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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #56,201
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:02am Oct 17, 2016 6:02am
@CookieMonsta - thank you for your reply, I do understand what you are saying, and will continue reading.
From your export info table - so China likes string USD and weak EUR for their balance sheet to look nice, am I close to the truth here?

@RelaxRay - I understand that there is no holy grail, just a hard work (and a lot of attacks and rescues) that trading is all about. I know FTI is trying to remotely teach us the way he was teaching new traders in the bank.
No, I never watched the show "romance of the 3 kingdom", will google and see if anything is available online.

@Alex - I do watch charts already, setup like FTI does it - naked and 3 windows for each pair (D, H1 and M5). I can clearly see the corelationships, will be watching them more, thanks for your reply!

Happy trading to everybody! and back to reading for me
Cheers!
  • #56,202
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:10am Oct 17, 2016 6:10am
Quoting agent005
@CookieMonsta - thank you for your reply, I do understand what you are saying, and will continue reading. From your export info table - so China likes string USD and weak EUR for their balance sheet to look nice, am I close to the truth here? @RelaxRay - I understand that there is no holy grail, just a hard work (and a lot of attacks and rescues) that trading is all about. I know FTI is trying to remotely teach us the way he was teaching new traders in the bank. No, I never watched the show "romance of the 3 kingdom", will google and see if anything...
No probs.

Focus on m5 ie the now chart.... after study of higher time frames especially H1/D1. I have 2 screens with charts on both inc eurjpy/gbpjpy/eurgbp/usdcad/ and I arrange them with gbp together/ eur together etc etc - how I like it at mo' so I get a feel for what eur/gbp/dollar/jpy are doing sort of and I can tell where the action is at the moment.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,203
  • Edited 6:37am Oct 17, 2016 6:16am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting agent005
@CookieMonsta - thank you for your reply, I do understand what you are saying, and will continue reading. From your export info table - so China likes string USD and weak EUR for their balance sheet to look nice, am I close to the truth here? @RelaxRay - I understand that there is no holy grail, just a hard work (and a lot of attacks and rescues) that trading is all about. I know FTI is trying to remotely teach us the way he was teaching new traders in the bank. No, I never watched the show "romance of the 3 kingdom", will google and see if anything...
well, you dont have to go too deep because there is no way to get exact info of such things unless you are in privileged positions.

mainly that when news comes out for china, audusd will move alot more than eurusd, the volatility will begin to show more on audusd compares to eurusd, and that shows us the driver for audusd should be china fundamentals for that week, but this does not preclude other factors, so still gotta be nimble to see if counter impulse comes in because of other correlations sudden moves.

sometimes there is hidden strength in a general weak market. sometimes there is hidden weakness in a general strong market. understanding ro3k allows you to sense the tearing, sometimes before it happens. because there is no smoke without fire, people vested in the pair, their actions show through the ro3k, the numbers are probably not important compared to what they actually do, i. e. impulse.

1 way to use ro3k and news, is to enter market after these news, the news probes market position, you can enter a strong scout after after market flush people out with the news. The news like red China data on forex factory calendar should flow into audusd and you can use another country's news to see where the weak/strong points are.
  • #56,204
  • Edited 11:47pm Oct 17, 2016 11:07pm | Edited 11:47pm
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Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,205
  • Oct 18, 2016 8:57am Oct 18, 2016 8:57am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} No probs. Focus on m5 ie the now chart.... after study of higher time frames especially H1/D1. I have 2 screens with charts on both inc eurjpy/gbpjpy/eurgbp/usdcad/ and I arrange them with gbp together/ eur together etc etc - how I like it at mo' so I get a feel for what eur/gbp/dollar/jpy are doing sort of and I can tell where the action is at the moment. Alex
Thank you Alex, will focus on M5 and look at all pairs at once.

Best regards!
  • #56,206
  • Oct 18, 2016 9:00am Oct 18, 2016 9:00am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} well, you dont have to go too deep because there is no way to get exact info of such things unless you are in privileged positions. mainly that when news comes out for china, audusd will move alot more than eurusd, the volatility will begin to show more on audusd compares to eurusd, and that shows us the driver for audusd should be china fundamentals for that week, but this does not preclude other factors, so still gotta be nimble to see if counter impulse comes in because of other correlations sudden moves. sometimes there is hidden strength...
Thank you CookieMonsta for your insights! I'll be digging into ro3k next!

