AceTraderFx : Intra-day Market Moving News and Views on Majors

AceTraderFx Oct 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Oct 2016 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr rallied ahead of Tokyo open on broad-based yen selling as release of upbeat U.S. ISM mfg index boosted risk sentiment, price easily penetrated last week high and also strong res at 101.84 and climbed to intra-day top of 102.21 after tripping stops above 101.85, suggesting the pair is likely to extend recent cross-inspired gain after minor consolidation.

Bids have been raised to 101.90-101.85 and more below with stops below 101.60.
Some offers are tipped at 102.20/30 and more above with stops touted above 102.80.

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AceTraderFx Oct 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Oct 2016 03:02GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1224.. Euro trade with a firm undertone after yesterday's wild swings in New York morning session. Despite falling in tandem with sterling in Europe to 1.1151 and then a brief drop to 1.1138 on hawkish comments by Richmond Fed President Jeff Lacker (he is not a voting FOMC member in 2016), euro 'jumped' on BLP report about ECB's QE tapering plan (see 00:40GMT update).
Although price quickly retreated to 1.1177, renewed buying emerged and lifted price.

As mentioned in previous update, traders are ignoring subsequent Reuters report an ECB media officer tweeted later on Tuesday, however, that the ECB's decision-making body has not discussed reducing the pace of its monthly bond buying. Therefore, do not get overly bullish on the euro as price may ratchet lower in European morning.
Ofers are tipped at 1.1230/40 and more above with stops reported at 1.1255/60, more stops are building above 1.1280. Initial bids are noted at 1.1200 and more below with stops below 1.1170.

Today is PMI day in the EZ starting with Italy's Markit services PMI, followed by the same fm France, Germany n EU n lastly, EU retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Oct 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Oct 2016 06:07GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Reuters just reported Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday that he does not expect the central bank will run out of government bonds to purchase for its quantitative easing programme.

Kuroda, speaking in the upper house budget committee, also said the BOJ is prohibited from directly underwriting government debt and that the BOJ conducts all its debt purchases in the secondary market, and that quantitative easing will not lead to hyperinflation.
Earlier on, despite yesterday's cross-inspired rally in New York following upbeat U.S. ISM services data and then subsequent gain to a 4-week high of 113.66 in New York afternoon, dlr pared recent upmove n retreated to 103.35 in Asian trading on talk of selling by Japanese importers to take advantage of this week's strong gain of 2-1/2 yen (Monday's low was 101.16).

Expect sideways swings below 103.66 to continue before price makes another upside attempt in European morning, however, as U.S. weekly jobless claims being the only data until Friday's key payrolls, beware of long liquidation in New York session as dlr's move this week has been pretty much 'over-extended'.
Offers are noted at 103.60/70 and more above with stops above 103.85 and more above 104.00.
Bids are noted at 103.20-00 area with stops reported below there, more stops are touted below 102.60.

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AceTraderFx Oct 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Oct 2016 03:10GMT

USD/JPY - ....... The pair pared (pun intended) this week's strong gain as the wild swings in sterling ahead of Asian open triggered a wave of yen-buying on risk aversion, some may say traders are taking risk off the table especially ahead of release of the key U.S. payrolls later in the day.

Although price fell to 103.54 in Asia after hitting a 1-month high of 104.16 in New York morning following upbeat U.S. weekly jobless claims (first-time filings for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to a near 43-year low), buying interest emerged and lifted dlr, suggesting range trading is in store until European open.

Offers are tipped at 104.00/10 n more above with stops above September's peak at 104.32.
Initial bids are noted at 103.55-45 and more below with stops touted below 103.30, there is market chatter of stops building below 103.00.

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AceTraderFx Oct 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Oct 2016 05:40GMT

GBP/USD - 1.2450.. Reuters just reported an outlying trade in sterling that created a fresh 31-year low for the currency on Friday has been cancelled, said Thomson Reuters, which owns the Reuters foreign exchange brokerage platform RTSL.

The cancellation resulted in the sterling's GBP=D3 low of $1.1378, captured on charts in early Asian trading, being revised to $1.1491.

Sterling plunged in early trade on Friday as anxiety over a "hard" exit by Britain from the European Union triggered a wave of selling.

At the new 31-year lows, sterling was still down 9 percent from Thursday's close at one point and 11 percent since Sept. 29. It later recouped most of the losses seen in Asia but was still down around 1.4 percent by early afternoon.

