Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

Nikkei Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 11.18.2016

Short Term Elliott wave cycles suggests that decline to 16140 ended wave (X). Rally from there is unfolding as double three where wave W ended at 17635 and wave X ended at 17291. Near term focus is on 18207 – 18427 area to complete wave ((w)), then it should pullback in wave ((x)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 11/11 low (17291) before turning higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect dips to be supported in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 11/11 low (17291) remains intact in the first degree.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

Trade Selection Process using Elliott Wave Theory

Many traders overlook the process of selecting the right instruments to trade. Trading is a process which requires a lot of discipline and a good technique to be consistently profitable. Selection is one of the aspects which can define the life of a trader because without the right selection process, most traders are going to have a very short life.
Selection, by definition, is the process / action of carefully choosing someone or something as being the best or most suitable scenario and that simple concept can be applied to trading as well. Most traders fall in love with trading one instrument or one group of instruments among the whole market spectrum. Reality is that the market is made up for different groups and each group can have different instrument in it. Even though, we believe there is just one market as a whole but still not every single structure or sequence is always clear and there is a stage in the market which is called sideways. An instrument can be trending and following either a bullish or bearish sequence and another instrument from the same group could be sideways at the same time.
If you pick an instrument to trade within a group but it is the one which is sideways, then your trading results would suffer and you wont be able to benefit from your ideas even when your idea of direction is correct. At Elliottwave-Forecast, we trade based in sequences, cycles, distribution and other tools that we developed combined with Elliott wave theory. The idea is that we scan 50+ instruments every single day and what we do as traders is to pick the instrument showing an incomplete sequence and it could be a different instrument every day rather than trading the same instrument every day. This selection process allows us to be more profitable and make more money for the risk that we take. Every trader needs to understand that when you trade, you are taking a side and taking sides comes with risk involved. A trader always needs to find ways to make the most return for the money they put at risk because no one can win all the trades. There will always be losses which we need to minimise as traders and maximise the returns using a good risk / reward ratio.
Using this concept, a trader needs to filter every decision, in other words, every plan is going to pass through a filter that is called the selection process. Elliott wave is a great tool to trade but if we use Elliott wave combined with the selection process presented here, we can come up with simple steps that is going to make us better traders. Steps are as follows:
1. Look at as many instrument as you can
2. Spot incomplete sequences in 3, 7 and 11 and so on OR 5, 9 and 13 and so on
3. Use different times frames to locate the trend.
4. Trade the sequence and cycles with the trend.
5. Look at the crosses to be able to locate which instrument (currency is likely to perform better)
Read the full article here

EURGBP forecasting the decline into the Election day

In this technical blog we are going to take a quick look at the $EURGBP 4 hour chart dated: 7th of November 2016. Pair since the October 7th peak (0.9224) was showing lower lows & lower highs, also was missing the extreme from the peak favored another push lower in the pair to happens to complete the 7 swing Elliott wave bearish swing sequence. It is important to note that W,X,Y in red has internal subdivision of (3,3,3) in each swing, which means all of the these 3 legs were corrective sequence in nature. Thus the idea was to selling the short term bounces in the pair labelled as wave (x) in blue in sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings against (0.9048) for potentially downside target at (0.8778-0.8691) 100%-123.6% extension area from the peak. Read the full article here

Facebook Inc potential short-term Elliott Wave scenario

Hello fellow traders, in this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the short term structure of Facebook’s shares price.
Facebook began selling stocks to the public in May 2012, as a part of Nasdaq stock exchange with initial price of $38 per share. Eventyaly, the market developed a strong, 3-year-old bullish trend, where every pull back kept finding buyers at 23%-38.2% Fibonacci retracement area against the all-time lows. Today Facebook is the most popular social networking site in the world based on the number of active user accounts with current market price of $116.95 per share.
The chart below presents potential short term scenario

In general, weekly trend remains bullish. There are no confirmations yet that large cycle has ended and decline from the November 24th high looks like it can be unfolding as a classic Elliott Wave ABC correction. Read the full article here

