stake in Monte Paschi as the bank's hopes of a private funding rescue have faded after a fruitless five month search to secure an anchor investor, following Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's decision to quit.

The government, which is already the ailing bank's single largest shareholder with a four percent share, is planning do a debt-for-equity swap, and buy junior bonds held by ordinary Italians to take the stake up to 40%, the sources said. The bonds would then be equitized, converting the government's bond stake into pure equity ownership, a troubling approach as it would effectively wipe out the existing equity tranche and position the bank for a potential bankruptcy fight in court where the government faces off with the equity committee.

This transaction would make the government by far the biggest shareholder, meaning the Treasury would be able to control Italy's third biggest bank and its shareholder meetings, or in other words, the bank would be nationalized.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

https://www.swissamerica.com/offer/thesecretwar2.php

Snippet: So, who is behind the “War on Cash?” The U.S. Government and Federal Reserve are fighting against cash on many fronts. Banks must now report cash withdrawal or deposit of $10,000 or more.

Banks must report to the government any financial behavior on your part it deems “suspicious” or “unusual.”
A larger, logical government motive in going after cash is tax evasion. An estimated 18% of total reportable income in the United States is effectively off the books.


* Under threat of regulatory punishment, banks must now spy on you for the government.
* Our government has made it risky to carry cash due to tougher asset forfeiture laws.
* “Operation Choke Point” targets 30 types of businesses labeled as “high-risk”.
* In a cashless future it will become much easier for the government to rob you.
* Cash could also be killed fighting global "currency wars" launched by China.

The Wrap Up - Nightly

https://yragharris.com/2016/12/06/bannon/

The following article from above says it ALL for my Wrap Up.

Snippet:

Even though Steve Bannon is no Beau Brummel, the music of this early rock song must be ringing in his ears. It seems clear to all but the dumbest media talking heads that the Bannon plan of Trumps continued flow of tweeting is an attempt to make sure the Trump team controls the NARRATIVE. (See Ben Hunts magnificent piece at Epsilon about the significance of narrative.) This is important for investors and traders because of Trumps ability to control the narrative makes us all focus away from the most events of the greatest possible consequence. Today, the airwaves were echoing the Trump tweet of the President-elect threatening to cancel the orders for two new Air Force One planes, the Presidents personal fleet.

The Donald tweeted that the planes were far too costly and Boeing was gouging the U.S. government. The Trump tweet followed criticism from Boeing executives about the negative impact that Trumps foreign and trade policy could have with Boeings business with China. In predictable fashion, the media took the bait of the excessive pricing of Air Force One and failed to delve deeper into the trade concerns of Boeing and others. As Jon of Vine Street consistently says: It just a three card Monte game, but that is a game in which the dealer certainly controls the narrative. This is going to be the setting for investors so I warn that it becomes mandatory to not lose focus on the important issues as the tweeter-in-chief tells us to look over there.
To the main stream media, Steve Bannon was heard singing:
Laugh, laugh, I though Id die
It seemed so funny to me
Laugh, laugh, you met a guy
Who taught you how it feels to be
Lonely, oh, so lonely

***Now for things to focus upon: The Italian referendum was defeated by a huge margin in what was a heavy turnout. The Italian media had noted that increased percentage of voters would favor the YES outcome as young people would support Prime Minister Renzi. WRONG AGAIN! It seems that young voters were heavily opposed to the reform measures of promoted by the Italian prime minster. This has to be a concern for the euro elite for they tried to spin the narrative of Brexit as the old versus the young. The younger voters who are a more enlightened and global-oriented constituency didnt turnout in large enough numbers and therefore BREXIT prevailed.

However, as I cautioned, a Renzi defeat would be beneficial for the sitting prime minister as Merkel, Juncker and Mario Draghi would increase aid to the Italian government in an effort to bolster Renzi. Eurogroup President Jeron Dijsselbloem maintained yesterday that Italy couldnt be EXPECTED to meet its 2017 budgetary commitments. A Reuters article quoted Dijsselbloem: Italy needs to take necessary measures to reduce its debt but it is impossible for now to demand more from the country given its current political uncertainty.

