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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #961
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:42am Nov 1, 2016 11:42am
I would be looking for Long trades, waiting for an entry signal, like a new bar breakthrough.

Attached Image
  • #962
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:52am Nov 1, 2016 11:52am
Quoting ThinkFX
I would be looking for Long trades, waiting for an entry signal, like a new bar breakthrough. {image}
Good risk/reward you are showing there to go long, but i think fundamentals drive this lower. If that lower line breaks we are seeing much lower prices med term. (at least $36) Happy Trading
  • #963
  • Nov 1, 2016 1:57pm Nov 1, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting Punter447
{quote} Good risk/reward you are showing there to go long, but i think fundamentals drive this lower. If that lower line breaks we are seeing much lower prices med term. (at least $36) Happy Trading
I agree, if there is a trend break, we can go far lower. Fundamentals in my understanding are not clear, while OPEP and Russians trying to talk, US inventories shorting, drills lowering, but demand and production going well.

So I prefer to look for technical analysis instead by now.

Good Trading.
  • #964
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:13am Nov 2, 2016 6:13am
As far as I am concerned oil correction is done. I expect oil to close above 46.10 today (currently 45.77).
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #965
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:48am Nov 2, 2016 9:48am
Quoting Punter447
{quote} Good risk/reward you are showing there to go long, but i think fundamentals drive this lower. If that lower line breaks we are seeing much lower prices med term. (at least $36) Happy Trading
Hey ThinkFX,
It plummeted with 4% percent for the last couple of days and it is on a 5 week low. Sensing a strong bearish momentum. If there is a breakthrough below 45.80 – 46.10, I would suggest going short.
  • #966
  • Nov 2, 2016 10:31am Nov 2, 2016 10:31am
Isn't it already below 45.80?
  • #967
  • Nov 3, 2016 7:00am Nov 3, 2016 7:00am
Hello Ullic,

It broke my Pitchfork formation, sow might be looking for a new lower parallel out of pitchfork.
Now OIL is making a "abc" correction, that might confirm going short once "C" point can be confirmed around 46, 46.2.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #968
  • Nov 3, 2016 10:48am Nov 3, 2016 10:48am
Quoting manosk
As far as I am concerned oil correction is done. I expect oil to close above 46.10 today (currently 45.77).
Unfair now since time has passed but this correction is not over -not even close. Over the next few months we go lower and lower (with OPEC/Russia manipulation in between). We'll break into $30 handle at least. #timestamp #multimonthoutlook
  • #969
  • Nov 3, 2016 10:54am Nov 3, 2016 10:54am
Quoting Punter447
{quote} Unfair now since time has passed but this correction is not over -not even close. Over the next few months we go lower and lower (with OPEC/Russia manipulation in between). We'll break into $30 handle at least. #timestamp #multimonthoutlook
It is true that I expected this retracement to be part of the up move but it seems like, unless something fundamental happens (OPEC agrees something), it is changing trend in fact. As a bull I am definitely not very comfortable at these levels.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #970
  • Nov 3, 2016 11:01am Nov 3, 2016 11:01am
Quoting Punter447
{quote} Unfair now since time has passed but this correction is not over -not even close. Over the next few months we go lower and lower (with OPEC/Russia manipulation in between). We'll break into $30 handle at least. #timestamp #multimonthoutlook
the thing is that I know the oil market is mega manipulated so I am very careful to make predictions on the short side because when it seems like they cannot agree and oil will collapse they suddenly come together and it spikes. And fact is that they prefer higher than lower oil prices as producers....so everything else is just strategy
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #971
  • Nov 3, 2016 12:12pm Nov 3, 2016 12:12pm
You are right. We have to look short term,

Anyway, I was out following a trade. I took A short once the low correction was broken at 45.38.

First TP was planed to be taken be at last low 44.3, already closed at 44.45.

Now Second half, SL at break even, and looking for 43.00

Good trading.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #972
  • Nov 3, 2016 12:31pm Nov 3, 2016 12:31pm
Quoting ThinkFX
You are right. We have to look short term, Anyway, I was out following a trade. I took A short once the low correction was broken at 45.38. First TP was planed to be taken be at last low 44.3, already closed at 44.45. Now Second half, SL at break even, and looking for 43.00 Good trading. {image}
nice, well done
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #973
  • Nov 4, 2016 5:12am Nov 4, 2016 5:12am
The success of the OPEC deal by November is very fundamental to the stability of oil prices. For one thing,if this deal is not reached, we may suffer oversupply especially with Iran resuming production in heavy capacity.
  • #974
  • Nov 4, 2016 9:27am Nov 4, 2016 9:27am
Quoting manosk
{quote} the thing is that I know the oil market is mega manipulated so I am very careful to make predictions on the short side because when it seems like they cannot agree and oil will collapse they suddenly come together and it spikes. And fact is that they prefer higher than lower oil prices as producers....so everything else is just strategy
Extremely manipulated indeed. I just dont see a driver to get this to go north LT yet. As soon as it hits 50+ more and more US rigs come online which will cap it. Growth is slowing globally and many of these countries financing are run from their oil output. They cant cut back if their budgets dont allow it and when they all hate each other or dont want to give up market share (and what the US is doing) I think the better bet is to drive competitors out (they need these debt ridden US firms at least to go belly-up). So Im sticking with oil heading lower again to cut off supply before we see the 60+ range. .. or not
  • #975
  • Nov 15, 2016 1:22am Nov 15, 2016 1:22am
Do you guys have any recommendations on what broker to use for trading Crude Oil? The lowest spread I found was 5.
  • #976
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:54am Nov 17, 2016 12:54am
BRENT CRUDE (DAILY)

Some fundamental confusion: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUSKBN13A068

Chart:
Hammer at support with positive response triggered a range trade from support to resistance (nothing clever). Price has been capped at the 200sma.
Looking to buy dips towards 50.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade safe, manage risk, use a stop.
  • #977
  • Nov 21, 2016 7:42am Nov 21, 2016 7:42am
Quoting JimmyC
BRENT CRUDE (DAILY) Some fundamental confusion: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUSKBN13A068 Chart: Hammer at support with positive response triggered a range trade from support to resistance (nothing clever). Price has been capped at the 200sma. Looking to buy dips towards 50. {image} Trade safe, manage risk, use a stop.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...price-forecast
  • #978
  • Nov 22, 2016 2:51am Nov 22, 2016 2:51am
Quoting JimmyC
BRENT CRUDE (DAILY) Some fundamental confusion: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUSKBN13A068 Chart: Hammer at support with positive response triggered a range trade from support to resistance (nothing clever). Price has been capped at the 200sma. Looking to buy dips towards 50. {image} Trade safe, manage risk, use a stop.
Moved TP to 54 SL @ BE 47.50 give or take. Will swing the stop but still think 54+ is possible in the next three weeks unless OPEC bombs out. (same chart, same strategy)
  • #979
  • Nov 22, 2016 3:25am Nov 22, 2016 3:25am
Buying
  • #980
  • Nov 22, 2016 3:37am Nov 22, 2016 3:37am
Quoting webizone
Buying
Better still, sell off my crude oil bet and buying audcad.
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