Comments on Current Short Term Convergence

I'll be posting what I think might be the typical correlation converging after a divergence as soon as I see them, so this is short term. Will it help? I don't know, we'll see. If you find some let us know.

Here's what I'm looking at currently. Bond yen in a divergence from what I've observed to be the typical correlation. I am thinking that the bonds have made a short term double bottom that is being tested here and may rise, causing yen to rise with convergence. OTHO, yen traders may believe that this bond pattern is only a temporary reversal attempt and will fail, thus propelling yen down even more and continuing this USDJPY spike we are currently experiencing.

I bet on this falling and JPY converging, I lost about 5 times yesterday, maybe 6 and had to quit the day, but I learned so it only cost me a few bucks.

Today, I have the same idea but bonds now are at the low and bouncing the inevitable low test, but I think they will fail and move lower as the spoos range moves back up with the seemingly endless bulls, helping lift the USD. So I am long USDJPY here but it's shaking out big time, not sure I can survive it, I just got a massive stop out on this idea, still long on other half, and I re-entered to add back full position, I may just kill all and see if i can learn something from it...

killed it all on the continuation down, EPIC FAILURE on my part to correctly read the correlations, the bonds bounced up on high volume and overcoming the high of prior H1 bar by a lot, I blew out 3% of my account, and this was purely a psychological error based on my COGNITIVE BIAS called CONFIRMATION BIAS.

I only accepted information that supported my initial conclusion. I'll never be profitable without changing it.

no reason to post the ugly results after this one... see ya tomorrow, time for a journal entry, GL

update, my confirmation bias was is so bad that I failed to continue to look for other information that would have definitely opposed my initial idea which was total BS, of course, like the powerful uptrend in EURUSD that continued, obviously before, during and after my totally erroneous trade....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
now there's a chart I should be looking at, : - )

wasn't too hard to make money today in USDJPY, unless you screwed it up like me....