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$TNX (10 Year Yields) Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.14.2016

Short term Elliott wave count suggests that pullback to 1.542 at 9/28 ended wave X. The rally from there looks to be unfolding as a 5 wave move and wave ((a)) is proposed complete at 1.801 . Wave (b) pull back is currently in progress to correct the cycle from 9/28 low (1.542) before the yields resume higher. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect to see buyers appearing in proposed wave (b) pull back in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 9/28 low (1.542) stays intact. Buying the 10 year yields is equivalent to selling 10 year notes ($ZN).

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$TNX (10 Year Yields) Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.17.2016
Short term Elliott wave count suggests that pullback to 1.542 at 9/28 ended wave X. The rally from there looks to be unfolding as a 5 wave move and wave ((a)) is proposed complete at 1.801 . Wave ((b)) pull back is currently in progress to correct the cycle from 9/28 low (1.542) before the yields resume higher. We dont like selling the proposed pullback and expect to see buyers appearing in proposed wave ((b)) pull back in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 9/28 low (1.542) stays intact. Buying the 10 year yields is equivalent to selling 10 year notes ($ZN).

EURAUD Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.18.2016
Best reading of Elliott wave cycles suggests EURAUD is in a triple three Elliott wave structure from 10/6 (1.4779) high. While below 1.4353 and more importantly below 1.4477 high, pair has scope to make another push lower towards 1.4222 – 1.4162 area and then bounce in minimum 3 waves to correct the cycle from 10/6 (1.4779) peak and most likely correct a larger ((w))-((x))-((y)) cycle from 9/15 (1.5096) peak as well. We don’t like chasing weakness at such a late stage in the cycles but once wave “W” is over, we expect the bounce to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swings and find sellers for another leg lower.

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

EURAUD Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.19.2016
Best reading of Elliott wave cycles suggests EURAUD is in a triple three Elliott wave structure from 10/6 (1.4779) high. Pair has got enough number of swings in place to call the cycle in wave W completed and soon a bounce would be expected to correct the cycle ideally from 9/15 (1.5096) peak and at least from 10/6 (1.4779) peak. Another low to 1.4162 – 1.4065 could still be seen within the cycle but we don’t like chasing weakness at such a late stage in the cycles but once wave “W” is over, we expect the bounce to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swings and find sellers for another leg lower in the pair.

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

$NZDUSD Elliott Waves forecasting the decline

At the begining of September 2016 $NZDUSD reached daily extreme area at 0.7389-0.7557 and our view was suggesting potential pull back in 3 waves against the January 20th low at least. The pair found sellers at the mentioned technical area and made top on September 7th ( 0.74882 peak) and since then it traded lower. In this technical blog were going to take a quick look at past h1 EWFs charts of NZDUSD, to see how we guide our members through this currency pair.
$NZDUSD Weekend Update 9.17.2016 Our Elliott wave chart suggested that pair is doing (X) blue recovery against the 0.74882 peak with potential to make double WXY red toward 50-61.8 fibs zone : 0.73549-0.7385 area, where sellers will be waiting for further decline.

If youre interested in the future path of $NZDUSD, you can find a new Elliott Wave analysis in the membership area of EWF. ( If not a member yet, all you have to do is to Sign Up for Free 14 Days Trial )

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$GBPNZD: Calling lower based on Elliott Wave Swing Sequence
In this technical blog we are going to take a quick look at $GBPNZD 4 hour chart from October 4th 2016. Pair from July 21 2016 peak was following a lager Elliott wave bearish cycle for ideal downside target area at 1.70, Also from September 1st 2016 peak (1.83559) pair was forming a lower lows and lower highs and was showing 5 swings down from 1.83559 peak. 5 is part of an impulsive sequence where as corrective sequence runs in 3, 7 or 11 swings. As the decline from 1.83559 was overlapping and hence not impulsive, it suggested the sequence was incomplete and called for bounces to fail below black ((x)) peak for another swing lower to complete seven swing sequence.
GBPNZD October 4, 2016 4 Hour chart