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AceTraderFx Oct 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Oct 2016 01:01GMT

GBP/USD - 1.2343.. Cable fell ahead of Asian open on sterling-bearish news. Reuters reported Britain could lose up to 66 billion pounds a year under a "hard Brexit", The Times reported citing leaked government papers.
GDP could fall by as much 9.5 percent if Britain leaves the European Union compared with if it stays within the union, The Times reported.
The 66-billion-pound figure was in a draft cabinet committee paper which was seen by The Times.

A report by consultancy firm Oliver Wyman earlier this week said Britain's financial industry could lose up to 38 billion pounds in revenue in a 'hard Brexit'.
A quarterly survey of 7,000 businesses by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) on Monday showed that Business investment and turnover confidence in the UK had hit four-year lows.
Another survey by Deloitte reported that chief financial officers in major British firms reported only a partial rebound in business morale after a post-Brexit vote nosedive.

Retailers were starting to mitigate the impact of higher import costs due to the fall in the value of the pound, she said in a statement, adding to signs that prices are likely to rise following the EU referendum in June and eat into spending power.
The BRC added its voice to a chorus of business groups who are calling on Prime Minister Theresa May to minimise the impact of Brexit on the economy.

On a like-for-like basis, stripping out changes in the amount of retail space open to shoppers over the past 12 months, sales rose by an annual 0.4 percent in September after falling by 0.9 percent in August.
Over the three months to September, total sales were up 1.0 percent, higher than in most of 2016 but slower than in 2015.

Separately on Tuesday, credit card firm Barclaycard sounded more upbeat, saying consumer spending grew by 3.6 percent in the July-September period, speeding up from 2.8 percent and 3.1 percent in the first and second quarters of 2016.
Barclaycard also said its measure of consumer confidence in the British economy hit its highest level since it began tracking it in 2014, with 48 percent of people saying they feel upbeat, up from 34 percent in the second quarter.

That confidence contrasts with the mood among many employers. Surveys published on Monday showed weak investment intentions as the prospect of Brexit weighs on firms.

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AceTraderFx Oct 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Oct 2016 03:05GMT

GBP/USD - 1.2322.. Sterling took centre stage in Asia trading and staged a spectacular rally from 1.2107 in early Australian morning to as high as 1.2326. Traders attributed to cable's stellar performance on early sterling-supportive report on Bloomberg.

BLP reported PM Theresa May has accepted that Parliament should be allowed to vote on her plan for taking Britain out of the European Union, but asked lawmakers to do it in a way that gives her space to negotiate.
The decision seemed to calm investors after they dumped the pound on concern May was taking a gung-ho approach to the negotiations. The currency took a beating after May signaled her intention to put immigration curbs before the City of London's interests in pulling Britain out of the European Union.

Parliament will debate on Wednesday a motion from the opposition Labour Party calling for a "full and transparent debate on the government's plan for leaving the EU" and for Parliament to be able to "properly scrutinize that plan" before she begins formal talks. The request is supported by some lawmakers from May's own Conservative Party.

In response, May late on Tuesday tabled an amendment that effectively accepted the motion, adding that there shouldn't be an attempt to block Brexit or "undermine the negotiating position of the government."

A look at the debate about the role of Parliament in Brexit and why it matters.

The pound is the world's worst-performing major currency against the greenback this month, sinking more than 5 percent. The currency clawed back some ground in early Asian trading on Wednesday, gaining 1.3 percent.
Against this backdrop, a London Court this week will rule whether May can trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which starts an exit, without approval from her fellow lawmakers.

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AceTraderFx Oct 13: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Oct 2016 03:15GMT

USD/JPY - 103.65.. Despite continuing its recent winning streak and touching a fresh 2-month peak of 104.64 shortly after Tokyo open, profit taking then emerged n knocked price lower, intra-day decline accelerated as the Nikkie moved into the black as downbeat China trade data spoofed investors and in turn led to broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion, the pair tumbled to as low as 103.56 before stabilising.

Well, you don't need to be currency guru to predict recent usd's upmove has made a temp. top today and this high print will be marked as this week's top too.
Expect range trading to take place until European open and offers are tipped at 104.00/10 and more above with stops above 104.65.
Some minor bids are noted at 103.60-50 with stops touted below 103.10, suggesting selling the pair on intra-day recovery is favoured.

No major U.S. economic data are due out except the usual weekly jobless claims which gave the buck a lift last week but any corrective bounce should be views as a good selling opportunity for further downward correction to continue later. Market focus will be Fri's U.S. retail sales but this is tomorrow's business.

