Daily Technical Analysis by Capital Street FX

WTI signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 15:45 25/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 25/10/2016

Sell at 50.00
Take profit at 49.35
Stop loss at 50.50

P&G Reports Upbeat Quarterly Results – Long Position Suggested

Procter & Gamble Co. (P&G), the world’s largest maker of household and personal-care products reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit before the market open on Tuesday.

P&G posted a profit of $2.71 billion, or 96 cents a share for the first fiscal quarter of 2017, up from $2.6 billion, or 91 cents a share, a year ago. Upbeat results were underpinned by cost-cutting and strong demand for its health care products.

Particularly, P&G’s health care segments performed the best, recording 5% increase in volume, fabric and home care and baby, feminine and family care segments came after with 4% improvement. Beauty brands contributed 2% and grooming products added 3%.

The company also reduced costs by selling off unprofitable brands and building a plan to cut as much as 10 billion over the next five years, after having saved the same amount in costs over the last five years.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 87.25, take profit at 88.00, stop loss at 87.00

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Daily Report on October 26, 2016

Asian shares dropped on Wednesday, following in the footsteps of the U.S equities which were dragged down by disappointing earnings overnight. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.6%. Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 slid 0.2%; South Korea’s Kospi shed 1.3% while gauges in Australia also fell.

The Australian dollar jumped more than 0.6% to as high as 0.77083 – the highest since last Thursday after inflation was reported to run faster than expected. Australia’s consumer prices accelerated at the pace of 0.7% last quarter, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase, and paring bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rate this year.

Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday, pulled down by a report of surging U.S. crude inventories, and rising output in Nigeria. The industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported that U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.8 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 21. This was far above a 1.7-million barrel build forecast by analysts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to publish official data on U.S. crude stockpiles later today.

According to the Nigerian presidency on Tuesday, Royal Dutch Shell has resumed crude exports from the Forcados terminal in Nigeria's restive Niger Delta following repairs after a militant attack. Operations at Forcados have been halted since a militant attack on the subsea pipeline in February which was attributed to the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA).

Technicals
GBPUSD

Fig: GBPUSD H1 Technical Chart
The British pound dropped steeply yesterday to retest the low logged two weeks ago before recovering losses to get back above the 1.21700 level. However, the currency continued to lose ground against the U.S dollar and has retreated after reaching 1.22054. The short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 and is putting downward pressure on the pair. As can be observed from indicator windows, while RSI remains under 50, ADX has surged to 30.07 with a wide gap between +DI and –DI lines, which indicates a strong downtrend.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.21550, Take profit at 1.21000, Stop loss at 1.21850

USDCAD

Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
USDCAD has been on a rise since it hit the 38.2% retracement at 1.33107. The pair failed to break below this level on Monday and has turned it into a new support. Further supporting the rally is the pair of moving averages placed below the price action. However, bulls seem to be losing stream which can be seen in shorter bodies in every new candle. USDCAD attempted the firm resistance at 1.33550 at the started of the week and turned sideways since the start of the week. Nonetheless, with a market in favor of buyers, USDCAD is expected to reach the 1.34000 threshold.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.33600, Take profit at 1.34000, Stop loss at 1.33200

GBPJPY

Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart
The pair GBPJPY has remained range-bound for nearly 2 weeks between the support at 126.100 and the resistance at 128.000. The Pound hit the upper boundary of the range yesterday but failed to break out of its trading range and is heading downwards to the lower boundary. Like the RSI which is moving around the 50 line, the price action is also swinging back and forth around the MAs. There is a high chance that the market will continue sideways for a longer period of time.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 126.670, Take profit at 126.100, Stop loss at 127.200

Sugar

Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart
Sugar has retreated after buyers have not been able to hold on to the recent strength. The price action crossed over the MA's from below, but could not sustain itself above the MA's and has quickly broken back below the MA's. The price action is currently placed around the MA's and the recent candlesticks suggest weakening upside momentum which is being confirmed by the indicators. The stochastics have retreated from the overbought area. The %K line is moving lower ahead of the %D line, suggesting an extended down move.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 22.80, Take profit at 22.35, Stop loss at 23.20

WTI

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
WTI pulled back from the support at 49.35 following three long-body bearish candles yesterday. From the stochastic chart, we can see that after falling into the oversold zone, the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, suggesting a correction. Further, crude prices are under the shadow of the two MAs placed above the price action, which are pointing downwards. Hence, the price is anticipated to reverse lower soon.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 49.30, Take profit at 48.30, Stop loss at 50.00

