How much is a strategy worth? | Forex Factory

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How much is a strategy worth?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 12:51pm Nov 15, 2016 12:32pm | Edited 12:51pm
How much would you value a 100% win strategy if it were your creation.

Would you sell it or give it away.

What price would it have if you sold it.

Would you write a book and sell it at $25 a piece.

Would you auction it.

Would you keep it to yourself.

Would you give it away for free.

What would you be prepared to pay for that strategy.

What would you do, i am interested in this scenario.
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #2
  • Nov 15, 2016 1:36pm Nov 15, 2016 1:36pm
One Tip

"DONT YOU EVER TRADE WITH REAL MONEY"!

JUST STAY AWAY
  • #3
  • Nov 15, 2016 2:13pm Nov 15, 2016 2:13pm
Quoting hippiedog
How much would you value a 100% win strategy if it were your creation. Would you sell it or give it away. What price would it have if you sold it. Would you write a book and sell it at $25 a piece. Would you auction it. Would you keep it to yourself. Would you give it away for free. What would you be prepared to pay for that strategy. What would you do, i am interested in this scenario.
Hello! First of all, there is no such thing as 100% winning strategy.
Well, If I would have such a strategy I would definitely keep it just for me, I would not tell about it to no one, not even to my beloved mother, if you know what I mean!

All the best!!!

P.S. So, given my logic it is clear to me that if someone is trying to sell to me such 100 winning strategy I call it a bluf or a scam.
  • #4
  • Nov 15, 2016 2:24pm Nov 15, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting hippiedog
How much would you value a 100% win strategy if it were your creation. Would you sell it or give it away. What price would it have if you sold it. Would you write a book and sell it at $25 a piece. Would you auction it. Would you keep it to yourself. Would you give it away for free. What would you be prepared to pay for that strategy. What would you do, i am interested in this scenario.

I would use it to make a lot of money to live forever... but wait, Im doing it already, living forever thing, nothing has proved me wrong so far.

So - can we trade the systems?
Please add more indicators, I still see the real price! Thanks!
  • #5
  • Nov 15, 2016 2:34pm Nov 15, 2016 2:34pm
Quoting pipshaman
{quote} Hello! First of all, there is no such thing as 100% winning strategy. Well, If I would have such a strategy I would definitely keep it just for me, I would not tell about it to no one, not even to my beloved mother, if you know what I mean! All the best!!! P.S. So, given my logic it is clear to me that if someone is trying to sell to me such 100 winning strategy I call it a bluf or a scam.
100% winning trades? probably not

but i'm sure people can pull off 100% winning days, or at least weeks/months/years

it's relative

but if i had such system, i will not share it. unless of course you're a hot exotic girl, ...........eh not even then.

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  • #6
  • Nov 15, 2016 5:26pm Nov 15, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting hippiedog
How much would you value a 100% win strategy if it were your creation. Would you sell it or give it away. What price would it have if you sold it. Would you write a book and sell it at $25 a piece. Would you auction it. Would you keep it to yourself. Would you give it away for free. What would you be prepared to pay for that strategy. What would you do, i am interested in this scenario.
Mmmm.
How much would you value a 100% win strategy if it were your creation.
IMHO there is no such thing as a 100% win strategy.
Having said that, if I had really managed to create one, I would obviously value it very much.
A strategy is only as good as the trader is, unless perfectly coded and running without human intervention.

Would you sell it or give it away.
No, I would not sell it. I would not give it away. I would share hints and ideas of that particular strategy with other traders and steer them in the "right direction".

Would you keep it to yourself.
I have shared ideas of my strategy with other traders and steered them in the "right direction".

What price would it have if you sold it. Would you write a book and sell it at $25 a piece. Would you auction it.
Nah, there's those who can trade, those who cannot would do exactly that.