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AceTraderFx Oct 14: Intra-Day News and Views AUD/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Oct 2016 01:30GMT

AUD/USD - ...... Reuters just reported Australia's financial system is resilient to possible shocks though rising risks in the apartment and resource sectors bear close watching, the country's central bank said on Friday.

In a 52-page semi-annual report on the health of the banking sector, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) highlighted pockets of domestic and foreign dangers.
Rising debt in China was a key concern, it said, since a rash of defaults could cause economic disruption in Australia's single biggest export market.

Domestically, booming supply of new apartments in some inner-cities has raised the risk of a marked oversupply. If apartment market conditions were to deteriorate, banks could face material losses, the RBA warned.

Australia has successfully used historically low borrowing costs to spark a boom in home building that has helped shepherd the economy through the dog days of a global mining downturn.
But concerns about a borrowing-fuelled bubble in home prices was one of the reasons why the country's central bank left interest rates at 1.5 percent this month.

It added that risks to financial stability from lending to households have lessened over the past six months as lending standards improved and the pace of credit growth slowed.

Banks have also taken steps to rein in risks including restrictions on lending to borrowers relying on foreign income and tightening lending conditions for new property developments.
The RBA pointed to risks in New Zealand given Australian banks have their largest international exposures there.

However, stronger capital and liquidity positions have bolstered the resilience of Australian banks, the RBA said, adding that a range of policies that are being finalised by regulators will further strengthen their position.
Australian banks have raised A$20 billion in capital since last year to boost their finances and have reduced focus on low-returning activities such as institutional lending.

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AceTraderFx Oct 17: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Oct 2016 01:13GMT

GBP/USD - ...... A piece of Brexit news which came on yesterday worth noting. Reuters reported British lawmakers from across the political spectrum will press their bid to force Prime Minister Theresa May to give parliament a vote on her negotiating strategy for leaving the European Union, saying she had no mandate for a "hard Brexit".

As Britain embarks on some of its most complex diplomatic negotiations since World War Two, Nick Clegg, former deputy prime minister, said May's plan to invoke Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty by the end of March - triggering the formal Brexit procedure - would hand power to the other 27 EU members.
Lawmakers from the ruling Conservative Party, opposition Labour Party and Clegg's Liberal Democrats said they accepted Britain had voted to leave, but have called for a debate and vote in parliament to try to influence the terms of the divorce.
Clegg said he backed a "soft Brexit" in which Britain stays in or close to the EU's lucrative single market, and urged May to try to "square the circle" over whether Britain will have to sacrifice full participation in the single market to restore control over immigration.
May has said she will deliver Britain's vote in the referendum to reduce the numbers of EU migrants arriving in the country and restore British sovereignty, but she has also been careful to say she wants the "best deal" for business.

Uncertainty over what kind of deal Britain will pursue has unsettled investors and markets.
The British currency is particularly sensitive to any suggestion that the country might be heading towards a "hard Brexit", or a clean break from the EU's single market of 500 million consumers.

Priti Patel, the minister for international development who campaigned to leave the EU, said parliament already had the opportunity to debate and discuss Britain's divorce from the EU.

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Oct 2016 03:13GMT

USD/JPY - The greenback fell ahead of Tokyo open, price briefly penetrated New York low at 103.80 and staged a minor recovery, however, broad-based usd's weakness in early Asian trading quickly knocked price to intra-day low of 103.68 before rebounding on cross-selling in yen.

The pair came under selling pressure in early New York trading on Mon after downbeat U.S. New York Fed mfg index, price later hit session lows of 103.80 on dovish comments by Fed Vice Chair Fischer (see earlier update).

Although intra-day usd's broad-based weakness in Asia suggests downside bias remains, daily outlook remains consolidative and range trading inside recent range is expected ahead of release of U.S. inflation data at 12:30GMT where Sep m/m CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% vs previous reading of 0.2%, if the actual data comes in higher than forecast, then dlr would be supported.

Offers are tipped at 103.95/00 and more above with stops above 104.50.
Initial bids are noted at 103.65-55 with stops below 103.30

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Oct 2016 03:13GMT

USD/JPY - The greenback fell ahead of Tokyo open, price briefly penetrated New York low at 103.80 and staged a minor recovery, however, broad-based usd's weakness in early Asian trading quickly knocked price to intra-day low of 103.68 before rebounding on cross-selling in yen.