DOW JONES

Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart
The Dow Jones index resumed its range-bound moves after pulling back from the upper boundary of the recent range. The price action has been trapped in a trading range with the support at 18055.00 and the resistance at 18255.00. The slide yesterday sent the market back into bearish terrritory, according to the RSI chart. The index may re-attempt a test of the lower boundary.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 18140.00, Take profit at 18055.00, Stop loss at 18200.00

AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:20 26/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 26/10/2016

Buy at 1.02750
Take profit at 1.03400
Stop loss at 1.02500

Apple Down After Earnings Fall – Positive Forecast To Bring Shares Back on Track

Shares of Apple dropped 3.51% to $114.10 per share in extended-hours trading on Tuesday, after the company reported a third successive quarter of declining revenue and profits. The results recorded Apple’s first drop in annual revenue since 2001 as the California-based company has been struggling with slowing sales of its flagship iPhone.

For the fiscal fourth quarter through September, Apple’s net income registered at $9 billion, or $1.67 a share, which was down 19% from $11.1 billion, or $1.96 a share in the same period a year earlier. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.65 per share.

Apple posted revenue of $46.9 billion for the quarter, and missed forecasts by $100 million. Those figures also came in short compared with the company’s performance during the same period last year, when it reported revenues of $51.5 billion.

Revenue from iPhones accounts for two-thirds of the company’s total revenue. Apple said it sold 45.51 million iPhones in the three-month period ending September, down 5% from the same period last year.

However, Apple is still optimistic about its business in the current, holiday-dominated quarter. Apple has forecast a revenue range of $76 billion to $78 billion for the fiscal first quarter, given the sales of its new phone lineup – the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, especially so, given the crisis at rival Samsung with the Galaxy Note 7.

The technology leader is also confident about the market in China, where the middle class is expanding and smartphone ownership remains low, according to Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri.

Chief Executive Tim Cook also expressed his confidence in the Indian market. Tim Cook said India was on the brink of a boom in smartphone sales as a more powerful 4G cellular network has been put in place this year and is going to expand next year.

Apple forecast gross margins of 38% to 38.5% for the next three months, which is similar or slightly higher compared to 38% in the just-completed quarter.

Apple has been trading sideways around the 61.8% level at 117.25 following a steady rally which sent the shares to 10-month highs at 118.59. Since the price action crossed over the two Mas from below, on July 07th, the prices have been supported by the short-term MA20 and the long-term MA50. With a decline in after-hours trading, Apple’s share price is expected to create a gap down on the chart. However, it is also forecast to cover the gap and extend the recent up move.


Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 114.50, Stop loss at 111.95, Take profit at 117.25

Daily Report on October 27, 2016

Asian shares extended losses to a second trading day on Thursday due to the decline in shares of blue-chip companies following earnings reports. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell the most among regional benchmarks with a 1.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.7%, while Japan’s Topix index retreated.

Profit growth in China's industrial firms was reported to have slowed down in September. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Thursday that profits at Chinese industrial firms rose 7.7 percent to 577.1 billion Yuan last month. This pace was lower than August's 19.5 percent jump, as several sectors such as electronics, steel and electricity sreported weak activity.

In the nine months through September, total profits stood at 4.64 trillion Yuan ($684.77 billion), up 8.4 percent from the same period a year ago.

Crude oil witnessed a weak recovery even after the Energy Information Administration stated that domestic crude supplies unexpectedly fell last week. U.S. crude stockpiles were reported to have fallen by 553,000 barrels last week, a result contrary to analyst forecasts and previous reports from the API that had reported an increase in stocks

For the day ahead, the U.S. is scheduled to report on durable goods orders and the housing market. Investors are also waiting for U.K. GDP figures that shall reflect the economy’s full performance in the wake of the Brexit referendum. Companies reporting earnings include Google parent Alphabet Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.

