Daily Technical Analysis by Capital Street FX

SP500 Spikes After Treading Water In Early Trade – Long Position Suggested

U.S. stocks rallied after struggling to find direction in early trading, as Americans cast their ballots amid polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in the race to the White House.

The S&P 500 Index has risen nearly 0.6% on the day, set for its biggest back-to-back gain since June. Investors were awaiting the outcome of a tight U.S. presidential race. Polls will begin to close at 00:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the first meaningful results due about an hour later. The winner will be officially announced on the U.S. television networks a few hours later.

Updating the polls, Bloomberg reported that a provider of real-time analysis of voter turnout estimates that Clinton has earned more early votes than Trump in battleground states including Florida, Iowa and Nevada.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2145.00, take profit at 2155.00, stop loss at 2135.00

CVS Reports Improving Earnings Reports But Slashes Guidance

Shares of CVS Health Corp dropped more than 14% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the drugstore chain cut its 2016 adjusted earnings forecast and gave downbeat projections for the coming fiscal year. The company cited slowing prescription growth and its integrated model as factors that caused fewer people to fulfill retail prescriptions at its pharmacies.

CVS cut its 2016 adjusted earnings forecast to $5.77-$5.83 per share from its prior forecast of $5.81-$5.89 per share.

For its third quarter, CVS reported a profit that was rose from the same period last year. The company said its bottom line rose to $1.75 billion, or $1.64 per share, up from $1.43 billion, or $1.28 per share, in last year’s third quarter.

The No. 2 U.S. drugstore chain by store count announced revenue for the quarter rose 15.5% to $44.62 billion, compared to $38.64 billion last year. The increase was helped by strong demand for its pharmacy benefit management services, but missed the average analysts’ estimate of $45.29 billion.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 70.80, Take profit at 65.00, Stop loss at 75.00

Daily Report on November 09, 2016

Asian shares started the day higher but soon declined as Republican Donald Trump consistently took the lead over his rival, Democrat Hillary Clinton throughout the vote count. Markets in Japan, New Zealand, Hong Kong, etc. fell the most since at least since June 24 after Trump stunned investors by winning the White House race. The unexpected result of the U.S. presidential election sent markets into turmoil reminiscent of Brexit vote.

As global risk securities tumbled, traders flocked into safe-haven assets including the yen and gold. Gold soared as high as $1337.16 per ounce – the highest since September 27, while the pair USDJPY fell to over one-month lows at 101.183. Uncertainties over upcoming changes in the framework of the world, in terms of economies, national security and foreign policy roiled global markets.

European stocks and U.S. equity futures also plunged on Wednesday in the wake of Donald Trump's surprise victory. Investors had priced a win for Clinton, who was expected to bring stability and continuity to the financial market, especially regarding Trump's protectionist. However, the sell-off calmed as speculators took profit and after Trump's acceptance speech which was considered to be balanced and conciliatory.

Crude price fell almost 4% to the lowest since August in Asian trading but recovered some of its losses later. Oil’s slide on early trade was also due to a report by industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories rising by 4.4 million barrels last week. The U.S. government's official supply report is due for release later today.

Mexican Peso Scales Back After Hitting Record Low on Trump Win

The Mexican Peso pared earlier losses after having plunged as much as 13% on Wednesday, swept sharply lower by Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election.

The Republican Party nominee upended market expectations which had called for a White House win for Clinton, as the candidate promised more stability and continuity to the financial market.

The pair USDMXN rose to the record high at 20.769 peso per dollar amidst fears that Trump, who will become the 45th president of the United States, will renegotiate or even end free-trade agreements with countries including Mexico.

At the time of publication, the pair has dropped back below the 20.000 threshold and may find support at 19.500.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 19.900, take profit at 19.500, stop loss at 20.100

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Oil Recovers From Losses – Will Trump Be The Favourite For Oil Prices?

