jnevins,
the inversions can occur at the end of the cycle only (between I-9 and I-2 of the next cycle) - see red lines.
There is another Spread indicator which highs indicate an important low of the indices (see lows 2003 and 2009).
The data can be seen at a Fed site: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
Sixer
the inversions can occur at the end of the cycle only (between I-9 and I-2 of the next cycle) - see red lines.
There is another Spread indicator which highs indicate an important low of the indices (see lows 2003 and 2009).
The data can be seen at a Fed site: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
Sixer
Attached File(s)