Wow, I wonder how the Greeks feel upon hearing this from the Captain Javert of Greek austerity enforcement. Besides mercy from Brussels, Mario Draghi is actively purchasing massive amounts of Italian debt, trying to crush the yield differential between Germany and Italy. This is pure market manipulation by a man with a PRINTING PRESS. But the outcome of the ECBs actions and forbearance by Brussels has been a positive for the Italian stock market, except for the beleaguered banks. The problems of Italy are still there regardless of how much sovereign debt the ECB buys. Draghi is just making it harder for the Germans to say NO to its EU partners when it comes to debt sharing. The significance of the ECB and Brussels reaction function to the Italian referendum will be revealed at Thursdays ECB meeting.

Some analysts believe that the ECB may announce a TAPERING of ITS QE purchases. I am highly skeptical of such an outcome. Mario Draghi will probably extend QE to the end of September from March, or increase the purchases from the current 80 billion euros a month. A more difficult proposition for Draghi would be undertaking the buying of bank debt, which is currently not allowed, but under the legal direction of the ECJ, anything that preserves the EURO and the EU is allowed under EC law.

In the current political situation there will be no ECB TAPERING. The ECB meeting will also reveal how much dissension there is from the German wing of the ECB board. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann was talking today about the need for structural reform and fiscal policy to deal with weak growth. Continuation of liquidity providing should not be the sole agent of economic growth. Even thought his an official blackout period it reflects the unease of Germany with the ECB QE program.

***This was not tweeted: There is a vast difference of opinion between U.S. banks and EU banks on regulatory rules. In a Financial Times article, US Banks Face Clash With EU Over Plan For Holding Groups, it seems that EU regulators are proposing rules for the large U.S. money center banks that are in direct contravention of U.S. regulations. This seems to be a retaliatory move in response to U.S. regulators pursuing higher capital ratio rules for foreign banks with U.S. subsidiaries. This will push U.S. dollar-based funding higher as capital will not be available for currency swaps. Oh, but I will wait for Donald to tweet it before it gains any traction in the media. Laugh, laugh Im beginning to cry.

***The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate policy tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. CST. The consensus calls for the overnight rate to be kept at 0.50%. I agree with that for things are steady in Canada with oil prices holding at recent elevated levels and the Canadian dollar is fairly stable. The only issue will be if Governor Poloz notes concern about the real estate market running hot, especially with the recent bout of fiscal stimulus from the Trudeau program (influenced by Larry Summers). The Canadian economy may begin running hot so lets see if Poloz signals any forward guidance on future rate hikes. Do you work on Canadian dollar support levels. Be patient and let the alga's work for you.

Snippet:
Oil price surge and improving conditions to keep interest rate on hold
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its rate statement on Wednesday, December 7 at 10:00 am EST. The central bank is not expected to update its benchmark rate from 0.50 percent. Recovering oil prices thanks to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut agreement and improving Canadian data will help the BoC remain on the sidelines in the last meeting of 2016.
BoC governor Stephen Poloz was proactive in 2015 with two rate cuts ahead of further drops in oil prices that were forecasted to have a negative effect in the Canadian economy. Poloz was right and his decision softened the blow somewhat, but energy prices kept dropping, specially in the start of 2016 as a supply glut threatened to keep the price of crude in free fall. Saudi Arabia and Russia proposed an oil production curb agreement, that went to some failed attempts until finally crystallizing in the latest meeting in Vienna.
The weekly release of U.S. oil inventories will be published at 10:30 am EST giving insight into American crude stocks. CAD traders will be on alert as rhetoric from the Bank of Canada and its comments on the impending Fed interest rate hike later this month will be combined with oil stats ahead of the meeting in Vienna with non-OPEC members on Saturday.


https://www.oanda.com/labsds/graph/U...12-06_1d_m.png

The USD/CAD gained 0.19 percent in the last 24 hours. The pair is trading at $1.3286 after the release of Canadian trade data is showing a lack of competitiveness that is negatively impacting exports. The October trade report showed

http://www.marketpulse.com/20161206/...OERxc3M9In0%3D

I am looking for 5 more people to learn how to net 5% a month if they qualify for my trading course. Thank You and Good Night !!!

