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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #56,481
  • Nov 22, 2016 6:51am Nov 22, 2016 6:51am
For reasons unbeknownst to us... god gave him that voice

...


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wJcezFpIWwU
Time hides Nothing
  • #56,482
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:18am Nov 22, 2016 8:18am
Quoting CindyXXXX
For reasons unbeknownst to us... god gave him that voice ... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wJcezFpIWwU

nice ......just right atmosphere for trading..................think I have died...
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,483
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:23am Nov 22, 2016 8:23am
Quoting fti
{quote} rigid? then you will splash. only my view. not in stone. regards maybe not enough kerosene? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tMrB3gsM7I need be rich, man need be rich. ooops oil is leaking. Ahhhhh :good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ht9EMnnQQE

FTI - do you get to fly even with someone now........ is it in your soul or are you done with that.......my man's soul think he is a bird - upside down one (cannot blame him... mesa was too)


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,484
  • Edited 8:46am Nov 22, 2016 8:27am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting fti
{quote} rigid? then you will splash. only my view. not in stone. regards maybe not enough kerosene? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tMrB3gsM7I need be rich, man need be rich. ooops oil is leaking. Ahhhhh :good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ht9EMnnQQE


i guess the answer is in gann's ability to read price action, because if he pyramided wrongly, he would probably have lost all his money, so ability to attack and pyramid and deploy scout, must come from his ability to read price action. i noticed this in his book, truth of the stock tape, he is always at the peaks and troughs, at there, he deploys scouts, then pyramids if in trend, if range bound, he just deploy the scout and take profits at the other hip/lop. the ability to withstand volatility, is the read factor and timing factor, as in a volatility range, being able to time moves well, allows for lesser volatility to take you out, but if volatility is still there, then perhaps counter impulse is at play here, so there is a risk of adding to losers.

the swing charts he use, encodes the minor intermediate and major term swings, the hip and lops, and the volatility range, essentially, gann mastered the ability to pulse the market extremely well.

in addition to richard dennis trend riding mo, and whats taught here.

But ability to scale some volatility allows for ability to trade ranges while market is non trendy

can't help it if at the back of my mind, it just keeps occurring to me, there is a voice which keeps telling me that if the best of each is combined into 1 mo, it could become an mo suitable for me.
  • #56,485
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:53am Nov 22, 2016 8:53am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} FTI - do you get to fly even with someone now........ is it in your soul or are you done with that.......my man's soul think he is a bird - upside down one (cannot blame him... mesa was too) Alex
oh way done.
2X life time already.

Played with kites with lawn mowers, but couldn't cut that as well.
So learned new skills work the $, mindset stayed. cannot display my dirty linen in public.
Didn't succeeded in everything i wanted to achieve.
But is OK.

Ahhh bird? maybe he is. He winged?

regards
  • #56,486
  • Edited 8:55pm Nov 22, 2016 8:54am | Edited 8:55pm
Interesting you mention those cookie, I found for myself, less is more, the less I think, the easier and quicker I react. I been doing this exercise to clear my mind, and thoughts, so that it is in a void of calmness and relaxness with a peace to wander. I like it very much.
Some days, there is the odd ball, and odd terrain and I get caught, but those days, I can kill and fight another day, or I can check stock and tank but with these moves this week, those "magic" hands this week at GBP or JPY... I rather kill them, check stock and re-strategies at next checkpoint. Terrain reading been "some here some there" lately, we'll just see where she goes...

I get where you are coming from, combine the "best of the best" and I wish you nothing but the best, I hope you report back with great results, and share them if convenient.