Technicals
AUDUSD

Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
The Aussie fell off again after hitting the resistance at 0.77000 against the U.S dollar. The pair pulled back from the 0.76400 level but sellers quickly jumped in after the short correction to send the pair below the two MAs, which confirms the downtrend. Coupled with the RSI index that has retreated below the 50 line, the parabolic sar is also signalling further declines. The pair is likely to find support at the 23.6% level at 0.75958.
Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 0.75958, Take profit at 0.76400, Stop loss at 0.75800

USDJPY

Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart
USDJPY is approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 104.750 where it had to reverse lower on Tuesday. Buyers are overwhelming the market, which is indicated by the RSI line floating above the dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. However, observing the ADX chart, we can see that the bullish force is weakening. Hence, the chance of the pair breaking through the 23.6% handle today, is not very high.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 104.750, Take profit at 104.200, Stop loss at 104.900

EURCAD

Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart
Euro has been on a steady rise against the Canadian dollar and is about to encounter the resistance at 1.46318, which is one of the major Fibonacci levels. As the market has neared the oversold zone and the buying interest is weakening, the pair is not likely to make a breakout through the 23.6% retracement today.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 1.46318, Take profit at 1.45400, Stop loss at 1.46650

GOLD

Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Gold has remained locked in the range between the support at 38.2% Fibonacci level and the resistance at 1275.00. Nevertheless, the metal has received bullish support from the short-term 20-period moving average since the price action crossed over the MA more than a week ago. Gold is ticking higher after falling from the upper boundary of the trading range and may attempt this level again as the %K line has penetrated the %D line from below.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1269.00, Take profit at 1275.00, Stop loss at 1265.00

WTI

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
WTI has been moving sideways to lower for almost two days. After failed attempts to breach the 49.30 handle, the commodity has broken below this level with the support of the short-term MAs which helped the pair pull back yesterday. As the RSI remains at a low level, WTI crude prices may test the next support at 48.30.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 49.00, Take profit at 48.30, Stop loss at 49.40

NASDAQ 100

Fig: NASDAQ 100 H4 Technical Chart
The NASDAQ100 index pulled back from the support at 4845.00, which has been a strong zone of resistance recently. With bullish momentum fueled by the MA20, which is placed below the price action, the index is anticipated to retest the resistance at 4890.00. The RSI has surpassed the 50 line, consolidating further up moves.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 4870.00, Take profit at 4890.00, Stop loss at 4855.00

EUR/AUD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 08:00 27/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 27/10/2016

Buy at 1.43200
Take profit at 1.44200
Stop loss at 1.42400

Dragged By Rising Supplies, Natural Gas Extends Losses

U.S natural gas prices edged lower on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the commodity’s storage rose 73 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 21st, which is slightly higher than forecast of an increase of 71 bcf.

Natural gas retested the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $2.691 per million Btu following a pullback to as high as $2.775 per million Btu on Wednesday. According to the government data, total stocks now stand at 3.909 trillion cubic feet, up 52 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 182 billion cubic feet above the five-year average.

Natural gas Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 2.675, Take profit at 2.625, Stop loss at 2.760


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GBPUSD Reaches One-Week High Following Upbeat GDP Data

The British Pound erased earlier losses and moved firmly higher after data on Thursday showed the U.K. economy grew faster than economists’ forecast in the third quarter – the period following the country’s Brexit vote.

The pair GBPUSD hit an intra-day high at $1.22701 – the highest in the past week following the report by the Office for National Statistics which showed the U.K. gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in the July-September period. The figure was lower than the unusually strong growth of 0.7% recorded in the second quarter, but it has comfortably outpaced forecasts calling for an expansion of 0.3%.

Particularly, service sector inched 0.8% higher, offsetting declines in other three main industrial groups namely construction, agriculture and production. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, growth ticked up 2.3% – the fastest pace in more than a year.

Last quarter’s data is considered to be more importance than usual as it covers the first full quarter after the U.K.’s vote in June to leave the European Union. Since then, the economy has proved to be more resilient than initially forecast, which may diminish the chance that the Bank of England will slash rates further after a cut in August.

In the U.S, weekly jobless claims and durable and core durable goods orders for September are due later, followed by pending-home sales for the same period.

Since a steep slide in the period from September 29 to October 11 which sent GBPUSD below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.29360, the pair has been moving sideways. GBPUSD has been kept locked between the support at 1.20880 and the resistance at 1.23300, but it is heading upwards to attempt the upper boundary. The upside is expected to extend as RSI index has bounced back from 50 line, confirming the uptrend.

