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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #56,261
  • Edited 7:21am Oct 27, 2016 4:06am | Edited 7:21am
Quoting fti
{quote} so you can understand the writings. lots of stuff there that many cannot grasp. Only those more experienced. yes, he is one of the best researchers i have had the good fortune to meet. regards


he has a chapter example on long put/call theoretical edge trading, seems to be that according to his volatility forecast, he see its underpriced as market implied volatility is smaller, and by using delta neutral technique using spot, he converged on the final volatility realized by market, he is able to generate profits from the mispricing. interesting stuff, so this one is market neutral but long volatility.

half way through the book though, will read slowly to digest it.

take care.
  • #56,262
  • Oct 27, 2016 4:44am Oct 27, 2016 4:44am
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rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,263
  • Oct 27, 2016 4:46am Oct 27, 2016 4:46am
Quoting fti
anyway , i had nose bleed 2 days back and i thought . oh shit. but nothing serious. mom said i heaty. regards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2uXeq0UrWw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce3BeSI8Wrk
Noted, take care

:hugs:

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,264
  • Oct 27, 2016 4:47am Oct 27, 2016 4:47am
may the most eldest japan prince RIP.
my condolences
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,265
  • Oct 29, 2016 1:21am Oct 29, 2016 1:21am
By Anonymous
I have reached the pinnacle of success in the business world.

In others eyes, my life is an epitome of success.

However, aside from work, I have little joy. In the end, wealth is only a fact of life that I am accustomed to.

At this moment, lying on the sick bed and recalling my whole life, I realize that all the recognition and wealth that I took so much pride in, have paled and become meaningless in the face of impending death.

In the darkness, I look at the green lights from the life supporting machines and hear the humming mechanical sounds, I can feel the breath of god of death drawing closer

Now I know, when we have accumulated sufficient wealth to last our lifetime, we should pursue other matters that are unrelated to wealth

Should be something that is more important:

Perhaps relationships, perhaps art, perhaps a dream from younger days ...

Non-stop pursuing of wealth will only turn a person into a twisted being, just like me.

God gave us the senses to let us feel the love in everyones heart, not the illusions brought about by wealth.

The wealth I have won in my life I cannot bring with me.

What I can bring is only the memories precipitated by love.

Thats the true riches which will follow you, accompany you, giving you strength and light to go on.

Love can travel a thousand miles. Life has no limit. Go where you want to go. Reach the height you want to reach. It is all in your heart and in your hands.

What is the most expensive bed in the world? - "Sick bed"

You can employ someone to drive the car for you, make money for you but you cannot have someone to bear the sickness for you.

Material things lost can be found. But there is one thing that can never be found when it is lost "Life".

When a person goes into the operating room, he will realize that there is one book that he has yet to finish reading "Book of Healthy Life".

Whichever stage in life we are at right now, with time, we will face the day when the curtain comes down.

Treasure Love for your family, love for your spouse, love for your friends...
Treat yourself well. Cherish others and lend your helping hands to others, who may need just a chance to shine in their life.
  • #56,266
  • Oct 30, 2016 8:29am Oct 30, 2016 8:29am
eeeeeeer breaking news ?????

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/late...missile-system

regards
  • #56,267
  • Edited 12:47pm Oct 30, 2016 12:02pm | Edited 12:47pm
pls don't ask me.
i am still thinking.

seems there is thin line in the sand.
insanity or reality.
like i said , i am still thinking.

regards

so far cannot find any supporting reporting.
lots searching.
impact to monday markets unknown.
will be watching wellington.
  • #56,268
  • Oct 30, 2016 12:52pm Oct 30, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} he has a chapter example on long put/call theoretical edge trading, seems to be that according to his volatility forecast, he see its underpriced as market implied volatility is smaller, and by using delta neutral technique using spot, he converged on the final volatility realized by market, he is able to generate profits from the mispricing. interesting stuff, so this one is market neutral but long volatility. half way through the book though, will read slowly to digest it. take care.

eeeer long strangle.
is a volatilty bet.
is very expensive strategy paying premiums both ends.
i don't think is very clever advance trading strategy.
I think basic strategy. There are lots more efficient strategies.


regards
  • #56,269
  • Oct 30, 2016 1:07pm Oct 30, 2016 1:07pm
Quoting fti
eeeeeeer breaking news ????? http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/late...missile-system regards
if so. We all should learn how to make IED?
  • #56,270
  • Edited 1:39pm Oct 30, 2016 1:12pm | Edited 1:39pm
Quoting s189145
{quote} if so. We all should learn how to make IED?
IED??

whats use is that , when we not know.