Crude oil prices ticked higher on Wednesday, recovering from initial fall after U.S. election result which called for a victory for Republican Party nominee Donald Trump.
U.S. oil prices fell almost 4% to as low as $43.05 per barrel in Asian trading hours before bouncing back to trade around $44.85 per barrel at the time of writing.
Weekly report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday was mixed as it showed a larger-than-expected rise in crude oil inventories but pointed to a decline in gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles.

Data from the U.S. EIA indicated that domestic crude supplies rose by 2.4 million barrels, while distillate fuel stocks were down 1.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 4. Reports from oil-field service company Baker Hughes Inc. last Friday showed U.S. oil production continued to rise as drillers add more rigs to the nation’s fields. The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by nine in the past week to 450.

The surprising U.S. election result sparked a flight from risky assets in Asian trade, which prompted traders from oil investments to find shelters at traditional havens such as gold or Japanese Yen. However, the fact that Donald had pledged to ease regulations that weighed on coal and petroleum sectors. In his presidential campaign, Trump had also promised to review a deal to lift sanctions on oil-rich Iran, while criticized Obama for participating in global efforts to curb climate change.

Crude prices pulled back from the 43.05 threshold where it also had to crawled back on twice since the start of September. As can be indicated by the RSI chart, the oil market rebounded near the oversold zone. The price is heading upwards but a resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is within the sight and may cause the price action to go sideways or retreat, as the market is still in the bearish zone.


Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 45.35, take profit at 46.00, stop loss at 45.00

AUD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

FromGMT 18:00 09/11/2016
TillGMT 21:00 09/11/2016

Buy at 80.600
Take profit at 81.500
Stop loss at 80.000

Daily Report on November 10, 2016

Asian shares rebounded from their steepest slide since Brexit while European equities opened higher, boosted by Donald Trump’s spending pledges in the U.S. While MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose by the most since February, futures on the U.S. benchmarks climbed after swinging wildly in the last session. Trump has signaled he would spend more than $500 billion to rebuild U.S. infrastructure and also pledged to lower taxes.

Bonds tumbled while the U.S. dollar advanced amid speculation Trump’s spending plans will fuel inflation and spur economic growth. According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, the market-implied probability of a December interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve, jumped above 80% after dropping to less than 50% as election results pointed to a Trump triumph.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams on Wednesday said that the case for gradual interest-rate increases “still makes sense to me.” St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard is expected comment on the policy outlook when he speaks at the Commerce Bank conference, in St. Louis on Thursday. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will be attending an annual gathering of central bankers from the Americas in Santiago, Chile.

New Zealand’s dollar fell after its central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a fresh record low at 1.75%. The RBNZ expressed concern about the currency’s strength as a strengthening NZD has weighed on the growth of New Zealand’s inflation, which is standing at 0.4% and remains far below the RBNZ’s target band.

The Yuan slipped to a six-year low as investors concern about China’s exports that will be hit under Trump’s presidency. The new president of the U.S. had called China a "grand master" at currency manipulation and threatened tariffs of up to 45% on imports from the Asian nation during his campaign.

Technicals
EURUSD

Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
EURUSD collapsed after soaring sharply in early trade yesterday. The pair has paired all of its gains which had brought the price to as high as 1.12988 – the peak in the last two months. A steep fall caused Euro to breached three major Fibonacci levels in a row and may send the pair to test the support at 1.08500 again. RSI index pointing downwards and short-term MA20 crossing over long-term MA50 support the down moves.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.09000, take profit at 1.08500, stop loss at 1.09300

USDCHF

Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart
USDCHF bottomed out at 0.95486 after falling off from as high as 0.98339 on Wednesday. The pair has recovered all of its losses before entered penetrating the trading range from 0.98600 to 0.99550. As the 20-period MA has converged with the 50-period MA, the pair is expected to re-attempt the upper boundary at 0.99550.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 0.98900, take profit at 0.99550, stop loss at 0.98500

