Trading the US Non-Farm Employment (Predictions) | Forex Factory

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Trading the US Non-Farm Employment (Predictions)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 1:19am Dec 2, 2016 12:13am | Edited 1:19am
US Non-Farm Payroll

Hi all, I wasn't sure if there is a thread on this or not, (couldn't find one) so thought I'd start it.

On this thread please share your prediction for the NFP job numbers.

If you trade the NFP please talk about your system and how you like to trade it.

For me I occasionally trade it depending how it moves and scalp a few quick pips out or it. Or sometimes go in the opposite direction the next open, Monday morning.

Look forward to this discussion.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NFP2.png Size: 491 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #2
  • Edited 1:20am Dec 2, 2016 12:15am | Edited 1:20am
December 2016

My prediction for this month

I think will be above expectations and possibly around 200k

Lets see how it goes.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #3
  • Dec 2, 2016 12:51am Dec 2, 2016 12:51am
December 2016

My prediction for this month

NFP 180K
Unemployment rate 4.8%
  • #4
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:00am Dec 2, 2016 1:00am
I think it will be about 180k - 190k.

And as long as above 160k - I think USD will go up, just not sure if it will stay up for long.
  • #5
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:07am Dec 2, 2016 4:07am
There is a thread about using RSI to predict how EURUSD will move.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #6
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:10am Dec 2, 2016 4:10am
The numbers will be bogus to make Obama look good.
Maybe under Trump we will get something closer to reality.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #7
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:14am Dec 2, 2016 4:14am
Quoting TooSlow
The numbers will be bogus to make Obama look good. Maybe under Trump we will get something closer to reality.
I have the same thoughts.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #8
  • Edited 5:35am Dec 2, 2016 5:09am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting MrsTrader
I think it will be about 180k - 190k. And as long as above 160k - I think USD will go up, just not sure if it will stay up for long.
Are news items anything more than a short term blip?

Ok if you're trading less than the day chart, but the markets always seem to correct and carry on as before

Life would be so much easier if there werent rooms full of commercial traders messing about with the charts lol
  • #9
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:20am Dec 2, 2016 6:20am
In my opinion there may not be any drastic figures than the predictions. Irrespective of the out come of the figures, I am planning to go for uni-directional trading, i.e. either All bullish or all bearish in the USD basket, so that at any time, out of the 7 pairs, I have 3 Bullish & 4 Bearish trades OR 4 Bearish & 3 Bullish Trades, and I am sure of 3( Bullish) or 4(Bearish), as the case may be, trades getting triggered in the right direction and the rest getting untriggered.

I am planning to ge for Bearish outlook for this NFP.

PLEASE COMMENT.
  • #10
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:28am Dec 2, 2016 6:28am
The figures might be around that prediction...But my take, the bull will not go for long as the sentiment are still mixed between buyers and sellers...that's my humble 2 cents right there...
  • #11
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:36am Dec 2, 2016 6:36am
Quoting pandupr2
In my opinion there may not be any drastic figures than the predictions. Irrespective of the out come of the figures, I am planning to go for uni-directional trading, i.e. either All bullish or all bearish in the USD basket, so that at any time, out of the 7 pairs, I have 3 Bullish & 4 Bearish trades OR 4 Bearish & 3 Bullish Trades, and I am sure of 3( Bullish) or 4(Bearish), as the case may be, trades getting triggered in the right direction and the rest getting untriggered. I am planning to ge for Bearish outlook for this NFP. PLEASE COMMENT.
I think unless its under 150k and wage growth in less than forecast I think it will be bullish. It can be possible still, for usd to be sold off first for a better long entry.

My out look for usd is bullish, and anticipating USDX to reach next level at 103.00.
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  • #12
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:58am Dec 2, 2016 6:58am
what pairs move the most for this release?
  • #13
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:09am Dec 2, 2016 7:09am
Quoting zalgbox
what pairs move the most for this release?
I think gold.

But not always will have a big movement, it will depend on the market.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #14
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:19am Dec 2, 2016 7:19am
I straddle trade the NFP. I don't care which way it moves, as long as it goes bunta and not gap.
  • #15
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:37am Dec 2, 2016 7:37am
It took more than 4 minutes for the data to appear at Forex Factory site, but the movement at some MT4 charts started at the release time. In the beginning I was in profits, but closed down with negligible loss.

Best luck next time.
  • #16
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:44am Dec 2, 2016 7:44am
Quoting pandupr2
It took more than 4 minutes for the data to appear at Forex Factory site, but the movement at some MT4 charts started at the release time. In the beginning I was in profits, but closed down with negligible loss. Best luck next time.
The myfx book calender is faster
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  • #17
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:45am Dec 2, 2016 7:45am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I think gold. But not always will have a big movement, it will depend on the market.
Maybe Pay Roll are postponed to Monday... Anybody knows something about this ? ()
  • #18
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:46am Dec 2, 2016 7:46am
Quite mixed data wage growth disappointed the market I think and last months data revised down to 142K.
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  • #19
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:46am Dec 2, 2016 7:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow1.png Size: 44 KB


RSI trade triggered a long.
The dashed lines show divergence between price and RSI.
Shaded area is the 2 hours prior to NFP.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #20
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:48am Dec 2, 2016 7:48am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I think unless its under 150k and wage growth in less than forecast I think it will be bullish. It can be possible still, for usd to be sold off first for a better long entry. My out look for usd is bullish, and anticipating USDX to reach next level at 103.00.
A bit of a sell off lets see if we can get some bullish momentum?
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
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