their force strength.
who they are.
what they want.
and if they need go to the toilets.
and what they eat.

hahahahahaha. whats IED?

regards

oh that,
not think it works.
nothing blows up there.
no atmosphere.
end up blowing earth up.

maybe they afraid if we throw mud at them.
may jam their ship.
if they travel at very high speed, mud is dangerous for em.

if we want to win.
we must let them come mate with us.
then we currupt their system like we do to ourselves?
  • #56,271
  • Oct 30, 2016 1:35pm Oct 30, 2016 1:35pm
Hmmmm
Why ? Why not ?
If aliens are hostile they could wiped out us from planet just with one rock like dinosaurs If they do not they need planet intact for a reason and will need to go on surface not them but drones etc. and make sure that our defence will be disabled so only thing to fight will be unconventional devices.

not there we can only fight here. if they can travel they need to protect against rocks and shit that universe throw at them
  • #56,272
  • Oct 30, 2016 1:47pm Oct 30, 2016 1:47pm
Fun topic aliens If they here they are for us for living matter it self every other thing they can gather from other planets or comets .
  • #56,273
  • Oct 30, 2016 1:47pm Oct 30, 2016 1:47pm
Quoting s189145
Hmmmm Why ? Why not ? If aliens are hostile they could wiped out us from planet just with one rock like dinosaurs If they do not they need planet intact for a reason and will need to go on surface not them but drones etc. and make sure that our defence will be disabled so only thing to fight will be unconventional devices. not there we can only fight here. if they can travel they need to protect against rocks and shit that universe throw at them
ya, we will win.
Our shit is full of it.
they won't survive our shit.

Fight on earth?
we have been doing that for eternity.
You see any one win yet.

let em come.

regards
  • #56,274
  • Oct 30, 2016 1:49pm Oct 30, 2016 1:49pm
Fun topic aliens If they here they are for us for living matter it self every other thing they can gather from other planets or comets .
Only dead have seen end of the war ?
  • #56,275
  • Oct 30, 2016 1:51pm Oct 30, 2016 1:51pm
We probably can not win only survive we are just
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  • #56,276
  • Edited 2:22pm Oct 30, 2016 2:06pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting s189145
We probably can not win only survive we are just https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH2w6Oxx0kQ
ya we bad dust.
they come then they will learn the truth,
the, "my antenna is longer than yours"? sort of mindset.


regards
  • #56,277
  • Edited 2:33pm Oct 30, 2016 2:21pm | Edited 2:33pm
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hahahhahaha
  • #56,278
  • Oct 30, 2016 6:57pm Oct 30, 2016 6:57pm
Quoting fti
{quote} eeeer long strangle. is a volatilty bet. is very expensive strategy paying premiums both ends. i don't think is very clever advance trading strategy. I think basic strategy. There are lots more efficient strategies. regards
He used single put to carry out the strategy, because as you mentioned the volatility price on both sides will be too expensive and not enough exposure to directional movement to compensate for the volatility price.

I think on top of buying a put (call), if selling call credit spread should be able to help pay for the time decay a little, and the mo here and the mm skew should be superior to just purely managing it through Greeks. As the gamma scalp mo seems to maintain the delta neutrality closely but sacrifice on opportunity cost quite abit. So it's not roi efficient.
  • #56,279
  • Edited 2:50am Oct 31, 2016 2:05am | Edited 2:50am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} He used single put to carry out the strategy, because as you mentioned the volatility price on both sides will be too expensive and not enough exposure to directional movement to compensate for the volatility price. I think on top of buying a put (call), if selling call credit spread should be able to help pay for the time decay a little, and the mo here and the mm skew should be superior to just purely managing it through Greeks. As the gamma scalp mo seems to maintain the delta neutrality closely but sacrifice on opportunity cost quite...
eeer long put is not a strategy.
is a wasting/depreciating asset. AKA liability. Over time it amortises to zero, but one can get lucky, maybe. Is same as medicte insurance schemes.
do you buy 4D. Is same strategy.

but maybe too harsh, Some lucky people may need it one day.

Bought war insurance yet?
Upon war will be lifted, hahahaha to alien spaceship.hahahahaahahahahahahaha AKA bunker?
yaya support war. what if there's no bunker?

ai ya lots mad people. raging mad. maybe only deceived only.
plant durian on space ship?


eeeer i thinking , will my durian pill sell. no smell type.
still thinking if it will outsell this my sg favourite. the idea is there.

regards
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  • #56,280
  • Oct 31, 2016 2:30am Oct 31, 2016 2:30am
eeeeeeeeer maybe......
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