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The Swamp

  • #10,261
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:18am Dec 1, 2016 10:18am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Looks like 56 brent is at least a possibility here. I remember you considered tweaking that a while back. Still look at the 56? Or you feel target(norm) is met at current highs?
Damned if u, damned if u don't. U.s. shail producers have cut cost almost 50%. At current prices its getting attractive for them to come online. The more they do, the greater the chances.  I can't say absolute. Look back 56.x. Was the norm posted.  I don't have the chart. Its target was 14.x. 
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,262
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:26am Dec 1, 2016 10:26am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} If we clear 115 I can see this going to 117-118
1500 pips w/o retrace is tough
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,263
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:53am Dec 1, 2016 10:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Damned if u, damned if u don't. U.s. shail producers have cut cost almost 50%. At current prices its getting attractive for them to come online. The more they do, the greater the chances. I can't say absolute. Look back 56.x. Was the norm posted. I don't have the chart. Its target was 14.x.
Hey Gator I have the level marked on my charts for quite a while now: 52.96 (might have messed this up) - then 14. Are you saying that as shail producers are starting back up means output will increase = too much oil = price goes down? I mean that is logical indeed but I'm wondering how that aligns with the OPEC deal. Isn't the US somehow supposed to also respect a certain production limits or doesn't the deal apply to US production? Isn't the US producing as much oil as Saudi Arabia in terms of barrels/day (+- 10M barrels)? It would be in their interest to keep prices higher by keeping production lower.

Edit: just found an interesting answer on quora about this last question: https://www.quora.com/Why-is-the-Uni...arney-Packard?
  • #10,264
  • Dec 1, 2016 2:50pm Dec 1, 2016 2:50pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Hey Gator I have the level marked on my charts for quite a while now: 52.96 (might have messed this up) - then 14. Are you saying that as shail producers are starting back up means output will increase = too much oil = price goes down? I mean that is logical indeed but I'm wondering how that aligns with the OPEC deal. Isn't the US somehow supposed to also respect a certain production limits or doesn't the deal apply to US production? Isn't the US producing as much oil as Saudi Arabia in terms of barrels/day (+- 10M barrels)? It would be...
I'm thinking that 52.96 could be the level gator mentioned the norm might should be adjusted to. Think the issue was re: wti/brent spread changing since the set up started but cant remember. Post the chart if you get a chance? I'll try to find the post I'm talking about.

Tp on eu shorts this morning. Between NFP, Italy, ECB, Fed coming I liked that 674 entry less and less. Will wait til Monday to see where it's at.
  • #10,265
  • Dec 1, 2016 3:05pm Dec 1, 2016 3:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
EU still has 129.5 missed norm. If so it may carry EU to higher levels off this db . Uj has reached its norm. Uj bulls may tire
correct=ej 129.5 not]EU
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,266
  • Dec 1, 2016 3:14pm Dec 1, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i was baffled that u/c closed higher on the month end.. that 56 brent target was made before congress allowed u.s. oil exports. the spread between brent and crude was 10ish bucks. now it's 1ish $ +.. i dont know what one to use. a year ago 56 oil would have been 46 wti (with 10$ spread).. between the 2 is 51.. is 51 the old brent 56 smoothed? should i use 51$ in place of 56? i don't know..
Found it. Wasn't the 52.96 I was thinking.
  • #10,267
  • Dec 1, 2016 3:31pm Dec 1, 2016 3:31pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I'm thinking that 52.96 could be the level gator mentioned the norm might should be adjusted to. Think the issue was re: wti/brent spread changing since the set up started but cant remember. Post the chart if you get a chance? I'll try to find the post I'm talking about. Tp on eu shorts this morning. Between NFP, Italy, ECB, Fed coming I liked that 674 entry less and less. Will wait til Monday to see where it's at.
Oh nothing special on the charts, just an ordinary line. I do notice that it has different prices on different timeframes... :s weird! Must be an MT4 flaw of some sorts. I put the line on the W1 chart originally so I'd go from that. Also the level aligns nicely (the resistance "zone" around 53 I mean - not the concrete number 52.96) with the priceaction we have had so far. I hope price can find hard resistance there and reverse to find a fresh lower low.