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$BAC Near Term 4 hour Elliott Wave Technical Analysis for Bank Of America
Bank of America Corporation $BAC of course is one of the larger market cap stocks in the financial banking sector listed on the NYSE . Most are aware the stock peaked in November 2006 and was sold off heavily during the financial crisis decline then the stock found a low in February of 2009. From that point in the longer term chart I’m not going to get into what the Elliott Wave count is or is not as there is a couple of likely probabilities however what I want to mention that is important from that 2009 low is an obvious bounce higher and then a dip in 2011 that held above the 2009 lows. This has been a weak longer term rally relative to some of the banking sector stocks however it does project an equal legs-1.236 extension target area higher at 22.25 to 26.35 while that December 2011 low remains intact. From there the rally stalled from getting back above the April 2010 highs however appears the dip that ended in February 2016 corrected that cycle up and the trend higher has resumed with a rally into April then a dip into what is shown in the 4 hour chart at the 6/27/2016 lows.
This chart shown below illustrates the two most likely nearer term buying areas presuming the stock sees a dip lower. In the first and most bullish scenario, while below the 10/17 highs at 16.35 a corrective dip from the 10/10 highs at 16.40 shows the equal legs-1.236 extension area at 15.55-15.36 with a possible 1.618 extension at 15.06. The dip should show it will remain above the 9/27 lows. Usually if an instrument gets into an extension area such as this it will show in the trend system we use here whether or not the price will either bounce from that area and fail to rally into new highs for another deeper corrective extension or proceed on toward new highs. This the reason I put the other lower extension area at the 14.90-13.97 region. If the stock shows it is going to break below the 9/27 lows or does then this is the projected area for a three swing corrective cycle lower from the 8/31 cycle highs. From that area it should remain bullish for the turn higher while the dip shows it is going to remain above the 6/27/2016 cycle lows.
Thanks for looking and coming to the website and if you like take a free trial subscription of our service and see if we can be of help in your trading. We cover 52 global instruments in 4 time frames from weekly, daily , 4 hour on down to the 1 hour time frame in stock indices futures, commodities futures, forex and bond yields. Kind regards & good luck trading. Lewis Jones of the elliottwave-forecast.com Team

EURAUD Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.21.2016

Best reading of Elliott wave cycles suggests EURAUD is in a triple three Elliott wave structure from 10/6 (1.4779) high and this cycle is proposed complete with wave W at 1.418. Pair is currently in wave X bounce to correct the cycle from 9/15 (1.5096) peak or at least from 10/6 (1.4779) peak before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce and once wave X bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing, we expect to find sellers again for a new low below wave W at 1.418 or at least a 3 waves pullback as far as pivot at 9/15 high (1.51) remains intact.

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At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

FTSE Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.25.2016

Best reading of Elliott wave cycles suggests rally to 7091.7 ended wave ((w)). The Index is currently in wave ((x)) pullback as a double three where wave (w) ended at 6892 and wave (x) ended at 7040. While bounces stay below 7040, and more importantly below 7091.7, expect more downside in wave (y) of ((x)) towards 6788 – 6836 area before Index turns higher. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear in the area above for at least a 3 waves bounce as far as pivot at 9/15 low (6635.9) remains intact in the first degree.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

CADCHF: Possible 7 Swing WXY Elliott Wave Correction + Bullish Patterns

Since April 22/2016 CADCHF seems to be in a Elliott Wave corrective pattern. A 7 swing WXY Elliott Wave pattern can be seen and we at EWF always encourage to buy or sell corrections on the swings 3, 7, 11. CADCHF made a bounce on the 7th swing September 27/2016 and has now dipped back to the 0.618% Fib. retracement of the September 27/2016 low. It is possible now that CADCHF can move higher from current levels. Bullish patterns, blue and red, have already retraced back to the minimum 0.50% Fib. retracement BUY triggers signalling for higher prices in the coming days and weeks. A break below September 27/2016 low will invalidate the bullish red pattern and the 7 swing Elliott Wave sequence. Any buying stops should be placed at the September 27/2016 low.

