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The Big secret to trading success

  • #681
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:39am Oct 6, 2016 8:39am
Quoting cat
{quote} Well I'll tell you how Davit comes up with a statistic like that, he makes it up. In reality, it is not accurate or indeed possible to put a statistic on price movement unless you refer to a specific time frame. So for example someone who trades off an hourly chart may only have a trending market once a week, whereas someone who trades off of a 1minute time frame or less will experience multiple trends in any one day. If he had read this thread properly, he would have seen that I do not talk about trends, I talk about momentum, which means...
Very well said.
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #682
  • Oct 7, 2016 2:55am Oct 7, 2016 2:55am
Quoting sylvin
{quote} your word is true wisdom but doing that would not be easy... trust me!
even trading is not easy, traders needs to have control on their emotions to be a successful trader
definitely i agree, whenever trades do not go in your favor, it do create disturbance in your mind
  • #683
  • Oct 7, 2016 10:18am Oct 7, 2016 10:18am
Quoting BBalazs
{quote} Very well said.
Thank you!
  • #684
  • Oct 7, 2016 10:56am Oct 7, 2016 10:56am
Quoting cat
because it is much more difficult to accurately enter a reversal than it is to trade a continuation, and anyone who knows how to trade will confirm this.
HOLO is a simple, effective, accurate way to enter reversals.
Price makes a highest open/lowest open.
Price goes up or down from there.
Either continuing
Or reversing.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #685
  • Edited 9:56am Oct 8, 2016 5:23am | Edited 9:56am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} HOLO is a simple, effective, accurate way to enter reversals. Price makes a highest open/lowest open. Price goes up or down from there. Either continuing Or reversing.
I think you need to elaborate on this, As for me at least, this means nothing. And as for simple, effective, accurate way to enter reversals, there is nothing simple in trading, least of all for those who are learning the ropes. There are strategies and patterns which will give you an edge, but that's as far as it goes. Your post makes you sound exactly like those people who sell ' magic, 100% winning trading techniques '....they don't exist.

Trading reversals are difficult because unless you time them absolutely right, the price can easily come back to stop you out. Trade with momentum following a pullback, and this is far less likely to happen, though you do of course still have to get the timing right, and I personally use moving averages for this. The way to trade pullbacks is to use a major moving average such as the 100sma or 200 ema, because the price will almost always aim for one of these before rolling over. What I do is to use a couple of other smaller moving averages which the price will pull up or down towards the bigger MA, for you will find that once the smaller MA has crossed or become very close to the bigger one, the price will resume with the trend/momentum. As for which smaller MAs to use, this is up to you, and something you will find by trial and error as I did. I also use multiple time frames because you cannot know exactly which tf the price is going to play to, so for example, I use, 10 sec as my smallest, a critical tf for getting good accuracy on my entries, then higher frames all the way up to H1 so that I can see where all the most important areas of support and resistance are.

For reversals, there are several important signals to watch out for. The first of these is whether the price has hit a key support or resistance level, because price seldom just stops and turns in the middle of nowhere. It is unwise and too risky to try to catch the top or bottom, so it is always better to wait for confirmation. Moving averages can give this, and diversion can help as well, and I use MACD for this, others use RSI or both, but really you only need one or the other. If you enter a long say right beneath a major MA like the 200ema, then you are asking for trouble, far better to wait until the price has dropped away from it, turned, put in a couple of bullish candles, before entering as price will always return to it's 200ema/sma on any time frame. One more thing to look out for if you are thinking of trading a reversal is what price does around a big S&R level, because a sudden very aggressive candle in the direction of the trend following an initial counter move which may have sucked some people into a trade, will often be a signal that the price is about to turn. Go too soon and you get caught by these if you use a small SL, but enter just after them, especially after a bullish/bearish candle depending on the direction you are trading, and you can nail the perfect entry. There was a very good example of this on Friday's Dax just before 9am London time. I trade smaller than the 1m time frame, but as I know most people reading this don't go smaller than 1 minute, I'll refer to it here. The London open sent the Dax down pretty hard to pivot level S2 which was just above the H4 100sma, so a big potential support level. Just before 9am the price dipped aggressively down, put in quite a long southerly stalk, and the next three 1 m candles were positive. If you use a 20sma as I do, you can see that at no point prior to this is it broken to the upside by a signal bullish candle, but at 09.05 it was, by a small hammer which closed north of it. Upon the close of this was the place to enter and this reversal quickly moved up 80 pips. A SL of 20 placed, a minimum for a 1m tf in my opinion, below the Bollinger was easily enough here, no point risking more. A combination of MAs would also have helped here as well, but I never share all my MAs here for obvious reasons. MACD was also rising from below the zero line, another indicator to be aware of, though in isolation not useful. And this is important - nothing works in isolation. Trading is all about having a combination of signals, not too many, but enough, which come together to give you a high probability signal to trade.