Gold (XAUAUD) Elliott Wave Analysis calling for 2220

In February 2016, we spotted 5 swings up from April 2013 low in Gold (XAUAUD) and argued that by the time it completed 7 swings up from April 2013 low, it would have almost broken above August 2011 peak which will make the weekly sequence bullish. In 2nd quarter of 2016, we saw Gold (XAUAUD) making a new high all time high by breaking above August 2011 peak. With this new high, metal is showing 5 swings up from 2008 low which is a bullish sequence and opens extension higher towards 2220 2441 area which is our target for the 2008 cycle to complete or at least the 2013 cycle in case it later turned into a leading diagonal or a triple three structure.
Gold (XAUAUD) Weekly Chart 11.21.2016
Chart below shows 5 swings up from 2008 low which is an incomplete sequence to the upside and is bullish against April 2013 low (1280) for a target of 2220 2441 Read the full article here

Nikkei Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 11.23.2016

Short Term Elliott wave cycles suggests that decline to 16140 ended wave (X). Rally from there is unfolding as double three where wave W ended at 17635 and wave X ended at 17291. Near term focus is on 18205 – 18425 area to complete wave ((w)), then it should pullback in wave ((x)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 11/11 low (17291) before turning higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect dips to be supported in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 11/11 low (17291) remains intact in the first degree.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

Trump Reflation Trade

The past decade has seen massive reliance on Monetary Policy by Central Bank to maintain economic momentum, but not enough Fiscal Policy or stimulative government intervention. The election of Donald Trump as the new U.S. president is thought to change that. In his first speech as president-elect, Mr. Trump highlighted investment in infrastructure, reinforcing the shift to fiscal stimulus in 2017. The prospect of expansionary policy – fiscal spending and tax cuts helped calm financial market. There was a rotation out of bonds with global bond markets selling off nearly $2 trillion and 10 year Treasury yield rose 20 bps to 2.35% on expectation that increased US government spending could lead to higher inflation.
10-year Treasury Yield


Besides the rising yields, global equity markets also see the inflow of funds. The US equity ETFs took US$34 billion of inflow and American Indices reached all-time highs. In addition, the US$ has strengthened and reached 13 year high, while commodities also rally. Driven by rising PMI across all regions, we also see big move in the commodity sectors this year. Read the full article here

Nikkei Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 11.24.2016

Short Term Elliott wave cycles suggests that decline to 16140 ended wave (X). Rally from there is unfolding as double three where wave W ended at 17635 and wave X ended at 17291. Near term, wave ((w)) is expected to complete at 18421 – 18581 area, and index should ideally pullback in wave ((x)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 11/11 low (17291) before turning higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect dips to be supported in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 11/11 low (17291) remains intact in the first degree.



At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

We conducted a Free Educational Elliott Wave Educational Seminar on Wednesday, 23rd November 2016. If you missed the seminar, you can watch the recording.

In the seminar you will learn about Elliott Wave Principle, the basic rules, Elliott Wave structures and how to trade some of those Elliott Wave Structures. If you like the seminar, we have more advanced level seminar recordings available to purchase here.

Time to Take some Profits in American Express ( AXP )

American Express

There was no market crash after the US Election results , Trump Rally thats what everybody is calling it as US indices and US Dollar surged higher doing the best rally that market have seen in years with many instruments hitting new all time highs like ( SPX & DJIA ) and others making multi-years new highs . Its almost green all over the stock market and investors are still hungry for more gains , so with the flow of money popping everywhere the financial sector saw its largest 2-week gain since Aug 09 with bank stocks outperforming any other post-election period for a first term president .
American Express Co. ( NYSE:AXP ) shares made a new 52-week high managed to recover the loss seen early this year , AXP which represents 2% of the XLF ( Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ) is only up +6.8% for this year which isnt much compared to other financial corporations that managed +20% and some of them like JP Morgan & Berkshire Hathaway is hitting new all time highs .
The weekly chart of AXP showing that the stock is still correcting the cycle from 2014 peak 96.24 and currently reaching an extreme area ( 73.16 84.86 ) where it should be ending 3 swings from February low 50.27 and starts pulling back to correct that cycle . Then depending of the nature and speed of the first 3 waves correction we could be able to identify the next path for the stock : either resuming higher as a double three or triple three to continue the upside move or it has ended the recover and starting the next leg to the downside . Read the full article