AUDJPY

Fig: AUDJPY D1 Technical Chart
AUDJPY is struggling around the solid resistance at 81.500.The pair has had to reverse lower against this level four times since it breached the handle five months ago. A slide yesterday sent the ADX index – the gauge measuring the trend strength – to below 20. However, two MAs placed below the price action are supporting the uptrend to surge higher.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 81.900, take profit at 84.000, stop loss at 80.600

Natural Gas

Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart
Natural gas crawled back from the resistance at 2.720. The price has been under downward pressure from the short-term MA20 which may depress the price to as low as 2.573 – the 50% Fibonacci retracement. While the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, the ADX is at high level, indicating the downtrend.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 2.650, take profit at 2.573, stop loss at 2.700

GOLD

Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Gold bounced back after hitting a couple of moving averages. The metal vacillated strongly yesterday and had surged to one-and-a-half-month high before paring all of its gains. RSI reached the 50-line as gold corrected from the support at 1271.00. However, the precious metal may fall deeper, as weighed by two MAs hanging above the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1280.00, take profit at 1271.00, stop loss at 1285.00

SP500

Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart
U.S. SP500 index has enjoyed its steepest one-day advance on record. SP500 breached the resistance at 2155.00 and is on track to retest its all-time record high level at 2192.86 logged in mid-August. Soaring ADX index with +DI at high level consolidates further increases.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 2182.00, take profit at 2192.86, stop loss at 2172.00

Mylan Announces Profit Losses, Weighed by Lower EpiPen Sales

Shares of Mylan N.V. ( MYL ) fell 2.1% to $38.10 in late trading on Wednesday after the drugmaker announced its third-quarter results with a loss in earnings and a weaker-than-expected revenue.

Mylan posted a net loss of $119.8 million for the third quarter, or 23 cents per share, as the company had to set aside more money for a $465 million settlement with the U.S. Justice Department over Medicaid rebates for EpiPen announced last month. A year ago, Mylan generated a profit of $428.6 million, or 83 cents per share.

Excluding one-time items including the settlement expense, Mylan said it had adjusted earnings of $1.38 per share, which missed forecast calling for $1.45 EPS.

Third-quarter revenue increased to $3.06 billion from $2.70 billion the prior-year period thanks to acquisitions of Renaissance Acquisition Holdings in June and Meda AB two months later. However, Mylan’s revenue failed to reach analysts’ consensus of $3.12 billion.

The drugmaker sold fewer EpiPen emergency allergy shots last quarter amid speculations that a cheaper version of the product could be launched in the first half of December. EpiPen has been a major driver of profit at Mylan but the life-saving hand-held auto-injector has been criticized for a too high price. Under investigation over steep price increases for its EpiPen products, Mylan has offered a half-price, generic version of the medical device.

Due to the lack of wholesaler purchases in the quarter in anticipation of the upcoming generic launch, specialty net product sales declined 4% to $418.7 million from the prior-year period.

Mylan’s revenue was saved by generics segment whose sales increased 17% year over year to $2.61 billion in three months to September.
The company still faces investigations by the West Virginia attorney general and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, not to mention the fact that potential investigation by federal antitrust regulators, which have been urged by the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Mylan lowered its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings of $4.70 to $4.90 per share, and maintained 2018 earnings projection of $6 per share.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 39.05, Take profit at 40.40, Stop loss at 38. 85

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Copper Soars Nearly 7% As Trump’s Victory Promises Robust Growth

Copper led gains in commodities on Thursday, rising to a 16-month high, as the metal has been boosted by bets on a rise in infrastructure spending in the U.S.
Copper, which is regarded as a bellwether of the global economy due to its wide range of industrial uses, hit the highest level since mid-July, 2015 at $2.5508/lb.
The commodity looks set to close the week sharply higher amid speculation that Donald Trump’s expansionary fiscal policies and infrastructure improvements will boost metal prices worldwide.

