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Trader Dale - daily trading levels

  • #901
  • Oct 31, 2016 4:06am Oct 31, 2016 4:06am
Quoting januszo
AU peaked 7616 , missing 7518 by 2pips then pulled back 6. Should I consider 7618 missed and not trade it anymore ? ps: it went smoothly :TP, , thx Dale, But - how to detect a missed level? This one is a valid miss : price misses by 2-3 pips and retraces by 8-10pips or more Another : 2-3 times 2-3 pip miss with shallow 8 pip retrace Do you have any other valid miss definitions? I am trying to cast some mql code into EA helper - and detecting a missed level is one of functions I want to automate.
Very good idea to code it into EA helper! You guys are amazing. I myself also consider other factors that I watch in orderflow.
If the market tests the level 3 pips before and makes only 8 pips, I still would be willing to take the trade (lets say 70 % of the trades). If it tests 2 pips before and goes 10 pips I would take the trade maybe 10 % of the trades (only if the level is extremely strong and I see some confirmation in orderflow). Sometimes If the level is tested sooner but there is still a strong support/resist zone I move my trading level few pips higher (for short trades).
It is not very clear cut . If you were to programme it, I would probably go for 2 pips sooner and 8 pips reaction.
  • #902
  • Oct 31, 2016 4:15am Oct 31, 2016 4:15am
QUESTION FOR EVERYBODY:
How did you guys trade friday's afternoon (after the news of Clinton's FBI investigation)? Did you take the eur/usd and usd/jpy trades?

Iam curious. I was off and wasn't trading (lucky me).
What I usually do when there is spike like that - 1. I see some crazy move, 2. I quicky look if there isn't any unexpected news. If there are high impact unexpected news (like friday's Clinton news) I dont trade my intraday levels and wait for the situation to calm down. 3. If there arent any news and the market runs crazy I still take the trade but I need to see some confirmation from orderflow or the level needs to be extra strong for me to take it. It is also good idea to lower your position. That is my personal approach that suits me. Iam sure it is not the only good approach.
  • #903
  • Oct 31, 2016 4:37am Oct 31, 2016 4:37am
Quoting Trader-Dale
QUESTION FOR EVERYBODY: How did you guys trade friday's afternoon (after the news of Clinton's FBI investigation)? Did you take the eur/usd and usd/jpy trades? Iam curious. I was off and wasn't trading (lucky me). What I usually do when there is spike like that - 1. I see some crazy move, 2. I quicky look if there isn't any unexpected news. If there are high impact unexpected news (like friday's Clinton news) I dont trade my intraday levels and wait for the situation to calm down. 3. If there arent any news and the market runs crazy I still take...
I wasn't around to trade at that time, I may well have traded that first UJ long, but if I had it would have at worst been a BE trade, I would have stood aside for the 2nd long, it was moving like a steam train and I would have known from Talking Forex Squwark feed why ......... lines in the sand don't stop trains I would most likely have been stopped on EU. (2nd level, would have avoided the forst level due to news)
  • #904
  • Oct 31, 2016 4:39am Oct 31, 2016 4:39am
Hi Dale,

Luckily, I did not trade when the news released.

+10 pips for USDCAD got by your hints today

Always thanks

David
  • #905
  • Oct 31, 2016 4:45am Oct 31, 2016 4:45am
Quoting Trader-Dale
QUESTION FOR EVERYBODY: How did you guys trade friday's afternoon (after the news of Clinton's FBI investigation)? Did you take the eur/usd and usd/jpy trades? Iam curious. I was off and wasn't trading (lucky me). What I usually do when there is spike like that - 1. I see some crazy move, 2. I quicky look if there isn't any unexpected news. If there are high impact unexpected news (like friday's Clinton news) I dont trade my intraday levels and wait for the situation to calm down. 3. If there arent any news and the market runs crazy I still take...
Hey Dale ,as regard to your question, I took the eurusd pair trade only but with a smaller lot size,at first I thought it it could be some large orders coming into the market given the fact that ,that level is near the daily supply zone.But I was wrong,not until I hit the wire did confirm where the madness was emanating from.
  • #906
  • Oct 31, 2016 5:16am Oct 31, 2016 5:16am
Quoting Trader-Dale
QUESTION FOR EVERYBODY: How did you guys trade friday's afternoon (after the news of Clinton's FBI investigation)? Did you take the eur/usd and usd/jpy trades? Iam curious. I was off and wasn't trading (lucky me). What I usually do when there is spike like that - 1. I see some crazy move, 2. I quicky look if there isn't any unexpected news. If there are high impact unexpected news (like friday's Clinton news) I dont trade my intraday levels and wait for the situation to calm down. 3. If there arent any news and the market runs crazy I still take...

Hi Dale

I was in DREAMs... so i was so safe and i was full with lot of pips got from AU trade.
So i was on bed.

by the way.... seems AUDUSD is currently bouncing to up side from 30min time frame bottom trend line to up side....during the last 20 hours or so...
will it be wise to follow it until AUDUSD reach 0.7645 ... for scalping some long trades????
anyway
thx for support
imdi
  • #907
  • Oct 31, 2016 5:42am Oct 31, 2016 5:42am
Quoting imdisaait
{quote} Hi Dale I was in DREAMs... so i was so safe and i was full with lot of pips got from AU trade. So i was on bed. by the way.... seems AUDUSD is currently bouncing to up side from 30min time frame bottom trend line to up side....during the last 20 hours or so... will it be wise to follow it until AUDUSD reach 0.7645 ... for scalping some long trades???? anyway thx for support imdi
I wouldn't trade anything there except my level. I thing that there will be rotation - it is monday+big players will be cumulating positions for big move during the RBA rate statement.
  • #908
  • Oct 31, 2016 5:45am Oct 31, 2016 5:45am
Quoting Trader-Dale
{quote} I wouldn't trade anything there except my level. I thing that there will be rotation - it is monday+big players will be cumulating positions for big move during the RBA rate statement.

