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The ART of trading by Petar_Serbia

  • #2,421
  • Oct 6, 2016 11:28am Oct 6, 2016 11:28am
Hello everyone,
Good news for you. I opened my skype trading room and you are all welcome to join >

https://join.skype.com/auroPy6h9Chz

Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,422
  • Oct 6, 2016 7:28pm Oct 6, 2016 7:28pm
Strong drop and potential mark down on GBP/USD. As I alerted, GBP is so weak fundamentaly and it resulted with strong drop and the price respected FE 61.8%.
Anyway, clearly strength happend and demand came in. Will watch for changing in trend dynamic in next period for potential buying positions. Selling looks very risky at this point but for buying is still too early. I am in waiting mode on GBP/USD.

ON futures chart also massive climax and bar closed in the middle.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: преузимање (1).png Size: 46 KB
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,423
  • Oct 7, 2016 4:13am Oct 7, 2016 4:13am
yes Market expressed its worries about GB economy and its future by dropping GBP 700pips or so ...Analyst of all kind clearly saw it and especially was interesting that well informed fundamental analysts and market makers interpreted angry threatening statement of Hollande on such way to ensure market , GB and other countries in EU clearly understand consequences of divorce...

most retail traders did not have even clue that Hollande's speech is coming and how it will be interpreted...
  • #2,424
  • Oct 7, 2016 7:22am Oct 7, 2016 7:22am
Quoting ruma29
yes Market expressed its worries about GB economy and its future by dropping GBP 700pips or so ...Analyst of all kind clearly saw it and especially was interesting that well informed fundamental analysts and market makers interpreted angry threatening statement of Hollande on such way to ensure market , GB and other countries in EU clearly understand consequences of divorce... most retail traders did not have even clue that Hollande's speech is coming and how it will be interpreted...
Yes. Acctually I knew about that speach since i am using livesquawk service. THere you got everrytning. Anyway, I got pending sell stop today ahead of NOnFarm. I got sell stop at the prrice of 1.1115 with SL around 110 pips and TP opened. I found descending triangle potential and its worth to try with 1% risk. Pending order will be valid only for today.

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily07.png Size: 60 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,425
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:47am Oct 7, 2016 8:47am
Sold EUR/USD at 1.1191. Smart money marked UP EUR/USD in my opinion and we may expect selling, especialy when the sellers came in from strong POC in the background >
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,426
  • Oct 7, 2016 10:45am Oct 7, 2016 10:45am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Sold EUR/USD at 1.1191. Smart money marked UP EUR/USD in my opinion and we may expect selling, especialy when the sellers came in from strong POC in the background > {image}

Secured on BE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30secured.png Size: 217 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,427
  • Edited 9:15am Oct 10, 2016 8:28am | Edited 9:15am
Hello everyone,
I got few emails about current situation on GBP/USD and my positioning so I wanted to post my analysis here. I am bearish on GBP/USD from 1.2385 and will explain reasons >

I will start with major thing you probably heard XXX times. What is the current short term trend on GBP/USD ?
Answer is downward. As the Wyckoff said many times, always try to trade in sync of genenral trend. Dont fight trend and dont try to "outsmart" market.

Lets go to second key point >
I opened GBP/USD futures chart and saw interesting volume analysis there. Massive drop on GBP/USD on Friday was on 19.6K volume. IF you check the demand which came after. I found demand bars on 25.16K and 20.94K. Hmmm, what is this telling us. There is much stronger activity on demand but notice the PRICE ACTION on those bars > Very weak price action. This represent high effort with weak result = Sign of weakness

Third key point > I found obvious weakness and strong downward trend in place but where to sell ?
I opened profile template to find Friday point of control which will be strong resistance. Interesting, I found POC at the price of 1.2430. Price respected POC and I sold. I dont think that I will find better entry on GBP/USD then this area.

Now, about SL and objective points. SL best placement is above reaction swing at 1.2480 (very safe). Objective points, obvious at swing lows at 1.2230 and 1.2050.


Fundamental reason > Brexit

That is my view on GBP/USD and my position. In case that price hit my SL, I would look for buying.