USDNOK Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 11.29.2016

Short Term Elliott wave cycles suggests that rally to 8.641 ended wave 3 and wave 4 pullback is in progress to correct cycle from 11/7 low (8.135) before turning higher. Internal structure of wave 4 is unfolding in a double three where wave ((w)) ended at 8.501 and wave ((x)) ended at 8.592. Near term, while pair stays below 8.592, and more importantly below 8.641, expect more downside within wave ((y)) of 4 towards 8.484 – 8.505 area initially, followed by 8.418 – 8.451 area to end wave 4. Afterwards, pair is expected to resume higher as far as pivot at 11/7 low (8.135) remains intact. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect pullback to find buyers at 8.418 – 8.451 area for at least a 3 waves bounce.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

SPX and The Presidential Cycles

The Market, for years, has been seen as a reaction to a series of events around the world and how investors react to those events. Without any question, the United States of America presidential election is one of most watched events around the World. We at Elliottwave-Forecast.com, believe in the idea that the Technical trade is able to anticipate the future and we have proved that time and again over the years. Looking at the SPX cycles since the all-time lows, it is very clear how every swing has happened due to a technical reason and had nothing to do with the party in government. All the swings had a lot to do with the cycles and technicals. Let’s start looking at SPX cycles since 1980 which started a Republican period of 12 years in which the Market trended to the upside and the reason for that was a bullish sequences since the all-time low. When Reagan took over, market was showing 3 waves and was in need of wave 4-5 to the upside. Then comes the 1992-93 period, the start of Bill Clinton presidential cycle. At that time, $SPX was showing a high with divergence but looking at how deep the RSI was in previous correction, upside was the path to follow which was also supported by the trend of Human progress, so regardless of who won the Presidential Election in 1992, the Index would have rallied.
Democrats were the ruling party in 1992 and the market rallied. This period saw wave 3 of III and extended until market showed a huge momentum divergence in wave V and ended the cycle from the all time low, or at least a portion of the cycle. By the time that George W . Bush became president, the Market was showing a divergence. Regardless who became president at that time, whether George W. Bush or Al Gore, most likely the Market should have corrected anyway based on the Elliott wave Theory, due to the momentum divergence at the peak and the extension in wave III which negates the idea that the sequence was corrective. During George W. Bush’s presidential term, the Market saw a huge decline, and we believe the Market should have done that no matter which party was in the government as it is the nature of the Market. The decline showed a technical FLAT structure which is a 3-3-5 and took another 8 years period to end. As always, wave C of a FLAT is very strong, and that is what created the 2008 financial crisis. However, the Index was correcting the all-time cycle and ended between the 50%-61% natural area to end the cycle and started the recovery.
At that time, Barack Obama’s presidential term started, and the target was very clear for another 8 year cycle to another natural target which is the 2220 area, which is the target that we’ve been looking for at Elliottwave–forecast.com for the last 6 years. Presidents sometimes take credit for the Market performance when the market is doing good, like Reagan, Clinton and Obama periods. However, in reality it all depends on where the Market stands at the time of the presidential term. George W. Bush took office at the wrong time, and consequently saw a market correction. Now president-elect Donald Trump is taking office at a time in which some sort of correction is due in the Market. At this moment, the degree of correction remains to be seen but Market can correct at least the cycle from 2.12.2016 low, and even from 2009 low which if happening will be the biggest correction we have seen, bigger than the one seen under George W. Bush. As we are reaching the all-time 100% at 2220 area and the Market is showing divergence since the lows at 2009, no matter which candidate won the 2016 election, the Market should not be very friendly. At the end, the Market follows cycles and the history provides the background story for it. As we always said, the idea of trading is anticipating the move. Looking at the chart for an explanation, we can tell how good or bad a president can be for the economic world based on the technical aspect and not which affiliation party and economic agenda. We hope this blog helps you understand better trading looking for anticipation and not for reaction.


Market is constantly moving, therefore, you need someone to help you stay on top of all the changes, be on the right side and help with the Trade selection process. Therefore, we provide the forecasts for 50+ markets from around the globe including Forex, Commodities, World Indices and TNX with 2 Daily Live Analysis Sessions, 24 Hour Chat Room, Live Trading Room & Strategy of the day /week etc, get 14 day Trial (for new members only).

Don’t rush buying MasterCard (MA)

MasterCard shares (NYSE: MA) failed to break above the all-time highs made last month even with the “Trump Rally” which started 3 weeks ago pushing the stock market strongly to the upside , this doesn’t seems to had any impact on MasterCard so with investors looking to cash-out before Christmas and some stocks reaching extremes like American Express that could put pressure on the stock market which can see a healthy pullback .
The technical picture of MA is showing that the stock is doing 3 swings sequence from February lows which already reached its equal legs area at 108.05 and since then MA has been struggling to add new highs , it managed to pullback in 3 waves already which is generally enough to resume the trend but in this case MA still has the possibility to do a double three to correct the cycle from July low toward 50% – 61.8% Fibonacci area ( 97.75 – 95.12 ) which will provide buyers with another opportunity to go Long there meaning either new highs or just a 3 waves bounce .

