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New study shows only 1% of traders are consistently successful

  • #101
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:55pm Apr 3, 2010 11:55pm
Quoting Lionstrike
I mean entirely subjective, like intuition, yes. You know the Clever Hans phenomenon? Clever Hans was a horse a long time ago and everyone thought he was some sort of a mathematical genius. You see he had one trainer, and the trainer would pose to him a math question, and he would swipe the ground with his hoof multiple times to indicate his answer. Everyone in the crowd thought this was fantastic because he got the answers right. What nobody knew, including the trainer himself, was the Clever Hans was actually responding to small, minute changes...
Great story, I hadn't heard it before!
  • #102
  • Apr 4, 2010 4:47am Apr 4, 2010 4:47am
The 99% number clearly states that there must be an incredibly reliable system to move money from A to B in this business and this can not be explained with spread and commission only.[/quote]




At the risk of seeming tongue in cheek, can I suggest someone simply invents an EA which exploits this 99% failure rate? i.e. when one enters a trade, an opposite position with larger leverage is simultaneously opened (in other words, one becomes a bit like one's own broker). Thus, a person could quite happily trade 'unsuccessfully' as normal, as a member of the 99%, BUT still make a profit. The only downsides I can see might be that this system could perhaps produce a certain schizophrenia....which might end up making you more 'successful' in your trading (and thus unprofitable...). One would have to purposely trade as badly as possible...no SL, overtrading, no plan etc etc.........
  • #103
  • Nov 18, 2016 4:47am Nov 18, 2016 4:47am
Anymore updated studies ?
  • #104
  • Nov 19, 2016 2:11am Nov 19, 2016 2:11am
Big Boys, like pacman, eating stops, day in.. day out..
  • #105
  • Nov 19, 2016 6:11pm Nov 19, 2016 6:11pm
Quoting Topgun_1
We've all heard that "90% of people fail in trading." Another figure that is just as often used is "95%" fail at trading. BUT, has anyone actually seen any study proving these statements? Like many here, I have been curious as to whether the 90 - 95% of traders statistic had any truth to it. Well, I FINALLY found a study that gives an actual number in regards to the percentage of people that succeed in trading. An article was published in The New York Times a few days ago in which it cited a new, yet-to-be-published study that basically said only...
Thats discouraging. So out of 7 Billion people in this earth only 70 million will make it. I think I will go to the side of the corner of my room and cry
  • #106
  • Nov 22, 2016 1:38am Nov 22, 2016 1:38am
Could it be that they lack the needed knowledge to trade successfully or they are inconsistent with their trading strategies? I would advise traders who have lost a whole lot of money to try a figure out and correct the reason fo their failure.
  • #107
  • Nov 22, 2016 6:55am Nov 22, 2016 6:55am
Dont be fooled by these statistics !
I am profitable and if i was in that 1% group, that would mean that i am way much smarter than every body else , wich is not defenetly the case.
For that reason , there must be much more percentage of profitable traders in reality
  • #108
  • Nov 24, 2016 4:04am Nov 24, 2016 4:04am
Quoting Zemanel
Dont be fooled by these statistics ! I am profitable and if i was in that 1% group, that would mean that i am way much smarter than every body else , wich is not defenetly the case. For that reason , there must be much more percentage of profitable traders in reality
also how many people trade for just two weeks a mate of mine lost about 6K in 4 week's so he's part of the 99% but did not give himself good odd's as he just jump in feet first
  • #109
  • Edited 7:59am Dec 17, 2016 7:08am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Zemanel
Dont be fooled by these statistics ! I am profitable and if i was in that 1% group, that would mean that i am way much smarter than every body else , wich is not defenetly the case. For that reason , there must be much more percentage of profitable traders in reality
Â
It's 5-10% profitable. not 1.
There was research last year...
And the scarcity of VISIBLE profitable traders is because they stop posting Â
TraderDale, Tudor, igrok, Paul Deamon are few good ones.
Â
Do you have anything to show you are profitable??
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Anyway, it's NOT about smarts or math, that define forex success. I was smart and overthinking.... lost 4 accounts.
It's patience, tenacity, logic, reading, patience, management, knowing when NOT to trade, patience and few other things. And patience
Â
Got it?
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #110
  • Dec 17, 2016 8:17am Dec 17, 2016 8:17am
Being a profitable trader or successful trader is not the same thing as being a consistently profitable trader.

Many retail traders are very successful. And many management firms, with armies of traders are very successful, regardless of system, be it purely fundamental or purely systematic trend following, but if they are posting consistent profits, they are probably a Ponzi scheme of some sort. Everyone has draw downs, that's the cost of doing business. So take it in context of the question and how it's being answered. Any study about consistent profits is a waste of time in my opinion and pointless. That would be a bit like a weather forecasting doing a report on perfect weather for the next year.

Ask Bernie Madoff for advice if you are looking for a consistently profit system, he figured one out.

So yes, no one is consistently profitable, so maybe 1% is correct, who cares.
If you can learn the skill of trading and become profitable over the long term and that's more important.
I have been spending a great deal of time Learning about proper position sizing and risk management. Looking at Van Thorps' Work lately. Lots of great books out there on the subject too.