Regards

Inserted Video

On one hand, I feel sad that the tree, is no longer a tree, but on the other hand, the respect and beauty the craftsman have given the wood is hone over centuries and very admirable.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,487
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:17am Nov 22, 2016 9:17am
Quoting RelaxRay
Interesting you mention those cookie, I found for myself, less is more, the less I think, the easier and quicker I react. I been doing this exercise to clear my mind, and thoughts, so that it is in a void of calmness and relaxness with a peace to wander. I like it very much. Some days, there is the odd ball, and odd terrain and I get caught, but those days, I can kill and fight another day, or I can check stock and tank but with these moves this week, those "magic" hands this week at GBP or JPY... I rather kill them, check stock and re-strategies...
Quoting RelaxRay
Interesting you mention those cookie, I found for myself, less is more, the less I think, the easier and quicker I react. I been doing this exercise to clear my mind, and thoughts, so that it is in a void of calmness and relaxness with a peace to wander. I like it very much. Some days, there is the odd ball, and odd terrain and I get caught, but those days, I can kill and fight another day, or I can check stock and tank but with these moves this week, those "magic" hands this week at GBP or JPY... I rather kill them, check stock and re-strategies...
Ah, if you interested in results, the version which is more rigid than what I'm using now, had the same kind of p&l as Richard Dennis, the swing's are large, -40% max DD but gain was 200%, account went down to -40% , recovered all and moved on to 200% winners, but it's rigid, when market is ranging, it kills the account, when market, trends, it makes alot and recovers from that and much more, each trade max loss is set to 2%. The terrain read and such is as per what fti provided. Ability to hold mindset is paramount when experiencing loss, but must not impair ability to execute.

So, I'm in the process of unrigidtizing and relaxing the criteria for cutting losses and scaling the volatility range, receiving advantage from timing through ro3k and hip lops to strengthen and mitigate the volatility range to a certain extend in most cases, by strengthening the core read of the market, and incorp the rescue when lack of impulse or is a case of mistiming, but if counter impulse or changed trend is sighted or max loss is hit, exercise has to be abandoned.

So what I'm doing is trying to assess the type of rigidity and see what I can do with it to improve performance while avoiding the death battle scenario.

The book the complete turtle trader detailed the p&l of the turtles, and as you can see, the draw down in non performing years can get large, therefore there is a requirement to incorporate additional strategies to remove and mitigate the shortcomings of the mo, which is a result of rigidity in both using indicators for entry and exit and only trading strong trends.
  • #56,488
  • Edited 10:18am Nov 22, 2016 9:19am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} i guess the answer is in gann's ability to read price action, because if he pyramided wrongly, he would probably have lost all his money, so ability to attack and pyramid and deploy scout, must come from his ability to read price action. i noticed this in his book, truth of the stock tape, he is always at the peaks and troughs, at there, he deploys scouts, then pyramids if in trend, if range bound, he just deploy the scout and take profits at the other hip/lop. the ability to withstand volatility, is the read factor and timing...
The trick is rule 1 capital preservation.
rule 2 capital preservation.
rule 3 never forget rule 1.

remember always, you are in for winning the pips.
not to be a hero. although sometimes one will feel like one.

Have ability manage book is key.
Some you make big, some you make small. some you break even.
When they cornered you, think way out with set boundaries, otherwise pull the plug.
Terrain reading skills comes with on the ball experience.
When you have many tricks in your bag, then you above the boys.

Truth is there are really no fixed rules. Chart reads helps you strategise appropriately.
Only skill sets, money management and experience which markets afford you.
What works in 1 terrain may work different in another terrain.
But you know how to get out with the pips, otherwise at least come out flat, but after good battle.

And never allow ego or need to be correct lead you into tight squeezes.
Be generous, sometimes you will be on the other end, but you have escape route.

You didn't answer the questions i asked.
You will find the answers there. if you think about it.
You already learned basics and the "do not go theres". How you master it, Its up to you.
The boundaries are in place keep you safe. How successful you can become is up to you to use what you mastered.

regards

Making the 1st mio is hardest. after that is easy manage. unless you gets hard in the arteries. That will be a different story.


hahahahaha just 1 40% DD and you may never recover.
only 1 bullet in the right place, it not works like that in life.
ants work.
you want to get lucky every day, even if it takes a whole week make it happen, not once.
you taxi to take off, everytime you need to land, even with short 1 wheel is ok. never splash short fueled.
Added- and you pray that there is no 1 nut loose.
There ain't no holi grail. Otherwise everyone will be a billionaire.

