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There are no secret patterns and there will never be one 381 replies

Nice Little Trade here on EUR/USD 1 reply

Little Confused here !!!!! 7 replies

Looking for a little advise here 5 replies

Attachments: A Little Breakout Here and There
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A Little Breakout Here and There

  • #121
  • Oct 20, 2016 6:37pm Oct 20, 2016 6:37pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} No PDF in the attachments.
It's a link to the webpage, here:

http://masrukhin.yolasite.com/resources/10%20PIPS.pdf

(post #45)
  • #122
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:00pm Oct 20, 2016 7:00pm
OK, so here's how it all looked today:

GBPCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADDailythreekings20thoct.png Size: 27 KB


GBPJPY
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDailythreekings20thoct.png Size: 22 KB


EURUSD
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDailythreekings20thoct.png Size: 21 KB


GBPCHF
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFDailythreekings20thoct.png Size: 20 KB


EURJPY
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDailythreekings20thoct.png Size: 34 KB
  • #123
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:02pm Oct 20, 2016 7:02pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} It's a link to the webpage, here: http://masrukhin.yolasite.com/resources/10%20PIPS.pdf (post #45)
Thank you, Mate.
Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #124
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:10pm Oct 20, 2016 7:10pm
AUDJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYDailythreekings20thoct.png Size: 25 KB


GBPAUD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDDailythreekings20thoct.png Size: 21 KB


At a quick look, it seems like 8 trades and 7 Wins, 1 probable Loss (EURJPY). Only one faced the ''wrong'' way - and it was a winner. USDCHF had a diamond formation and could have been triggered both directions. I only recorded the one in the right direction away from the sma. As it turned out the other direction would have been a winner too.
  • #125
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:11pm Oct 20, 2016 7:11pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Thank you, Mate. Cheers!
You're welcome, Buddy.
  • #126
  • Oct 20, 2016 10:07pm Oct 20, 2016 10:07pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} At this kind of strike-rate, you'd need to take a close look at your r:r, bearing in mind that the pdf version (the one I have been looking at) looks for a tp which is relatively small in relation to the sl, though I haven't had a chance to really get into that side of things yet.

unfortunately I don't think I have the computing power nor the expertise in running various automatic backtests, shopuld an EA be developed.

Placing the stop above (below) the 3rd bar may not give the best R:R at all if aiming for 10 pips because the distance from the entry at open of 4th bar to the low of 3bar (if going long) is quite often quite large, in excess of 50 pips depending on which pair and timeframe.

I would ultimately like to compare results from different setups with different stop loss and take profit combinations. Different setups could be Method 2 and Method 3 I outlined earlier, ie any 3 bar swing with a lower 3rd close, or a more specific 3 bar swing with lower 3rd close or incorporating a filter to these such as an MA. However, I don't wish to alter the rules to much so that the initial concepts look nothing like they did!

using 2 different stops - the one just mentioned, and for profit testing out:

1. a set target of 10, 20, 30+ pips
2. an ATR(50) of the 3rd bar with take profit options including an ATR(50) multiple of say x1 or x2
3. exiting at the close of the entry bar whether in profit or not
4. exiting on close after x number of bars (time based close)

im sure there's lot of other methods that might be viable options as well.


And I'd also like to be able to automatically backtest the first method outlined in this thread which might need to be a thread all on its own.
  • #127
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:48am Oct 21, 2016 2:48am
Quoting HarryPlopper
{quote} unfortunately I don't think I have the computing power nor the expertise in running various automatic backtests, shopuld an EA be developed. Placing the stop above (below) the 3rd bar may not give the best R:R at all if aiming for 10 pips because the distance from the entry at open of 4th bar to the low of 3bar (if going long) is quite often quite large, in excess of 50 pips depending on which pair and timeframe. I would ultimately like to compare results from different setups with different stop loss and take profit combinations. Different...
Yeah. There are almost as many questions now posed by the sl question as there have been on all other topics so far.

One way I had looked at it, was a counter-trend strategy if your +10 wasn't hit on the first move and price pulls back over the entry. However, on the daily, that can happen a lot early and do you have a hard stop -10 back and simply re-enter?

You could use a fib-map on the last bar, or the pattern overall instead of the ATR option?