Forget what they say, trading is a skill and skills can be taught and learned. It won't be easy and it won't be fast but you can absolutely learn to do this.
  • #111
  • Dec 17, 2016 8:36am Dec 17, 2016 8:36am
More losers --> More money for the winners

They say it's a zero-sum game. So that's actually a good news for us. We are not here to grab $1000 a month, are we ?
Don't give up on your dreams. Keep sleeping.
  • #112
  • Dec 17, 2016 8:44am Dec 17, 2016 8:44am
...and in the end, the one who profitable in this forex business is broker
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
  • #113
  • Dec 17, 2016 10:03am Dec 17, 2016 10:03am
Gosh....2010 thread!!
Attached Image
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #114
  • Feb 7, 2017 8:49am Feb 7, 2017 8:49am
I'm in Central Florida and have bitten the bullet to get my lazy ass up at 3am to trade. Keeping it stupid simple, and damn....have not had a loosing trade yet. If I'm ahead, I'll trail 10 pips since it's going so fast. Yesterday +30 and today +32. I was setting it for only 20 pips, but it was going way beyond my 20 limit so I'll set a trail and WOW... Sooooooo happy with 30....but would have been just as happy with 20 pips.

Got tired of blowing up my account....I'm not a financial advisor, and don't pretend to be. But even I can see the pattern, and I've tried many.

So, I only trade the GBP/JPY....I'm looking at Bolinger Bands and Stoc at 3 am. Once my account gets back up (again!) I'll close out part at for 20pips, 30 and 50. That's the usual run at that time, 50 pips. I could also run it back up at 3:30am or 4am....but I'm staying at one successful trade a DAY and closing the computer.

This is working for me now...until it doesn't. Then we go back to square one, LOL.

IF anyone has a better method, lets hear it. But I have to tell you...the 3am is working for me now.

NB
  • #115
  • Feb 7, 2017 8:52am Feb 7, 2017 8:52am
Oh, one more thing. My dream is to be in a time zone where I DON'T have to get up at 3am. After a few months of positive trading at 3am, just may look into Brussels? Geneva? LOL.....do I have to learn the language?
  • #116
  • Feb 7, 2017 10:14am Feb 7, 2017 10:14am
Quoting TheBoxer
Oh, one more thing. My dream is to be in a time zone where I DON'T have to get up at 3am. After a few months of positive trading at 3am, just may look into Brussels? Geneva? LOL.....do I have to learn the language?
London might be a solution (tax free spread betting) - no foreign language (the AE/BE differences aside). If you make some very serious money have a look at Monaco - open border with France, close to Italy. Lovely tax free place in the sun at the Mediterranean sea and English is well understood. The property prices will however knock your socks off ...

The big question is your lifestyle. Night live? Dozens of concerts? There's hardly a better place than London.
  • #117
  • Feb 9, 2017 7:07am Feb 9, 2017 7:07am
I read recently that 40% of traders quit after one month. These are the ones that are looking for easy money and bail out when it ceases to look so easy. Others will quit after two months, three months, a year maybe. However, as a trader there really is no such thing as failure, there is only quitting before you succeed.

The important things you need to know are:

  1. Yes, there are traders that are consistently profitable; the exact percentage isn't important. The fact that such traders exist is proof that it can be done, and if someone else can learn to do it successfully then so can you.
  2. You have to approach trading as a professional. Okay, so you won't be profitable after a month, and most won't be profitable after a year or two. But compare that to other professions. It takes at least four years of 60 to 80 hours per week of study to earn a Bachelor's degree. And many professions also require post-graduate degrees and/or interneships. It takes a lot of study to be a professional at anything these days.
  3. Your chances of becoming successful as a trader are no worse than your chances of success in any other profession, if you invest a comparable amount of earnest effort in acquiring the skills.

Some people's outlook of trading is that it's a crap-shoot, "Yeah, you've only got a 1% chance of succeeding, so why try?" The guys that say that are one of the 40%. Let them quit. If you are prepared to invest the time required to be a professional, then there are no odds for you -- you will make it.

Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #118
  • Feb 9, 2017 7:34am Feb 9, 2017 7:34am
Did you just discover these odds lool 90% 95% 98% yoou can be nice and say 80% you can act smart and say 98.2344365784% . The fact is that from the get go without proper education , good understanding of Currencies, inflation how the global trade works. Political currency manipulation you will join ranks with all the other chartaholics.
  • #119
  • Feb 9, 2017 9:02am Feb 9, 2017 9:02am
They say 80 % of businesses fail ,doesn't stop people going into business.

The only consistent winners in this system are the banks that create the money ...everyone else has to risk working for it .
  • #120
  • Feb 10, 2017 9:34pm Feb 10, 2017 9:34pm
No, it won't stop me. I have lost big amount of money before, so i have made my mind that i will be a successful trader one day. Nothing is impossible, why other people can do it, why i cannot. There is a way indeed, must be not the normal way, but legal way, is all about mindset and psychology matters.
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