To make 100,000 with 10,000 is a dream.
To make 100,000 with 1,000,000 is reality.
but there will always be the 1 lucky in a million.maybe. in lottery world.
  • #56,489
  • Nov 22, 2016 10:13am Nov 22, 2016 10:13am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} {quote} Ah, if you interested in results, the version which is more rigid than what I'm using now, had the same kind of p&l as Richard Dennis, the swing's are large, -40% max DD but gain was 200%, account went down to -40% , recovered all and moved on to 200% winners, but it's rigid, when market is ranging, it kills the account, when market, trends, it makes alot and recovers from that and much more, each trade max loss is set to 2%. The terrain read and such is as per what fti provided. Ability to hold mindset is paramount when experiencing...

Hmm, noted, thanks for sharing.
You sound like you're trying to bend the mechanics and personality of each style into your favour, I don't think thats possible as the contrast is too much from what you have written. Nevertheless, no harm trying on demo I guess.

Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,490
  • Nov 22, 2016 10:16am Nov 22, 2016 10:16am
Quoting fti
{quote} The trick is rule 1 capital preservation. rule 2 capital preservation. rule 3 never forget rule 1. remember always, you are in for winning the pips. not to be a hero. although sometimes one will feel like one. Have ability manage book is key. Some you make big, some you make small. some you break even. When they cornered you, think way out with set boundaries, otherwise pull the plug. Terrain reading skills comes with on the ball experience. When you have many tricks in your bag, then you above the boys. Truth is there are really no fixed...
Hey,

Just off my head, compounding a 10k -> 100k ... how long do you think it will take with a safe and viable approach?

Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,491
  • Edited 10:59am Nov 22, 2016 10:25am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hey, Just off my head, compounding a 10k -> 100k ... how long do you think it will take with a safe and viable approach? Regards to get 1% from 10k I would think hav got less exposure($ and cent) when it is 1% of 100k ....
don't know, my friend.
It depends on the markets.
i seen 50+ peeps became bankrupted and millionaires in 1 hour time differentials.
depends on the markets and ones's risk appetite.

The purpose of trading is to try and outperform what depositing it in depo instruments( fixed income securities) gives.
Anyone making 10% above depo rates would be considered good traders.
But once in a blue moon windfalls comes in the most unexpected ways.


regards

by the way, compounded your funds depo would double in value every 7 to 9 years at averaged rates.
so is not surprising if one performed well could double in less than 7?
The reason why much peeps risking in markets is because in the pass decade they getting close to nothing for depos.
  • #56,492
  • Nov 22, 2016 10:29am Nov 22, 2016 10:29am
Quoting fti
{quote} don't know, my friend. It depends on the markets. i seen 50+ peeps became bankrupted and millionaires in 1 hour time differentials. depends on the markets. The purpose of trading is to try and outperform what depositing it instruments. Anyone making 10% above depo rates would be considered good traders. But once in a blue moon windfalls comes in the most unexpected ways. regards
Thank you my friend.
Noted, with gods grace.

Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,493
  • Nov 22, 2016 10:32am Nov 22, 2016 10:32am
Quoting fti
tired eyes. But i will spend a little time on higher ground for a holiday. Wait see damage report. ok back to chit chat. if you extend for rescue, you know your safety is at fibo. so if you extend for attack , where should you roll back for regrouping, if necessary? And where do you replenish your logistics from? Unless of course you had determined that the scout is dead in the waters. Las thingy one would do is to panic retreat. So the stages of regrouping and exposures. what is best practise? One not want to rush. that would be damage control...
For extending attack, I don't really understand the question, could you clarify?

Replenishment of logistics, if I understand the question correctly, is done when hip lop beginning to show and and short term reversal of 1 swing seems likely, and also to bring out troops if possible.