No matter what, I think we would all agree that having the sl at the end of the 3rd bar is just not going to work as a bare strategy. The only way to use the end of the bar, I think, would be a counter-trade halfway down that bar and trade it like a Wick-Zone trade - but then we are away on a completely different track on a completely different strategy, lol.
  • #128
  • Oct 21, 2016 9:03am Oct 21, 2016 9:03am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I think we would all agree that having the sl at the end of the 3rd bar is just not going to work as a bare strategy. The only way to use the end of the bar,

actually I don't agree because the majority of trades I saw on 4hr did not get stopped out from breaching the 3rd bar, using Method 3 which was either the bullish, bearish, bearish or bearish bullish bullish pattern. Although less trades than taking every kind of 3bar swing pattern, this method had a higher win rate. If this was found to occur on more currencies than the ones I did a rudimentary manual backtest with, then I'm inclined to have an EA professionally created for this emthod.

ANother option regarding stop losss and 10 pips could be to move stop to breakeven immediately when up 10pips, or up a proportion of the ATR figure

All this could lead to a discussion/test of which is the optimal timeframe....
  • #129
  • Oct 21, 2016 9:56am Oct 21, 2016 9:56am
Quoting HarryPlopper
{quote} actually I don't agree because the majority of trades I saw on 4hr did not get stopped out from breaching the 3rd bar, using Method 3 which was either the bullish, bearish, bearish or bearish bullish bullish pattern. Although less trades than taking every kind of 3bar swing pattern, this method had a higher win rate. If this was found to occur on more currencies than the ones I did a rudimentary manual backtest with, then I'm inclined to have an EA professionally created for this emthod. ANother option regarding stop losss and 10 pips could...
What is the difference exacty between method 1,2,3? I think I got lost along the way lol.
  • #130
  • Oct 21, 2016 10:31am Oct 21, 2016 10:31am
Quoting JAKammus
{quote} What is the difference exacty between method 1,2,3? I think I got lost along the way lol.
sorry it's got a bit confusing now,

Method 1 starts off in Post 1

I then applied the closing bar concept to 3bar swing highs and lows, and called it Method 2, from Post 45.

I narrowed down Method 2 to a more specific pattern for swing highs and lows and called it Method 3, from Post 55. So far Method 3 on my backtests seems to have the best win rate, with a win being defined as being at least 10 pips in profit.
  • #131
  • Oct 21, 2016 10:38am Oct 21, 2016 10:38am
Quoting HarryPlopper
{quote} actually I don't agree because the majority of trades I saw on 4hr did not get stopped out from breaching the 3rd bar, using Method 3 which was either the bullish, bearish, bearish or bearish bullish bullish pattern. Although less trades than taking every kind of 3bar swing pattern, this method had a higher win rate. If this was found to occur on more currencies than the ones I did a rudimentary manual backtest with, then I'm inclined to have an EA professionally created for this emthod. ANother option regarding stop losss and 10 pips could...
Yeah, sorry HP, I was still thinking more about the Daily TF, not H4. I do like the +10 pips lock in though.
  • #132
  • Oct 21, 2016 10:45am Oct 21, 2016 10:45am
Quoting JAKammus
{quote} What is the difference exacty between method 1,2,3? I think I got lost along the way lol.
On 1-2-3, or on TooSlow's version of it anyway and that's the one I trade, you wait for a bar to test a new daily high/low made by the previous bar. If that move fails and drops back, you enter on the cross over the failed bar's open. On HP's, basically, you enter at the close of the bar which forms the third part of the ''arrow'' shape (or again, on the version I like best, you do, lol.)
  • #133
  • Oct 21, 2016 10:48am Oct 21, 2016 10:48am
Quoting gince
EMA144 increase the number of bar {image} {file} {file}

hi Gince, sorry I mised your earlier post. Thanks for your contribution! I tried using the indicator but nothing happens when I load it, unsure what the Step, Maximum, Precision and price inputs are...
  • #134
  • Oct 21, 2016 10:58am Oct 21, 2016 10:58am
Quoting HarryPlopper
{quote} sorry it's got a bit confusing now, Method 1 starts off in Post 1 I then applied the closing bar concept to 3bar swing highs and lows, and called it Method 2, from Post 45. I narrowed down Method 2 to a more specific pattern for swing highs and lows and called it Method 3, from Post 55....
Sorry, HP, that's probably a lot to do with me. Got all excited!

