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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,241
  • Nov 7, 2016 2:39pm Nov 7, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting The Fool
Bot a SPX call diag at the open, Nov21/Nov23 2160/2165....it filled at $0.00....been trying to take it off at 65c....nothing like fast money.
thin volume @ the long call strike, I will have to wait...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,242
  • Edited 2:04am Nov 8, 2016 1:32am | Edited 2:04am
BAC hasn't traded above $20 in almost exactly 8 years. It last split in 2004. It traded above $40 for years after that. Then of course the great unpleasantness. It popped a 50c move today....if the CB's of the world start returning to sanity, led by the Fed, then financial stocks might regain some of their former health.

The are some crazy bull vert call deals in long-dated BAC options, like what is shown and even longer, like Jan '18 $25/$30 for 9c debit (technically, risk $9 to make $500), and so on...

BAC has been chugging north about $1/month since the Brexit vote.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,243
  • Nov 8, 2016 11:43am Nov 8, 2016 11:43am
Quoting The Fool
The are some crazy bull vert call deals in long-dated BAC options, like what is shown and even longer, like Jan '18 $25/$30 for 9c debit (technically, risk $9 to make $500), and so on... BAC
I filled a set @ 11c.....I like having some long dated trades in the mix, gives me something to look at...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,244
  • Nov 8, 2016 11:52am Nov 8, 2016 11:52am
Quoting The Fool
having cashed in some 11/04 spreads already, I would like to see a pullback in the ^VIX Friday...I suppose US equities are going to gum up for the next few days, until Nov 09....I have some VIX Nov09 $18/20/22 call flys, bot for 12c, looking to net out 50c, will need ^VIX to pull back and pin 20 by Mon-Tues, we'll see....
gum, not....VIX fly came off for 5c, a net loss. I have several more UVXY and VXX spreads set up for 11/11 and 11/18, will allow to run in case there be a post-election sell-off. All in all, long vol trades for the election event are likely gonna be somewhere around b/e....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,245
  • Edited 1:11pm Nov 8, 2016 12:29pm | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting The Fool
Bot a SPX call diag at the open, Nov21/Nov23 2160/2165....it filled at $0.00....been trying to take it off at 65c....nothing like fast money.
can't get a decent fill to close.....crazy wide spreads on thin volume....the downside of SPX