What would you be prepared to pay for that strategy.
Zero, nada, zilch. As I pointed out, even the dog's bollocks strategy can be totally worthless if the trader is no good.
So only, and only if the strategy is perfectly coded in an EA, running unattended on a live account with a verified track record of 500+ trades an intelligent investor would maybe be prepared to pay.

What would you do, i am interested in this scenario.
Setup a business and milk it !
1. setup a live acct on myfxbook or similar, verified track record etc. etc.
2. trade your strategy for at least 6 months
3. drop the word here and there
4. investors will come to you and enable you to setup a PAMM/MAM account. You'll take x% of the profits.

LuXing
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #7
  • Nov 15, 2016 6:32pm Nov 15, 2016 6:32pm
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In finance there is a simple concept called NET PRESENT VALUE aka Discounted Cash Flow.
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Given the invested amount, you can calculate your annual profits you are going to consume. These annual profits are discounted by an adequate refinancing rate (e.g. T Bond PLUS risk premium) and summed up.
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In addition you have to consider the maximum amount you can invest in your strategy without moving the market.
Example: My flagship strategy yields 30% a year, with a variation of +/- 15%. It is riskless in the respect, that there is no market price risk. Any move in the market, up or down, earns money. The only downside, the establishment of the position is costly. It can be compared to vola buying, but at much cheaper prices.
Anyway, my strategy could run at a size of US$ 1.000.000,- before my broker would adjust his prices, so I can expect an annual income of US$ 300.000,-. T-Bonds yield 3%, risk premium is 10%, voila my discount rate is 13%.

year annual income present value
1 300.000,- 265.500,-
2 300.000,- 235.000,-
3 300.000,- 208.000,-
4 300.000,- 184.000,-
5 300.000,- 163.000,-

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The further in the future the less is the present value of my income. I could value the income stream ad infinitum, but it is more prudent to give it a lifetime of 5 years. After 5 years I get my trading investment of 1.000.000,- back resulting in an additional present value for year 5 at the size of 543.000,-. My total present value is then 1.398.500,-. My NPV is 398.500,-.
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Assuming eternal trading, my NPV is [(300.000,-/0,13) 1.000.000,-] 1.308.000,-
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The higher the discount rate the smaller the value, the lower the discount the more precious the strategy.
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That was the pricing of the strategy, much harder is communicating a strategy. Communicating a strategy is actually only another form of financing it. If you put a price tag on your strategy, your potential buyer wants to know, whether it is worth it. Giving him the information puts you into the risk to end with empty hands. And so on. Finally most of the value of the strategy is pocketed by lawyers designing water proof agreements.
I have decided to keep my knowledge private and to grow internally to the strategys limit by re-investing my profits. Additionally I am documenting my trades preparing for my memoirs "How I arbitraged the XYZ-Broker".
  • #8
  • Nov 16, 2016 11:04am Nov 16, 2016 11:04am
100% - forget it, doesn't exist, so redundant pretending it does.

Neither is there any such thing as a winning strategy, because what wins in one trader's hands cannot be guaranteed to do the same in another's. I could give anyone my strategy and explain it thoroughly, but unless that person has my knowledge and experience of trading that particular strategy, they would not be able to replicate my results.

You see, strategies come through mileage in the markets, they are earned the hard way, and they are very personal. They must evolve with us, not be borrowed from some place else. Yes, take a strategy from somewhere, but make it your own.

This is why I scorn people who claim they have the miracle strategy, that all you have to do is follow to be a millionaire. This is the oldest scam in the world of trading. Don't fall for it.