Morning Thoughts - Daily

Good Morning

My first thoughts this morning are concerning Donald J Trump named today Time's Man of The Year. Before I say another word please read the following article.
http://www.theblaze.com/news/2016/12...ag-in-detroit/

As we can see what President Elect Trump talked about before the vote was accurate. Today I just heard on CNBC that Donald J Trump had sold all his stock holding during June 2016 to avoid all possible conflicts of interest if he won the election on November 8, 2016.

My thought actually has nothing to do with the President Elect. It has to do with our world and ourselves. As we wait to see what the financial markets in North America do today which includes the decision of the Bank of Canada today at 10 AM and the decision of the ECB tomorrow at 7:45 AM and the press conference to be held by Draghi at 8:30 AM in Europe what is so clear to myself and in no way not true is the unacceptable condition of our world. Since the financial meltdown during 2008 and the clear manipulations of the Central Banks in the world we are in a fools paradise and because of globalization we all are now in the same boat as the financial world will reset during 2017.

The TIE IN between Time's Man of the Year and this edition of Morning Thoughts is PERCEPTION and REALITY. Just think about that regardless of your own bias and prejudice which WE all have because we are all human.

The Wrap Up - Nightly

Tomorrow at 7:45 AM EST , the head of the ECB will announce the plans of the ECB to be followed by his press conference at 8:30 AM. There are confirmed reports that Italy will nationalize their third largest bank and oldest in the world over the weekend. This is in conflict with the rules of the ECB. This will lead to questions by the media about this and other important issues. I will be listening too the press conference which sometimes lasts as much as one hour and I expect there to be moves in the markets most affected. USD/JPY held steady today even with the Dow moving up another 300 points or so. I will be looking to see what to do about my 6 open positions. The article below my Wrap UP gets into some of the issues of tomorrow.







Putting the Boot into Italy

By Charles Gave

December 6, 2016

Matteo Renzi has joined a long line of Italian prime ministers who failed to reform their country. This is another way of saying that he could not wave a magic wand and make Italy competitive with Germany. The grim reality is that no Italian leader stood a chance of changing their country once the fateful decision was made to peg its currency to Germanys. At the time of the euros launch in 1999, I argued that the risk profile of Italy would change from being an economy where there was a high probability of many currency devaluations to the certain probability of eventual bankruptcy. Sadly, that moment is not so far away.

The chart below tells the story of Italys recent economic history in two parts, namely, (i) March 1979 to March 1999, and (ii) March 1999 to the present. Italy joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1979 at 443 lira per deutschemark, yet by 1990 frequent devaluations meant that rate had slid to about 750 lira. By the early 1990s, the Bundesbank was overseeing a newly unified German monetary system and in order to fight inflation it had driven real interest rates to 7%. By September 1992 the stresses on the system caused the UK, Sweden and Italy to exit the ERM, which meant another huge currency devaluation, pushing the lira as low as 1250 against the deutschemark, but delivering a huge tourist boom to boot.
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazona...161207_OTB.jpg
Still, from 1979 to 1998 Italian industrial production outpaced that of Germany by more than 10%, while Italian equities outperformed German equivalents by 16% (this indicates that Italian firms were earning a higher return on invested capital than those in Germany).

Then came the euro. By 2003 it was clear that Italy was uncompetitive and subsequently, Italian equities have underperformed German equities by -65%, reversing the previous half centurys pattern when Italian equities outperformed on a total return basis. Similarly, since 2003 Italian factory output has lagged Germanys by 40%.