...want out of this one as SPX will likely push out past the b/e well before expiry and hand me a loss
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,246
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:38am Nov 9, 2016 2:38am
actually saw this tip from a "Guest" in a news comments section. Since HRC was Big Pharma's bad dream...perhaps the bad dream is over? IBB to head back above $300? I like the Dec/Jan $335 calendar calls for 15c...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,247
  • Edited 9:08am Nov 9, 2016 8:30am | Edited 9:08am
IBB spiking $20 at the open....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,248
  • Nov 9, 2016 9:01am Nov 9, 2016 9:01am
Quoting The Fool
IBB to head back above $300? I like the Dec/Jan $335 calendar calls for 15c...
I filled the same idea at $360 for 15c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,249
  • Nov 9, 2016 9:25am Nov 9, 2016 9:25am
I am sitting on Nov 11 and Nov 18 VXX and UVXY long vol spreads - also added 11/18 UVXY $18.5/19 bull vert for 8c.....markets may not give clear signal about election reaction right away, but I think more volatility is likely
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,250
  • Nov 9, 2016 1:42pm Nov 9, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting The Fool
There are some crazy bull vert call deals in long-dated BAC options, like what is shown and even longer, like Jan '18 $25/$30 for 9c debit (technically, risk $9 to make $500), and so on... BAC has been chugging north about $1/month since the Brexit vote.
BAC, WFC, even DB are looking good in my books. Also TLT put spreads. long vol trades via UVXY, etc - not so much. They are there for multiple reasons, going worthless is one of them (i.e., as a hedge,) ....just very hard to trade that long vol when every vol spike is immediately crushed with extreme prejudice...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,251
  • Edited Nov 10, 2016 1:38am Nov 9, 2016 9:52pm | Edited Nov 10, 2016 1:38am
Quoting The Fool
actually saw this tip from a "Guest" in a news comments section. Since HRC was Big Pharma's bad dream...perhaps the bad dream is over? IBB to head back above $300? I like the Dec/Jan $335 calendar calls for 15c...
IBB had a huge range today, over $40...if it can do that much more by Dec opex, I will be happy....this crazy thing risks $150 to make maxP >$6,500 on the spread. .....it's modeled @ a 5% iv reduction and has a b/e at $320, approx...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,252
  • Nov 10, 2016 1:45am Nov 10, 2016 1:45am
a tale of two BTFD - Brexit Vote and US elections, 2016
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,253
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:25am Nov 10, 2016 2:25am
some of the green weekly candles the financial stocks are painting are already of historic note, and there's 2 days left for the week. The big gainers for the Pres election btfd have been the Big Pharma and financial stocks, as the elimination of HRC and the Trump presidency promise a dose of deregulation for both sectors. The prospects for the Financials are also helped by Fed rate normalization, long overdue to get rolling in 2017. Some of the healthier names should be printing new ath's in the Trump honeymoon.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,254
  • Nov 10, 2016 3:14am Nov 10, 2016 3:14am
XLF barely traded above $30 before the subprime crisis, since then been a 8-yr grind up from sub $5. Will print one of its biggest green week candles ever this week, maybe close above $21. The Jan $23 calls are 4c. Feb $23C @ nearly the same, but no volume. You could do a calendar between the two for 1c but may have trouble filling. Might be fun to take a shot at the Jan $23C, with enough numbers to take some off early in a Santa rally...a 100-lot trade debits me $485 and could net near $20k on an epic bump to $25 by Jan opex.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,255
  • Nov 10, 2016 3:20am Nov 10, 2016 3:20am
here's why...
http://www.cutimes.com/2016/11/09/tr...-of-dodd-frank
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,256
  • Edited 6:25pm Nov 10, 2016 6:13pm | Edited 6:25pm
Friday trades: bot 12/23 XLF $24 calls @ 2c. XLF gained a little over $2 on the week (near epic), finishing at $21.64, and if it can do even half that on average for the next 4-6 weeks, my 2c bet could pay well over $1.00....maybe over $2

I tried a lot of spreads on GS but was constantly chasing it, finally filled some small sets of GS 12/23 bull vert calls, $222.5/$225, for 20c

I will be shopping the Financials some more, as I expect they will be the luckiest beneficiaries of the Republican takeover.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,257
  • Nov 10, 2016 8:30pm Nov 10, 2016 8:30pm
Also today (lol I keep thinking it's Friday cuz tomorrow is Veterans Day, which I get off), closed a SPX Nov11/Nov14 2180 call calendar @ $2.35 - in that for 65c, so a healthy 3 bag.

I am in the Nov18/Nov21 2160/2165 call diagonal, with expiry finish as shown. Been trying to get out of it but not too worried, yet....just need a little pullback to make good money. Got in that for $0.00 and hope to exit for > $2, maxP could be $3.50 with a perfect finish on 11/18 of 2155 +/- 5 or so.

Note the extreme risk on the right side, ergo why I have been trying to get out. Only toward the end of the day today did I see a profit of around 60c.....if there be a pullback Friday I might take a buck and call it good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-10_1829spx1.png Size: 77 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,258
  • Nov 10, 2016 10:30pm Nov 10, 2016 10:30pm
Quoting The Fool
Note the extreme risk on the right side,
yes & is why I don't trade diags that often, although when they work out it's verr nice. I prefer cheap calendars about a week out when the index is grinding up/down in a well-behaved way....anyway, these SPX spreads - calendars, verts, diags, and flys, in that order pretty much - that's the bread & butter now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-10_2023spx2.png Size: 72 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,259
  • Nov 11, 2016 12:14am Nov 11, 2016 12:14am
stacking narrow-ish SPX put flys, pays better than long vol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-10_2210spx4.png Size: 96 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,260
  • Nov 11, 2016 2:14pm Nov 11, 2016 2:14pm
Dude! What did you do to my market while I was on vacation?!
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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