Build your own strategy, get ideas from elsewhere, but build it yourself. Then when you have something you fully understand, something you can use to earn your fortune, then to you it will be worth its weight in gold, but to anyone else, it will be worthless, unless of course anyone you want to share it with is willing to put the same amount of time learning it that you have, because in this business, as any bonafide trader will tell you, there are no short cuts.
  • #9
  • Nov 16, 2016 11:10am Nov 16, 2016 11:10am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10
  • Nov 16, 2016 11:35am Nov 16, 2016 11:35am
Quoting hippiedog
How much would you value a 100% win strategy if it were your creation. Would you sell it or give it away. What price would it have if you sold it. Would you write a book and sell it at $25 a piece. Would you auction it. Would you keep it to yourself. Would you give it away for free. What would you be prepared to pay for that strategy. What would you do, i am interested in this scenario.
ZERO - run for your life. This is ridiculous on so many levels
  • #11
  • Nov 16, 2016 11:41am Nov 16, 2016 11:41am
Quoting hippiedog
How much would you value a 100% win strategy if it were your creation. Would you sell it or give it away. What price would it have if you sold it. Would you write a book and sell it at $25 a piece. Would you auction it. Would you keep it to yourself. Would you give it away for free. What would you be prepared to pay for that strategy. What would you do, i am interested in this scenario.
Ask GhostBiker man.

He/she knows.

He sells his 95% win rate for 2,000 euros.

You can try 10m euros and see.
  • #12
  • Nov 16, 2016 11:56am Nov 16, 2016 11:56am
Quoting TooSlow
{image}
Hi, sir. I'd like to tell you that the quote you posted is non-sense, and so is Shakespeare. No offense, but I do too have problems explaining something I know better than anyone else. That does not make me ignorant.
  • #13
  • Nov 16, 2016 11:57am Nov 16, 2016 11:57am
Sharing a 100% win strategy will turn the Earth into anarchy .

Those who sustain there are no secrets in trading , are the prey.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #14
  • Nov 16, 2016 12:37pm Nov 16, 2016 12:37pm
Quoting Noorx
{quote} Hi, sir. I'd like to tell you that the quote you posted is non-sense, and so is Shakespeare. No offense, but I do too have problems explaining something I know better than anyone else. That does not make me ignorant.
Einstein is known to speak non-sense.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #15
  • Nov 16, 2016 12:38pm Nov 16, 2016 12:38pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Einstein is known to speak non-sense.
And to be the greatest mind of our time.
  • #16
  • Nov 16, 2016 1:11pm Nov 16, 2016 1:11pm
100% winning strategy = "the goose that laid the golden egg". ÂNeither one exists, and even if it did... I certainly wouldn't sell it, auction it, Âor let anyone else even know I had it.
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  • #17
  • Nov 16, 2016 10:33pm Nov 16, 2016 10:33pm
Quoting timos
{quote} Ask GhostBiker man. He/she knows. He sells his 95% win rate for 2,000 euros. You can try 10m euros and see.
there is no 100% strategy.. and no one can predict green always... sometimes some system work .. sometimes dont....
  • #18
  • Nov 16, 2016 10:39pm Nov 16, 2016 10:39pm
Quoting hippiedog
How much would you value a 100% win strategy if it were your creation. Would you sell it or give it away. What price would it have if you sold it. Would you write a book and sell it at $25 a piece. Would you auction it. Would you keep it to yourself. Would you give it away for free. What would you be prepared to pay for that strategy. What would you do, i am interested in this scenario.
Strategy Worth = Your Valuable Time Of Learning And keep an eye on Market...

its all about learning and watching all over the stuff if u have much time to spend market then you will find what u need .. but that also for short time... and later u need to realize u need to switch strategy and theories to read the markets and trend.... it happens everytime when the markets goes crazy...


overall paying a strategy or theory is bunch of crap.. i did not recommend any things to buy to trade forex.
  • #19
  • Nov 21, 2016 3:14pm Nov 21, 2016 3:14pm
Of course i would want to share such strategy, but definitely not everything about. Because you have to keep somethings to yourself, that is what makes us different from other; what they don't know and we do!
  • #20
  • Nov 21, 2016 4:22pm Nov 21, 2016 4:22pm
I'd probably keep it to myself and bet all or nothing on every trade.
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