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A Little Breakout Here and There

  • #101
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:09pm Oct 18, 2016 12:09pm
Lemercenaire, sure, in time I'm going to widen the criteria a bit, for example, 3 bears or 3 bulls also seems to work well. I'm wondering if the relationship of the 3rd bar's close to the previous bar has any baring on the validity of the setup...

Regarding TP options, another is to exit the trade upon the close of the trigger bar. Or some kind of pre-defined amount such as 10 pips, or an ATR(50) multiple....

In time I'd like to check how the results on 1hr stack up, whether overall it's a better win/loss rate vs amount of trades occurring. Also thinking not to take any trade if any of the bars in the pattern have gapped.
  • #102
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:21pm Oct 18, 2016 12:21pm
AU 4hr: 26 wins, 0 losses, last signal 26 Dec 2015

way past bedtime now
  • #103
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:28pm Oct 18, 2016 12:28pm
Quoting HarryPlopper
Lemercenaire, sure, in time I'm going to widen the criteria a bit, for example, 3 bears or 3 bulls also seems to work well. I'm wondering if the relationship of the 3rd bar's close to the previous bar has any baring on the validity of the setup... Regarding TP options, another is to exit the trade upon the close of the trigger bar. Or some kind of pre-defined amount such as 10 pips, or an ATR(50) multiple.... In time I'd like to check how the results on 1hr stack up, whether overall it's a better win/loss rate vs amount of trades occurring. Also...
May only be a small blip sample but the times I have scanned for H1 trades, they don't seem anywhere near as robust. I would certainly agree about the gap situation. A possible TP option could be a fib-map of some kind built around the trigger bar or the whole pattern.
  • #104
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:58pm Oct 18, 2016 12:58pm
One other situation that may need another look-see, is when the bar immediately before the pattern (for a short) is higher than the first bar of the pattern - and vice versa. I don't know if it is anything or nothing, as this is only something I have just come across - but the couple that I have seen form like that have failed.
  • #105
  • Oct 19, 2016 3:16am Oct 19, 2016 3:16am
GBPCAD Long for us today...

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GBPUSD Long...

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GBPNZD Long...

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GBPJPY Long...

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EURGBP Short...

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  • #106
  • Oct 19, 2016 3:26am Oct 19, 2016 3:26am
EURUSD Long...

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GBPCHF Long...

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AUDCHF Long...

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AUDJPY Long...

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NZDJPY Long...

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  • #107
  • Oct 19, 2016 3:29am Oct 19, 2016 3:29am
Missed this cracker on my previous look backs - AUDNZD Short, from a couple of days ago...

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  • #108
  • Oct 19, 2016 5:16am Oct 19, 2016 5:16am
@lemercenaire,i saw that last trade but was a little scared to take it ,the candles were a little stacked up ,indicating maybe a start of a ranging period,what do you guys think?
  • #109
  • Oct 19, 2016 6:22am Oct 19, 2016 6:22am
The market doesn't always play ball the way we'd like it even when our conditions appear to be met to take a trade on, irrespective of what strategy is being applied, that's just a fact of trading and we can't know for sure which ones will do as we expect them to.

Obviously it would be great if all our trades were winners straight off the bat, but we have to be realistic and satisfied that a perceived edge will produce more winners than losers in the long run.

I have placed 7 trades this week using my version, of which 4 are doing quite well, and 3 are struggling for example. Here's a chart of one of my strugglers from EN h1, which as we know is a notoriously tricky pair at the best of times, but nevertheless it fulfilled my entry conditions when the trade triggered.

As I said, it hasn't become a favourable trade at this stage, but the stops have not been hit, so some patience from me will need to be exercised for it to become green (if it does that is).

Anyhow, we tend to only see successful trades posted on FF across the board, and I thought I'd post this as evidence to show that that is not the case no matter what level of experience a trader has.

LL

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  • #110
  • Oct 19, 2016 10:45am Oct 19, 2016 10:45am
@ nozzer and landline (and HP of course).

Don't worry about the ''only showing winners on FF'' angle - I have a feeling that the last collection there are going to contain a share of those.

There are for sure certain variants of the patterns that stack up better than others. It then comes down to your preferred method of TP. If we are looking at the +10-a-go version, then tbh even these less-than-stellar ones will usually get that on the Daily tf. Other variants of tp maybe not so good. As we get into this deeper, we will begin to see these subtleties appear, I think.