GBPUSD Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.22600, take profit at 1.23300, stop loss at 1.22000

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Advertising and Cloud Business Help Alphabet’s Revenue Surpass Forecast

Google parent Alphabet Inc reported revenue and profit that topped analysts’ estimates after the closing bell on Thursday. The web giant’ revenue, excluding payments to partner sites, rose to $18.3 billion in the third quarter, beating forecast for a $18 billion of sales. Profit before certain items climbed to $9.06 a share, which is also higher than average estimates of $8.61 per-share profit.

Despite heavy spending on unprofitable new products and projects, such as self-driving cars and smartphones, the company still registered a strong increase in revenue. This was thanks to robust sales of advertising on mobile devices and YouTube, and the cloud business where the company is competing with other market-leader including Amazon.com Inc and Microsoft Corp and IBM Corp

The search giant said it would repurchase about US$7 billion of its Class C stock.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 825.10, take profit at 845.00, stop loss at 815.00


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Daily Report on October 28, 2016

Global stocks plummeted on Friday while bond yields and the U.S dollar rallied amid rising speculation for a near-term U.S. interest rate hike. Most Asian benchmarks fell, while European shares opened lower. Europe Stoxx 600 lost 0.5% to open at 339.90. FTSE 100 inched down 0.4% to 6,960.81, and Germany's DAX retreated 0.8% to 10,635.55

The greenback held on to its strength as Upbeat U.S. data on Thursday including jobless claims, manufacturing activity and pending home sales strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to raise rates by the year-end. The market attention was now turned toward third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data which is scheduled to come out later today.

The Bank of Japan on Friday said that consumer price index – the bank’s preferred inflation gauge rose 0.2% from a year earlier in September. This is the weakest gain since September 2013, following a 0.4% increase in August. The gauge has headed lower since peaking at 1.3% in December last year, as Yen strengthened and domestic demand remained weak.

Crude oil prices were almost unchanged in Asian and early European trade after bouncing back on Thursday from three-week lows. Investors are waiting for a meeting of oil officials from OPEC countries this weekend in Vienna for more clues on a proposed production cut deal. OPEC will make a formal announcement on Nov. 30 about the outcome of its negotiation on the fate of the deal.

Technicals
USDCAD

Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
USDCAD is moving sideways to higher under the resistance at 1.34000. The pair is receiving huge support from the short-term 20-period moving average. Although RSI is floating horizontally, it remains in the bullish territory and suggests a market which is in favor of buyers. Investors are awaiting data of the U.S economy. If the report benefits the greenback, the pair can rise to as high as 1.34700.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.34000, Take profit at 1.34700, Stop loss at

NZDUSD

Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart
New Zealand’s dollar resumed its slide after enjoying a correction from the support at 0.71100. The short rally could not defeat the short-term MA20 and send the market into the bullish zone. As can be seen from the indicator window, RSI bounced back from the 50 line and is heading downwards, indicating further declines.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 0.71100, Take profit at 0.70500, Stop loss at 0.71300

EURGBP

Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart
EURGBP have been trading in a thin range between the support at 0.88800 and the resistance at 0.90555 since a wide fluctuation on October 07th. The pair is on course to approach the upper boundary with bullish signal from two MAs placed below the price action. The 20-period MA has penetrated the 50-period MA from below, which consolidates the up moves.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 0.89800, Take profit at 0.90555, Stop loss at 0.89400

WTI

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
U.S crude prices are still under downward pressure from two MAs after failed attempts to cross over this dynamic resistance lately. The commodity headed back to the support at 49.30 and keeps the market in the bearish territory. In the event of continual downtrend, crude prices can make a break out through the 49.30 handle and retest another support at 48.30.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 49.30, Take profit at 48.30, Stop loss at 49.80

SILVER

Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver has been trading in a thin range lately. As can be observed from the RSI chart, the market is in a neutral zone with the RSI moving back and forth around the average line, which divides the bullish area from the bearish area. RSI is pointing downwards, but to confirm a downtrend, we may need to wait until the price action has crossed over the two MAs successfully.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 17.520, Take profit at 17.300, Stop loss at 17.700

EURO 50

Fig: EURO 50 H4 Technical Chart
Euro Stoxx 50 index pulled back from the firm support at 3062.00 which has retrained the price to fall deeper on the last two days. Today the index also receive another support which comes from the long-term 50-period MA at 3050.90. However, the parabolic sar has changed its direction to hang above the price action, suggesting extended down moves.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 3062.00, Take profit at 3050.00, Stop loss at 3070.00

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EUR/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 17:10 28/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 28/10/2016

Buy at 1.08600
Take profit at 1.08700
Stop loss at 1.08500

Drug Maker Sanofi Boosts CAC 40 Higher After Early Losses

French shares swung to positive territory after easing losses in early trade on Friday. France’s CAC 40 index rose 0.22% so far on the day following the release of encouraging Eurozone economic confidence data.