The pair came under selling pressure in early New York trading on Mon after downbeat U.S. New York Fed mfg index, price later hit session lows of 103.80 on dovish comments by Fed Vice Chair Fischer (see earlier update).

Although intra-day usd's broad-based weakness in Asia suggests downside bias remains, daily outlook remains consolidative and range trading inside recent range is expected ahead of release of U.S. inflation data at 12:30GMT where Sep m/m CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% vs previous reading of 0.2%, if the actual data comes in higher than forecast, then dlr would be supported.

Offers are tipped at 103.95/00 and more above with stops above 104.50.
Initial bids are noted at 103.65-55 with stops below 103.30

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AceTraderFx Oct 20: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Oct 2016 02:39GMT

USD/JPY - 103.51.. Despite yesterday's resumption of decline to a 1-week low of 113.17 in New York morning on broad-based yen-buying, price rebounded to 103.50 on short covering near New York close and intra-day strong performance in the Nikkie (N225 rose to a near 5-mth high of 17195 n currently at 17169) together with hawkish comments by New York Fed President William Dudley boosted risk sentiment, dlr climbed to 103.67 after tripping stops above 103.50, suggesting low has been made and consolidation with upside bias is in store.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Australia employment change, participation rate, unemployment rate, business confidence, Germany producer prices, Swiss imports, exports, trade balance, Eurozone current account, refinancing rate, deposit rate, U.K. retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, existing home sales and leading index change.

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AceTraderFx Oct 24: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Oct 2016 03:23GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback moved narrowly in quiet Asian trading on Monday, however, price has generally maintained a firm undertone followed renewed usd's strength on Friday.
Despite Friday's intra-day decline from 104.20 to 113.52 (New York), renewed usd's strength lifted price to 104.00 and current firmness suggest consolidation with upside bias remains.

Bids are noted at 103.75-65 and more below with stops below 103.50, bigger stops are touted below 113.10.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 104.00/20 area with stops abv there, suggesting buying dlr on dips is recommended.

Later in the day, U.S. will release national activity index at 12:30GMT and then the important Markit Oct flash manufacturing index at 13:45GMT, street forecast is looking for a reading to come in at 51.6 vs previous figure of 51.5. Last but not least, pay attention to speeches by Fed's James Bullard and Fed's Charles Evans at 13:05GMT and 17:30GMT respectively.

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AceTraderFx Oct 24: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Oct 2016 09:05GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Reuters just reported Business activity in the euro zone has expanded at the fastest rate this year in October, even as firms raise prices at the sharpest rate in more than five years, a survey showed on Monday.
The bloc's dominant service industry also performed much better than expected. Its PMI came in at a nine-month high of 53.5, ahead of September's 52.2 and beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll where the median call was for 52.4.

Suggesting the acceleration could continue into November, new business soared. The index registered 53.2, up from 52.5.
Manufacturers followed the same trend. The factory PMI climbed to a 30-month high of 53.3, above the poll median and September's 52.6, while the output index, which feeds into the composite PMI, jumped to 54.4 from 53.8.
Growth in the services sector picked up again after having nearly stagnated in September, while activity at factories also increased to its highest level in just over 2-1/2 years.

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AceTraderFx Oct 25: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Oct 2016 02:31GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Although the single currency gained respite in choppy Monday's trading after meeting renewed buying at Asian open one tick above last Friday's 7-month low at 1.0859 and rebounded, price hit session highs of 1.0900 following upbeat German n EU mfg PMIs.
However, renewed selling emerged pushed price lower, euro retreated to 1.0869 in New York after upbeat U.S. mfg PMI and then to 1.0868 at Asian open, suggesting intra-day downside bias remains for a re-test of 1.0859, then later towards daily chart obj. at 1.0821.

Offers are tipped at 1.0890/00 and more above with stops above 1.0920.
A mixture of bids and stops is touted near 1.0860, suggesting selling euro on recovery is recommended.

Although there is release of a slew of EZ data, market focus is the key German Ifo business climate (confidence) index, October forecast is 103.0 vs previous reading of 103.0.
If actual reading comes in at or below street forecast, then euro should come under renewed selling pressure.

Later today, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at a forum on the topic "Stability, Equity and Monetary Policy" in Berlin at 15:30 GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 26: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Oct 2016 01:04GMT

EUR/USD - .... Reuters reported earlier the European Central Bank is aware of the growing costs to the financial sector of its ultra-loose monetary policy and would rather not have to keep negative interest rates for too long, ECB President Mario Draghi said on New York session.