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*edit: the 52.96 could be a mess up on my part (or MT4?) so don't focus on the exact number. I do remember Gator mentioning this approximate level and taking it back to 14 via the majestic forces of nature.
  • #10,268
  • Dec 1, 2016 3:55pm Dec 1, 2016 3:55pm
Awesome thanks. I wish I could put the levels I use on a futures chart. I'll try to get something together this weekend.
  • #10,269
  • Dec 1, 2016 4:24pm Dec 1, 2016 4:24pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Hey Gator I have the level marked on my charts for quite a while now: 52.96 (might have messed this up) - then 14. Are you saying that as shail producers are starting back up means output will increase = too much oil = price goes down? I mean that is logical indeed but I'm wondering how that aligns with the OPEC deal. Isn't the US somehow supposed to also respect a certain production limits or doesn't the deal apply to US production? Isn't the US producing as much oil as Saudi Arabia in terms of barrels/day (+- 10M barrels)? It would be...
U.s. companies are not legally allowed to fix prices. If u had a drilling lease . u would drill at some point where it looked like reward outweighed risk. Everyone has their own magical number. They don't advertise it. Shale took a nutkick and yet some never stopped drilling.  When prices dropped. Some bought the equipment and leases at firesale pricing. They r now set to produce cheaper then before. Because they paid less.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,270
  • Dec 1, 2016 4:33pm Dec 1, 2016 4:33pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Oh nothing special on the charts, just an ordinary line. I do notice that it has different prices on different timeframes... :s weird! Must be an MT4 flaw of some sorts. I put the line on the W1 chart originally so I'd go from that. Also the level aligns nicely (the resistance "zone" around 53 I mean - not the concrete number 52.96) with the priceaction we have had so far. I hope price can find hard resistance there and reverse to find a fresh lower low. {image} {image} *edit: the 52.96 could be a mess up on my part (or MT4?) so don't focus...
hI eXFORX
Sorry to butt in, I noticed you are on USOIL and Gators 56.xx was for BRENT so your 52.96 level is about right for sure as the difference in price aprox 2.90 $ . But also Gator was thinking the price changes since first targeting 56.xx Brent that the gap has narrowed and may have affected the target to the down side .......

hope it helps and didn't confused or butt to much
  • #10,271
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:10pm Dec 1, 2016 10:10pm
Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #10,272
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:12am Dec 2, 2016 1:12am
Pending SHORT
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #10,273
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:57am Dec 2, 2016 1:57am
seems like 1.08 might be an interesting area....this months pivot, and last months S1, with some resistance....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #10,274
  • Dec 2, 2016 2:58am Dec 2, 2016 2:58am
Quoting nutts
{quote} hI eXFORX Sorry to butt in, I noticed you are on USOIL and Gators 56.xx was for BRENT so your 52.96 level is about right for sure as the difference in price aprox 2.90 $ . But also Gator was thinking the price changes since first targeting 56.xx Brent that the gap has narrowed and may have affected the target to the down side ....... hope it helps and didn't confused or butt to much
Not at all, I appreciate your input, that should explain the price difference. I keep forgetting the meaning and difference of usoil/brent/blend/crude/wti/... something to do with composition / quality but what I understood, was that prices more or less flow the same way. Hope I'm right on that one lol. At least with the gap closing, discussing these types of oil should be less confusing. Thanks for chiming in.
  • #10,275
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:46am Dec 2, 2016 4:46am
Quoting PayTheLimit
seems like 1.08 might be an interesting area....this months pivot, and last months S1, with some resistance.... {image}
Last years close 0865/9× depending on broker 
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,276
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:51am Dec 2, 2016 4:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Last years close 0865/9 depending on brokerÂÂÂ
One reason it could shoot above or not in a micro. ÂÂDb made r/r straight forward. Years end new close comingÂ
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,277
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:57am Dec 2, 2016 4:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} One reason it could shoot above or not in a micro. Db made r/r straight forward. Years end new close coming
interested to see if it bounces higher soon, after 106.20ish today. Towards 108.2x+
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,278
  • Dec 2, 2016 5:06am Dec 2, 2016 5:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} correct=ej 129.5 not]EU
Do you have missing 113.96 for #eurjpy or 115.67 if it drops from here ?
  • #10,279
  • Dec 2, 2016 5:10am Dec 2, 2016 5:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} One reason it could shoot above or not in a micro. Db made r/r straight forward. Years end new close coming
So many brokers with different close levels. Its hard, to get an official one. Than if u take the hour close on Dec.31 est 23:59:59. Later u will find some brokers change it. Some have 0826. Some brokers turn off feed before years end. 
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #10,280
  • Dec 2, 2016 5:12am Dec 2, 2016 5:12am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Do you have missing 113.96 for #eurjpy or 115.67 if it drops from here ?
129.50 ish is the larger I have in mind. But atm like Uj. Ej may need some retrace 115.5ish may be better to long than atm 121.17
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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