Among a batch of economic releases on Friday, survey data from the European Commission showed that a gauge of Eurozone economic confidence hit a 10-month high at 106.3 in October, which is up from 104.9 in the prior month. However, French consumer spending unexpectedly shed 0.2% in September following a 0.8% increase in August, data from statistical office INSEE revealed.

Also stated by the INSEE, the annual consumer price inflation remained stable at 0.4 percent in the current month, while producer prices added 0.1% on a monthly basis in September, after remaining flat in the previous month.

On the CAC 40 index, declining issues outnumbered advancing issues by 22 to 18. Nonetheless, the index was trading in the green, led by the jump of drug maker Sanofi. Shares of the pharmaceutical company rallied more than 7.0% it raised its profit forecast for the year and announced its plan to complete a €3.5 billion ($3.82 billion) share buyback by the end of 2017.

Compagnie de Saint Gobain SA’s equities also climbed 3% after the building materials firm posted good organic growth in the first five nine months of the year.

On the other side, Nokia Corp topped the list of losers, heading down more than 4%. The technology company reported a quarterly net loss for the third time in a row on Thursday. The decline in the bottom line was resulted from sluggish mobile-network sales and charges related to the company’s acquisition of French rival Alcatel-Lucent SA.

Adding to Nokia’s woes is the news that its Chief Financial Officer Timo Ihamuotila has resigned to join technology conglomerate ABB Ltd. in Switzerland. His position will be filled by Kristian Pullola.
CAC 40 index has been on a rise and is likely to approach the six-month highs at 4579.90 logged on October 24th. The index is being suported by two MAs which are moving under the price action. With the confirmation from the RSI index that is heading upwards to the overbought zone, the index is expected the uptrend.


Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 4545.00 , take profit at 4557.00, stop loss at 4540.00

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Spotlight on a Quartet of Central Bank Meetings, U.S NFP to Wrap up An Eventful Week

The U.S dollar weakened against most of its peers on Friday after reigning supreme for most of last week. The greenback lost its steam as investors took profits following the release of GDP data, but still closed the week higher versus a the majors amid rising speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December.
In spite of mixed data published throughout the week, Friday’s report on the U.S gross domestic product pointed to a positive trent in US economic growth.US Consumer Sentiment dropped as per reports by the Conference Board on Tuesday and by University of Michigan on Friday. However, flash data on manufacturing and service sectors for October signaled a strong start for the fourth quarter with both indexes reaching the highest levels in 11 months. U.S. economic growth was also reported to accelerate at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, not to mention new home sales rising and the trade deficit narrowing.

No matter how encouraging the economic data were last week, the Fed is not expected to tighten rates at the policy meeting next week, which is being held just days before the presidential election. Therefore, reports such as ISM manufacturing due on Tuesday, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and ISM non-manufacturing may draw more attention.

In September, there were only 156,000 jobs added to the US economy, while the unemployment rate inched up to 5% from 4.9% in August. Last month’s readings was not only lower than expectations but also indicated a trend towards decreasing numbers over the last four months. For October, economists expect a 175,000 jobs gain and the jobless rate declining to 4.9%.

The British Pound hit a two-week low at $1.20812 last week ahead of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s testimony before the House of Lords in London. GBPUSD recovered earlier losses later on as Carney pointed out that the recent moves in sterling seemed to be based on “the market’s perception of what the potential relationship will be between the United Kingdom and Europe,”. “It’s a bit early to be making that judgment.” he said.

The BOE Governor also reassured investors that the Brexit negotiation process will be pursued orderly and the government will attempt to “get the best deal possible”.
The most important data for the Cable reported last week was the third-quarter GDP, which reflected the economy’s performance in the period following the country’s Brexit vote. The Office for National Statistics stated that U.K. gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in the July-September period, which was lower than the unusually strong growth of 0.7% recorded in the second quarter, but it comfortably outpaced forecasts calling for an expansion of 0.3%.

