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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,361
  • Dec 5, 2016 9:43pm Dec 5, 2016 9:43pm
NFLX post earnings, double fly, max return is 3x, 2x is doable across a wide range in the week before expiry....not worth waiting for, would have been ok at about 1/2 the debit....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,362
  • Dec 5, 2016 10:11pm Dec 5, 2016 10:11pm
wide DC can work but needs a sharp run-up in the iv's, as modeled I am showing +10%....and of course the u/l needs to move well. I lost money on these in the last earnings round because nothing was moving much, market was dead in the water for volatility
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,363
  • Dec 6, 2016 12:12pm Dec 6, 2016 12:12pm
Hi Fool, Lots of activity in NVDA, any strategies in mind? Thx in advance
  • #14,364
  • Edited 2:02pm Dec 6, 2016 12:52pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting charron
Hi Fool, Lots of activity in NVDA, any strategies in mind? Thx in advance
looks like it popped well the last ER, but no, I'm not fishing in a wide range of names, I just don't have the time. I am more about trading broad market moves thru SPX and SPY, VIX derivatives, etc.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,365
  • Dec 6, 2016 5:18pm Dec 6, 2016 5:18pm
Say, Fool -- you responsible for that vol crush these past coupla? Aggravatin' ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,366
  • Dec 6, 2016 5:22pm Dec 6, 2016 5:22pm
Tried to get a VIX broken wing long call butterfly with a BE of 11.80 filled today ... . Markets were having none of that, so no fillee ... . Laziness dictates that I not leg into these ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,367
  • Dec 6, 2016 6:12pm Dec 6, 2016 6:12pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Say, Fool -- you responsible for that vol crush these past coupla? Aggravatin' ... .
nobody ever accused me of being responsible. I'm not filling much this week so far. I have some things running for FOMC week. hope to see some vol come in right around that - a dip to btf, what else?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,368
  • Dec 6, 2016 7:53pm Dec 6, 2016 7:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}nobody ever accused me of being responsible. I'm not filling much this week so far. I have some things running for FOMC week. hope to see some vol come in right around that - a dip to btf, what else?
I did a "few things," but want to keep stuff on the light side running into FOMC. That whole "dry powder" thang ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,369
  • Edited 8:15pm Dec 6, 2016 8:00pm | Edited 8:15pm
zeebs I ain't traded NUGT in many moons, checked it now and they have 20c strikes! Izzat whacky or what? Playin around with them....gold idk if it will bounce but I think it should in Q1...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,370
  • Dec 7, 2016 3:29pm Dec 7, 2016 3:29pm
Some of my 2c options trades are doing ok. I had a pile of XLF Dec23 $25 long calls, in for 2c out for 8c today. Prolly would've paid to wait for a dime but tick tock. I have Feb XLF long calls somewhere with a better shot at glory.

Also have SPY Dec16/Dec21 $25 calendar calls, bot for 2c, looks like those are worth 14c today....just need the spoos to hold steady with the bull run, could easily net 10bag on those if it will....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,371
  • Dec 7, 2016 10:00pm Dec 7, 2016 10:00pm
Quoting The Fool
zeebs I ain't traded NUGT in many moons, checked it now and they have 20c strikes! Izzat whacky or what? Playin around with them....gold idk if it will bounce but I think it should in Q1... {image}
It's a fun thing to play with, tbh. Small enough not to leave too large a mark ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,372
  • Dec 8, 2016 12:58am Dec 8, 2016 12:58am
a bet we will get a little vol pop FOMC week, the mid today more like 13c, will see if that can slide down
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,373
  • Dec 8, 2016 1:43am Dec 8, 2016 1:43am
Same idea, following week fly
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,374
  • Edited 2:13am Dec 8, 2016 1:49am | Edited 2:13am
Freakin GS, huge pop post election, another ex-dividend, a little selling last Friday, but you'd think a little more, a healthy pullback will be due soon...looking at the Dec30 $222.5/220 put vert for cheap
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,375
  • Dec 8, 2016 11:55am Dec 8, 2016 11:55am
Quoting The Fool
Some of my 2c options trades are doing ok. I had a pile of XLF Dec23 $25 long calls, in for 2c out for 8c today. Prolly would've paid to wait for a dime but tick tock. I have Feb XLF long calls somewhere with a better shot at glory.
Feb XLF $25 long calls in at 7c out at 29c, I am raising cash....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,376
  • Edited Dec 9, 2016 2:08am Dec 8, 2016 10:37pm | Edited Dec 9, 2016 2:08am
SPX has jetted past all of my early-mid Dec targets except 2250, where I have Dec16/Dec21 (SPY $225) calendar calls....likely will close those tomorrow if SPY flatlines. I hope to see a bit of a pullback to 2,200 or lower......if next week's FOMC is a repeat of last December's, maybe we can get that and a little more.....so I will be shopping SPX put verts for end week next week and maybe into the following week.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,377
  • Dec 9, 2016 3:16pm Dec 9, 2016 3:16pm
Quoting The Fool
....so I will be shopping SPX put verts for end week next week and maybe into the following week. {image}
not much new, filled a SPX put vert, Dec16 $2350/2300....for 80c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,378
  • Dec 9, 2016 8:07pm Dec 9, 2016 8:07pm
can the FOMC pop some vol?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,379
  • Dec 9, 2016 9:33pm Dec 9, 2016 9:33pm
TF's Kwazy Kombos
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,380
  • Dec 11, 2016 10:07pm Dec 11, 2016 10:07pm
/cl bouncing $2.5 should feed bull equities right up to FOMC day
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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