In his victory speech, Trump stated that he would embark on a project to rebuild American infrastructure and would double U.S. economic growth.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 2.5400, take profit at 2.5630, stop loss at 2.5300


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GBP/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 17:10 10/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 10/11/2016

Buy at 133.600
Take profit at 135.000
Stop loss at 132.400

UR/GBP signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:30 11/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 11/11/2016

Sell at 0.86600
Take profit at 0.85900
Stop loss at 0.87300

Disney Gains in Pre-Market Trading As Rosy Outlook Overshadows Falling Profit

Shares of The Walt Disney Co. added 1.83% in the extended-trading hours on Thursday, as Chief Executive Robert Iger managed to rally hopes after the company announced disappointing earnings and revenue.

The media conglomerate reported net income of $1.77 billion, or $1.10 a share, on sales of $13.1 billion for the last quarter with cable networks’ operating income dropping $207 million year-over-year to $1.4 billion.

ESPN, the company’s sports-programming network contributed the largest part to the big earnings miss, as it was hit by lower advertising and affiliate revenue, not to mention higher costs for production and for rights to live sports broadcasts.

However Chief Executive Iger’s rosy outlook reassured investors. in Thursday’s conference call, Iger said that “To some extent, the causes of (subscriber) losses have abated,”, while added that Disney could reach the subscribers ESPN has lost through so-called skinny bundles as it has signed on to approaching efforts of smaller, internet-delivered programming bundles from Hulu and AT&T’s DirectTV.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 97.00, take profit at 99.00, stop loss at 96.00

Daily Report on November 11, 2016

Selloff in emerging markets deepened on Friday as investors concerned amid concern higher U.S. interest rates under incoming President Donald Trump will spark capital outflows from developing economy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.4 percent on views that Trump's tax cuts and spending plans will push up inflation, which paves the way for the Federal Reserve to hike rate.

On Wall Street overnight, Dow Jones industrial average smashed through its previous record high set in August by almost 1 percent. Another U.S. benchmark S&P 500 Index added 0.2 percent but the technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.8 percent as traders assessed Trump’s plan on immigration policy could prevent Silicon Valley from attracting talent from around the world as it does now.

Industrial metals extended their biggest weekly jump in five years with copper having rallied for the third consecutive week. The red metal has risen nearly 30% over the last three week and 18% since the start of this week to reach 17-month highs at $2.6740/lb. Chinese government’s new plan calling for additional spending on building and construction projects and the Donald Trump’s pledges on infrastructure improvements are reasons behind the rally.

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd witnessed Singles' Day sales surpassing last year's 91.2 billion yuan ($13.36 billion) total with nearly nine hours left on the clock. The annual event on Nov. 11 offers a benchmark for Alibaba's performance and an insight into China's swing to online shopping, especially via smartphones. The company on Friday said that 84% of sales in the first two hours were via mobile devices, up from last year.

Technicals
USDCAD

Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
USDCAD has been on a steady rise after trading sideways for more than 3 weeks. The pair reached its highest level since late-February on Wednesday at 1.35242 and is approaching the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.35731. Two MAs placed below the price action and an edging-higher RSI are supporting for the uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.35000, Take profit at 1.35730, Stop loss at 1.34650

AUDUSD

Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
AUDUSD resumed its downtrend after rebounding from the firm support at 0.75600. A short correction could not sustain the pair to trade above the 23.6% level. The Aussie fell back below this Fibonacci retracement again and looked set to breach the support at 0.75600 as the market is in favor of sellers. MA20 has penetrated the MA50 from above, indicating extended downtrend.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 0.75600, Take profit at 0.75100, Stop loss at 0.76000

CADJPY

Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart
CADJPY pulled back as the bullish momentum failed to support to pair to surpass the highest level since mid-October at 79.645. The price has broken below the 23.6% level at 78.636 but is facing a dynamic support which is the short-term MA20. However, with two lines of the Stochastic chart are pointing to the oversold zone, CADJPY is expected to cross over the MA20 to test the next Fib support at 38.2%.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 78.500, Take profit at 78.000, Stop loss at 78.700

