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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,341
  • Dec 1, 2016 11:05pm Dec 1, 2016 11:05pm
i played a SKX Oct/Jan $20/30 double calendar for the Oct earnings......made money on the puts but still in the hole as I recall.....thot the calls were a lost cause...but SKX has fought back and popped >$3.50 on insider buying today....the calls could end up paying well...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,342
  • Dec 1, 2016 11:53pm Dec 1, 2016 11:53pm
Quoting The Fool
Cecil could be right, though - the Naz could be pointing the way. If there is a big NFP miss Friday, it will bring back uncertainty about the Dec FOMC, and the indices could slide right til the FOMC announcement.... {image}
As usual, got my eyeballs peeled watchin' that VIX. It's headed in the "right direction," but, well, we know how these things can go ... . Something like the "Not tonight, honey, I've got a headache" routine ... . I gots some sidelined BP that's waiting to be put to work ... . Seems like no better place than short vol if cooperation is forthcoming.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,343
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:17am Dec 2, 2016 7:17am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} As usual, got my eyeballs peeled watchin' that VIX. It's headed in the "right direction," but, well, we know how these things can go ... . Something like the "Not tonight, honey, I've got a headache" routine ... . I gots some sidelined BP that's waiting to be put to work ... . Seems like no better place than short vol if cooperation is forthcoming.
VIX is right underbeath 50 and 200 day averages, gonna be tough to push through only a a big miss or other news might help. I wasn't looking at the S&P or the VIX before I took my puts on the DIA. Was solely looking or a Daily sell off in the DOW
  • #14,344
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:09am Dec 2, 2016 9:09am
I don't know, to me Dow Jones looks like a Freight train on steroid heading north. with all things like good jobs, 3.2% economy and trump effects, Going short at this point could be suicidal
  • #14,345
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:28am Dec 2, 2016 9:28am
Quoting charron
I don't know, to me Dow Jones looks like a Freight train on steroid heading north. with all things like good jobs, 3.2% economy and trump effects, Going short at this point could be suicidal
only talking about a Friday sell off not a reversal, that will come when the VIX closes below 10
  • #14,346
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:36pm Dec 2, 2016 1:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}GS has blown past the high b/e of my fly. I had good net yesterday. Today, not. I gambled on a little pullback, and it still may come. Thought about exiting when I had good gain, coulda shoulda woulda
profit taking dipped below $222 and I got out of the fly near b/e. Bittersweets...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,347
  • Dec 2, 2016 2:02pm Dec 2, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting charron
I don't know, to me Dow Jones looks like a Freight train on steroid heading north. with all things like good jobs, 3.2% economy and trump effects, Going short at this point could be suicidal
looks like it could use a pullback, but I don't think we will get much of one - just flattish indices these days on profit-taking after this huge Nov bounce. Maybe Ezone election results this weekend will shake things up.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,348
  • Dec 2, 2016 3:04pm Dec 2, 2016 3:04pm
I'd have to bet any more big bull dick action will be in Q1-Q2, and the backslide follows. I am looking in my krystal ball and I say dark clouds over Yourope, out there beyond the French elections, the beginning of the end of the EU....or was it the middle....?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ine&yptr=yahoo