Best practise for exposure and regrouping is to wind down back wards from fibo skew, 8 rescue 5 and try bring 5 out and then try bring 3 out and so on. Depending on who needs rescue, which is to always keep a silver bullet for such cases, and engineer a strategic retreat, till squared, let mindset cool off then redeploy scout again.

Well, ego attack, i made that mistake before, that is attack too aggressively, if that's the case, account will be in death battle mode, so try bring those in good standing out and some bad standing ones out too, the main thing is to bring as many out as possible, then reassessing if trend still in tact for rescue, otherwise bite bullet. But learnt to tone down the attacks.

The threshold is about just a guestimate, 60% for effective skewing of rescue.from this point it's pretty much gone. Normal exposure should be 1to2%?

Nope, lost 2x daily performance, but as mentioned, trying to move towards the alternative performance rating to overcome the loss table.

No intention to expose full book at all, as above mentioned.

Riding a trend should be when positions in profits, if in losses, it's disadvantageous to carry size and overstay.

Yep context is key in reading market, this week yen seems range bound, the rest seems wanna reverse and stop hunts prevalent, managed to carve out a nice sum of profits with small skew. That's my point I guess about the trend riding mo, that is, don't be so rigid to only ride trends, this week market moving into fomc so market seems rather nervous, and seems range bound so range strategy employed.

Don't know if looking to make mios but a hundred a day and I'm happy and only interested in keeping a small sum in the account.
  • #56,494
  • Edited 11:12am Nov 22, 2016 10:54am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hmm, noted, thanks for sharing. You sound like you're trying to bend the mechanics and personality of each style into your favour, I don't think thats possible as the contrast is too much from what you have written. Nevertheless, no harm trying on demo I guess. Regards
Ah it's I think to some extend possible, as if they are all being viewed as different strategies meant to handle a market condition type. But, there is a fallacy in looking it as a whole. The key is not view them as a whole but to see the strategic value of each component and strategize on the fly to use it as the market manifests.

But if you look deeper, and look at the mo, read, execution, mm, they each have a characteristic, which produce an effect. for example in a range, how would gann handle it? He would buy the low and sell the high and trade the breakout pullback if the market breaks out, but Richard Dennis would only trade the breakout. The main difference was gann's read is really flexible so it guided the scout well. Therefore his high winning percentage, despite what kind of terrain he in.

If you seen Jupiter, one of the posters in this thread mentioned, he is ready for both the range and the breakout, just looking to see which way price tilts towards, I believe he is very close, except for the rigidity of fixed pips. That would die to the assassin formation and ugly form markets. So relaxation of such a requirement to be made more flexible would enhance the results. But apart from that I think he is quite good.

Well if you look closer fti's mo encompass gann and Richard Dennis mo characteristics, when they in the money, and then some more, but just no fixed loss amount but pegged to 3x daily p&l
  • #56,495
  • Edited 11:47am Nov 22, 2016 11:21am | Edited 11:47am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Ah it's I think to some extend possible, as if they are all being viewed as different strategies meant to handle a market condition type. But, there is a fallacy in looking it as a whole. The key is not view them as a whole but to see the strategic value of each component and strategize on the fly to use it as the market manifests. But if you look deeper, and look at the mo, read, execution, mm, they each have a characteristic, which produce an effect. for example in a range, how would gann handle it? He would buy the low and sell the high...
you seems understand, but i detect some confusion.
why would you initiate and attack if you did not detected reasonable probability of directional pulse?
Would you agree that an attack in a range bound congestion is just wasting bullets?
So the primary mo is to trade in range of selected tenure until trend possibilities is dectected.
Thats the mo isn't it. And when directional bias is deem suggested yoou become aggressive, therefore attack seq?
Is one and the same coin.

regards

Lets say you gone into an attack seq, but it remains range bound.
You must realise that, if within your time window of expectations, it no comes.
That your risk exposure had increased exponentially and you are wasting bullets.
So what do you do?
you go back into same mo , unwind the increased risk when able. no?
so is the same mo. no?
in effects whether you in attack seq or scout seq, you still trading the range, only the level of aggression differs.
Of course if you had heeps of foreign cap you can afford be more aggressive give edge.
Would be fool hardy to be aggressive if you didn't have the resource. no?

