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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,541
  • Nov 20, 2016 12:41am Nov 20, 2016 12:41am
For oil this year we had a low of under $26 and high of about $52 so I reckon that we hit $38 take or give before the end of this year. My $.02..
  • #2,542
  • Nov 20, 2016 12:45am Nov 20, 2016 12:45am
Expecting a consolidation.
  • #2,543
  • Nov 21, 2016 8:52am Nov 21, 2016 8:52am
tempting to go short but... but... it's going higher. ...thinking to wait for announcement to have some clearness.
  • #2,544
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:21am Nov 21, 2016 11:21am
I expected a close of the gap before a move higher...looks like I was wrong.
  • #2,545
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:45pm Nov 21, 2016 9:45pm
Quoting user954
Two days after the Trump win, we have crude trading here in the low 40s. We see this as an excellent entry. We expect crude to be over $90 within a year from now.
Though crude is up around 14% since our entry, it is still not too late to go long even for the short term. We see good odds for it to break $55 before the end of January. Though our primary play is to see it over $90 before the end of 2017
  • #2,546
  • Nov 22, 2016 1:16am Nov 22, 2016 1:16am
Quoting user954
{quote} Though crude is up around 14% since our entry, it is still not too late to go long even for the short term. We see good odds for it to break $55 before the end of January. Though our primary play is to see it over $90 before the end of 2017
Who is our...???
  • #2,547
  • Nov 22, 2016 7:04am Nov 22, 2016 7:04am
Quoting user954
{quote} Though crude is up around 14% since our entry, it is still not too late to go long even for the short term. We see good odds for it to break $55 before the end of January. Though our primary play is to see it over $90 before the end of 2017
so, not below 40 we are going to see? my thinking stocks move down would bring oil much below 40 till January..., ??
  • #2,548
  • Nov 22, 2016 7:45am Nov 22, 2016 7:45am
personally medic, i am not heeding that rhetoric. I don't see crude hitting 90 again for a very long time. but nobody knows for sure.
  • #2,549
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:13am Nov 22, 2016 8:13am
Quoting bladerogers
personally medic, i am not heeding that rhetoric. I don't see crude hitting 90 again for a very long time. but nobody knows for sure.
90 - ? it's depends on inflation and it's picking up, in other hand D Trump team yesterday confirm to remove a lot of restrictions set on energy, so, I expecting oil/gas production increase ..., will see..., for now I closed yesterday my oil shorts from 51 and going to wait till thing get more clear...
  • #2,550
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:50pm Nov 22, 2016 9:50pm
update
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  • #2,551
  • Nov 23, 2016 3:51pm Nov 23, 2016 3:51pm
Quoting medvic
{quote} so, not below 40 we are going to see? my thinking stocks move down would bring oil much below 40 till January..., ??

what we see is that the political forces that pushed down the price of oil and kept it down will ease considerably and that will be the biggest driver of oil to $90+ over the next 12 months

regarding stocks, certainly the path of least resistance is up and a parabolic move higher wouldn't surprise us. But we don't see one driving the other in the near future anyway apart from the correlation of crude prices to the energy sector stocks in the respective indices
  • #2,552
  • Nov 30, 2016 9:09pm Nov 30, 2016 9:09pm
Oils correction

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  • #2,553
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:45am Dec 1, 2016 12:45am
Quoting Jfrancis
Oils correction {image}
Hi Jfrancis,

Nice chart on oil above. I guess it is a bit debatable how far Crude Oil is likely to go on this pop. The 4 Hr chart below shows Gartley's 222 pattern, which seems to limit the upside somewhat....

On another matter, AUD/USD seems to be playing out as expected - nearly time to top up position/s IMO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,554
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:37pm Dec 1, 2016 12:37pm
Quoting ectoplasm
{quote} Hi Jfrancis, Nice chart on oil above. I guess it is a bit debatable how far Crude Oil is likely to go on this pop. The 4 Hr chart below shows Gartley's 222 pattern, which seems to limit the upside somewhat.... On another matter, AUD/USD seems to be playing out as expected - nearly time to top up position/s IMO. {image}
The price is dictating the pattern not otherwise!
  • #2,555
  • Dec 1, 2016 4:30pm Dec 1, 2016 4:30pm
So what is your take? All this is jawboning ? or actually oil is climbing no stop?
  • #2,556
  • Dec 2, 2016 3:50am Dec 2, 2016 3:50am
Maybe Crude oil price action is actually climbing non stop: looks a lot like consolidation before popping higher (bull flag) - however the Gartley 222 pattern suggests lower price action is just around the corner.

If that bull flag/pennant fails (say 50.50 is broken) then one could look for short short/s & see if oil is going your way

4 Hr chart:
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  • #2,557
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:06am Dec 2, 2016 6:06am
Quoting ectoplasm
Maybe Crude oil price action is actually climbing non stop: looks a lot like consolidation before popping higher (bull flag) - however the Gartley 222 pattern suggests lower price action is just around the corner. If that bull flag/pennant fails (say 50.50 is broken) then one could look for short short/s & see if oil is going your way 4 Hr chart: {image}
Hi there

From a FA point of view, what would take oil short ? The only thing I can think of is output cut promises not being enough
  • #2,558
  • Dec 4, 2016 4:55am Dec 4, 2016 4:55am
WTIC has had a nice bounce in price (up 12 %) on the reported deal, but it is close to a neck line (resistance). We could see short covering on a continued pop, but some indicators/ patterns still suggest lower prices soonish...

1 st chart is 4 Hr WTIC chart: Doji & divergence may well play out...



2nd chart is the Crude volatility index looks to be suggesting a reversal in price is around the corner:
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  • #2,559
  • Dec 6, 2016 9:30pm Dec 6, 2016 9:30pm
Oil right on higher time frame triangle resistance.

Is that a head and shoulders forming on the intraday charts?
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  • #2,560
  • Dec 7, 2016 2:23am Dec 7, 2016 2:23am
Quoting Vantage FX
Oil right on higher time frame triangle resistance. Is that a head and shoulders forming on the intraday charts? {image} {image}
If you move the left shoulder slightly to the right, and raise the neckline, there is an HnS that has already broken.....
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