The diagnosis is simply that Italy has become woefully uncompetitive, and as a result, is not solvent. This much is clear from the perilous state of its banking system, which is always the outcome when banks lend to firms that have been rendered uncompetitive by some reckless central banker. Short of imposing Greek-style slavery on Italy, there is not much hope of solving the problem, but I rather doubt that the Italian electorate will be as patient as its neighbor's across the Ionian sea.
As such, the relationship between Italy and Germany is radically different from that in the 1945-99 era when a natural return toward equilibrium was achieved through exchange rates adjustments. The only possibility on the current trajectory is that the Italian and German economies keep diverging, which is why a normal resolution cannot be achieved.

Hence, an Italian sovereign default of some variety is now a near certainty. While a central bank can address a liquidity problem, it cannot fix a solvency issue, especially one as large as Italys. The only remedial action that can now be taken is to throw good money after bad, which is exactly what I expect Mario Draghi to do, especially as he played such a key facilitators role in getting Italy into the euro system in the first place. Such actions possibly to be announced on Thursday at the European Central Banks policy setting meeting can of course merely postpone the day of reckoning, but will solve absolutely nothing.

The rational approach for investors is to shun Italian financial assets such as bank equities or government bonds until such time as exchange rates are once again market determined prices. This has to be the most well-telegraphed, and now inevitable, national bankruptcy that I have seen in my 45-year career. There is no reason to be dragged under the steam roller as there are many other markets and assets to play in.

Hi Benjamin: what might be the impact of this news on EURUSD and DAX? It seems to me that both of them will crash.

Good Evening

My guess and it is perhaps an educated guess is that the markets will not like what Draghi says about the situation and if he confirms that they will keep buying the bad debts and there is no end in sight well we will see, however the TRUTH is too much in the open for most to see. Sometimes watching the reaction to the news can give you a look into the future however the status quo cannot stand much longer, I will give a report here tomorrow.


All eyes are on Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, a 544-year-old institution that epitomizes the shoddy underwriting that’s plagued so much of Italy’s financial system.

The bank has €27.7 billion in bad loans it’s trying to sell. Monte Paschi has already burned through €12 billion in cash it received from bailouts and share sales over the last few years, and the European Central Bank says it still needs to improve its capital position. Now Monte Paschi is going back to the well again, by preparing to raise €5 billion worth of capital from investors.


Even before the referendum, this was going to be challenging. Now? It may be quixotic. On Dec. 6, Chief Executive Officer Marco Morelli persuaded the bank’s bondholders to swap about €1 billion of subordinated notes for stock, a significant step forward in selling the plan. Stockholders, unlike bondholders, don’t have to be paid back, so trading debt for equity relieves pressure on a balance sheet.

113969783USD/JPY100,00012/5/16 7:48 AM114.321 Mktd102717113001
12/7/16 10:37 PM 113.1311,051.88-8.000.00-17.500.001,026.38Ld102717113001
Total:1,051.88-8.000.00-17.500.001,026.38
Posted at statement period of time:1,051.88-8.000.00-17.500.00

I closed the first of my 6 open positions. On December 5, 2016 , I shorted USD/JPY at 114.321 and my position of $100,000 US of USD/JPY closed at 113.131 on December 7, 2016 at 10:37 PM for a Net Profit of $1026.38 US Dollars. I now have 5 open positions and my two remaining contracts of USD/JPY were entered at 113.076 and 113.099

Stay Tuned !!!

The 5 Minute Chart of USD/JPY
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

Snippet:

Economists highlight good reasons for the ECB to keep buying bonds. The central bank has an inflation target of close to 2% but consumer prices in the Eurozone were only 0.6% higher in November than the same month last year.

Others argue further stimulus isn’t warranted. The eurozone’s economic picture is brighter, with business activity growing at its fastest pace this year in November, according to a survey of manufacturers and service providers.

As Citi strategist Steven Englander notes, nearly half of survey respondents expect ECB to extend QE by 6 months at current EU80b purchasing pace, writing that anything less than that outcome likely to be seen as hawkish and drive an “immediate EUR buying outcome."

1. 20% expect ECB to engage in “serious but limited” tapering
2. Two-thirds of respondents see ECB as being unaffected by Italian referendum

Which confirms Bloomberg's consensus...

