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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #461
  • Nov 21, 2016 3:28pm Nov 21, 2016 3:28pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} My friend I think you are getting me really wrong... but you are not the first one that does. Cheers
Sorry if i was unfair, just read again your post. It could have double meaning, by your answer I understood it was not a critic to Jay, so pardon me sir.
  • #462
  • Nov 21, 2016 3:35pm Nov 21, 2016 3:35pm
Quoting kornrogers
Great analysis as always, thanks Jay. In the long term is being defended in many forums that we'll see eur/usd kissing the weekly trendline at 1.057, and even the parity, for me it's hard to happen if there is no FED rate hike, but if it really does occur, maybe both views are right, and we will see a down move to 1.08 then your's 1.1290 and then 1.05. Here's one of those chart's, with the title, "history repeats..." {image}

Not trying to hijack the thread Jay, but do you believe that the hike is already priced in?
  • #463
  • Nov 26, 2016 11:37am Nov 26, 2016 11:37am
Quoting feline207
So once again, price can obviously do anything disregarding the targets we have. 1000 pips here and there, not harmless for leveraged shor-term traders.
Leveraged short term traders trade short term setups with pre-defined SLs that fit with their MM rules
Leveraged short term traders do not trade medium/long-term setups
  • #464
  • Nov 26, 2016 11:37am Nov 26, 2016 11:37am
Quoting kornrogers
{quote} Not trying to hijack the thread Jay, but do you believe that the hike is already priced in?
Yep, I believe so. A rate hike in Dec shouldn't surprise the market 1 bit, but a 'no rate hike' would be quite a big surprise.
Personally, I would be more interested in their projection for next year.
  • #465
  • Nov 26, 2016 11:38am Nov 26, 2016 11:38am
Quoting FX-Jay
1- AUDNZD: Target remains @ 1.0250 200 more pips to go 2- EURUSD: As discussed, 1.0830 got cleared. One more target to the downside: 1.0547. Will re-evaluate once 1.0547 is cleared if some more downside is to be expected. Targets from the upside remain the same. 3- USDJPY: I've said previously that there is a 95% probability of UJ going below 100 before 110. The most we manged to reach from the downside was 101.20, which means that this high probability setup has been obviously invalidated after we reached 110. Usually this has big implications...
1- AUDNZD:
Nothing changed, not much of movement. Targets remain the same.

2- EURUSD:
1.0547 cleared from the downside.
The last low we had was 1.0517. This is most likely not going to be the bottom, since after clearing 1.0547 a new downside target showed up: 1.0485
It is highly likely that we are going to have a bottom in EU in the short term that will take us back to at least the 1.1350 levels.
Be careful with picking bottoms though, since downside spikes to clear all buyers before a reversal are possible.

3- USDJPY:
Last Tuesday, we finally got an upside target for UJ @ 111.66. The target was cleared the next day.
As with the EU case, once the target is hit, I re-evaluate to see if any new upside targets show up.
Surprisingly (& unlike EU), no new UJ upside targets showed up.
So at the moment, I am still inclined to stay with option 2 (refer back to last week's update).
I have no clue what may trigger a sharp/sudden decline in UJ, but given the high probability I have for a relatively big 'strength' leg in CHF, I'm guessing that some sort of 'unexpected' risk event will be on the headlines soon? Dunno, better wait & see, but yeah as long as no new upside target shows up in UJ, I'll be cautiously trying to pick a top.

4- CHF Pairs:
All remains the same as per the last update.
Keep a close eye on EURCHF, it's begging to break down.
The longer it stays lingering at current prices, the sharper the decline is going to be.

5- GBP Strength:
Same as last week, nothing new, nothing changed.
  • #466
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:43am Nov 27, 2016 3:43am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Leveraged short term traders trade short term setups with pre-defined SLs that fit with their MM rules Leveraged short term traders do not trade medium/long-term setups
well those are short-term trades from my perspective
do you have a target for eurchf?
  • #467
  • Nov 28, 2016 4:18pm Nov 28, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} well those are short-term trades from my perspective do you have a target for eurchf?
Started warning about CHF around end of Oct, EURCHF was at 1.0850, we've been drifting down since then & we are currently at 1.0750

Here's the update from Nov 10 that is still in play:

""The way I see this playing out is the following: CHF pairs (mainly GBPCHF & EURCHF, and to a lesser extent USDCHF) will go crashing down, SNB intervenes strongly causing upward spikes that will be short lived & then the CHF pairs continue their ride."
We did see them crashing, and we did see them reverse, but to be honest the 'crash' wasn't at all of the magnitude I was afraid of. It was more of a steep drop rather than a crash. I'm still going to avoid CHF pairs because the crash scenario is still in play specially when the stock market finds its near term top & start reversing. "

Target wise, for me 1.0650 is a no brainier that is going to be tested in the short term. What's tricky is what comes after 1.0650.
The longer we remain lingering in this tight range, the sharper the drop is going to be. I do expect a WTF move similar to Jan 2015 (but to a smaller magnitude) to happen if 1.0650 doesn't hold &/or if the SNB doesn't v.strongly intervene.