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Cocoa Futures: Technical Picture from 2011 low

Cocoa Futures (CC #F) has ended the cycle from all time low at 3775 (March 2011) and then it made a sharp decline into 12/12/2011 low at 1983. Since then, we have seen Cocoa futures rallying in 5 swings which is a bullish sequence. Advance from 12/12/2011 (1983) low to 12/8/2015 (3429) was an overlapping advance and hence not impulsive but 5 swings could be part of a diagonal structure or the cycle could have ended at 9/25/2014 (3399) and instrument could be doing an expanded FLAT (3-3-5) structure down from there with 12/8/2015 peak being wave B of the proposed FLAT. In either case, 5 is not a corrective sequence and hence 5 swings up from 12/12/2011 low means unless 5 swings are part of a FLAT correction, 12/8/2015 high should break before 12/12/2011 low breaks. As instrument has not yet reached the 100% extension from 12/8/2015 peak so we can expect bounces to fail for extension lower towards 254 2374 area and in extension 2106 and then Cocoa futures should find buyers and resume rally for new highs above 12/8/2015 peak or bounce in 3 waves at least as per Elliott wave hedging concept which means both buyers and sellers would agree in a 3 wave bounce at least in the mentioned area.

FTSE Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.26.2016

Best reading of Elliott wave cycles suggests rally to 7091.7 ended wave ((w)). The Index is currently in wave ((x)) pullback as a double three where wave (w) ended at 6892 and wave (x) ended at 7040. While bounces stay below 7040, and more importantly below 7091.7, expect more downside in wave (y) of ((x)) towards 6788 – 6836 area before Index turns higher. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear in the area above for at least a 3 waves bounce as far as pivot at 9/15 low (6635.9) remains intact in the first degree.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

$EURAUD forecasting the path & selling the rallies

On August 10th $EURAUD broke the previous low from April 21st @1.4425 , making the bearish cycle from the Febrtary peak still alive. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggested for at least another big swing lower below 1.44037 low, so we recommend our members to avoid buying the pair and keep selling the rallies against the 1.56456 peak. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at past Medium-term EURAUD charts presented to clients of www.elliottwave-forecast.com to see how we guided our members through the cycles and movements of this forex currency pair.
$EURAUD 08.24.2016 480 minute chart: Our view is bearish against the 1.5645 peak, however the pair has potential to make the double in wave (X) toward 50-61.8 fibs zone @ 1.50524-1.51903( blue box) before proposed big swing lower takes place. In short term we expect X pull back first...


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USDCAD: Buying the dips using the Elliott wave Theory

The Elliott wave theory was developed in the 1930s and in the theory, the main idea is that the market advances in five waves and corrects in three waves. Since 1930s, the world has changed a lot now we have computers and we can see multiple instruments and we can measure momentum and many other tools. When the theory was developed, we didnt have any of these tools and consequently it was developed just based on the charts of few instruments due to the inability of the time and the lack of worldwide economics. We at Elliottwave-Forecast have noticed the suggestive nature of the theory as it was developed and from years of experience, we have tried to incorporate new tools to support the basic rule of the theory we have added momentum reading, swing sequence, time, cycles, correlations and many more tools. In order to use and implement a better use of the theory we do understand that the time has changed and consequently, we are using Elliott wave as a language and applying all the original rules but with a lot of confirmation on top of the theory...



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FTSE Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.27.2016

Best reading of Elliott wave cycles suggests rally to 7091.7 ended wave ((w)). The Index is currently in wave ((x)) pullback as a double three where wave (w) ended at 6892 and wave (x) ended at 7040. While bounces stay below 7040, and more importantly below 7091.7, expect more downside in wave (y) of ((x)) towards 6788 – 6836 area before Index turns higher. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear in the area above for at least a 3 waves bounce as far as pivot at 9/15 low (6635.9) remains intact in the first degree.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

Deutsche Bank Short Term Recovery ( Technical Analysis )


A month ago, everyone went crazy about the crash in Deutsche Bank stock price after hitting record new lows calling for a ” Lehman Brother ” reply scenario meaning the bank filling for bankruptcy . However the DB stock price was at the technical area to end at least the cycle from 03/14/2016 peak and start a 3 waves bounce , this view was supported as the stock was trapped in a falling wedge with a bullish divergence . Since making a new low in 09/30 at 11.19 , the stock started a rally surprising many bearish traders blinded by media talk and this recovery could extend later on to correct the cycle from 04/07/2015 peak and reach 20.76 – 26.63 area in larger 3 swings from the lows .