Respectfully appreciate your feed back.....DALE!

much valued for me !

will refrained from it!

thx again
imdi
  • #909
  • Oct 31, 2016 7:03am Oct 31, 2016 7:03am
Hi Dale

I had a very busy friday so i placed 2 pending orders and they got stopped out:-), but that's not a train smash. I got the AUDUSD earlier :-)

Thank you
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  • #910
  • Oct 31, 2016 11:04am Oct 31, 2016 11:04am
Stopped Out Friday
  • #911
  • Oct 31, 2016 11:09am Oct 31, 2016 11:09am
Quoting Trader-Dale
QUESTION FOR EVERYBODY: How did you guys trade friday's afternoon (after the news of Clinton's FBI investigation)? Did you take the eur/usd and usd/jpy trades? Iam curious. I was off and wasn't trading (lucky me). What I usually do when there is spike like that - 1. I see some crazy move, 2. I quicky look if there isn't any unexpected news. If there are high impact unexpected news (like friday's Clinton news) I dont trade my intraday levels and wait for the situation to calm down. 3. If there arent any news and the market runs crazy I still take...
Dale,

I was off for the weekend by then, so did not have any trades on. Things have a way of working out, I suppose! All the best for this trading week to all.
  • #912
  • Oct 31, 2016 12:44pm Oct 31, 2016 12:44pm
Quoting Trader-Dale
QUESTION FOR EVERYBODY: How did you guys trade friday's afternoon (after the news of Clinton's FBI investigation)? Did you take the eur/usd and usd/jpy trades? Iam curious. I was off and wasn't trading (lucky me). What I usually do when there is spike like that - 1. I see some crazy move, 2. I quicky look if there isn't any unexpected news. If there are high impact unexpected news (like friday's Clinton news) I dont trade my intraday levels and wait for the situation to calm down. 3. If there arent any news and the market runs crazy I still take...
I didn't took the trade the price was moving too fast at the level and also it was Friday, before the close I avoid trading.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #913
  • Edited 1:38pm Oct 31, 2016 1:10pm | Edited 1:38pm
E/U now getting close to Dale's short position call of 1.0981.
EDIT - turned 3 pips shy of target.
  • #914
  • Oct 31, 2016 3:09pm Oct 31, 2016 3:09pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I didn't took the trade the price was moving too fast at the level and also it was Friday, before the close I avoid trading.
very good!
  • #915
  • Oct 31, 2016 3:22pm Oct 31, 2016 3:22pm
E/U got to the level!
  • #916
  • Oct 31, 2016 3:36pm Oct 31, 2016 3:36pm
Quoting Trader-Dale
{quote} I wouldn't trade anything there except my level. I thing that there will be rotation - it is monday+big players will be cumulating positions for big move during the RBA rate statement.
Are you saying to do the short at 0.7645? Despite the upcoming news?
  • #917
  • Edited 5:46pm Oct 31, 2016 3:39pm | Edited 5:46pm
Am in EU trade too,amazingly the zone corresponds with my own trading system... Let's see what happens..
Edit:EU 10pips booked
  • #918
  • Oct 31, 2016 3:53pm Oct 31, 2016 3:53pm
Quoting ziggy
bugger - missed AU by the tiniest margin, won't take it now if it comes back down
Hi

Ziggy, I have been bemused by something to do with your speadsheet - yousaid that youlike to win more often, and yet on your spreadsheet you had a win rate of 62%, and when the SL was increased to 20, and TP to 15, the win rate went up to 80%,.Am I right about these figures?
  • #919
  • Oct 31, 2016 4:50pm Oct 31, 2016 4:50pm
Does anyone have a risk calculator?
  • #920
  • Oct 31, 2016 5:15pm Oct 31, 2016 5:15pm
Quoting shimmering
{quote} Hi Ziggy, I have been bemused by something to do with your speadsheet - yousaid that youlike to win more often, and yet on your spreadsheet you had a win rate of 62%, and when the SL was increased to 20, and TP to 15, the win rate went up to 80%,.Am I right about these figures?
Hi Shimmering - the figures are correct but the sample size is far to small to draw any conclusions from. The strike rate on that very small sample is a function of the stop loss size, but please don't place any reliance on it. On my own trading which concentrates entirely on trading the dax I have built up a sample size of 1764 trades over a 3 year period, I can rely upon the statistics for that over a long period, but over any 50-100 trades the results using the exact same criteria vary considerably. There isn't anywhere near enough data in "levels" spreadsheet to base any decisions on, but I do think there is enough info to conclude the levels themselves offer high probability of a reaction - and the originator of the levels suggests a 12 pip stop & a 10 pip PT, I'm not so arrogant to suggest after a month using Dales levels that I have a better way to trade them. I simply wanted to provide a start reference point for everyone to be able to keep their own records going forward.

My EU entry has now made 10 pips from where I entered, but not yet covered the spread - so now it will either win or close out at break-even

Cheers Ziggy
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