Next week, the latest UK PMIs and Quarterly Inflation Report will be released before the BOE announces its rate decision on Thursday. Analyst expectations point to rates remaining unchanged at the meeting. However, remarks by BOE policymakers will be closely watched to determine whether there is a possibility of another rate cut in the coming months.

Unlike the Cable with a busy week ahead, the Euro is not likely to be pushed around by Eurozone-related data. The single currency fell to the lowest since early-March at $1.08502 last Tuesday and seems to have bottomed out at the level

Monday’s third-quarter Eurozone GDP report and October CPI will start a quiet week for the Euro. Manufacturing and service PMIs from Eurozone countries and the region as a whole will be reported on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. The upside for EURUSD seems limited as dollar bulls may remain in control around the FOMC meeting.

Moving on to Australia, the Australian dollar jumped more than 0.6% to as high as 0.77083 – the highest in a week, after inflation was reported higher than expected. Australia’s consumer prices accelerated at the pace of 0.7% last quarter, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase, and paring bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to deliver its interest rate decision on Tuesday, November 1st. It is widely expected to leave rates unchanged and it may announce a state of neutrality. This announcement will be followed by a busy Friday for the Aussie with RBA Monetary Policy Statement and September’s Retail Sales on the calendar.

The New Zealand dollar, which closed the week almost unchanged compared to the greenback, is also going to welcome key reports next week including Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. The former is expected to come in at 0.6%, the latter, unchanged at 5.1%. The Kiwi is also likely to respond to the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Of the 3 commodity currencies, Canadian dollar was the weakest in the past week. Oil prices hitting three-week lows and economic data that surprised to the downside together weighed on the currency.

Crude oil witnessed a weak recovery after the Energy Information Administration stated that domestic crude supplies unexpectedly fell last week. U.S. crude stockpiles were reported to have fallen by 553,000 barrels last week, a result contrary to analyst forecasts and previous reports from the API that had reported an increase in stocks.

However, burdens on the crude price remained heavy as two-day talks between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in Vienna ended with nothing new but a promise that the world’s largest oil producers would keep on talking. Discussions will continue in late November, just days before the OPEC is supposed to finalize the accord that had previously been proposed in September.

The Loonie pared earlier losses on late Monday as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signaled a deferral in cutting rates, even after the country’s disappointing economic data lately. Given the uneven growth in different parts of Canada, Poloz reiterated the central bank considered cutting interest rates but said further stimulus is complicated. Any decision to cut interest rates further will not be unleashed in the next 18 months, the BOC Governor said.

The Bank of Japan also has a monetary policy meeting scheduled next week but like the other three central banks, the BOJ is expected to make little or no changes to its current monetary policy framework.

Daily Report on October 31, 2016

Asian shares fluctuated on Monday, with energy sector tracking oil’s slide. Energy stocks fell on the last trading day of October as crude benchmarks slipped to one-month lows after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries left Vienna empty-handed. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers ended two days of talks without making any progress on setting individual quotas, as focus was on Iran and Iraq – two OPEC members that preferred raising output to snapping production.

Gold was little unchanged after breaking the resistance at $1275.00 per ounce on Friday. Markets’ confidence was rattled following a survey pointed to cooling support for Democrat Hillary Clinton since the reopening of an FBI probe into her use of private e-mail while secretary of state. Considered as a good gauge of how markets assess Clinton’s possibility to win the election on November 11, the Mexican peso held a two-week low versus the dollar.

In Japan, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on Monday reported that Japanese industrial output was unchanged in September from the previous month. The reading was far lower than the median estimate of a 0.9% increase and an expansion at the pace of 1.3% in August. According to the report, the stall in Japan’s industrial output was due to declines in semiconductor and personal computer production that offset gains in autos and construction equipment.

In a separate data release, Japanese retail sales were also unchanged compared to the month before but fell more than expected in September from a year ago, indicating that private consumption remains a drag on growth. The Bank of Japan has started a two-day meeting on Monday during which it will review its inflation outlook and monetary policy. Today’s data may prompt the BOJ to push back the timing of its price target again.

