Revert to the Mean

And another sell. that's 7

And I was worried this first day with the strategy would be a perfect day and I would get spoiled. Ha Ha Ha
the trade from Hell.
the buy was good early on... almost a100 pips
But then I got stuck selling in a huge up day candle
There was some damage control.. so the day overall was a loss.
But this was one of those extra ordinary huge candle days.
and if the damage was this minimal on the worst day ever...
Then I am really enthusiastic to set up again tomorrow.
Have to be up at 1:30 am to get in on London.

up at 1:30... am going from mode of ignorance... sleep sleep sleep to mode of passion..
anyway..
entered short few minutes after London open.
Could have waited it was not quite the right time..
also entered buy as a true buy signal came a few minutes later.
exit loss for sell is about 10 pips away
exit gain for buy is at the opposite band.
looking for further of trend down...

Should not have entered sell there. I knew it but I did it anyway.
There was no signal and it was only a minute or two after London open.
The rest of the day to get it right..
The buy signal was a proper signal. If prices go to opposite band I do not sell since it would be also a buy signal but rather then the stop loss would be at the 200 sma and it could be seen as a the start of a new uptrend. I would have opened early.

I might be crazy but the London Open should be in 30 mins, unless I am mixed up due to daylight saving time or something.

Makes more sense to close the buy here for net gain for the day so far.
If prices give a buy signal I will start over fresh for an uptrend.

Could have stayed in the buy...
Opened a new buy with stop at the 200
wonder if this is a legitimate signal
Would a true buy signal be after the first pull back to close inside the band?
Will watch how the price action develops..

Second time today... took a position without a legitimate signal.
The buy signal is when prices close inside the band after being outside the band for the first time. The stop will not be so large as the 200sma will have moved closer.
Closed it for a small gain and will wait.
If there is an uptrend the 2nd time prices close in side the band is a sell.

Back in buy first close inside the band...
Looks like I bought a head shoulders down developing...
oh well. looks can be deceiving...

Head and and shoulders and a double top... talk about bearish..
But I am not trading patterns. Stopped out at the 200.
Looks like one of those dhoji days. Up, down and back to the middle.
After yesterday's huge up day.
Maybe I should just forget it today?
But you never know what will happen in the market.
Am more or less back to break even.
If there is another signal I'll take it.

Here's the day candle so far
Certainly becoming more and more familiar with market action.

I think they go stop hunting..
This happened yesterday too...
Someone has code for a hidden stop...
I'm going to try to find it.

Hedged.
bias down.
If goes up... sell stops out at 200 sma
buy is good. Let it run
If heads down... sell is good let it run add buys at signals for revert to the mean.
1st buy is a loss but net gain

London was 2 good trades and 2 bad trades... just about break even.
NY open had 1 bad trade and three good trades but I didn't take them... I have decided only to trade London since opening a trade during NY can run over night or very late in the day. It can happen with London too, but not as likely.
Up again tomorrow at 1:30 am.
It's actually really nice getting up early like that.
I need to work on patience and just letting the price action do what it does.
Tendency to second guess is so strong. And is always!!!! wrong even if it's right...

Trying to catch a ride.
4 small losses..
I need to place the stop loss slightly away from the 200sma.
Or maybe use an ea on the computer that does not go to the broker.
This is the third time stop hunting has spoiled the trade.
I guess they see the order and fill it.
But from what I hear they actually shop for the stops.
I mean go out of their way to steal from their clients.

Today looked like a dhoji day at least during London.
London was brutal.
Signals for buy all stopped out
Signals for sell all stopped out
as the prices swung back and forth between the bands all morning.
With no way to know for sure if it would break out I took allthe singals.
Small losses but several of them.
I am thinking to use hedging all the time. Since there is no sure way to tell if it is a sell or a buy. But it is definitely a signal for one of them.
The sells have a different target than the buys.
It's not a stop and reverse.
So either the trend trade will come a winner with target the 200sma. and they both are closed at the 200sma
Or the revert to the trend trade will come out the winner and they can both be closed at the opposite band.

Entered short in not quite the right way, but it will do for now.
It's trending so there will be one long position and multiple short positions.
I should look to close the long at the 200sma..
and wait to close the shorts at the opposite band.
I think that's the way to do it.

If it was revert trade
the long would short out at the 200 and there would be only one short and that would wait to close at the opposite band.

I think that's it.

All those losers this morning would be winners.

I always have to learn the hard way.

Little sloppy. The entries. But it will do.
The further along in the trend the short positions can be weighted.
Slightly larger as the trend goes.
After big push in the trend enter the revert trade no need to wait for a close inside the bands. But it should be a very big push. I know it will close inside the bands at some point and it may be possible to enter a better position by not waiting.
But it should be a phenomenal push.

The long stopped out for a small gain.
Now all the shorts are looking for a close at or near the lower bb.
the bands will tighten so the lower band will come in closer.
Highly unlikely the market will go higher today. But you never know for sure.

Referring to the day candle is helpful...