1. An announcement that asset purchases will continue until June 2017, or beyond if necessary, at the present pace of 80 billion euros a month (risk: tilted to longer)
2. An increase to the issue limit to address bond scarcity (risk: balanced)
3. No commitment to taper asset purchases (risk: balanced).

And beyond December...

1. A further three-month extension of the asset purchase program to be announced in March 2017 (risk: tilted to longer)
2. Tapering of asset purchases to begin from September 2017 and for the program to end in March 2018 (risk: tilted to longer).

However, the market’s subdued reaction to the Italian referendum may show that investors have become too reliant on the central bank to smooth over the eurozone’s probelms, a factor that may concern some ECB officials.

“I don’t think that [argument] will win the day, but it’s a risk,” said Stefan Isaacs, deputy head of retail fixed income at M&G Investments. It would be “dangerous” for the ECB to pull back before it has succeeded in boosting inflation, Mr. Isaacs said.

As a reminder, last December, the euro jumped more than four cents against the dollar, stocks tumbled and the price of riskier bonds fell after the bank delivered a smaller-than-expected package of stimulus measures.

Finally, as we detailed previously, there is another problem: with the US tightening at a time when demand for US debt will have to stay constant or rise to fund Trump's fiscal stimulus, it would be up to Japan and Europe to provide the "helicopter money" to fund US economic growth as DB explained. Even a small hint that this is going away, and suddenly the Trump stimulus is looking very shaky.

Sure enough, as Reuters admits, some proponents of the extension fear an ill-timed signal about reduced buying in future could heighten market volatility, potentially undoing some of the benefits of the scheme.

To be sure, it is not a done deal yet:
Extending the asset buys would require the ECB to ease some of its self-imposed restrictions, a sensitive debate as most options on the table raise legal or political concerns, facing varying degrees of opposition within the Governing Council.

Still, ECB President Mario Draghi seemed to dismiss those concerns this week, arguing that the program was sufficiently flexible, suggesting that parameter changes would not stand in the way if policymakers opted for the extension.

However, given the current spate of economic and political events, it just may be that a tapering announcement by the ECB is the catalyst that finally blows over the house of cards market that has soared since November 8 on nothing but hope and lack of concrete news.







http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

Good Morning

The ECB does not change rates however it extends Asset Purchases until March 2017 however it TAPERS from 80 Billion to 60 Billion. This will be a surprise to most market observers and the main reaction comes between 8:30 AM EST and 9:00 AM EST when Draghi answers questions at the press conference. Stay Tuned !!

UPDATE: ECB extends QE program until December 2017, will drop purchases to 60 billion euros a month from April

5 Minute Chart of EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

As EUR/USD is dropping as the market right now does not see the news as strong for the EUR/USD for whatever reason USD/JPY is weakening and so I just shorted one $100,000 US Dollar contract at 113.945 so I now am back to three open positions and I see this position with the opportunity to earn another $1000 US in profits with limited risk since I expect shortly a retraction in the Dow which will send USD/JPY towards 112.00.

5 Minute Chart of USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1481197748

https://mishtalk.com/2016/12/07/chin...rols-increase/

Snippet:
China has tightened capital controls a couple of times, but so far, it hasn’t worked.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=299
China’s Foreign Reserves Drop Most in 10 Months
Bloomberg reports China’s Foreign Reserves Drop Most in 10 Months as Yuan Slumps.
Key Points

1. Reserves decreased $69.1 billion to $3.05 trillion in November, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement Wednesday
2. That compares with the median forecast of $3.06 trillion in a Bloomberg survey of economists
3. Decline was biggest since reserves tumbled $99.5 billion in January

US Dollar/Yuan Weekly Chart
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=473
As a result of capital flight, the Yuan has weakened against the dollar.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...tying-its-1929

Snippet:
This is about the same level that the market hit just before the crash of 1929, and is far higher than was seen in 2007, for example, or during the ill-fated boom of the late 1960s. The last time we saw the stock market this expensive on this measure was early in 2002 — just before stocks plummeted.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...208_CAPE_0.jpg

Comparing stock prices to earnings of the past 10 years, rather than just one year, is a metric known on Wall Street as the “cyclically-adjusted” price to earnings ratio, or CAPE. It is also known as the “Shiller” PE, after Yale’s Shiller, who won a Nobel prize for his research into it. His data shows it has been a strong indicator of future stock returns going back to 1871 and the days of President Grant.