Natural Gas

Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart
Natural Gas futures price keeps falling under downward pressure from two MAs moving above the price action. The short-term MA20 has consistently forced the price to reverse lower to approach the 50.0% again. Last time, this level has support the natural gas but this time, a breakout is likely to happen. Coupled with ADX that is soaring, a gap between +DI and –DI lines consolidating further declines.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 2.600, Take profit at 2.520, Stop loss at 2.645

WTI

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
WTI has been under downward pressure from two MAs hanging above the price action. The price crawled back after hitting the long-term MA50 at 45.47 and has fallen below the short-term MA20 as well. With RSI remaining in the bearish zone and pointing down, the crude price is expected to retest the support at 43.05.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 44.10, Take profit at 43.05, Stop loss at 44.60

FTSE100

Fig: FTSE 100 H4 Technical Chart
U.K. FTSE100 index has dropped back to the 23.6% retracement from the major threshold 7,000. The price action has crossed over both MAs and is likely to breach below the 23.6% level as can be seen from the chart, recent candles have been under strong bearish force with almost no or very short upper shadow. %K line is taking the lead over the %D line, suggesting further down moves.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 6731.00, Take profit at 6650.00, Stop loss at 6760.00

EURUSD Drops Steeply After Fed Fischer Consolidates December Rate Hike

Euro plunged to eight-month lows versus the U.S. dollar on Friday after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer strengthened the case for raising interest rate by the year’s end. The U.S. economic data on Friday also support the sentiment.

Speaking in a conference at the Central Bank of Chile, Fischer said “the case for removing accommodation gradually is quite strong” as the central bank has almost reached its goals for employment and price stability.

Fischer also expressed confidence that headwinds from financial markets “have generally improved’ compared to earlier this year thanks since initial market turbulence following the Britain’s June 23 referendum to leave the European Union had diminished. The Fed official stated that “I am cautiously optimistic that the drag on the U.S. economy and inflation from past dollar appreciation may have mostly worked itself out, and that foreign economies are on a somewhat more secure footing that poses smaller downside risks to the U.S. economy.”

As stated by data from the University of Michigan on Friday, consumer confidence rose to a five-month high in early November. The preliminary index of sentiment for the month climbed to 91.6 from 87.2 in October but it only reflected Americans’ optimism about the economy in the days before the presidential election concluded.
The final report for this month, which is scheduled for released on November 23th, will include additional interviews conducted through November 20th. The final version is expected to offer a full picture of how Donald Trump’s election as the 45th president of the U.S. has affected consumer attitudes.

The U.S. dollar has advanced for every single trading day since the start of this week and especially rallied against the Euro since the shock win of Republican Donald Trump amid speculation Trump’s spending plans will fuel inflation and spur economic growth. Fischer on Friday also talked about the need for more fiscal policy, saying more economic stimulus from the government would “ease the task of monetary policy.”

According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, the market-implied probability of a December interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve, jumped above 80% after dropping to less than 50% as election results pointed to a Trump victory.

EURUSD fell deeper below the 61.8% bar and even dropped lower than the last low at 1.08500 – the trough since October 03rd. As can be observed from recent candles, most of them has long upper shadows, which indicate strong bullish force at early trade was eventually overshadowed by sellers. The market has neared the oversold zone, therefore, a correction is likely to happen.

Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 1.08100, Take profit at 1.08500, Stop loss at 1.07900

After Trump’s Win, Economic Data and Fed’s Rate Hike Under The Spotlight

After a historic week with Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the U.S. presidential election, markets may refocus on economic data and any signs from the Federal Reserve that the U.S. interest rates will be increased in December.

The greenback has had an unforgettable Wednesday last week when it dropped strongly throughout the vote count process which pointed to a lead of the Republican Party nominee. However, the currency soon reclaimed its lost strength in the wake of President-elect Trump’s plans to end the country’s years of fiscal austerity.

