It's a one time thing

I myself is not immuned from those epidemic but feel free to disagree, preferably with relevant information & evidence.

My uniform response to personal remarks such as"Blah blah blah" is "Whatever".

What's prevalent in this forum/society:

1. People dishing out emtpy claims with no evidence to back them up whatsoever; they rely too much on System 1-intuition rather than System 2-cognitive function when facing complex social science problems.

Ex. I just decided that you are wrong after 5 seconds of deep thinking and please get out of my face
Google- "Thinking, Fast and Slow"


2. People cannot distinguish real knowlege from superficial knowledge, that is, the difference between procedural knowledge and conceptual knowledge.

Ex. I don't know what I'm talking about but of course I'd like to share my input on Kalman Filters!
Google- "procedural knowledge vs. conceptual knowledge"

3. People were either educated out of their ability to process uncertainy since grade school or it was part of human nature all along; being right, or to hide in certainty is more important than accepting the state of relativity and crescendo culmination


Google- "Taleb books" "Being Right or Making Money"



After the rant, here's a potato...I mean a piece of information for you, ciao.

Attached: Forex Trader Success Rate (Exness)

Cell A18:
https://www.exness.com/monitor/real7_account/9034392

Leverage = 1:4200000000

Seriously???

They have a new policy, "Unlimited" leverage for if account size<$1000, literaly, no margin.

Never heard of unlimited leverages.
It looks a bit strange and shocking. Does the broker wants to help some newbies to blog their accounts? Even one-pip-movement will be fatal there... I have no words man

You gotta give them credit for being creative though, in a twisted way. Other than that, Tyler Durden said it the best, "On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."

For 70 years, what Donold Trump said had almost no direct relationship with the movement of USD/MXN, let alone direct cause. Then coming out of nowhere he entered the presidential race, what he said about Mexico somehow mattered more than any of the previous economic and social factors combined and caused temporary wild swing in this pair.

What does that tell you about correlation & causation?

one of my favorite quotes

Are you highlighting the causal event or arguing that an event is correlation but not necessarily dependent?

And remember rule 1 ... never talk about fight club

There are general & critical lessons to be learned on trading system development from phenomenal events such as this, though I'm not insynuating 1 event caused another despite present of temporal precedence; to prove causation one would need much stringent deterministric process which is often lacking in complex situations involving multiple counterparties(Also the experiment is unrepeatable & no control group).

But, assuming there were causality to be found, then a new, "cause" were created out of thin air. That was the observable one, imagine how many unobservable undiscoverable "causes" were manufactured everyday that Taleb coined the term "Black Swan" to discribe them.

So for me the lesson is this: As a system developer, even though I may have found a causal link between a certain combination of trading rules and acount profitability, all it takes is one distruptive change in the market to render my system useless.

And yes, as a lawabiding anarchist, I do not talk about fight club

Earthquakes come in waves and before the waves come, pressure must be built...Volcanoes errupt after pressure is built as well. When you have gas in your car, you have unused potential energy. When you step on the gas pedal, you convert that potential energy into kinetic. And also let's not forget that each action has equal and opposite reaction...But at the end of the day, we all move around some average. I guess I've had a few extra drinks or maybe it's that THC getting absorbed by my receptors, who knows...