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I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or ROI of 5%

CONDITIONS:

(1) You must have been trading for at least one year.
(2) Your methods have not been profitable.
(3) You will invest one hour a day of your time.
(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will email me your user name and password so that I can check your results daily.
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge and at the end of the 30 days I will give you a grade out of 100 HOWEVER your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons that sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD IN ORDER TO HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

Thank You and have a Great Trading Day !!!

Contact Benjamin at [email protected] Thank You and I look forward to hearing from you.

https://mishtalk.com/2016/12/08/drag...-announcement/


https://twitter.com/business/status/...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog...inance-market/


Snippet: The AAOIFI, in collaboration with the World Gold Council (WGC) and Amanie Advisors, has approved what will become known as the Shariah Gold Standard. This is a set of guidelines that will expand the variety and use of gold-based products in Islamic Finance.

As many as 1.6 billion Muslims in the world, 25 per cent of the population, will have far greater access to the gold market than they have since the birth of modern finance, which has been primarily structured towards Western ideals.


More details were announced at the World Islamic Banking Conference including details of the gold products that are likely to be permissible.

The sharia gold standard announced yesterday allows the over 110 million investors in the Islamic world to invest in
a) vaulted gold
b) gold savings plans (such as GoldCore’s GoldSaver)
c) gold certificates
d) physical gold ETFs including “probably” the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded gold (GLD)
e) gold mining shares (within certain Shari’ah parameters)

Good Morning - Morning Thoughts

I want to explain to all forex traders how fundamental knowledge and understanding my Money Flow Method allows you to set up your Trade Plan.

This article explains some of the issues about how and why the Dow is in irrational exuberance land as the Maestro, former FED chairman Greenspan has pointed out in the past.

It is also called animal spirits. There are two main reasons in my opinion why the Dow continues to head higher towards 20,000. One is the larger traders are probably waiting for the end of TAX SELLING so that they can postpone their profits into next year. The other reason appears to be that the SHEEP, the general public has jumped on the TRUMP TRAIN. We all now how that ends in the game of Musical Chairs.

How are these thoughts and opinions tied together to develop your Trade Plan ?

Here is what I do. I know that when the Dow reverses the MONEY FLOWS out of the Dow into other Asset Classes. There always is MONEY flowing into the safe trade currency of USD/JPY and so knowing this in advance my Trade Plan that I am focused on is to short USD/JPY because I now know the DIRECTION of the Short Term Trend. NO TECHNICAL INDICATOR can tell me this however of course I use technical indicators to decide my Entry and Exit.

I then use my PERFECTED Risk Management Strategy to limit my risks to NO MORE than 5% of my Trading Capital.

I would be glad to teach anyone here how to use this proven Money Flow Method as I have offered here before. I will as I have done with my Initial $50,000 Demo Account continue to follow this Trade Plan and post the results here on my Money Flow Thread.


Benjamin



http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...-2000-and-2007

Snippet:
Are We Being Set Up For A Crash? Stocks Hit A Level Only Seen During The Bubbles Of 1929, 2000 And 2007

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...icons/user.gif By Michael Snyder, on December 8th, 2016.

Right now, the U.S. stock market is surging, with the Dow leaping toward 20,000, a number rooted in fiscal insanity and delusional expectations. There are no fundamentals that support a 20,000 Dow, but fundamentals have long since ceased to matter in a financial world hyperventilating on debt fumes while hallucinating about utopian economic models that will soon prove to generate fools instead of real wealth.