Video >
Inserted Video


Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: преузимање (1).png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM3010.png Size: 49 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,428
  • Oct 11, 2016 11:01am Oct 11, 2016 11:01am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello everyone, I got few emails about current situation on GBP/USD and my positioning so I wanted to post my analysis here. I am bearish on GBP/USD from 1.2385 and will explain reasons > I will start with major thing you probably heard XXX times. What is the current short term trend on GBP/USD ? Answer is downward. As the Wyckoff said many times, always try to trade in sync of genenral trend. Dont fight trend and dont try to "outsmart" market. Lets go to second key point > I opened GBP/USD futures chart and saw interesting volume analysis there....
GBP/USD doing like I expected So far, +175 pips and setup secured. Target is set at the rpice of 1.2050.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30nice.png Size: 50 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,429
  • Oct 11, 2016 7:57pm Oct 11, 2016 7:57pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} GBP/USD doing like I expected So far, +175 pips and setup secured. Target is set at the rpice of 1.2050. {image}
Closed position on Fibonacci expansion 61.8% and took +270 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30now.png Size: 45 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,430
  • Oct 11, 2016 8:44pm Oct 11, 2016 8:44pm
Hello traders,
I wanted to post my new trading idea on USD/JPY. I am bullish from 103.55. Will explain reasons >

1. Trend >

Short term trend is bullish on USD/JPY which means I will only looking for buying positions.

2. Volume price action analysis >

I opened my futures JPY/USD (futures got inverted symbol for JPY) chart and found climatic action. According to the 30M time frame, I found climax at the 32K volume (largest volume in past 2 months). The very next day showed the lack of demand and much weaker demand, which is clear sign of weakness. Even the second day after the climatic action, I found lack of demand on the futures symbol JPY/USD. Seems that smart money marked UP JPY/USD so they can reload positions later.

3. I opened my profile chart and found strong point of control zone on the drop day on USD/JPY. Buying near this zone looks like a good idea with SL below the swing low at 102.75. Target is opened but I will look to close near 106.80.


Fundamental for JPY most recent >

12/10/16 01:51 BST // BOJ'S KURODA SAYS THE BANK WILL EASE FURTHER IF NEEDED & BENEFITS OUTWEIGH COSTS
- Will continue with direction of 80tln yen of JGB purchases
- Buying JGBs and imposing negative rates are in order to realise the appropriate yield curve
- Amount of JGB purchases varies every year

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: преузимање (3).png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM30profile.png Size: 92 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,431
  • Oct 12, 2016 11:37am Oct 12, 2016 11:37am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, I wanted to post my new trading idea on USD/JPY. I am bullish from 103.55. Will explain reasons > 1. Trend > Short term trend is bullish on USD/JPY which means I will only looking for buying positions. 2. Volume price action analysis > I opened my futures JPY/USD (futures got inverted symbol for JPY) chart and found climatic action. According to the 30M time frame, I found climax at the 32K volume (largest volume in past 2 months). The very next day showed the lack of demand and much weaker demand, which is clear sign of weakness....
Good progress so far on USD/JPY and current plus 80 pips. Target is set at the price of 106.80. FOMC meeting minutes incoming
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,432
  • Oct 12, 2016 6:26pm Oct 12, 2016 6:26pm
Hello everyone,
I am bullish on USD/CAD from the price 1.3240. I am aming for 400 pips or more on this one and risking about 90 pips. Will explain reasons >

Trend ?
The short term trend on USD/CAD is bullish and price is trading above 20,50,100 SMA and creating higher lows and higher highs. I am looking only for buying in this situation.

Volume price action analysis and intermarket coleration >

I found mark up on the CAD/USD futures chart and also on Oil futures chart. Actually, smart money marked up 2 times CAD/USD before resuming downward. This is indication of CAD weakness and potential rise on USD/CAD. They marked up CAD/USD on the 19.3K volume which is the largets volume in past few months.

Profile analysis >
Found point of control in past few days near the level of 1.3225, very good place for establishing bullish position.

Fundamental picture >
I dont expect any bigger demand on Oil until next OPEC meeting, which also confirms that price action and volume analaysis.