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FTSE Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.28.2016

Best reading of Elliott wave cycles suggests rally to 7129.8 ended wave W. The Index is currently in wave X pullback as a double three where wave (w) ended at 6930 and wave (x) ended at 7067.34. While bounces stay below 7067.34, and more importantly below 7129.8, expect more downside in wave ((y)) of X towards 6820.26 – 6867.46 area before Index turns higher. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear in the area above for at least a 3 waves bounce as far as pivot at 9/15 low (6640.5) remains intact in the first degree.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

Daily Elliott Wave Analysis of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. $FCX

Freeport McMoran based in Arizona, USA is the largest copper and molybdenum producer in the world. In 2015 , 67% of revenues were from the sale of copper, 11% were from the sale of petroleum, 10% from the sale of gold, and 5% from the sale of molybdenum. Without doubt the company balance sheets have suffered in the commodity price declines since 2008 however assuming this trend lower is over as well as the financials get ironed out the company stock should eventually respond with higher prices as well... Read the full article here

FTSE Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis 11.1.2016

Best reading of Elliott wave cycles suggests rally to 7129.8 ended wave W. The Index is currently in wave X pullback as a double three where wave ((w)) ended at 6930 and wave ((x)) ended at 7067.34. While bounces stay below 7067.34, and more importantly below 7129.8, expect more downside in wave ((y)) of X towards 6821.1 – 6868.4 area before Index turns higher. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear in the area above for at least a 3 waves bounce as far as pivot at 9/15 low (6654.8) remains intact in the first degree.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At Elliottwave-Forecast, we offer 24 hour coverage of 52 instruments from Monday – Friday using Elliott Wave Theory as primary tools of analysis. We provide Elliott Wave chart in 4 different time frames, up to 4 times a day update in 1 hour chart, two live sessions by our expert analysts, 24 hour chat room moderated by our expert analysts, market overview, and much more! With our expert team at your side to provide you with all the timely and accurate analysis, you will never be left in the dark and you can concentrate more on the actual trading and making profits. Check out our 14 day Free Trial to sample everything we have to offer.

U.S. Presidential Election Cycle

Cycle, Trend, and Seasonality make up three components of price movement. There is also a fourth component which is noise. Noise is everything else that cant be explained by the other three components. Cycles can be complex and difficult to see because theres often a combination of large and smaller patterns, and cycles within cycles, all operating at the same time in different time frames. As an example, we can have bearish cycle is the short time frame, a bullish cycle in medium time frame, and a bearish cycle in the long time frame. The most important cycle is the long-term cycle or the dominant cycle. A simple way to begin the search for the major cycle is by looking at long-term chart, such as the weekly and daily chart.
There are several well known cycles, such as Business cycle (8.6 years), Kondratieff cycle (54 year cycle), and U.S. Presidential Election Cycle. As 2016 is a U.S. presidential election year, we will take a look at the historical stock return data for presidential election cycle. The table below shows the U.S. Presidential Election cycle from 1912 1992 based on the percentage return of the DJIA

The findings suggest the year preceding the election (year 3 in the presidents term) posts the strongest gain for the market, followed by a decent return in election year. Stock market action during the election year is always more erratic, as parties fight over each other. The two years after election show subpar returns as the reality of politics comes through and implementation by the new administration turn out unpopular.
The more recent research of the presidential election cycle also confirms the findings above as the table below shows the S&P futures return during the U.S. Presidential election cycle from 1983 to 2010

Source: Perry J. Kauffman, Trading Systems and Methods
The more recent presidential election suggests moderately good returns in the pre-election year, and great returns in the election year as all nominees promise great things to get elected. Then in the first year of the office, reality returns as the new president attempts to fulfill campaign promises but use the opportunity to do unpopular reforms.
The chart below summarizes average annual stock market gain in 4 year presidential cycle from 1833 2013

If the statistics above hold true for this year, then regardless whos winning, whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, 2017 likely shows below average return or even negative return in the stock market.
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