This , I think, is at least useable information for people reading this thread, but yours Tooslow, with all due respect, wasn't, as you cannot say something is simple and effective without demonstrating how this is so.
  • #686
  • Oct 8, 2016 10:08am Oct 8, 2016 10:08am
Quoting cat
{quote} I think you need to elaborate on this, As for me at least, this means nothing. And as for simple, effective, accurate way to enter reversals, there is nothing simple in trading, least of all for those who are learning the ropes. There are strategies and patterns which will give you an edge, but that's as far as it goes. Your post makes you sound exactly like those people who sell ' magic, 100% winning trading techniques '....they don't exist.
Cat, I elaborate on HOLO in my HOLO thread.
Trading is simple.
People make trading complicated.
Trading is mostly binary.
Up/Down.
Long/Short.
Profit/Loss.
Etc.
I am not here to sell anything.
Nothing for sale.
HOLO indicators and template posted free in my thread.
Your post makes you sound exactly like those people who have been fooled by the trading industry.
Multiple Moving Averages.
Multiple Time Frames
Trend.
Pullbacks.
Etc.
All of which complicate trading.
All of which are open to debate.
All of which look different depending on chart period.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Open/High/Low price always the same no matter what chart period displayed.
For a HOLO demonstration: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=590623
Take the 10 Trade Challenge.
Discover trading simplicity for yourself.
But first, you will have to put your ego aside.
And you will have to leave behind what you think you know about trading.

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GBPUSD on H1, M15, M1.
The lines do not change position.
The difference between reality and trading BS.

Green pips to all.
Cheers!

P.S. Cat you may have the last word.
I am not interested in being involved in internet pissing contests.
My time much to precious for nonsense like that.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #687
  • Oct 8, 2016 12:23pm Oct 8, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Cat, I elaborate on HOLO in my HOLO thread. Trading is simple.Frames Trend. Pullbacks. Etc. Discover trading simplicity for yourself. But first, you will have to put your ego aside. And you will have to leave behind what you think you know about trading. {image} {image} {image} GBPUSD on H1, M15, M1. The lines do not change position. The difference between reality and trading BS. Green pips to all. Cheers! P.S. Cat you may have the last word. I am not interested in being involved in internet pissing contests. My time much to...
Haven't read so much shit for a long time. I won't judge you too harshly though, in fact I won't judge you at all, because we all have our own path to trading success or failure, but the biggest mistake anyone can make is to imagine trading is simple, it isn't. Yes, we do tend to make it harder than it needs be, but those are psychological issues mainly. But the skill attached to correctly reading price movement and actually making money from it is incredibly difficult, which is why most people cannot do it. If you think that trading is simple, then you are either deluded, a liar, or one of the very few who have stuck with it long enough to make a living from it. Either way, I wish you green pips as I always do anyone, and thank you for your contribution.
  • #688
  • Oct 10, 2016 4:45pm Oct 10, 2016 4:45pm
I think there is a misunderstanding of what is meant by saying "trading is simple." It doesn't mean anyone can open MT4, open an account and be profitable soon. Of course not. I think what I and a couple others are saying when we say "trading is simple," comes from the fact that you become profitable when trading "seems simple" to you. Make no mistake that trading only becomes simple after you spend tons of time losing, studying, and losing some more, but I think what some of us are trying to say is that your efforts and your systems should be "simple" in that they do not give you a headache. The most successful traders I imagine are composed and aren't all over the place and stressed when they trade. Psychology is one of the most important aspects of trading and I can tell you that if your system is burning you out, then it won't work, even if you backtest it and it is profitable. It is the equivalent of watching Michael Jordan shoot with his right hand, and going outside and trying to shoot with your right hand meanwhile you are left handed. One person's success does not mean you can always mimic it, especially if it is not suited for you.

