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What Holy Grail really means in Forex?(Need experienced traders comment)

  • #1
  • First Post: May 30, 2012 10:22am May 30, 2012 10:22am
Hi,

I know we keep saying there is no such thing as holy grail in trading. But what does holy grail really means?

Let's put money management and psychology aside first.

Let's say I am searching for a system that having 60%-65% accuracy after backtested if for around 300-500 trades or maybe 1000 trades, assuming 1:1 risk and reward ratio. The system should be 100% mechanical rules or at least very little discreet involve. With these conditions for a system that I am searching, am I searching for holy grail?

Comment and advice from experienced traders are much appreciated.

Anyremote
  • #2
  • May 30, 2012 12:58pm May 30, 2012 12:58pm
anyremote: The holy grail expression has become a cliche actually, it certainly depends on what you think it is for yourself, more often than not traders say you should not look for such "holy grail" in the understanding that you can not consistently achieve a 100% winning trades and no losing ones, but there are as many different opinions as heads in the world, worry not then for what the expression means...

I believe you are right on your path to look for a profitable trading methodology, although achieving more than 60 % is cerainly difficult and requires lots of skill and screen time more than back testing, I also believe there is not truly any full mechanical system, and no matter how strict your rules are, experience will teach you when your trading signals are not ok to follow (or Ok to be overrided).

In short: I don't think you are looking for a holy grail but you will need to conform with less of what you describe at least for the beginning learning curve, So yes, it is possible but I think you won't be able to get rid of the discretion part of the decision making process.

I write about the method I use in my webpage with tons of examples in case you are interested, it gets around a 1:1 risk reward ratio and with practice I believe you could get around 70 % winning trades, of course it will be up to you, just go to my profile.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V1xq62kV-S...+01+eurusd.gif
  • #3
  • May 30, 2012 2:57pm May 30, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting anyremote
Hi,

I know we keep saying there is no such thing as holy grail in trading. But what does holy grail really means?

Let's put money management and psychology aside first.

Let's say I am searching for a system that having 60%-65% accuracy after backtested if for around 300-500 trades or maybe 1000 trades, assuming 1:1 risk and reward ratio. The system should be 100% mechanical rules or at least very little discreet involve. With these conditions for a system that I am searching, am I searching for holy grail?

Comment and advice from experienced...
This market is so complex and has so many participants that (IMO) trying to look for a mechanical system that has proven to work is useless. Us retail traders that can't wrap our heads around this are at a huge disadvantage. There are large traders that know about how to trigger your system to trade and WILL take advantage of your 'system'. If you don't know why you're supplying the market with liquidity, then you're giving it to someone who does and who will take advantage of it.

You are searching for a holy grail. We all were. Toss anything mechanical out and trade the market based on order flow (buy when others are abt to buy, sell when others are abt to sell).
  • #4
  • May 30, 2012 11:07pm May 30, 2012 11:07pm
The term is relative but if you ask any newbie about this, pat would come the answer " an automated system that will execute trades on my behalf with 0% loss"..
  • #5
  • May 31, 2012 1:02am May 31, 2012 1:02am
Holy Grail in forex is a really big forex secret! everybody searchs for it but no one can find(
  • #6
  • May 31, 2012 3:12am May 31, 2012 3:12am
I had it but I put it down somewhere and now I can't find it.

Start your search by learning how to trade rather than how to try and accurately predict the unreliably unpredictable.

↓
  • #7
  • May 31, 2012 4:21am May 31, 2012 4:21am
Here you are.

http://www.virginmedia.com/images/1i...holy-grail.jpg

My 'grail' was understanding how the market moves and having an idea where its most likely to change direction.
  • #8
  • Edited 8:26am May 31, 2012 7:27am | Edited 8:26am
Hi all,

Thanks for all the replies. All your reply are really appreciated.

Quoting Eric D

In short: I don't think you are looking for a holy grail but you will need to conform with less of what you describe at least for the beginning learning curve, So yes, it is possible but I think you won't be able to get rid of the discretion part of the decision making process.
I do aware that totally get rid of the discretion part is not really possible. If not, EA won't fail big time.

I won't consider myself as newbies but not really profitable traders as well. That's why I try to find a system that is less dependable on discretion because I don't really trust my experience or intuition yet.


Quoting EmeraldEyes

Toss anything mechanical out and trade the market based on order flow (buy when others are abt to buy, sell when others are abt to sell).
I did tried before. Easy to say but difficult to do. How would I know the order flow? How would I know the flow is ending or will still continue? Just because last couple of data shows the trend is up, how would I know it will continue after i put my buy order? The answer I believe would be - I wouldn't know. That is one of the discretion part that no matter how many times I bang my head on the wall, I still couldn't figure it out.