I may have stumbled onto an angle as well. The lower TFs (under H4 and certainly H1) have not been of real interest to me so far, however in the interests of research-for-research's-sake, I looked at the m30. Now, it just so happens that I had an sma5 on in the background of these charts - you'll see it here. No connection to the method at all, by the way, just a hold over from another. However, if you use this sma5 and only take the patterns that point toward the line and trade away from it, well, that make a solid difference down on the lower TFs...maybe, lol. I'll need to do some proper analysis to be sure but it may be something, certainly to filter out those trades that maybe just fail to hit the +10 mark for instance.
  • #111
  • Oct 19, 2016 12:36pm Oct 19, 2016 12:36pm
Quoting lemercenaire
@ nozzer and landline (and HP of course). Don't worry about the ''only showing winners on FF'' angle - I have a feeling that the last collection there are going to contain a share of those. There are for sure certain variants of the patterns that stack up better than others. It then comes down to your preferred method of TP. If we are looking at the +10-a-go version, then tbh even these less-than-stellar ones will usually get that on the Daily tf. Other variants of tp maybe not so good. As we get into this deeper, we will begin to see these subtleties...
''...However, if you use this sma5 and only take the patterns that point toward the line and trade away from it, well, that make a solid difference down on the lower TFs...maybe, lol....''
Well - as an edit to this. Just had a quick look at how we're doing so far today on my Daily. All the losers - and there were losers - were pointing the wrong way, away from the 5sma. All the winners, yep, pointing toward the line. Also...I managed to miss a handful of set-ups somehow (distinct lack of sleep, probably a factor lol) and all have bagged big pips so far...and all faced the right way. Interesting.
  • #112
  • Oct 19, 2016 6:38pm Oct 19, 2016 6:38pm
Quoting nozzer
@lemercenaire,i saw that last trade but was a little scared to take it ,the candles were a little stacked up ,indicating maybe a start of a ranging period,what do you guys think?
Nozzer, yes, I must admit that in the Land of Elsewhere, I would be looking to buy this on pullbacks after, yes, a probably/hopefully small ranging period.
  • #113
  • Edited 7:16pm Oct 19, 2016 6:52pm | Edited 7:16pm
Right then. Here we go with the day's moves - or lack of - in the bag.

GBPUSD

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GBPNZD

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EURCAD - Missed this from this morning's post.

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GBPCAD - First Loss...though I suppose it should be described more as first-not-to-make-ten, as the trade hasn't been stopped out yet...

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USDCAD - Another missed.

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  • #114
  • Oct 19, 2016 7:00pm Oct 19, 2016 7:00pm
GBPJPY

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EURGBP

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EURUSD

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GBPCHF

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AUDUSD - Another I missed and another big move.

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  • #115
  • Oct 19, 2016 7:13pm Oct 19, 2016 7:13pm
AUDCAD - I missed a lot! Another win.

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AUDCHF

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AUDJPY

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NZDJPY

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Phew...anyway, as you can see - and as far as I can tell, we would have bagged those +10 pips on all the trades except one. Now don't get me wrong, there were a good few that look like they would have sat in negative territory for part of the day before coming good but at the end of it all, they did come good.

One thing it does show is that - at least for this first day of tracking - the idea of the best/strongest trades coming from those set-ups that pointed at the 5-sma seems to be ringing true. Certainly of those ''better'' trades, these contained the ones that went for big pips after bagging the initial +10.
  • #116
  • Oct 20, 2016 8:02am Oct 20, 2016 8:02am
Lemercenaire, nice trades. Nice use of the 5sma.
  • #117
  • Edited 10:04am Oct 20, 2016 9:44am | Edited 10:04am
Manual backtest: Using an indicator that plots an arrow whenever a 3 bar swing occurs and the 3rd bar's close is higher or lower than the previous 2 bars' highs (lows). ie, Method 2 I wrote about earlier. Going back to January 1st, 2016 on GJ 4hr, I counted 68 trades with 57 wins (in which price went up at least 10 pips) and 11 losses (where price would have breached the previous bars' high (low). Not too shabby! I'd be interested in other backtests to know how many trades would have been successful if automatically exiting on the close of the 4th bar.
  • #118
  • Oct 20, 2016 10:36am Oct 20, 2016 10:36am
EU: 49 trades since Jan 1st, 33 winners, 16 losses. Lowing winning percentage than Method 3 but 3 times as many trades
  • #119
  • Oct 20, 2016 6:12pm Oct 20, 2016 6:12pm
Quoting HarryPlopper
EU: 49 trades since Jan 1st, 33 winners, 16 losses. Lowing winning percentage than Method 3 but 3 times as many trades
At this kind of strike-rate, you'd need to take a close look at your r:r, bearing in mind that the pdf version (the one I have been looking at) looks for a tp which is relatively small in relation to the sl, though I haven't had a chance to really get into that side of things yet.
  • #120
  • Oct 20, 2016 6:24pm Oct 20, 2016 6:24pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} At this kind of strike-rate, you'd need to take a close look at your r:r, bearing in mind that the pdf version (the one I have been looking at) looks for a tp which is relatively small in relation to the sl, though I haven't had a chance to really get into that side of things yet.
No PDF in the attachments.
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