Speaking in Berlin, Draghi defended the ECB's policy of aggressive bond buying and ultra-low rates from accusations that it has led to growing inequality and a shift of financial income from stronger to weaker economies.
But he also acknowledged complaints by banks, particularly in Germany, that low rates are eating into their profits.
The ECB is studying options to ensure its 80 billion euros a month ($87.06 billion) money printing programme can run at least until March as eligible assets to buy in Germany run scarce.

Draghi's comments were likely to further lengthen the odds on another cut in the ECB's deposit rate of -0.40 percent, effectively a charge banks have to pay for parking money overnight with the central bank and that record-low interest rates in the euro zone are not a 'new normal', although the single currency area will remain vulnerable without a full monetary and banking union.
He also tackled a common German criticism that the ECB's low rates were hurting small savers.
Draghi said the ECB was aware that low interest rates and plenty of liquidity could be a recipe for financial stability risks but saw no such risks at the moment.

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AceTraderFx Oct 27: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Oct 2016 02:05GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dollar swung wildly in volatile trading in Thursday's Asian trading. Despite extending o/n gain made in New York session to 104.70 at Tokyo open, renewed broad-based buying in yen (some touted dlr selling by Japanese exporters) capped intra-day rise and mildly hawkish comments by BoJ official Iwata and then his boss Kuroda led to more yen-buying, knocking the pair to intra-day low of 104.38, suggesting further choppy consolidation below Tuesday's near 3-month peak at 104.87 would continue with downside bias.

Offers are tipped at 104.60/70 and more above with stops reported above 105.00.
Initial bids are noted at 104.30-20 and more below with stops building up below 104.00 level, so selling the greenback of recovery is favoured.

Pay attention to a slew of U.S. data starting with weekly initial jobless claims, durable goods order, pending home sales and Kansas City Fed mfg index, the buck is expected to react to these data, so be nimble and be quick when they are released.

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AceTraderFx Oct 27: Intra-Day News and Views

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Oct 2016 06:34GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Despite staging an impressive rally in Europe on active short covering yesterday n then hitting session high of 1.0946 in New York morning, euro pared intra-day after release of upbeat U.S. Markit services PMI and later retreated to 1.0900 near New York close. Short-term specs sold euro ahead of Asian open n knocked price to 1.0892, lack of follow-through selling then lifted price to 1.0905.

Looks like range trading with downside bias is in store in early European trading as traders may want to test euro's downside after yesterday's strong rebound.
Offers are tipped at 1.0915/25 and more above with stops reported above 1.0955.
Initial bids are noted at 1.0895/90 n more below with stops below 1.0873.
However, there is market chatter of option barrier/defense at 1.0850, so one can trade the single currency from both sideways ahead of Friday's key U.S. GDP data.

No important economic data is due out from the EZ, so market will take cue from release of a slew of U.S. data later in the day. ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny will deliver a speech in Cyprus at 13:00GMT and then at 17:00GMT, Yves Mersch will speak at a financial forum in Germany.

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AceTraderFx Oct 28: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Oct 2016 00:03GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Reuters reported earlier British consumers turned less optimistic this month as sterling's slump began to eat into their disposable income, according to two surveys on Friday which will raise concerns about the strength of future spending growth.

Britain's economy has performed better than most forecasts since June's referendum decision to leave the European Union, in large part thanks to strong consumer spending.
But finance minister Philip Hammond said it did not mean the economy would dodge a slowdown next year.

Market research firm GfK said sentiment fell for the first time since the immediate shock of the Brexit vote. Its consumer confidence index dropped to -3 in October from -1 in September.
A similar survey by polling firm YouGov showed the weakest confidence since July and the view of households of their finances showed the biggest deterioration since December 2014.

Sterling has lost almost 20 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar since the referendum. British inflation rose to 1 percent in the year to September and could hit 3 percent by the end of next year, many economists say.

Separate figures from supermarket chain Asda showed that households' disposable income - after tax, housing, food and other bills - rose by the smallest amount in almost two years.
Prices for essentials rose by the largest amount since November 2014, and the cost of imports was likely to increase further due to the weak pound, Asda said.

But a robust job market and relatively low inflation should help spending in the immediate future and GfK noted households were more willing to make major purchases than a year ago.
The GfK survey of 2,001 people was conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 15, on behalf of the European Commission. YouGov's polling was done in the first three weeks of October.

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