Quoting pipmutt

Start your search by learning how to trade rather than how to try and accurately predict the unreliably unpredictable.
I might not sound like I do when I started this thread but believe me, I do want to learn how to trade. But I need to start somewhere, right? That's why I am finding a reliable system that I can play with and learn from there.

Where did you started to learn how to trade? I mean, based on your experience now, where would you define yourself previously as the point that you think you already correctly learning how to trade? The point where you know you were at the correct road. What did you do at that point that makes you think you learning how to trade correctly? You traded using purely intuition at that time and adjust from there? Or you traded purely support & resistance and adjust from there? Or what did you do?

Comment and advice from experience traders are much appreciated.
  • #9
  • May 31, 2012 9:40am May 31, 2012 9:40am
Quoting anyremote

But I need to start somewhere, right? That's why I am finding a reliable system that I can play with and learn from there.
You're looking for something to wear before you've even been invited to the party.

Learn to trade, learn the concept of 'trading', then you can play with systems, strategies, indicators, and methods. They're all 10'a'penny and most of them can be overall profitable, but first you've got to learn how to put them to good use. A good trader can profit from even a mediocre strategy, a bad trader can lose their shirt even with a first class strategy!


Quoting anyremote

Or what did you do?
As above, that was my turning point.
  • #10
  • May 31, 2012 12:09pm May 31, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting anyremote
Hi all,

...

I do aware that totally get rid of the discretion part is not really possible. If not, EA won't fail big time.

I won't consider myself as newbies but not really profitable traders as well. That's why I try to find a system that is less dependable on discretion because I don't really trust my experience or intuition yet.

...
Agreed, I found my self in a very similar situation after a couple of years of being trading... it gets frustrating and you feel there is no way you can get on by yourself, I bought several courses and books from companies and mentors in Canada, the US and London and I thought I was left with nothing...

What I did not realize is that none of them was wrong, they all taught me one lesson or two and knowledge added to experience, I was not seeing that I needed that learning time (yes years) and practice copious amounts of systems, strategies, methods varying from purely mechanical to purely discretional and little by little I started to "watch and listen" what the market was telling me.

I could not trade the methods the way my mentors told me to do, not a single one of them, there is no way to pass the experience and "feeling" or discretion that makes a methodology succesful (at least that is what I firmly believe), you can still look for one you like, you will find thousands or millions of such "systems" and add your experience to it, mix it with hundreds of screen time hours of practice and you will sooner or later "get it right", I feel there is no other way, besides if you are here asking, you are already taking a step forward.
  • #11
  • Jun 1, 2012 3:42am Jun 1, 2012 3:42am
Quoting pipmutt

Learn to trade, learn the concept of 'trading', then you can play with systems, strategies, indicators, and methods. They're all 10'a'penny and most of them can be overall profitable, but first you've got to learn how to put them to good use. A good trader can profit from even a mediocre strategy, a bad trader can lose their shirt even with a first class strategy!
I don't really understand what does your concept of trading really means? What does the concept of trading roughly consist of? Is it fundamentally of why people sell or buy a currency? Is it I need to understand news event (or speculation)? Is it I need to understand supply & demand of economy? Isn't it roughly same like fundamental analysis? Does that means I need to get good at fundamental analysis before I continue to trade? Please understand that I am not trying to challenge you or your answer. I am just trying to understand better about your answer.

I also know systems and methods are quite common and easily available especially in forex factory but when you said most of them can be overall profitable, I am not sure my low level of expertise or understanding can agree with that. Although it is true that I didn't try a lot of systems but all the systems that I tried, their result end up with this providing I didn't change any of their rules:
- after 10-20 backtest trades, the result was marvelous (70-80% accuracy assuming 1:1 R:R)
- after around 50 backtest trades, if I am lucky, the result still good (55-65% accuracy)
- after around 100 backtest trades, the result would not be really good (45-55% accuracy)
- after around 200-300 backtest trades, the result will be roughly only break-even (48-52% accuracy)

Most of the backtest are done manually and it usually took around 1 - 2 months to complete those backtest. I haven't even got into demo before I rejected their system. Did I found wrong systems or did I approached it wrongly?

Before you answer me, I believe it is best for me to explain a little bit about myself so you roughly can know what is my level of understanding. I am around 1 year + of trading experience. I had completely read babypips school. Although not 100% understand it but at least 80-90% of it. I read some books about trading, psychology & money management. I also attended some course. I didn't blow up any account yet and currently trading using a live micro account for the past 6 months. Although that account has grown a little (around 10%) but I believe it was 80% luck - 20% skill, if not 100% luck.

Your reply will be much appreciated.