Never my intention to hijack your thread and of course, the direction this goes is entirely up to yourself. This is your baby!

I do thank you for sending me to the PDF version along the way and I think what I may do is step back a bit and concentrate my testing on that for a bit on my own and let things settle down a bit here for you. I will keep the 5-sma add-on and see if there is something there when tested as-live. Maybe at some stage, the best bits can be pulled together into some uber-version.

I will continue to drop by and say hi and will keep you up to date on anything I find worth sharing...just without all the charts, lol.
  • #135
  • Oct 21, 2016 11:11am Oct 21, 2016 11:11am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} On 1-2-3, or on TooSlow's version of it anyway and that's the one I trade, you wait for a bar to test a new daily high/low made by the previous bar. If that move fails and drops back, you enter on the cross over the failed bar's open. On HP's, basically, you enter at the close of the bar which forms the third part of the ''arrow'' shape (or again, on the version I like best, you do, lol.)
Thank you for the clarification. Do you mind posting some images with examples of your strategy? If I understood correctly, the method is very similar but takes place at key levels. Is that correct?
  • #136
  • Oct 21, 2016 11:14am Oct 21, 2016 11:14am
Quoting HarryPlopper
{quote} sorry it's got a bit confusing now, Method 1 starts off in Post 1 I then applied the closing bar concept to 3bar swing highs and lows, and called it Method 2, from Post 45. I narrowed down Method 2 to a more specific pattern for swing highs and lows and called it Method 3, from Post 55. So far Method 3 on my backtests...
Thanks for clarification. I did this EA very quick in what I believe is what you meant for method 3. Can you please check? It might be similar to TooSlow, not sure.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 HPBreak.ex4   14 KB | 256 downloads
  • #137
  • Oct 21, 2016 11:26am Oct 21, 2016 11:26am
AU 4hr Method 2 backtest to January 1st 2016: 52 signals, 38 wins, 14 losses. However, the indicator I'm using an indicator for Method 2 I got from another forum but it's not including outside bars, and I did see around another 4 wins if they'd been included. I think it was 26 wins, no losses for Method 3.
  • #138
  • Oct 21, 2016 11:28am Oct 21, 2016 11:28am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Sorry, HP, that's probably a lot to do with me. Got all excited! Never my intention to hijack your thread and of course, the direction this goes is entirely up to yourself. This is your baby! I do thank you for sending me to the PDF version along the way and I think what I may do is step back a bit and concentrate my testing on that for a bit on my own and let things settle down a bit here for you. I will keep the 5-sma add-on and see if there is something there when tested as-live. Maybe at some stage, the best bits can be pulled together...
no problem
  • #139
  • Oct 21, 2016 11:38am Oct 21, 2016 11:38am
Quoting JAKammus
{quote} Thanks for clarification. I did this EA very quick in what I believe is what you meant for method 3. Can you please check? It might be similar to TooSlow, not sure. {file}

thanks JAKammus, just tried it, not sure what all the MA settings are. I'm not using any MA filters at present, so just left the default settings as is. It placed arrows all over the place,. I think you've based it on Lemercenaire's adaptation ("On 1-2-3, or on TooSlow's version of it anyway and that's the one I trade, you wait for a bar to test a new daily high/low made by the previous bar. If that move fails and drops back, you enter on the cross over the failed bar's open.") which is different to Method 3.
  • #140
  • Oct 21, 2016 12:01pm Oct 21, 2016 12:01pm
I forgot to mention to ignore the settings (MAs) lol. I used that from another indicator I did previously. I did pop arrows all over the place which is why I'm trying to understand how you are filtering the entries.. I put this image below and numbered the trades. Can you please tell me which ones are good or bad entries and why accordingly to method 3 if that is the most profitable one. In addition, I've been working on some filters based in your strategy (which I apparently got it wrong lol). Take a look and let me know what you think.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rere2.PNG Size: 46 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 HPBreak_Mod_V1.ex4   14 KB | 334 downloads
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