Happy trading!
  • #56,207
  • Oct 18, 2016 9:02am Oct 18, 2016 9:02am
Quoting RelaxRay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXL65Nd_O1o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4RjJKxsamQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgzGwKwLmgM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X_2IdybTV0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClQcUyhoxTg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTQbiNvZqaY
Hi RelaxRay, my current trading music is
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I think I need to start switching to something calmer thou, like wind of change
  • #56,208
  • Oct 18, 2016 9:13am Oct 18, 2016 9:13am
Hi all, miss me already?
@FTI and all, sorry for taking over the thread, I'll calm down shortly, that's all the music to blame (see post above )

Anyway, I wanted to ask one more question to fti and everybody who is trading similar style.
So here it is - How often do you guys have to go into rescue mode to save your scout? Like % of all trades.
How often does it take a while - 2, 3 or more times that you need to commit more troops until you are able to complete a successful rescue?
How many pips - 50 or 100 or 200 pips down you willing to go until you abandon the idea?
I know it's not exactly pip count one should be looking at but % of ATR of the move. I also understand that with enough capitalization as long as you are on daily trend and no unexpected news released - you should be able to complete a successful rescue, it's just a pain threshold and available funds that you need to watch after.

Anybody has any stats from their trading that they can share?

Thanks in advance and happy trading!
  • #56,209
  • Oct 18, 2016 1:50pm Oct 18, 2016 1:50pm
Hi agent005

For starters I think you may have missed the part where fti states that scouts are expendable, so not all should be recovered nor should all trades, using the scouts correctly will often save you from making bigger mistakes.

I find recovery for me tends to come in waves, usually means I have a problem and should look at myself and how/why/what I am trading closer, maybe have a short break?, rescue does not have to be solely done within the pair you are trading, if you have a few pairs that you are trading or make profits while trading other pairs (while waiting for a recovery opportunity) you can offset the profit for some/all of the loss trade to book an overall profit or breakeven, it is your account that you should be trading not your ego to beat any individual pair or particular battle, what matters is best outcome for your account not what you want to do in the market/battle to always win and rub your own ego. if you prepare to survive then profits will come when ready.

most of my recoveries (though they are all just another trade/battle to me) are very quick (within a few to 50pips) others take a while, I have practiced recovery to about 1500pips and I am efficient to recover to about 1000pips, I have as you can see over practised the recovery for good reason if you look at what you could possibly get caught in now and again, I rarely now have to recover entries over a few hundred pips, if it does happen I am prepared but i do have the respect to know a giant wave could still engulf me at any time (have seen a few happen now but luckily managed to avoid so far). Another good idea is to recover the trade in smaller sizes by doing a few recoveries to complete the task, there are many options/strategies open to you in trading.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #56,210
  • Edited 8:20am Oct 19, 2016 4:45am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting agent005
Hi all, miss me already? @FTI and all, sorry for taking over the thread, I'll calm down shortly, that's all the music to blame (see post above ) Anyway, I wanted to ask one more question to fti and everybody who is trading similar style. So here it is - How often do you guys have to go into rescue mode to save your scout? Like % of all trades. How often does it take a while - 2, 3 or more times that you need to commit more troops until you are able to complete a successful rescue? How many pips - 50...
Your thinking is very rigid. There are lots of things one can do - what is rescue? Is it flip/cut/add more in same direction/is it cut + get back in later/offset other trades? Lots to save book. I have no stats. to share. I think too much focus is on rescue - not enough on attacking in thread - just my thoughts - cannot attack how can rescue book. We need to make money on attacks VIP. Use scouts VIP... Just demo lots and lots and learn what will work for you - what someone else does. does not mean you will see it same way. Let go demo and learn how you can fly your body. We all fly different - just try not to be a duck too often.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,211
  • Oct 19, 2016 8:48am Oct 19, 2016 8:48am
Quoting phil13
Hi agent005 For starters I think you may have missed the part where fti states that scouts are expendable, so not all should be recovered nor should all trades, using the scouts correctly will often save you from making bigger mistakes. I find recovery for me tends to come in waves, usually means I have a problem and should look at myself and how/why/what I am trading closer, maybe have a short break?, rescue does not have to be solely done within the pair you are trading, if you have a few pairs that you are trading or make profits while trading...
wow, you have balls of steel, Phil, just like FTI... holding position of 1500pips down, oh man
Thanks for the insight, I wasn't sure my understanding was correct as my impression was:
1. You always have to have a scout out (to eliminate lost opportunity thingy)
2. You always have to rescue the scout (I understood it as having to perform rescue on the same pair to get total combined profit at $0 or above).