I find the approach on forex factory is backwards sometimes. Members scroll through the Trading Systems page and see profitable systems with members banking tons of pips and assume they can do the same. "It is backtested, the indicators work, these members are making money." While this might be true, it has nothing to do with YOUR individual success. The first year or so of trading should be you trying these systems, seeing what you like and don't like, but don't expect to make much money. I for one really wish the authors of these systems listed their own trading philosophy and personality before positing rules. This would eliminate a lot of frustration.

Take a step back before doing anything else. Ask yourself a couple questions. Are you a patient or impatient person? Do you like waking up in the middle of the night to trade? Do you like staring at a computer every 10 seconds or every 4 hours? Are you satisfied with making only a few pips, or waiting for big opportunities? How much can you risk? Literally take a trading personality test, because this is more important than almost anything else. You must create or find a system that you can work with. There are so many more questions, but you yourself must find your trading style. This will filter out 90% of these profitable systems. A system's style is as important as it's methodology. If a system doesn't flow and you find yourself changing your psychology and character to fit the system, you will have a rough time. This is what I mean when I say let the trades come to you, there are tons of ways to trade the market and be profitable, why not find a way that doesn't hurt your head.

Personally speaking I realize I cannot stare at a screen for a long time, but at the same time I like knowing that my trades will have a decent profit soon, these seem to be conflicting characteristics. However it isn't. I realized most big traders aren't staring at the screen most of the time. They know where people are buying/selling. So I shifted my work from staring at screen watching indicators, to studying charts to make predictions before they happened. My predictions are either confirmed and I enter the trade, or they are not confirmed by price reversal and I do nothing. That itself is the simplicity that I have found.

This meant I had to know where the market would produce profitable set-ups, I HATED trading the 5 minute and 15 minute time frames only for a trade to lose. I spent so much time staring and I lost money. To me I rather do planning, set up multiple time frame charts, look at Supply and Demand areas, Support and Resistance, and know that there will be a high probability set up there. It minimizes time and frustration, and generates profit most of the time. I was so hesitant towards planning my trades, it was useless and I thought no one can accurately say price will turn at a zone. I liked just taking what the market gave me and trying to make money, but I realize that frustrates me. But that is part of the process, finding what you like and don't like. That itself is not simple.
  • #689
  • Oct 10, 2016 5:24pm Oct 10, 2016 5:24pm
I have deliberately refrained posting how I trade here but suffice to say almost all my trades are counter trades.
Hit 48% last month and over 10% now and have not had below 10% a month since 2016 Jan.This is not for boasting purpose but demonstrating that CT trades profitable as well if you know what you are doing.
You can join me at my thread Pivot trading with TDI (not selling shit or recruiting members for Skype group etc just demonstrating that it can be done)
below my trades for this month.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #690
  • Oct 10, 2016 5:37pm Oct 10, 2016 5:37pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Well I'll tell you how Davit comes up with a statistic like that, he makes it up. In reality, it is not accurate or indeed possible to put a statistic on price movement unless you refer to a specific time frame. So for example someone who trades off an hourly chart may only have a trending market once a week, whereas someone who trades off of a 1minute time frame or less will experience multiple trends in any one day. If he had read this thread properly, he would have seen that I do not talk about trends, I talk about momentum, which means...
That's rather presumptuous on your part that I make up "numbers"

This is from baby pips
One thing you should know about trends is that they are actually quite rare. Contrary to what you might think, prices really range 70-80 percent of the time. In other words, it is the norm for price to range.http://www.babypips.com/school/high-...ng-market.html

