Revert to the Mean

Entirely possible. Trading in US makes it difficult. But having two separate accounts would work.

Just keeps getting better and better.
using 400bb to catch trends..
using 200sma as a trailing stop.
Only trade London...
Take profit in thirds..

Studying the charts all weekend.
Came up with 400bb with 200sma trailing stop.
This is the first trade.. looking good.
because of fifo, open 3 positions.
First closes at 20 pips
second at 40 pips
third runs till it hits the 200sma..

I really appreciate how dynamic the parameters are for this strategy.
As the move continues the stop along the 200 moves closer to limit losses in case it should reverse.
The bb band moves to maximize profits if prices should cross inside.
I set first tp at 20... just in case there is surge..
But if there is a cross inside the band that is the first tp.
The second tp is set at 40 but again if there another cross inside the band and it is not still part of the first cross inside then that ist he second tp
The third position is left to run until it hits the 200 and stops out.
The first tp was taken..
And if it should reverse the whole thing will more or less be a break even at this point... No loss.
If it continues on there is guaranteed profit, now just a matter of how much,.
Guaranteed... What's not to like about that!!

I don't know if this is good or bad. To have a great trade like this for the first shot at this strategy. I might get spoiled..
Any way it surged to hit the tp 40 now there is the one last position left free to go as far as it wants to until it hits the 200.
What a great trade...
Thank you Lord...

It's like the "dream" trade...
I'm getting spoiled real bad...
There will be losses... I need to remember that.

About as perfect as it gets...
took about 5 hours..

It was about 30 mins before NY open and an hour before release of significant US data.
I really didn't want to open positions before the opening of NY and release of the data.
there had been 3 bad signal during London. So I was beginning to think it was a sideways day starting..
I didn't take the bad signals.
But sometimes before data the market anticipates what it will be and a signal before hand is the time to get in.
Soooo. With hesitation I took the signal.
Now I am waiting for data release...in 30 minutes...

20 minutes before US GDP
data out of Europe was worse than expected..
first time it pull inside the band I'll take some profit to reduce risk of loss just in case it reverses

Three minutes to US GDP.
Closed one of the three for 5 pips
risk of loss is not greatly reduced..
at most 7 pips each for the two remaining positions.
possibility of gain is very big, total loss could be only 7 pips or so.

US data came in better than expected.
the trade is looking good. next time it pulls back inside the band I'll take profit the 2nd position.
and let the 3rd position run until it stops out at the 200..

Pulled back inside the band for the second time. Closed 2nd position.
The trade is profitable even if the third closes at the stop trailing the 200 sma.
gain so far 12 pips, possible stop out -6 pips.
US consumer confidence in about an hour.

That's exactly what happened.
Two were small gains and one was a small loss.
This strategy is really good.
It limits losses while keep possibility of large gains.
More US data in about an hour.
Probably go sideways until just before...

The volatility is scary as hell.
Here's a signal short setting up.
No way.
1 hour to US consumer confidence. I can wait.

4 mins to US GDP and the trading has been all over the map.
Maybe that's it for today even if there is entry signal long..I'll wait at least five minutes to see if a trend actually develops.

The stop loss on this is huge.
there' still 3 hours to London close..
plenty of time to run.
This could end badly...
I waited to enter to see if there was any follow through..
the signal was valid. So I acted appropriately.
Only thing is the stop loss is so large.

Signs of life. 2 hours till London close..
The stop is still huge.
First tp is 20... So no need to wait for a pull back inside the band if it hits 20 pips.

Closed early. When the market heads for the 200sma like this is goes there eventually. No need to wait for the inevitable.
If I had entered when the signal first appeared... I would have closed 1 position for a small profit on the pull back inside the bands.
Then only two positions would be at risk of loss.
But I hesitated.
And entered late so there was no profit to take at the pull back. And ended up with 3 positions at risk.
This is me trying to out think the strategy.
It could be closing early like this is mistake too. It could turn around make a last run just before London closes.
That would again be me trying to out think the strategy.
That is a dangerous habit. I have done it twice today and paid for it at least once possible twice.
The pressure and thinking was. It always goes to the 200 when it gets that close. But no it doesn't always go to the 200. Especially since the deviation I am using is 400x2.
I wasn't a loser, but I concluded it was before it actually lost. So I made it a loser.
Hard lesson to learn. The strategy is good. I need to stick to it and not try to second guess.
There are some instances when a signal is bad, I need to research what causes that if I can. It may be time of day.
If I had stayed properly with the strategy... I would have 5 pips from the first tp, and now waiting for tp on the 2nd position about 10 and the third position free to run with no possibility of loss only a matter of how much gain.
Instead I have a loss of 30 pips.
Just for trying to second guess the strategy.
The stop to begin with was so huge it put a lot of fear in my mind.
In the future it may be helpful to avoid entering a trade with such a large stop.

So aggravating... it has done exactly what I originally thought it would do. Make a last run before London closing.
it is amazing how my fear was greatest just before it turned around.
What is the use I ask myself of having a strategy if I don't intend to follow it.
What is the use of hours and hours of researching how the strategy performs in all different market conditions if I don't intend to follow it.
It is the psychology somehow that is messing me up.
The trade was good.
Now my fear is the next time I enter a trade I will be determined to follow it and not guess like I did with this and it will be a huge loser.
Fear fear fear.
I have tested this strategy very thoroughly and yes it does have losers, but not very many. It has way more winning trades.
If I was afraid of huge loss because the stop would have to be so far away then one thing I can do is not enter the trade and be willing to miss out if it does turn out to be a good trade.
Like this one was even though. it had that huge initial stop.
The yellow lines show how the strategy should have been followed. The blue lines show the dumb thing I did.

What a great trade that was. It still hasn't stopped out yet, but if it stopped out right now it would net.. 52 pips.
this was the trade that taught me about planning out the risk.
The stop was at the 200 to start, which meant the loss for all three positions if it stopped out would be 30x3=90 pips way too much risk that I would want. So I hesitated, got in late and panicked when it retraced to my actual risk tolerance level 10 to15x3=30 to 45 total risk. that was when I jumped ship and took the 33 pips loss and closed everything.
What I see now is that if the stop is very large like that then I calculate the position size to fit the risk. In this case instead of using 1% per position (x3) for a total of 3% for the trade. I could use .5% per position. which would be 1.5% for the trade and total risk would be my tolerance level 30pips.
Learning the hard way, but I am learning.