If MasterCard manage to hold July 2016 pivot in the pullback then the stock could be doing an ending Diagonal in wave (C) of a Flat from August 2015 low which means the last leg higher could reach 113 – 115 area or even extend further toward 120 before a larger pullback is seen . Read the full article

NZDJPY Elliott Waves forecasting the rally & buying the dips

Hello fellow traders, in this technical blog were going to take a quick look at the past Elliott Wave charts of NZDJPY to see how we guided our members through this instrument.
The chart below is $NZDJPY daily update from 11.07.2016 Its suggesting were in the potential pull back X red from the 76.90-78.01 area, before resumes higher again toward target area : 79.81-81.61

Now lets take a look at the short term structures
Since November 08/2016 when the pair broke July 12th peak, we got 5 swings in the cycle from the 06/24 low which was confirmation for our bullish forecast. The day after,short term peak at 77.85 got broken, so we got incomplete bullih sequences in the cycle from the 08/03 low as well. We knew that buyers are going to push the price higher, targeting the 79.8 area. We suggested our members to avoid selling NZDJPY pair and advised buying dips in the ((x)) black pull back against the 73.66 pivot. Eventually, wave ((x)) pull back has reached proposed entry area (75.77-75.27 ), and so far it made rally of approximately 500 points.
Read the full article here

USDNOK Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 12.2.2016

Revised short Term Elliott wave cycles suggests that rally to 8.641 ended wave 3 and wave 4 pullback is unfolding as a double three where wave ((w)) ended at 8.447, wave ((x)) ended at 8.543 and wave ((y)) of 4 is in progress towards 8.304 – 8.35 area. Near term, while pullbacks stay below wave ((x)) at 8.543, expect the pair to continue lower towards the target above before turning higher. We don’t like selling the pair and expect the pair to find buyers at 8.304 – 8.35 area for at least a 3 waves bounce while the current pullbacks stay above 8.231 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

For 24 hour coverage of this pair and other instrument, check out our 14 day Trial to sample everything we have to offer. We provide 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We offer Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more!

Gold Forecast through Gold-to-Silver Ratio

In this article, we will attempt to do short term and medium term Gold forecast through the chart of Gold-to-Silver ratio. The aftermath of Donald Trumps election initially saw Gold rallying 5% on Nov 9, only to be completely reversed. Since then, we saw U.S. Dollars rally accelerated against other major currencies. USD Index made a new 13-year high and Gold has dropped 15.6% from 1375 peak in July 2016 to 1161 low in Dec 2016. Understandably, the question in peoples mind is whether the 4-year-old bear cycle in precious metals from 2011 peak has resumed again.
Before we start the analysis, lets define what Gold-to-Silver ratio is. Gold-to-Silver Ratio mathematically is simply Golds price divided by Silvers price. It is defined as the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold. For example, a gold-to-silver ratio of 71 (at the moment this is written) means it will take 71 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold. Prior to the year of 1900, the Gold-to-Silver ratio ranged around 16, likely because many countries still use Gold and Silver backed currencies at that time. According to geologists, the natural rate is around 18 as theres naturally 18 times more silver in the earths crust than gold. Only in the twentieth century that gold-to-silver ratio has averaged much higher between 47-50 and fluctuated wildly sometimes. When Gold-to-Silver ratio is high, this means that silver is underpriced and has more potential for price acceleration and vice versa. Read the full article here

Chart of Gold-to-Silver Ratio (top) overlaid with chart of Gold (bottom)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Oil Elliott Wave Sequence is Bullish