Now I see I was wrong, much appreciate your help!
  • #56,212
  • Edited 9:16am Oct 19, 2016 8:51am | Edited 9:16am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Your thinking is very rigid. There are lots of things one can do - what is rescue? Is it flip/cut/add more in same direction/is it cut + get back in later/offset other trades? Lots to save book. I have no stats. to share. I think too much focus is on rescue - not enough on attacking in thread - just my thoughts - cannot attack how can rescue book. We need to make money on attacks VIP. Use scouts VIP... Just demo lots and lots and learn what will work for you - what someone else does. does not mean you will see it same way. Let go demo and...
Hi Alex, thank you for your reply. I understand now that saving a scout is not as important as saving the book.
You never know if you scout stepped on land mine and lost his foot or dead already, so the idea of must-rescue didn't sounds too appealing to me.
I understand it's not in the best interest of the General to abandon his troops as it would cause moral to go down really fast, but I feel it's a bit different in trading.

I even started to re-read AOW to see if there any mention of winning a battle vs winning a war, could not find any reference there so far.

Will be doing some dancing in demo, no need for live trading as I feel I can manage to treat demo more seriously that I did last time around.

Cheers and happy trading!
  • #56,213
  • Oct 19, 2016 8:55am Oct 19, 2016 8:55am
Quoting agent005
{quote} Hi Alex, thank you for your reply. I understand now that saving a scout is not as important as saving the book. You never know if you scout stepped on land mine and lost his foot or dead already, so the idea of must-rescue didn't sounds too appealing to me. I understand it's not in the best interest of the General to abandon his troops as it would cause moral to go down really fast, but I feel it's a bit different in trading. Will be doing some dancing in demo, no need for live trading as I feel I can manage to treat demo more seriously...
Go for it ... and ask questions based on your trades if required......FTI wants us to flow with it I think just like learning to skydive and fly your own body.....takes lots of planning too. so really think about it - where are the ducks how is price reacting at those levels and learn the moves and traps - where could you rescue if required and how - when is your plan busted and what to do about it.

It is deadly serious business so stay calm and relaxed.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,214
  • Oct 19, 2016 9:49am Oct 19, 2016 9:49am
Quoting agent005
{quote} wow, you have balls of steel, Phil, just like FTI... holding position of 1500pips down, oh man Thanks for the insight, I wasn't sure my understanding was correct as my impression was: 1. You always have to have a scout out (to eliminate lost opportunity thingy) 2. You always have to rescue the scout (I understood it as having to perform rescue on the same pair to get total combined profit at $0 or above). Now I see I was wrong, much appreciate your help!

Hi agent005

It is not that I have balls of steel, I do not I would much rather an easy and boring fight/battle, it is just out of necessity to learn how to survive that I practiced for a long time how to recover from such a depth. AOW ….the death ground thing.

Scouts are there to tell you if you are possibly correct in the direction of your trade, they should enhance your ‘feel’ for the current market conditions, if you put them in and market goes against you do not fool yourself anymore that you are going to win that fight, do what is needed and move on. The smaller your scouts are to your attack force the less damage they do if and when you have to kill them, this is one reason why the correct capitalisation and money management is very import.

If you really sit and think about making your account survive by any means then you will see many options and strategies open to you, practice them in demo again and again until they are embedded within you, learn to survive first and foremost, dead accounts are no good to anyone.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #56,215
  • Edited 10:17pm Oct 19, 2016 9:05pm | Edited 10:17pm
Quoting agent005
{quote} Hi RelaxRay, my current trading music is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UbTddtskVQ I think I need to start switching to something calmer thou, like wind of change
Hi Agent

Its good, I listen to metal too. My all time favourite band is Freedom Call. And I listen to them alot.
Music, also reflects our mood and, trading terrain IMO, hence I love songs with a positive message and/or a nice rhythm.

