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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,221
  • Oct 30, 2016 8:46pm Oct 30, 2016 8:46pm
http://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfri.../#34dbb788432f

TLT to $120 or lower by Jan opex - $117 calendar puts (Dec/Jan) nets 10bag plus, if it really runs right maybe you let some long puts run Dec-Jan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-30_1837TLT.png Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-30_1840TLT2.png Size: 64 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,222
  • Oct 30, 2016 9:02pm Oct 30, 2016 9:02pm
Dec put fly @ $123/120/117 costs a tad less and pays more, but does not give you the option of letting Jan long puts run like the calendar does...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-30_1900tlt3.png Size: 64 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,223
  • Oct 30, 2016 9:17pm Oct 30, 2016 9:17pm
TLT rallied in Jan 2015, as stocks dipped after the first ffr hike in 1,000,000 years. Buy rumor sell fact....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-30_1915tlt4.png Size: 87 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,224
  • Nov 1, 2016 2:58pm Nov 1, 2016 2:58pm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/equit...152238509.html
I continue to add to UVXY, VIX, and VXX spreads for 11/4, 11/9, 11/11, and 11/18 expiries..

filled UVXY 11/11 fly calls, $23/25/27 for 10c
filled UVXY 11/4 vert calls $19/$19.50 for 10c

filled 11/11 UVXY vert calls $20/$20.50 for 12c
etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,225
  • Nov 1, 2016 8:33pm Nov 1, 2016 8:33pm
finally the spoos looks like it could make some decent moves, I need $210 for this SPY put fly to b/e by Friday....$204-$206 gets 10bag on Friday but that might be a stretch.....anything can happen ... I'll be happy with $208 or lower towards the sweet spot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-01_1828spy1.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,226
  • Nov 1, 2016 10:08pm Nov 1, 2016 10:08pm
rising iv's spreads the b/e's on these spreads, just hard to lose long vol spreads if you get some movement in the markets, I like these narrow flys cuz they're cheap....in for 12c & trying to net out 60c by Friday, might have to cash it in early if the ^VIX motors hard north
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-01_2001uvxy9.png Size: 74 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,227
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:43am Nov 2, 2016 9:43am
http://screencast.com/t/Tgpgi2X7AT
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,228
  • Nov 2, 2016 8:00pm Nov 2, 2016 8:00pm
Quoting The Fool
finally the spoos looks like it could make some decent moves, I need $210 for this SPY put fly to b/e by Friday....$204-$206 gets 10bag on Friday but that might be a stretch.....anything can happen ... I'll be happy with $208 or lower towards the sweet spot
I closed the SPY fly above @ 3+ bag net. When you are sitting in profit near the thin ends of the P/L it is hard to hang in til expiry, I took the coward's path and sure money....this always the crux in trading - 3bag in the hand or 10+bag glory ....maybe...in another couple days. Well I have watched too many 2- or 3-baggers go to bust, so no regrets. If it had been sitting in the middle I would've held. If I had traded 20 instead of 6 sure I would've taken 1/2 off and let the rest run. Water under bridge now.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,229
  • Nov 3, 2016 2:22pm Nov 3, 2016 2:22pm
coming down to the wire for 11/04 spreads. I took some of the UVXY $18/20/22 fly calls off @ 5bag, there's another 5bag there with a perfect finish @ $20 tomorrow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-03_1202uvxy.png Size: 79 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,230
  • Nov 3, 2016 3:16pm Nov 3, 2016 3:16pm
Quoting The Fool
coming down to the wire for 11/04 spreads. I took some of the UVXY $18/20/22 fly calls off @ 5bag, there's another 5bag there with a perfect finish @ $20 tomorrow
actually, I took all 11/04 UVXY spreads off today, as I fear he will keep truckin northbound away from my sweet zones. 5-6bag on the $18/20/22 flys
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,231
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:23am Nov 4, 2016 2:23am
having cashed in some 11/04 spreads already, I would like to see a pullback in the ^VIX Friday...I suppose US equities are going to gum up for the next few days, until Nov 09....I have some VIX Nov09 $18/20/22 call flys, bot for 12c, looking to net out 50c, will need ^VIX to pull back and pin 20 by Mon-Tues, we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,232
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:36am Nov 4, 2016 2:36am
I'm looking for a TLT spike in post-election chaos, if that comes, the calendar shown gets me into the 11/18 week with long $137 calls, would expect TLT to make a $10 run up in 5-10 td's
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-04_0031tlt.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-04_0033tlt2.png Size: 64 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,233
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:51am Nov 4, 2016 4:51am
Quoting The Fool
coming down to the wire for 11/04 spreads. I took some of the UVXY $18/20/22 fly calls off @ 5bag, there's another 5bag there with a perfect finish @ $20 tomorrow {image}
Nice job
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #14,234
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:54pm Nov 4, 2016 3:54pm
last trade of the week, cashed out of Nov04 UVXY $19/$19.5 vert calls @ 4bag. I surmised the spoos would finish red today, and waited til near the very end to close the vert mentioned, meant an extra 15c.....

Verts the way to go on the wilder ^VIX based options, as I have some flys that are already behind the curve.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,235
  • Nov 5, 2016 2:43pm Nov 5, 2016 2:43pm
possible trades for Monday load. DC has 10bag potential either side
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-05_1247dc.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,236
  • Nov 6, 2016 1:04am Nov 6, 2016 1:04am
VXX will trade sub-$30. When? In 2-3 weeks if the ^vix spike we are in does what they usually do and crashes back. This would mean the election-related angst is washed away and markets are rallying.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-05_2247vxx.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-05_2257vxxcal.png Size: 72 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,237
  • Nov 6, 2016 10:07pm Nov 6, 2016 10:07pm
HiYield to bounce post-election with a ^VIX crash? Fill the spread shown for 1c? Well, I will go up to a nickel.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-06_2002hyg.png Size: 63 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,238
  • Nov 6, 2016 10:27pm Nov 6, 2016 10:27pm
Quoting The Fool
TLT to $120 or lower by Jan opex - $117 calendar puts (Dec/Jan) nets 10bag plus, if it really runs right maybe you let some long puts run Dec-Jan
The TLT calendar shown at top of page is still there, a few centavos cheaper....could come up to Dec16/Jan23 $118 puts for 15c....get past the election, see stocks rally, and a rate hike at the Dec FOMC, the long bond should give up some ground.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,239
  • Nov 7, 2016 12:38pm Nov 7, 2016 12:38pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-percent-again
"If the early stages of inflation, which are now developing, would take hold, you could get -- fairly soon -- a fairly major shift away from these extraordinarily low yields on 10-year notes, for example, Greenspan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Monday. I think up in the area of 3 to 4, or 5 percent, eventually. Thats what its been historically."

Add 75 bps for the long bond? That (i.e. 5%) would push TLT down to the lows of 2007, down around $85. Not gonna be overnight, but hey, shit happens.

Gotta run the gauntlet of EU disintegration, WW III, etc, but no biggie.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,240
  • Nov 7, 2016 12:59pm Nov 7, 2016 12:59pm
Bot a SPX call diag at the open, Nov21/Nov23 2160/2165....it filled at $0.00....been trying to take it off at 65c....nothing like fast money.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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