Based on my studies on harmonics and Elliot Wave theory that number is accurate.This was mentioned also some of the trading books I read in the past.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #691
  • Oct 10, 2016 5:48pm Oct 10, 2016 5:48pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Haven't read so much shit for a long time. I won't judge you too harshly though, in fact I won't judge you at all, because we all have our own path to trading success or failure, but the biggest mistake anyone can make is to imagine trading is simple, it isn't. Yes, we do tend to make it harder than it needs be, but those are psychological issues mainly. But the skill attached to correctly reading price movement and actually making money from it is incredibly difficult, which is why most people cannot do it. If you think that trading is...
I am not attacking you for the sake of it just observing that you think Too Slow is full of shit then assume he could be "one of the very few who have stuck with it long enough to make a living from it."I find your thinking illogical.You don't know how he trades thus comes across to you as "full of shit" but that's not about Too Slow but your ignorance how he really trades.You say "I wont judge you" after you wrote "Haven't read so much shit for a long time" you are just full of contradiction.
You can't judge something you don't understand...at least yet to understand.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #692
  • Oct 10, 2016 7:56pm Oct 10, 2016 7:56pm
Quoting rnsfrd
I think there is a misunderstanding of what is meant by saying "trading is simple." It doesn't mean anyone can open MT4, open an account and be profitable soon. Of course not. I think what I and a couple others are saying when we say "trading is simple," comes from the fact that you become profitable when trading "seems simple" to you.
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Mark Douglas stated "it does not take any talent to put a trade on. Anyone can open a chart, enter a trade and win."
The market doesn't care about the reason you entered.
When you win, it is because other people came into the market and made the market move in your direction.
When you lose, it is because other people came into the market and made the market move against your direction.
That can not be refuted.
Most of the trader talk is BS and ego driven.

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.

In trading, you can control:
What you trade
When you trade
Position size
Stop loss
When you exit.
You can not control anything else in trading.
Position size and stop loss are critical because they determine risk.
One other thing you can not control are the replies you get when you post in trading forums.
Green pips to all.
Cheers.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #693
  • Oct 11, 2016 9:47am Oct 11, 2016 9:47am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am not attacking you for the sake of it just observing that you think Too Slow is full of shit then assume he could be "one of the very few who have stuck with it long enough to make a living from it."I find your thinking illogical.You don't know how he trades thus comes across to you as "full of shit" but that's not about Too Slow but your ignorance how he really trades.You say "I wont judge you" after you wrote "Haven't read so much shit for a long time" you are just full of contradiction. You can't judge something you don't understand...at...
No contradiction at all, I never said he was full of shit, I said " haven't read so much shit ", referring to his comment about trading being simple, which it quite obviously is not. And " I won't judge you ", refers to the man behind the words, who may very well be a successful trader, not the words, which are separate. By acknowledging that he may be one of the few traders who make a living from it, I am inferring that I have no way of knowing, but that if he is, then he has probably forgotten how hard it was to get to where he is, or that he is not yet an accomplished trader and therefore has no right to call it simple.

If he is right, and trading is simple, then according to his analysis 95% of those who come into trading are too stupid ever to succeed, and we all know that that is not true. As I said above, trading is very complex, but the trick is to simplify it, not make it more complicated than it already is, which is in fact what most people do. If that is what Tooslow meant, then I agree with him.
  • #694
  • Oct 11, 2016 9:55am Oct 11, 2016 9:55am
Quoting Davit
{quote} That's rather presumptuous on your part that I make up "numbers" This is from baby pips One thing you should know about trends is that they are actually quite rare. Contrary to what you might think, prices really range 70-80 percent of the time. In other words, it is the norm for price to range.http://www.babypips.com/school/high-...ng-market.html Based on my studies on harmonics and Elliot Wave theory that number is accurate.This was mentioned also some of the trading books I read in the...
Yet I still wonder how did they define 'trend'? As Cat stated already, it is impossible to put such statistics on price. It is way too subjective to consider it as a fact. There are many ways to skin a cat (no pun intended), just because you make money by trading CT, it does not mean that traditional trend-following is not effective.
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #695
  • Edited 12:00pm Nov 18, 2016 11:48am | Edited 12:00pm
Why do so many traders persist in entering positions trying to capture the top or bottom of a move, against the run of the market and neglect those that go with it?