About the scout size, IMO it must be small enough to tank the same amount of pips that Phil have mentioned, but also provide small change and ammunition for when it goes our way.
Remember, the battle is alive, and no two battle are the same, similar maybe, but same never. Hence, IMO we must always look at it with an open, relax mind. Never be rigid and impose our opinion onto her. Be patient, and yet be swift.

To be honest, words doesnt help understanding the MO and MM much, you need to demo it, and get alot of screen time. Remember that this is what FTI trains and used in dealing rooms where in there, they are constantly on screen, even though they may not be in the market, but they are there. Hence, screen time screen time screen time.
Relaxed vigilance.

Here, read this, http://www.lifehack.org/383170/zansh...i-archer?dgs=1
Very very good article, book was also mention in thread somewhere.

FTI mentions, trading is 2nd nature, like breathing, eating, sleeping..... among others, hence, "do it" rather then "think it"

Hope that helps.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,216
  • Oct 20, 2016 1:34am Oct 20, 2016 1:34am
Quoting agent005
{quote} Hi Alex, thank you for your reply. I understand now that saving a scout is not as important as saving the book. You never know if you scout stepped on land mine and lost his foot or dead already, so the idea of must-rescue didn't sounds too appealing to me. I understand it's not in the best interest of the General to abandon his troops as it would cause moral to go down really fast, but I feel it's a bit different in trading. I even started to re-read AOW to see if there any mention of winning a battle vs winning a war, could not find any...

One other thing... search the thread for rescue and read FTI's comments on it..... make sure you understand everything... if not ask questions. I didn't understand it not really and took a while and a little help from some peeps but mostly more experience.

Phil tested rescue to destruction to learn what a serious business it is........it can kill.......does not mean he does it always.....you could try that in demo. I had s strategy whereby if I was wrong I always had to rescue in some way in demo to learn. It can snowball out of control so you need to plan it and manage it well....

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,217
  • Oct 20, 2016 2:55am Oct 20, 2016 2:55am
ahhhh beautiful. whats happening on thread.
{hugs}

just needed show face, to make sure my friends knows I am still breathing.

anyway i have been thinking about the gardener lately.
  • #56,218
  • Oct 20, 2016 3:03am Oct 20, 2016 3:03am
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Poem written by the Last Emperor of Tang Dynasty while in captivity of by Sung Dynasty
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visited in dream. May he rest in peace.

Is so difficult be emperor moth, worst than be ceo.
Need find way feed anyone who comes near. inclusive pets and flings. eeeeer family.
It ain't easy.


regards
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  • #56,219
  • Edited 3:28am Oct 20, 2016 3:15am | Edited 3:28am
Quoting fti
ahhhh beautiful. whats happening on thread. {hugs} just needed show face, to make sure my friends knows I am still breathing. anyway i have been thinking about the gardener lately.
Yes was bit worried.. but did not want to disturb you to actions here.............

Can I ask why you emphasise feel so much......I could trade with d1/h1 + trend or pattern + m5 - so long as I know what a trend is I can match it all up and if I attack well I would make pips mostly and if I have a reasonable grasp of MM. But you emphasise feel... so you do not want us to do that so rigidly.......we are humans......


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,220
  • Edited 4:34am Oct 20, 2016 3:37am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yes was bit worried.. but did not want to disturb you to actions here............. Can I ask why you emphasise feel so much......I could trade with d1/h1 + trend or pattern + m5 - so long as I know what a trend is I can match it all up and if I attack well I would make pips mostly and if I have a reasonable grasp of MM. But you emphasise feel... so you do not want us to do that so rigidly.......we are humans...... Alex
because feel is human's greatest motivator of actions.
A hungry person behave different from one who is not.
Different disiree pitch. Pain is also strongest motivators.
also because its the highest intelligence a human can master.
Some how we are more cunning when hungry. When we cannot feel , we becomes stupid?

hahahaha talk about hungry.
hahahaha pls excuse, kitchen raiding party. i need go kitchen loong fu tou.(green dragon yellow tiger battle)hahahahahahahaha
{hug}
regards

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