Best Regards.
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: преузимање (5).png Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM30profile.png Size: 119 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: oil.png Size: 54 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,433
  • Oct 17, 2016 8:22am Oct 17, 2016 8:22am
Hello everyone,
I found another good potential entry on USD/CAD near 1.3135. Reasons >

1. Trend ?
Short term trend is bullish on USD/CAD and I am looking only for buying opportunties.

2. Volume price action analysis ?
I found climax UP on CAD/USD futures market and decreasing volume on testing, which is good sign of CAD weakness. There is also broken channel in the background.

3. Market profile analysis >
Price rejected from strong POC at 1.3100 also round number.

Intermarket analysis > Oil is forming potential double top and I dont see any larger strength until next OPEC meeting >

Best regards,
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM30now.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: преузимање (2).png Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM30POC.png Size: 181 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,434
  • Oct 17, 2016 10:10am Oct 17, 2016 10:10am
Petar,

You rock ! I got to know you from Malcolmb's vsa thread. I like your style of trading, which combines VSA with trendline, trend channels, etc..
  • #2,435
  • Oct 18, 2016 4:12am Oct 18, 2016 4:12am
Quoting pooh123
Petar, You rock ! I got to know you from Malcolmb's vsa thread. I like your style of trading, which combines VSA with trendline, trend channels, etc..
Thank you very much pooh123,
Hope that you will enjoy in this thread. Also, feel free to post your view using volume analysis and on that way we can have good dicsussion here.

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,436
  • Oct 18, 2016 6:30am Oct 18, 2016 6:30am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello everyone, I found another good potential entry on USD/CAD near 1.3135. Reasons > 1. Trend ? Short term trend is bullish on USD/CAD and I am looking only for buying opportunties. 2. Volume price action analysis ? I found climax UP on CAD/USD futures market and decreasing volume on testing, which is good sign of CAD weakness. There is also broken channel in the background. 3. Market profile analysis > Price rejected from strong POC at 1.3100 also round number. Intermarket analysis > Oil is forming potential double top and I dont see any larger...
I did closed USD/CAD in SL. Cuting position early when you are wrong is best thing in this business. Anyway, I found very interesting volume analysis and potential buying on USD/JPY. I am bullish from 103.85 with TP around 107.00. Lets see the reasons >

1. Near term trend ?
Near term trend is bullish on USD/JPY.

2. Volume price action analysis >
I found climax and mark up on JPY/USD futures chart on 80K volume. After the mark up, I found absorption, which is sign for me that smart money used mark up to unload their holdings. Remember, weakness when it appears, it appears on up bars.

3. Market profile analysis ?
Strong yesterday's POC area around the price of 103.80.

Fundamental >
Big headlines on bloomberg > Yen Holds Three-Week Decline as Hedge Funds Reduce Bullish Bets. Obviously my analysis and current fundamental sentiment are on the same page (I like it ). Also, As an oil importer, Japan sees the rise in crude prices as negative for its currency.

Hope you like analysis, if you like , free free to commen

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH418.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: преузимање (7).png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM3018.png Size: 195 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,437
  • Oct 18, 2016 8:59am Oct 18, 2016 8:59am
Created video only for you guys

Inserted Video


Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,438
  • Oct 18, 2016 10:10pm Oct 18, 2016 10:10pm
I am new to this thread. How much of your decision making is based on fundamental analysis?
  • #2,439
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:41am Oct 19, 2016 4:41am
Petar,
You talk a lot about supply & demand, yet you went long Usd/Jpy on a supply area with price being 20 pips away from your sl now & with a strong sell momentum.

What's the reason for that long position?
  • #2,440
  • Oct 19, 2016 6:45am Oct 19, 2016 6:45am
Quoting jchiogna1
I am new to this thread. How much of your decision making is based on fundamental analysis?
Welcome to the thread jchiogna1,
When I am building position, I take in consiridation as much informations as I can get. Sometimes it is 80% fundamental and 20% is technical, sometimes is much less fundamental and more intermarket analysis. It depends of situation and market conditition.

Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
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