It is a question I have addressed above, but I do so again because every single trader that ever there was has been or still is guilty of it.

The logic, I think, goes like this :

The market falls heavily, and let's say that because it was off the London open, it was a very fast move and so difficult to catch. It falls because almost always, except for occasions when market moving news has been released, there is a clear technical reason why the money is flowing into the short side and not the other way round, although the London open is a notoriously dangerous time to trade, but often very profitable if you get it right.

Then support is found shortly after the initial down move ( there is usually a reason why this support has held, be it a moving average on one of the time frames, fib retracement, pivot level, or combination of these.) the price rises, and some traders, recognizing the support level, may have already bought. Then a level of resistance is reached, and the price stops rising. Those already in on the long side hold on in the hope that the price will continue to rise. Those not yet in either way think about going short as the price begins to roll over but don't because they fear that they will be selling into a market that has already turned, or rather, psychologically they see the price as neither at the top or bottom so they do nothing, feeling that the place to sell was above, and place to buy was below. They are caught by indecision and doubt. In fact, this is the very place a trader should be selling, after a pullback, with momentum on their side. But most don't do this, because it is a much easier decision to make when the price is what is considered to be at its low or at its high. If you're right, the price can go a long way, so in a trader's own mind the risk/reward is so much better than if he/she enters on a pullback when, because the price has already moved well away from its low or high, it somehow seems less attractive.

Then there is the stubbornness of a trader, that inner voice that says " I've missed the move, so no point risking money now by trying to jump in...better wait until it finds the bottom and go long "

This mentality is fatal for trading. The price always pulls back. Wait until it does, use your TA to determine whether it is likely to resume the directional move, and at or close to the point of rollover, trade with the overall momentum. Do not make the mistake of thinking you are mistakenly selling what is a rally pull back, because if momentum is on your side, it won't be, it will be a resumption of the initial move.

Remember, the markets love to fuck with our minds. They feint long when they are about to plummet south...reverse direction only to do so again, and generally make it extremely difficult to know where to get into a trade and even more difficult to know when to get out of one. No wonder so few succeed.

But there is a way. Learn all these tricks, and learn them on only one or at the most two forex pairs or indecis, because any trader who really knows how to trade will harvest more than enough pips in any one day off of just one pair.

Picking tops and bottoms can be done, more easily so if you are very good with your S&R levels and your SL is wide enough for the adverse moves that typify areas of directional change. But these areas offer the greatest risk, and they are where most traders get killed. Far better to trade pullbacks aggressively in the direction of the initial move, using a counter-trend line of you can get one in.

Hope that's not too much waffle...I know that trying to explain technical detail without the use of charts can be futile, but I have also tried to explain why so many traders fail to trade the pullbacks and opt for directional change instead, so hopefully, I have made at least a slither of sense.

Oh, and one last thing. Don't be afraid to use time frames smaller than 1 minute, though one minute can be small enough. This is because the finer detail you need to see to recognize when the price is about to resume the trend or momentum, can only be seen on the smaller time frames, and by smaller I mean anything down to 10 seconds, and anyone who says that it is impossible to trade such small time frames, and there are many, has either never done so, or simply doesn't know how to. If you have a small account, then you have no choice but to trade them, unless you want to blow your account in a handful of losing trades because your leverage was too high.
  • #696
  • Edited 11:10pm Nov 18, 2016 1:11pm | Edited 11:10pm
If the trader trades against a trend, it's going to be difficult and my experience tells me that's true and it's hard to deny that.

Having said that, almost every trend is a pullback of some sort of a much higher timeframe trend. For example, a 5m trend may be a pullback of the 1hr trend where this 1 hr trend is a pullback of the daily trend and so on.

So, the same trade can be taken by 2 traders, one trader sees it as a counter-trend and the other sees it as a pullback of a larger trend. The difference lies in the manner that individual trader sees the price at that level at that particular time.

We then zero in on the method that a trader trades with, trend following or counter-trend. If you are hard wired to trade counter-trend and that's your method you will feel comfortable with it because you are already mentally and psychologically set for it. The same with a trend trader who trades pullbacks.