The dollar hit its highest levels in nine months against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday, amid mounting expectations for a December rate hike. For the week, the U.S. dollar index advanced more than 2.0%, boosted by hopes that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will bolster economic growth and inflation, which in turn will prompt the Fed to tighten borrowing costs.

On Friday, Vice Chair Fischer said the central bank was close to achieving its two goals with the case of a hike relatively strong. Indeed, while the U.S. economy is close to full employment, with the jobless rate below 5%, Trump’s election promise to cut taxes and improve infrastructure could provide a big boost to both growth and inflation.

According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, investors are currently pricing an 82% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s final meeting of this year.
Official U.S. data on Thursday will likely show consumer price index inflation picked up slightly last month, up 0.4 percent on the month and 1.6 percent on the same month last year. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is expected to hit 2.2 percent.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to a number of the U.S. economic indicators including retail sales and so-called core retail sales on Tuesday, Producer Price Index and Industrial Production on Wednesday, and Building Permits and Consumer Price Index on Thursday. However, the focus next week will be on congressional testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday before the Joint Economic Committee. Fresh indications on whether interest rates will rise next month will be closely watched.

Sterling closed higher for the second consecutive week, rising nearly 600 pips against the U.S. dollar since its lows in late October. The Cable has enjoyed a steady rise thanks to short covering, rising gilt yields and fading concerns about the U.K. economy post Brexit.

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday called President-elect Donald Trump to congratulate him on his “hard-fought election campaign and victory.” According to the statement, May highlighted her intention to strengthen investment and bilateral trade with the U.S. in light of Brexit. She also noted that Britain and the U.S. “have always stood together as close allies.”

Mr. Trump, in turn, “strongly agreed” with this claim, saying the United Kingdom is “a very, very special place for me and our country” and invited Ms. May to visit him as soon as possible after he takes office in January.

Sterling will be in focus with data on CPI and Inflation Report Hearings on Tuesday, reports on employment on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday along with speeches from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor Nemat Shafik and newly appointed member of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee Michael Saunders.

In contrast to the Pound’s rally, the euro dropped to its lowest level since January on Friday, as U.S. dollar continuing to power higher. Most of next week’s Eurozone economic reports are second-tier, except for preliminary estimates of third quarter growth on Tuesday. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak on Monday and Friday. His views will be market moving.

Among commodity currencies, the New Zealand dollar fell deepest since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to a fresh record low on Thursday. The central bank said that it didn’t feel it’s necessary to cut rates again, but left the door for further stimulus open, saying “numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

In the coming week, investors will be eagerly waiting for reports on New Zealand’s retail sales and inflation numbers.

The Australian dollar was driven by commodity prices in the past week. The Aussie hit seven-month highs at 0.77771 against the U.S. dollar, boosted by the rally in copper and iron ore prices. However, the pair failed to sustain its bullish sentiment and fell off to one-month lows at 0.75246. The RBA minutes published on Tuesday and Australian employment reports due on Thursday are the main focus next week.

No major economic reports were released from Canada last week; therefore, the currency was driven by the movement of the U.S. dollar and the oil prices. With oil stumbling and Trump’s shock win which puts the North American Free Trade Agreement at risk, the Canadian dollar dropped to the lowest since late February on Friday. In the week ahead, the Statistics Canada will report about manufacturing sales for October on Wednesday, and consumer prices for the same month on Friday.

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Daily Report on November 14, 2016

The U.S. dollar hit a nine-month peak in Asia on Monday while shares of developing nations fell, as the victory of Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election on November 08th sent Treasury yields to multi-month highs. The outlook of faster domestic inflation and wider budget deficits in the U.S. triggered a massive sell off in Treasuries. Yields on the U.S. 10-year notes on Monday climbed to their highest since January at 2.21%, while 30-year government bonds reached 3%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar extended gains, driven by speculations that Trump’ spending plan will nudge the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December. According to the dollar futures contracts, investors are betting on an 84% chance that the Fed will make a move on its rates at its final meeting for the year next month.