"Bank of America analysts currently have a base case call for the S&P 500 to end 2017 at 2,300, or 5 percent above today’s levels. With this indicator taken into consideration when formulating their outlook, the team’s bull case scenario represents a rapid rise in stocks. “The case for a traditional euphoria-driven end-of-bull-market rally is easy to argue for, and 20 percent or greater annual returns are the historic norm, putting the S&P 500 at 2,700 in our bull case,” they conclude, adding that their bear case calls for stocks to end the year down 27 percent at 1,600."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,349
  • Dec 3, 2016 2:27pm Dec 3, 2016 2:27pm
Hello Fool, Please look at NWSA for Calender Call spreads.
Looks promising, need your input
  • #14,350
  • Dec 3, 2016 4:51pm Dec 3, 2016 4:51pm
Quoting charron
Hello Fool, Please look at NWSA for Calender Call spreads. Looks promising, need your input
what's up with NWSA? My input: I have better things to trade. The options volumes are very thin and I avoid names with little options interest. Also, it does not appear to move much.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,351
  • Dec 3, 2016 10:34pm Dec 3, 2016 10:34pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} VIX is right underbeath 50 and 200 day averages, gonna be tough to push through only a a big miss or other news might help. I wasn't looking at the S&P or the VIX before I took my puts on the DIA. Was solely looking or a Daily sell off in the DOW
Oh, I agree totally ... . I need a pop to 20 before I get jizzed about doing anything, frankly, with VIX/VIX derivs ... . Could dribble around sub-15 for comparative eons.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,352
  • Dec 3, 2016 10:43pm Dec 3, 2016 10:43pm
Quoting charron
Hello Fool, Please look at NWSA for Calender Call spreads. Looks promising, need your input
The universe of comparatively liquid options is, in actuality, quite small. Wandering off into illiquid underlyings with no weeklies, oddball strikes (>$1 wide), and wide bid/asks is basically looking for a headache ... . Believe me, I've dabbled with those, and they're a humungous pain in the ass if you need to roll, adjust, or do anything else you need to do ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,353
  • Dec 5, 2016 1:20am Dec 5, 2016 1:20am
about 1/2 way to next earnings season & I am checking out cheap spreads for some movers...perhaps the FANG's will show well, the AAPL otm verts are cheap as iv's scraping bottom
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,354
  • Dec 5, 2016 2:57pm Dec 5, 2016 2:57pm
waiting for AAPL to settle lower but still looking at Feb call $5 verts, maybe $120/$125 if they go down to $0.40? - looking for AAPL to post gains on strong Xmas sales? OK....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,355
  • Dec 5, 2016 3:18pm Dec 5, 2016 3:18pm
Quoting The Fool
waiting for AAPL to settle lower but still looking at Feb call $5 verts, maybe $120/$125 if they go down to $0.40? - looking for AAPL to post gains on strong Xmas sales? OK....
why not vertical for 125/130 ? They are selling for 0.19
  • #14,356
  • Dec 5, 2016 4:17pm Dec 5, 2016 4:17pm
Quoting charron
why not vertical for 125/130 ? They are selling for 0.19
I'd rather get paid something for a trade with better probability than lose everything on a long-shot. I have not really convinced myself AAPL will rally. There be time to think about it, anyway. Just need to watch the IV rank, go long front while that is bottomed.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,357
  • Dec 5, 2016 4:45pm Dec 5, 2016 4:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd rather get paid something for a trade with better probability than lose everything on a long-shot. I have not really convinced myself AAPL will rally. There be time to think about it, anyway. Just need to watch the IV rank, go long front while that is bottomed.
ok. got it, Thx

have you looked at FB and CSCO? is there any potential there for rally?

FB vertical call 135/140 is selling for 0.35
CSCO Verticle call 32/33 is 0.11 now
  • #14,358
  • Dec 5, 2016 5:26pm Dec 5, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting charron
FB vertical call 135/140 is selling for 0.35 CSCO Verticle call 32/33 is 0.11 now
FB can put on some good outsized moves at earnings, but I would rather spend a little more on $130/$135.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,359
  • Dec 5, 2016 5:30pm Dec 5, 2016 5:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd rather get paid something for a trade with better probability than lose everything on a long-shot. I have not really convinced myself AAPL will rally. There be time to think about it, anyway. Just need to watch the IV rank, go long front while that is bottomed.
On the blue highlight above, I mean I might leg in if I feel we are in a broad market bull move. I want to pay as little as possible for these spreads - so if I go out on a limb and buy the front month, then in a few days the back month comes along in the trend and can be sold for more, the spread gets in my book for less, in the end. It's a gamble, though - could work against you if you don't get that rise....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,360
  • Dec 5, 2016 6:46pm Dec 5, 2016 6:46pm
Quoting The Fool
FB can put on some good outsized moves at earnings, but I would rather spend a little more on $130/$135.
was prolly thinking NFLX when I wrote that, but NFLX options are already getting some juice and are spendier
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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