if you reach loss tolerance limit you already red flagged, you dare attack?
Know the enemy is great but you must also know yourself.
Have you the capacity gleen the perceived advantage?
  • #56,496
  • Nov 22, 2016 11:44am Nov 22, 2016 11:44am
Quoting fti
{quote} you seems understand, but i detect some confusion. why would you initiate and attack if you did not detected reasonable probability of directional pulse? Would you agree that an attack in a range bound congestion is just wasting bullets? So the primary mo is to trade in range of selected tenure until trend possibilities is dectected. Thats the mo isn't it. And when directional bias is deem suggested yoou become aggressive, therefore attack seq? Is one and the same coin. regards Lets say you gone into an attack seq, but it remains...
The range size plays a part and the mm skew plays a part too, so in range bound, I only use a 1 1 as attack or rescue skew as it's currently range bound. And the range needs to be reasonably sized to allow scout to cushion the 1 unit of attack. Then it's tp straight. No stays more than 1 swing up or down, since opportunity is to play both sides of range with 1 1 skew. Just to clarify, 2 units max in range bound. And not just the skew 1 1 1 skew.

Only when there is reasonable chance for impulse to develop then 2 3 5 is open for use.
  • #56,497
  • Nov 22, 2016 11:54am Nov 22, 2016 11:54am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} The range size plays a part and the mm skew plays a part too, so in range bound, I only use a 1 1 as attack or rescue skew as it's currently range bound. And the range needs to be reasonably sized to allow scout to cushion the 1 unit of attack. Then it's tp straight. No stays more than 1 swing up or down, since opportunity is to play both sides of range with 1 1 skew. Just to clarify, 2 units max in range bound. And not just the skew 1 1 1 skew. Only when there is reasonable chance for impulse to develop then 2 3 5 is open for use.
eeeeer how is 1,1 an attack? what is your scout?
and why is a rescue necessary in range bound?

regards
  • #56,498
  • Nov 22, 2016 12:01pm Nov 22, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting fti
{quote} eeeeer how is 1,1 an attack? what is your scout? and why is a rescue necessary in range bound? regards
Ah, scout is the first unit deployed?

Not necessary if the range is tight, but sometimes there might be mistimings

Oh no, it's 2am here, talk to you tomorrow, need wake at 6 am
  • #56,499
  • Edited 12:24pm Nov 22, 2016 12:08pm | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Ah, scout is the first unit deployed? Not necessary if the range is tight, but sometimes there might be mistimings Oh no, it's 2am here, talk to you tomorrow, need wake at 6 am
noted. Goodnite.

i don't recall saying scout is 1st deployed.althought is always 1st deployed, following no more scouts meh?
scout is you base size deployment.
1,1,1 is 3 scouts. and if 3 scouts cannot tell you anything, whats point send more?
sometimes when i have too much profits i can send up to 7 scouts. if i not tooo itchy backside.

you not seen me do the 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,50
thats heavy backside position. itching for a battle regardless. too much foreign cap or very biased.
normally would indicate i navigating a double zig zag.


regards
  • #56,500
  • Nov 22, 2016 12:20pm Nov 22, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting RelaxRay
Interesting you mention those cookie, I found for myself, less is more, the less I think, the easier and quicker I react. I been doing this exercise to clear my mind, and thoughts, so that it is in a void of calmness and relaxness with a peace to wander. I like it very much. Some days, there is the odd ball, and odd terrain and I get caught, but those days, I can kill and fight another day, or I can check stock and tank but with these moves this week, those "magic" hands this week at GBP or JPY... I rather kill them, check stock and re-strategies...
hi,

about the thinking,

what helped for me was to create new Thought 'sequenes' which i recall by certain situations.

with credits to FTI for Some clarification About the recall, thanks!

Ruben
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