Oil’s price has been completely crushed in the past 3 years. From $112.2 peak in Aug 2013, Oil’s price dropped 77% until it finally found a support in Feb 2016 at $26. From Feb 2016 low, Oil Elliott wave sequence is showing 5 swing (daily chart below), which suggests that further upside is possible.
Last Wednesday on Nov 30th, oil’s price rose 10% to above $50 in a volatile trade after OPEC members agreed to cut 1.2 million barrels a day from global oil production. This agreement is the first in 8 years since the OPEC members cut their production to support the oil’s price. Oil price has been sagging in the past few years due to the oversupply and glut in the world’s oil market. The oversupply was a deliberate strategy by OPEC members, led by Saudi Arabia, to wage price war against their U.S shale oil rivals. The agreement to cut 1.2 million barrels a day marks a shift in OPEC’s strategy and the the number represents more than 1% of global oil supply. The production cut will be in effect starting from January 1st next year and last for six months.
A successful agreement by the OPEC members also opens up the door for non-OPEC members, notably Russia, to chip in and participate in limiting the production. If Russia can also cut the oil production by 600,000 barrels a day, it will amount to almost 2% of global oil production, far more than what the market expects. However, for oil’s price to continue the rally in the near term, it may depend on the commitment of non-OPEC members, such as Russia, to cut oil output in the next meeting on December 9th.

Oil Elliott wave Sequence is showing 5 swing

Oil Elliott wave sequence from Feb 11 low is showing 5 swing, which suggests that further upside is expected. Please note that we are not referring to 5 waves impulse when we talk about 5 swing. We meant that the number (count) of swing is five.
As far as pivot at Feb 11 low ($26.1) remains intact, oil may see further upside towards $60 area, likely in 2017 to complete a 7 swing structure from Feb 11 low. A break above Oct 19 high ($51.9) will further support this idea. In addition, the structure also looks like an inverse head and shoulder with the head at $26.1 and the left shoulders on Aug 2015 and right shoulder on Aug 2016. The neckline of the inverse head and shoulder is around $52.
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Oil Elliott Wave Forecast 12.6.2016

Short Term Oil Elliott wave forecast suggests that the rally from 11/14 low is unfolding as a double three where wave ((w)) ended at $49.2, wave ((x)) ended at $44.82. and wave ((y)) of W is proposed complete at $52.43. Near term, while bounces stay below there, oil is expected to turn lower within wave X pullback to correct the cycle from 11/14 low ($42.21) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. If Oil breaks above $52.43, then it is still within wave W and can open extension to the upside towards as high as $54 – $55.2 area to complete wave W and end the cycle from 11/14 low before the correction in wave X begins. We don’t like selling the proposed wave X pullback and expect buyers to appear after wave X pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at $42.21 remains intact. 50 – 61.8% fibonacci retracement from 11/14 low which comes at $46.11 – $47.31 can be an approximate area where wave X pullback can complete

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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Oil Elliott Wave Forecast 12.7.2016

Short Term Oil Elliott wave forecast suggests that the rally from 11/14 low is unfolding as a double three where wave ((w)) ended at $49.2, wave ((x)) ended at $44.82. and wave ((y)) of W is proposed complete at $52.43. Down from there, wave (w) ended at $50.28, and while wave (x) bounce stays below $52.43 peak, oil is expected to turn lower within wave X pullback to correct the cycle from 11/14 low ($42.21) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. If Oil breaks above $52.43, then it can do a triple three (WXYZ structure) from 11/14 low and open extension higher. We don’t like selling the proposed wave X pullback and expect buyers to appear after wave X pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 11/14 low ($42.21) remains intact. 50 – 61.8% fibonacci retracement area of the rally from 11/14 low, which comes at $46.11 – $47.31, can be an approximate area where wave X pullback can complete.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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OIL (CL_F) Running Flat Elliott Wave Structure

In this Technical blog we are going to take a look at $CL_F (Oil) running flat structure we had from June’s peak, but before we go there lets talk about what “Running FLAT Elliott Wave structure” looks like. As per Elliott Wave Theory, running FLAT is a 3 wave corrective pattern which could be rarely found in the market. In this structure, internal subdivisions are 3, 3, 5 and labelled A, B, C. Waves A and B can have any type of corrective structures, i.e. zigzag, flat, double three or triple three. Whereas, the C wave is always a 5-wave structure, either a motive impulse or an ending diagonal pattern. It is important to note that in Running Flat Elliott Wave Pattern, wave B terminates well beyond the beginning of wave A as in an expanded flat, but wave C fails to travel its full distance, falling short of the level at which wave A ended, which makes its Running. The running flat wave C is normally completed above the Fibonacci extension 100% -123.6% of A related to B, and then continues with the larger trend or produces a reaction of at least 3 waves (if the larger trend doesn’t resume). Read the full article here