Which brings me to my first para comment, I'm more inclined to trade pullbacks most of the time, yet I do trade counter-trend sometimes. But the main difference is I see such counter-trend trades as a pullback of a much larger trend. This means I could buy and sell on the same pair same day.

I do trade outright counter-trends too but it's only on very rare occasions where the conditions come up right. Otherwise, mostly when the trends are in full bloom are my profit taking moments. I certainly do not counter-trend trade from there.

My personal experience is it's very difficult to trade counter-trend where the deviation is unbounded for strong and protracted trends, it can go many more pips outside your calculations. And even so the risk is so high that a successful trade may not translate into large monetary gain because of the defensive money management deployed against the potential risk of ruin.

To the question why many traders trade counter-trend the tops and bottoms, it's due to our intuitive bias that what goes up must come down and that fits perfectly to our taught logic. On the other hand, the pullback level is not so clear where it appears as any random price level seen on the chart. This results in traders being indecisive as to what the price may do from there. So with tops and bottoms that stands out clearly on our chart counter-trend naturally becomes the more attractive method to trade with.

Another reason is due to our greed. For counter-trend trades we tend to imagine the potential pips what if the price swings back to where it came from. Whereas a pullback trade gives only a fraction of the entire move which appears less lucrative that's not worth the risk reward by their logical interpretation from what they see on the chart.

That's my point of view about trend and counter-trend trading and my personal experience with both.
  • #697
  • Nov 18, 2016 1:55pm Nov 18, 2016 1:55pm
Trading counter trend will give you less than 50% chances to win. Whether it's the M1 or the D1 trend.
  • #698
  • Nov 18, 2016 2:28pm Nov 18, 2016 2:28pm
Quoting Davit
I have deliberately refrained posting how I trade here but suffice to say almost all my trades are counter trades. Hit 48% last month and over 10% now and have not had below 10% a month since 2016 Jan.This is not for boasting purpose but demonstrating that CT trades profitable as well if you know what you are doing. You can join me at my thread Pivot trading with TDI (not selling shit or recruiting members for Skype group etc just demonstrating that it can be done) below my trades...
I'm sure you know that your balance could be going up and up while your losers are getting bigger and bigger (equity going down)...
...btw win rate means nothing, the average win rate is (in the longer run) somewhere between 40% to 60%, one can be win 90 trades but lose it all on 10 trades, one can lose 90 trades but gain back all with 10 trades.

And don't get me wrong (I don't know and don't care if you are winning or losing) but you are showing results only for 79 trades this couldn't be a tolerable measuring of your success on the longer term.
  • #699
  • Nov 18, 2016 2:55pm Nov 18, 2016 2:55pm
Quoting Davit
I have deliberately refrained posting how I trade here but suffice to say almost all my trades are counter trades. Hit 48% last month and over 10% now and have not had below 10% a month since 2016 Jan.This is not for boasting purpose but demonstrating that CT trades profitable as well if you know what you are doing. You can join me at my thread Pivot trading with TDI (not selling shit or recruiting members for Skype group etc just demonstrating that it can be done) below my trades...
Have you got a live account to show us , demo is for boys.
  • #700
  • Nov 18, 2016 6:27pm Nov 18, 2016 6:27pm
Quoting cat
Why do so many traders persist in entering positions trying to capture the top or bottom of a move, against the run of the market and neglect those that go with it? It is a question I have addressed above, but I do so again because every single trader that ever there was has been or still is guilty of it.... Picking tops and bottoms can be done, more easily so if you are very good with your S&R levels and your SL is wide enough for the adverse moves that typify areas of directional change.
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HOLO allows you to capture the top or bottom.
Very simple.
Chart period does not matter.
After price establishes the current highest open, only 2 things can happen:
1) price goes up
2) prices goes down.
Easy to see.
My preference is to use the H1 highest/lowest opens.
But it works on D1 and W1, also.
The one thing to avoid is the H4 Freight Train.
Big H4 candles have a tendency to be followed by another H4 candle in the same direction.

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