Technicals
AUDCAD

Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart
The Australian dollar resumed its rally against the Loonie after the pair fell from two-and-a-half year highs at 1.02846 recorded last Wednesday. A pullback came in as the price action hit the long-term MA50 and failed to break below this dynamic support. As can be observed from the RSI chart, the index has surged above 50, confirming the uptrend. Meanwhile, the +DI line has crossed over the –DI line, further consolidates upcoming advances.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.02050, Take profit at 1.02350, Stop loss at 1.01850

USDJPY

Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart
USDJPT failed to get back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement as the pair had faced a strong support that is the MA20. As indicated by the RSI that is floating above 50 line, the market remains in favor of the bull. Hence, USDJPY may re-attempt the three-month highs at 105.500.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 104.900, Take profit at 105.500, Stop loss at 104.500

AUDUSD

Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
The Aussie returned back above the 23.6% retracement following a rebound from the solid support at 0.75600. Long lower shadows of recent candles indicate a strong bullish force that has consistently pushed the price higher. Although the price action remains under a couple of MAs, the parabolic sar band has changed its direction to moving below the price action, signaling a further up moves.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 0.76150, Take profit at 0.76500, Stop loss at 0.75880

GOLD

Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Gold has breached the resistance at 1275.00 with supports from long-term MA50 placed below the price action. The precious metal has turned its old resistance into a new support, against which it crawled back last Friday. As RSI remain in the bullish zone and is pointing upwards, gold may soar higher.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1278.00, Take profit at 1284.00, Stop loss at 1274.00

WTI

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
WTI pulled back from the support at 48.30 following a gap down on the market open. From the RSI chart, the rebound can be considered as a correction as the market has reached the oversold zone. With a soaring ADX and downward pressure exerted from two MAs hanging above the price action, the commodity is expected to test the support at 47.50.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 48.30, Take profit at 47.50, Stop loss at 48.80.

DOW JONES

Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart
U.S Dow Jones 30 index has remained in the range between the support at 18055.00 and the resistance at 18255.00 since Oct. 13. While the RSI has been swinging back and forth around the 50 line, the ADX has dipped to as low as 15.90, which indicates an unclear trend on the market.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 18200.00, Take profit at 18090.00, Stop loss at 18265.00

AUD/NZD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 11:15 28/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 31/10/2016

Sell at 1.06300
Take profit at 1.05900
Stop loss at 1,06500

China Imports Less, Brazil Exports More – Sugar Tumbles

Sugar prices plunged for the fifth consecutive days on Monday as governments in China and Egypt are selling sugar out of their stocks to support domestic supply. Meanwhile, a strengthening Brazilian real has been encouraging Brazilian sugar producers to increase exports.

Due to domestically output declines in sugar plantations, which has happened to most sugar producing nations owing to drought brought by the El Nino weather pattern earlier this year, China had to gear up importing sugar from its neighboring countries such as Myanmar and Thailand. However, in the past few months, Chinese authorities have tightened controls over imports of agricultural products from Myanmar including sugar in order to fight with illegal cross-border trade.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Beijing bureau recently trimmed its forecast for Chinese sugar imports in 2016-17 to 6 million tons, which is 1.9 million below the initial estimate.

To solve its own sugar supply issue, Chinese government has sold sugar from the state reserves. According to market sources, China’s fourth-quarter imports of raw sugar is expected to be under 350,000 metric tons, compared with 700,000 tons during the same quarter in 2015

Similarly, Egyptian authorities are pumping large amounts of sugar, both subsidized and free, into the market in a bid to control prices. Egypt has been facing a sugar scarcity due to an acute dollar shortage, which has cut imports and left the market short.

On Sunday, Egypt’s Supply Ministry raised its provision of sugar from 4,000 tons to 9,000 tons per day to secure the essential commodity, and said that the crisis is almost over. Egyptian authorities have so far seized 9,000 tons of sugar in raids on factories and warehouses, and forced temporary shutdowns on PepsiCo and Edita’s facilities. The sugar will be resold to the public at subsidized prices.

Adding to sugar’s woes, a decline in the value of the real versus the US dollar also contributed to selling. The Brazilian real has pulled back against the dollar since last Thursday. A weaker local currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more valuable. Therefore, Brazilian exporters have been increasing sales, which directly increases global supplies and pressures prices.

Sugar has broken out of the trading range, within which the commodity had been locked for more than a month. Sugar breached below the handle of 22.35 and is facing a dynamic support which is the long-term DMA50. The down side is being supported with RSI pointing downwards and wide gap between the +DI and –DI lines in the ADX chart.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 22.00, Take profit at 21.20, Stop loss at 22.40

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SP500 Inches Higher Following Economic Data – Long Position Suggested

U.S. SP500 index traded higher on Monday as better-than-expected inflation and consumer spending data outweighed bearish sentiment clouding on energy stocks.