In commodities, the rampant U.S. dollar depressed gold as the greenback-dominated asset becomes more expensive for purchasers holding other currencies. Gold lost 0.8% to $1,212 an ounce. However, industrial metals extended their bull run, with copper adding more than 1%.

Japan's economic growth was reported to expand for a third straight quarter, comfortably beating expectations in the July-September period. According to the Japanese Cabinet Office on Monday, the world's third-largest economy expanded by an annualized 2.2% in the third quarter, faster than the 0.9% increase markets had expected, as a rebound in exports compensated for continued weak domestic activity.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintained his optimistic view of the economy, which has been boosted by an improvement in the global economy. Nonetheless, he also acknowledged that fragile private consumption rendered companies hesitant to raise the prices of their goods and services. This is delaying achievement of the central bank's 2% inflation target.

Coupled with fears that president-elect Donald Trump will impose punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, disappointing retail sales growth is increasingly clouding the country economy’s outlook. Although fixed-asset investment quickened slightly in October thanks to the government’s spending on infrastructure to support growth, retail sales growth slowed to 10%, missing estimates for 10.7%.

Technicals
EURUSD

Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
The Euro fell deeper below the 1.28500 resistance on Monday and is approaching the lowest since early-January at 1.07150. As can be observed from the ADX chart, while the ADX index is on a rise, the –DI line has been pointing downwards, which indicates a weakening downtrend. This is understandable as the market has neared the oversold zone and a pullback is easy to happen.
Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 1.07150, Take profit at 1.07800, Stop loss at 1.06900.

AUDNZD

Fig: AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart
AUDNZD has breached the 38.2% retracement at 1.06300 and is attempting the resistance at 1.07000 with a strong uptrend. ADX index has soared above 20 level, confirming the up moves. While RSI has neared the overbought zone, a wide gap between the +DI and –DI line may fuel the pair to edge higher.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.06500, Take profit at 1.07000, Stop loss at 1.06290

EURCAD

Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart
EURCAD has broken below the 23.6% but it is struggling around the support at 1.45900 where it failed to cross over last week. Two MAs lingering above the price action has restrained the bullish sentiment and been exerting downward on the pair, consolidating further declines.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.45600, Take profit at 1.44800, Stop loss at 1.45900

SILVER

Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver on one hand failed to surpass the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 17.418, but on the other hand, the metal has been supported by the handle at 17.075. This level has forced silver to reverse higher three times since early June. However, the short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 from above, confirming the downtrend. A breakout is expected.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 17.070, Take profit at 16.780, Stop loss at 17.400

BRENT

Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart
U.K. Brent crude resumed its down moves following a small gap up on the opening. Dragged down by two MAs hanging above the price action, the commodity is on the verge of falling as low as the 38.2% retracement. The market remains in the bearish zone, with the divergence between the –DI and +DI lines.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 44.50, Take profit at 43.70, Stop loss at 45.00

SP500

Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart
Sp500 futures index opened the new week with a gap up on Monday after pulled back from the support at 2155.00 on Friday. The index has experienced a correction after soaring more than 6% last Wednesday. ADX line is heading down but the +DI has crossed over the –DI from below, suggesting an extended uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 2179.00, Take profit at 2188.00, Stop loss at 2174.00

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USD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 06:00 14/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 14/11/2016

Buy at 107.600
Take profit at 108.300
Stop loss at 107.300

Traders Cast Doubts on OPEC’s Output Cut Deal, WTI In Bearish Mood

U.S. crude (WTI) prices swung between gains and losses on Monday; weighed by concerns that global glut will remain over a long time as OPEC saw record output last month while U.S. rig count continued to rose last week.

NYMEX crude for December delivery held near $43.05 per barrel, the weakest level since September 20th. Oil has been under downward pressure since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Friday reported that its output rose to a record 33.64 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up 240,000 bpd from the previous month.

