New Martingale EA (logic like Mathtrader EA)

@ghostbiker: what do you think of this?? let me know please

Wow. Good setting EA.
Please let me know what is your setting?

You can read the stting from de screen.... read the setting there, ok?

- good and better

- pleae change the settings like following: 1000 $ / EUR (absolute minimum for martingale)

- TF OK H1

TP 6 Lot 0.02 Gridsize 30 Max Orders 7


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Guys do tests on seven months or 1 year past is useless. the EA should be tested over longer periods with different variables. You're adapting the EA to a chart that you already know but do not know the future. The fundamental problem with this is that EA has no outputs in strong trending periods, and how it is now unusable. If the next seven months will be the trend, you will lose all your gains or worse your capital. Then if you have an idea of what you would do in case of trend, I would be happy to know

Anything wrong with TP 3 Lot 0.01? All you are doing is scaling down?

You reach your TP faster that way! PLUS guarantees more of a profit than a loss in the long run.

I think a smaller account is more suitable as well.

20 $ with 0.02 Lot = 100 Pips round

What settings are you using for Bollinger Band?

I see everyone here Strategy Testing this EA with a STOPLOSS of 0, if you are then your test is basically invalid and corrupt. If you don't believe me try using that .set on a demo account and watch your account get blown.

I just wanted to share this so we can stop wasting time and all work together and focus on improving this EA (if it really is profitable and accurate) and finding the best parameters for it including SL.

Thanks

this fails badly in november 2016 for some reason

for martingale the stoploss is the account. first or next it will be blown but perhaps
we can manage it with an external equity protection ea there are many around here.
no set and forget for tis kind of ea. the key is profit and withdraw. the luck is to double the account in a year
the unluck is to lose all very soon

I ask again: Can anybody reply to the question how any martingale strategy is able to work statistically?

See the following. Assume the hit rate of any event (entry and close strategy) given to the EA is 40%. And it is a Bernoulli event, so there is only two outcomes (A=40%=success and B=60%). How can doubling the amount in the case of failure give a better expected result than not doubling but just continuing?

doubling (martingale, and for god's sake it does not matter if you double or x3 or x1.5.... it just depends on your deposit):
1st trade: 60% expected fail. 100€ invested means: 100€ x 40% succes rate means in 40 out of 100 times you will get 100€, so 40x100€=4000€. However in 60 out of 100 times, you will lose 100€, so 100€x60=6000€. The balance is -2000€. Your expected loss is 2000€ in a hundred trades.

So you want to get some of the 2000€ back. Just use martingale.
2nd trade: 36% expected fail in a row 60% x 60%)! However, the chance of winning did not change at this point. Your success rate will still be 40% and the failure rate remains at 60%. The probability of hitting two fails in a row is 36%. Hitting two fails in a row is a different statistical event from hitting just a fail. You need to understand this!. The only chance of getting something back after a sequence of x losses is if odds of the sequence of x trials is on your favour. That means: The probibility changes after x trials towards like 70% winning and 30% failure. If you want to have true results about this rate, you need to have a large amount of events (like 200 hits at the xth stage). This is the only chance of being profitable.
So as you know this, why not just investing on the xth trade of a sequence of a failures (since is seems to bee the one where the odds are in your favour)? Your want to earn money from each of the previous trades by doubling up. And you will be more profitable if this sequence does not require to much liquidity until you hit the xth sequence. It is a simple probability distribution.
Will you make more money by investing LOTvolume*2^x into a martingale strategy with a martinfale factor of 2 or with X*LOTvolume on xth trade of the losing sequence? You will recognize that it depends on the statistical significant increase of the probility on the xth trade which of the two strategies is more profitable. Besides, "significant" is a scientific term. There should be high resprect to that one.

So, as I pointed out that martingale is unable to improve your hit rate, just tell me, how you want to make money out of it by not manipulating your expected profit. If you do not believe me, inform yourself about martingale. Search until you will find the evidence that it will blow your account unless, the odds in sequence x are in your favour. If you are not of the mathematical issues of martingale, better get your hands off it. Don't trade a system that you don't understand.

So again: Just explain me, how this martingale can improve my odds?

your example works fantastic with a coin toss.
where the coin is the only variable, so, yes, academically it is all great.
toss enough times the coins and you might just see 20 head in a row.

take EURUSD.
make simple, have a 100 pips grid for martingale.
1.06 the price.
while academically and by some shock news it can happen that it will move to 1.30 in a one way fashion, without ever producing a 100 pips pullback.
yes, possible.
so that end of the world is in the next hour!!
you might say the black swan of CHF.
well, exection apart, in an ideal academic environment, here it is, watch slow motion, and decide if it was a one way drop, or with time to time presented pullback that if stay in theory land, should execute and result is a favorable outcome if martingale traded.
of course, such extreme events wont happen every day ( just like end of the world has yet to come too).
the point is, trading between 2 currencies and given the traders emotions, it is the most rarely a continous one-way ride.

question: how did you get first trade probability at 60% failure? why not 50-50, as a coin toss? or 51% failure if toy with commissions?
btw, and if you dont close your initial position before double down, is that considered a new trade with a lower % probability, or the same first trade with added size but same %probability?

Hi GB,

Gridsize 30 ? Are You sure or typo meaning 300 instead?

Cheers Barlam

30 Pips = 300 Points

and trade NOT on M5 trade minimum M15 or better H1

Users trade with M5 are learning resistence

the Problem is trade on M5 make the EA 3 orders in 15minutes
trade on M15 make 1 order in 15 Minutes
trade on H1 make 1 order in 1 hour

Thx GB, I thought so. Just wanted to make that point clear.

Cheers
Barlam

closed today, DD now 0.4%

real, still trying to find the best settings