According to the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis, inflation as measured by the PCE index rose 0.2% in September. Meanwhile, a separate report also by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Americans increased spending in September by the fastest amount in three months.

The S&P 500 added 0.23%, with eight of the 11 main sectors trading higher. Utilities and Real Estate led the gains while crude oil prices which tumbled on Monday put pressure on energy companies.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 2130.00, Take profit at 2135.00, Stop loss at 2125.00

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Daily Report on November 01, 2016

Asian equities reversed higher on Tuesday after both official and private purchasing managers’ indexes for China were reported to rally to two-year highs and top markets’ estimates. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posted at 51.2 in October, following the previous month’s reading of 50.4 and remaining above the 50-point mark for three months in a row.

Confirming government data that indicated Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years in October, the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI also rose to 51.2, beating analysts' forecasts of 50.2.

Thanks to a government infrastructure spending spree and a housing boom, the world’s second biggest economy is showing signs of stabilization with output and overall new orders growing remarkably. However, China’s new export orders contracted marginally in September, suggesting that the upbeat readings for last month largely came from improvement in domestic demand.

The Kiwi and the Aussie jumped following Chinese data as China is their biggest export market. The Australia dollar also received supports from its central bank which left the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 1.5 percent after Tuesday’s review. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe held off on expanding stimulus, citing escalating property prices, bouncing commodity prices and lower unemployment as reasons to tolerate soft consumer prices growth.

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy stance unchanged too, and pushed back the projected timing for reaching its 2 percent inflation goal as expected.
Crude prices bounced back on Tuesday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had approved a document on Monday outlining its long-term strategy. According to OPEC sources, the board of governors agreed that they should return to their role of managing the market and defending prices - which has been abandoned since 2014. OPEC officials including Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo remain optimistic that details of the output cut deal will be ironed out when oil ministers meet in late-November.

Technicals
GBPJPY

Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart
GBPJPY are still trading within the range between 126.100 and 128.400. However, the pair has approached the upper boundary and is struggling below this level which forced the pair to reverse lower a few times in the past. The British Pound has been supported by two MAs placed below the price action. If a breakout is made, the pair is expected to find its resistance at the handle of 129.600.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 128.500, Take profit at 129.600, Stop loss at 127.900

AUDCAD

Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart
AUDCAD has soared strongly from its three-day lows at 1.01230 and is marching to the multi-year highs at 1.02846 logged last Wednesday. The pair is much likely to reach this level with RSI is at high level while ADX has also surged to 27.76. However, a sharp rally may cause bulls to get exhausted, not to mention the market has neared the overbought zone. A pullback is expected at the 1.02846 level.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 1.02845, Take profit at 1.02350, Stop loss at 1.03000.

AUDUSD

Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
The Aussie has rallied steeply from the 23.6% retracement at 0.75963 and has broken through the resistance at 0.76500. Although the market has penetrated the overbought zone, as indicated by the RSI, ADX chart showed no sign of the uptrend that is about to get weak. AUDUSD is expected to test the highest since October 26th at 0.77000.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 0.76650, Take profit at 0.77000, Stop loss at 0.76350

SILVER

Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver has approached the resistance at 17.960 after steadily up moves from the support at 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 17.418. Coupled with two MAs that are moving below the price action, the RSI is heading upwards to the overbought territory, consolidating the uptrend. The resistance at 38.2% level is within the sight.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 18.000, Take profit at 18.280, Stop loss at 17.800

Sugar

Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart
Although the market has entered the oversold zone, silver remains in its downtrend which started one week ago. The grey metal has retreated consistently and may hit the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement if the price keeps falling. As can be observed from indicator charts, while RSI has fallen to as low as 20.01, ADX has reached the high level at 66.42.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 21.55, Take profit at 21.15, Stop loss at 21.75

CAC40

Fig: CAC40 H4 Technical Chart
France’s CAC40 futures opened with a wide gap up and brought the price action above two MAs. The index breached the resistance at 4528.00 and is attempting the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 4579.48. As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the %K line is far ahead of the %D line, suggesting strong uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 4335.00, Take profit at 4555.00, Stop loss at 4528.00

EUR/NZD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 08:15 1/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 1/11/2016

Buy at 1.53300
Take profit at 1.53500
Stop loss at 1.53100