---

Answering your PM: in case the above scenario happens, USDCHF would surely go for a dive too with 0.95x being the immediate target.
This again falls inline with my inclination to believe than a sharp JPY strength wave is very likely.
Seems for me like we have the pieces of the puzzle all aligned & waiting for some unexpected risk event to happen for investments to flock back into safe havens (CHF & JPY). Will we get this event? If yes, then when? ... I wish I could answer those questions right now
  • #468
  • Nov 28, 2016 4:41pm Nov 28, 2016 4:41pm
Hi Jay

i do still think there is a twist in the US before Jan 20 and Obama leaving office

key swing states starting recounts, electoral college to vote on Dec 19th, what a time for a few rogue votes, trump starting to play up already tweeting again, lots of rumbling of conflicts of interest. His children all getting entangled with national security and meetings with other heads of state

seems also to be adding to swamp instead of draining it, lots of protests from all sides, civil unrest quite high, trump supporters are losing faith with amount of u turns their man is making

already a few countries lining up against trump, Japan on TPP, India on trade, china wagging the finger on trade wars, oil bubbling, Europe very nervous over NATO

it's all hotting up, watch this unfold, could be the rumble in the jungle event you are seeing/feeling

BR
  • #469
  • Nov 28, 2016 4:55pm Nov 28, 2016 4:55pm
Quoting TradeFinder
Hi Jay i do still think there is a twist in the US before Jan 20 and Obama leaving office key swing states starting recounts, electoral college to vote on Dec 19th, what a time for a few rogue votes, trump starting to play up already tweeting again, lots of rumbling of conflicts of interest. His children all getting entangled with national security and meetings with other heads of state seems also to be adding to swamp instead of draining it, lots of protests from all sides, civil unrest quite high, trump supporters are losing faith with amount...
All is possible! I'm not going to put my self in a position of trying to predict what may be the trigger.
What I'm seeing based on probabilities & previous/historic market reactions is that the current values we have mainly in CHF, JPY, & GBP are not the real market values that we'll be seeing in the medium term, and yes fingers are pointing for a risk-on event.

I hope that whatever the risk event is going to be, it won't cause any civil unrest or harm to anyone. Wouldn't be fun making money out of people's misfortunes.
So far, I'm highly inclined to believe that a risk-on event is being cooked, & again it's based on my reading of market behavior rather than any political analysis.
  • #470
  • Nov 29, 2016 11:03am Nov 29, 2016 11:03am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I wish I could answer those questions right now
wow. analogy to jan '15 sounds a bit scary to me. we have a lot of events on the list next two weeks, so lets see what will come out of it. wish you the best.
  • #471
  • Nov 29, 2016 12:35pm Nov 29, 2016 12:35pm
Hi all,
FX-jay, eurusd can go to 1.0485??
Look like eurusd go up to 1.08.

Thank you very much and green pips!!
  • #472
  • Dec 6, 2016 3:27am Dec 6, 2016 3:27am
Hi all,
now it is possible that price search low prices. 1.0660?

Thank you very much
  • #473
  • Dec 15, 2016 1:02am Dec 15, 2016 1:02am
Hi all,
1.0483 in eurusd was corrected!! great FX-Jay.
Now maybe eurusd will stay between 1.0490-1.0440 or you see a short term up?

Thank you very much!
  • #474
  • Dec 15, 2016 6:51am Dec 15, 2016 6:51am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} 1- AUDNZD: Nothing changed, not much of movement. Targets remain the same. 2- EURUSD: 1.0547 cleared from the downside. The last low we had was 1.0517. This is most likely not going to be the bottom, since after clearing 1.0547 a new downside target showed up: 1.0485 It is highly likely that we are going to have a bottom in EU in the short term that will take us back to at least the 1.1350 levels. Be careful with picking bottoms though, since downside spikes to clear all buyers before a reversal are possible. 3- USDJPY: Last Tuesday, we...
Hello,
Could you please tell us new updatas? specialy EUR USD
Regards
  • #475
  • Dec 15, 2016 8:12am Dec 15, 2016 8:12am
I think that price will go to 1.08 again.

What are you opinion?

Thank you very much
  • #476
  • Mar 14, 2017 4:53am Mar 14, 2017 4:53am
I wonder what happened to Jay. This is one of the best FF thread's and I miss his insights. Good luck to everyone.
  • #477
  • Last Post: Oct 4, 2018 12:41am Oct 4, 2018 12:41am
Amazing revelations here! Thanks,. @fx-jay for opening another dimension of this. You have basically shown us how to optimize profits and minimize drawdowns by looking into statistics and probability
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