Investors are skeptical about OPEC’s plan to curb output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels a day reached in their meeting in Algeria late September. According to Algeria’s state news agency on Sunday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that it was imperative for OPEC members to reach a consensus on activating such deal.

However, investors are also concerned over the effectiveness of any agreement reached during the cartel’s Nov. 30 meeting, as not only are OPEC’s members namely Iran, Nigeria and Libya ramping up their output but U.S. oil producers are coming back to the market.

While Iran has been reported to open three oilfields with a total production of more than 220,000 bpd on Sunday, Baker Hughes on Friday also showed active drilling rigs in the U.S. rose by two to 452 in the week to Nov. 11, marking the 21th increase over the last 24 weeks.

Some analysts claimed that Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s U.S. election will open a chance for the domestic energy industry to be revitalized. Therefore, any agreement to cut output and support prices from some OPEC and non-OPEC members may be a victory for U.S. shale producers.

WTI crude price has been wobbled above the 43.05 support. This level proves to be a firm stance that has prevented price from falling deeper since the start of September. Crude price pulled back last Wednesday but failed to move past the 23.6% Fibonacci level. With the short-term MA20 having crossed the long-term MA50 from above, the commodity may test the 38.2% support at 42.20.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 43.00, Take profit at 42.20, Stop loss at 43.40

Cooler Weather Forecasts Send Natural Gas Higher

U.S. natural-gas futures reversed a long side to climb to their highest since November 08th on Monday, as weather forecasts showed patches of normal and below-normal temperatures across the East.

Futures for December delivery recently gained nearly 5% to $2.775 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as investors bet that a cooler weather will provide a boost in demand that help deplete record inventory levels of natural gas.

The Energy Information Administration last Thursday reported that U.S. natural-gas supplies climbed to a record 4.017 trillion cubic feet for the week ended November 04th.

About half of all U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, thus the fuel market’s movements in the winter are often determined by the amount of cold in weather forecasts.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 2.760, Take profit at 2.800, Stop loss at 2.740

Start Trading Forex, Indices, Commodities And Hundreds of Other Markets With Capital Street FX Now!

Traders Cast Doubts on OPEC’s Output Cut Deal, WTI In Bearish Mood

U.S. crude (WTI) prices swung between gains and losses on Monday; weighed by concerns that global glut will remain over a long time as OPEC saw record output last month while U.S. rig count continued to rose last week.

NYMEX crude for December delivery held near $43.05 per barrel, the weakest level since September 20th. Oil has been under downward pressure since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Friday reported that its output rose to a record 33.64 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up 240,000 bpd from the previous month.

Investors are skeptical about OPEC’s plan to curb output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels a day reached in their meeting in Algeria late September. According to Algeria’s state news agency on Sunday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that it was imperative for OPEC members to reach a consensus on activating such deal.

However, investors are also concerned over the effectiveness of any agreement reached during the cartel’s Nov. 30 meeting, as not only are OPEC’s members namely Iran, Nigeria and Libya ramping up their output but U.S. oil producers are coming back to the market.

While Iran has been reported to open three oilfields with a total production of more than 220,000 bpd on Sunday, Baker Hughes on Friday also showed active drilling rigs in the U.S. rose by two to 452 in the week to Nov. 11, marking the 21th increase over the last 24 weeks.

Some analysts claimed that Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s U.S. election will open a chance for the domestic energy industry to be revitalized. Therefore, any agreement to cut output and support prices from some OPEC and non-OPEC members may be a victory for U.S. shale producers.

WTI crude price has been wobbled above the 43.05 support. This level proves to be a firm stance that has prevented price from falling deeper since the start of September. Crude price pulled back last Wednesday but failed to move past the 23.6% Fibonacci level. With the short-term MA20 having crossed the long-term MA50 from above, the commodity may test the 38.2% support at 42.20.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 43.00, Take profit at 42.20, Stop loss at 43.40

Start Trading Forex, Indices, Commodities And Hundreds of Other Markets With Capital Street FX Now!