Today I’m going on the record with a prediction that I’ll offer with near absolute certainty: The rigged markets that now seem to defy gravity will be deliberately and destructively imploded under President Trump for all the obvious reasons. There will be financial chaos like we’ve never seen before: Investors leaping off tall buildings, banks declaring extended “holidays” that freeze transactions, and California pensioners slitting their wrists after they discover their promised pension funds were just vaporized by incompetent bureaucrats.

On the other hand, there are others that believe that Trump is just walking into a very bad situation and that a crash would be inevitable no matter who was president.

History tells us that there is no possible way that stock prices can stay at this irrational level indefinitely. But for now a wave of optimism is sweeping the nation, and many of those that are caught up in it will get seriously angry with you if you try to inject a dose of reality into the conversation.

But like I said yesterday, let’s hope that the optimists are correct. A survey that was just taken of 600 business executives found that 62 percent of them were optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next 12 months.

Incredibly, that number was sitting at just 38 percent the previous quarter.
For the moment, business leaders seem to be quite thrilled that we have a business executive in the White House.

https://matasii.com/in-depth-the-soo...ro-experiment/

Snippet:
We foresee a steady sequential set of highly charged political events throughout Europe coming in 2017 which portends of mounting political instability and social unrest.

https://matasii.com/wp-content/uploa...1108_elect.jpg

Souring social mood, loss of purchasing power, stagnating wages, rising inequality, devaluing currencies, rising debt, political polarization and elite disunity are all manifestations of a phase Charles Smith and I labeled as the "Dis-Integrative Winter" in our analysis of long wave cycles: CYCLES - ANTI-GLOBALIZATION & THE END OF THE DEBT SUPER CYCLE.

There is a "Dis-integrative Winter" stage to all of our cycles.

AN INCREASE IN NATIONALISM & A REVERSAL IN THE GLOBALIZATION TREND

The EU Experiment is also facing something completely unexpected but tremendously important. A shift globally away from Globalization and towards Nationalism - exactly the wrong development for the experiment to move in the direction it requires to have any possibility of success.

FX Weekly Outlook & Strategy, 12th to 16th December

16:30 (GMT) 09 Dec

[Forex Strategy]
FX MMKT Weekly Outlook and Strategy, 9th to 16th December

At last .... The FOMC is set for another December hike - but what's next?
It's beginning to look a lot like year-end
The last week:
"Oh yes it is ... oh no it's not!" Is that tapering at the ECB ....

The ECB policy decision was far and away the highlight of the week, policy rates left unchanged but some shuffling of the AEP with a shift to smaller sums (EUR60bn a month from EUR80bn from the end of March) but a commitment to continue to at least the end of the year from the previous one to September. The algo traders immediately smelt tapering and took EUR/USD up to 1.0872 before the realisation dawned that the ECB would actually be putting more money into the market in absolute terms and we saw a rapid reverse to test below 1.0600! ECB President Draghi was at pains to emphasise that tapering had not been discussed at the meeting, though the debate as to whether it is happening anyway looks set to endure.


The bank warned that risks are still to the downside, gave us some fairly low inflation forecasts, and the deposit rate condition was removed. However, while the market might accept that the message is dovish despite not being convinced that we are not seeing tapering, EUR/USD could not match the lows seen earlier in the week on the Italian referendum result and the 1.05/1.15 range that has been in force for almost two years remains in place.

That Renzi would lose the Italian referendum was always likely and while traders in Asia got excited the reception in Europe was altogether more sanguine. There was better news for Europhiles as the right wing challenge for the Austrian presidency was finally seen off.

Central bank decisions elsewhere saw both the RBA and BoC on hold, Australia seeing some much weaker than expected Q3 GDP data a day after the decision (-0.5% q/q vs expectations of close to flat). The CAD proved the most popular of the main commodity trio despite crude failing to push on after the previous week's gains, although it was a struggle to keep USD/CAD below 1.3200 for any length of time. AUD/USD was happy to trade up and down the .74 handle for most of the week, while the NZD got something of a boost as it looks as if FinMin English is a shoo-in for Prime Minister, though AUD/NZD has been unable to hold below 1.0400.

5 Minute Chart Euro / US Dollar
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5