Quoting Eric D
I could not trade the methods the way my mentors told me to do, not a single one of them, there is no way to pass the experience and "feeling" or discretion that makes a methodology succesful (at least that is what I firmly believe), you can still look for one you like, you will find thousands or millions of such "systems" and add your experience to it, mix it with hundreds of screen time hours of practice and you will sooner or later "get it right", I feel there is no other way, besides if you are here asking, you are already taking a step...
Exactly, especially the "feeling" or discretion part. I took the trade that I didn't know why they never took even though the rules are the same and they took the trade that I didn't know why they took because it doesn't tally with their rules. That's why I am looking for lesser discretion involved system. However, I do found some if not most "mentors" that are not really expert. They are just good at marketing and repeating/explaining things that the expert are telling. They haven't even trade successfully themselves. Sometimes, just sometimes, I felt I am better than them.

I haven't look through the system that you suggested yet but I already book mark it for future reference after I fail the system I am currently testing with. Thanks for suggesting your system to me.
  • #12
  • Jun 2, 2012 1:58am Jun 2, 2012 1:58am
Quoting anyremote

I don't really understand what does your concept of trading really means? What does the concept of trading roughly consist of? Is it fundamentally of why people sell or buy a currency? Is it I need to understand news event (or speculation)? Is it I need to understand supply & demand of economy?
Trading is basically a mindset, it's not about fundamentals, technicals, supply and demand, or even the market/instrument being traded. Understand the basic concept of 'trading' and the rest will follow more easily. Without that understanding and mindset you're unlikely to do much more than tread water at best.

Read something like 'Trading in the Zone' and see if your perspective changes. You won't find any systems, strategies, or magic indicators in the book but it should give you everything you need to help your progress.
  • #13
  • Jun 2, 2012 8:13am Jun 2, 2012 8:13am
forex .. success key is - MM (no more then 0.1%), trend following system and good attitude. :]
  • #14
  • Jun 5, 2012 5:03pm Jun 5, 2012 5:03pm
Is there really a Holy Grail for trading Forex? If you're talking about finding a strategy that will bring you untold riches time and time again, the answer is NO. That's because every strategy works some of the time. So does flipping a coin. The market does what it wants to do and a tried and true strategy, no matter how well it tests out, will still give you losses. Can you still have more wins than losses, of course. Can you have more wins than losses and still be dollar negative??? Absolutely.

That's because the Holy Grail lies in how well you manage your money. It's something that mentors rarely give much credence to and that's because a new strategy always sounds sexier than sound money management. Selling money management is like telling a teenager to wear sturdy shoes instead of the latest crunch-your-toes pointed models. Those sturdy shoes just don't sell as well.

The secret of successful Forex traders is that they manage their losses. They know what they stand to lose for every trade they take. That takes the stress out of trading. There are no surprises if you know what is at stake each time you enter a trade.
  • #15
  • Oct 17, 2016 4:17am Oct 17, 2016 4:17am
In very simple terms, Holy Grail means that there is an equal possibility of losing money and gaining money while you are trading. It’s all about trading with the right strategy to make the best out of it but not knowing the impact of the outcome.
  • #16
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:09am Oct 17, 2016 6:09am
For me it was thought up by the honest traders out there trying to helping people that wanted a quick fix.

You will look and look for it, but never find it.

Trading is very hard, you need hard work and hours in front of the markets watching and learning.

Ive been lucky enough to trade with some of the best traders in the world, and you wouldn't believe how they make money sometimes!
  • #17
  • Oct 17, 2016 9:02am Oct 17, 2016 9:02am
brother, there is not such thing as holy grail in Forex! Greatest traders loss too , you are not alone, so no holy grail in Forex brother! No strategy is profitable in ALL types of trading conditions. Just because there’s no holy grail doesn’t mean you can’t be profitable trading Forex. Many traders are already trading full-time and even more are content to be consistently profitable. The key is to control your risk. Since you can’t eliminate it, the least you can do is to control it with proper risk management.
  • #18
  • Oct 18, 2016 2:10am Oct 18, 2016 2:10am
Quoting anyremote
Hi, I know we keep saying there is no such thing as holy grail in trading. But what does holy grail really means? Let's put money management and psychology aside first. Let's say I am searching for a system that having 60%-65% accuracy after backtested if for around 300-500 trades or maybe 1000 trades, assuming 1:1 risk and reward ratio. The system should be 100% mechanical rules or at least very little discreet involve. With these conditions for a system that I am searching, am I searching for holy grail? Comment and advice from experienced traders...
By putting money management and psychology aside like you say is putting your holy grail aside also. Not one part of trading is a holy grail but all combined working in unison.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #19
  • Oct 18, 2016 6:15am Oct 18, 2016 6:15am
Quoting Forexnuts
The term is relative but if you ask any newbie about this, pat would come the answer " an automated system that will execute trades on my behalf with 0% loss"..
Let me add my 2 cents
Â
What newbie?? What 0%?? What psychology??
Â
The guy is asking for a simple thing: a system that returns profits. That's it.
Any system that can return 55% success rate over many years is Holy grail. Simple yeah??
That's say 10% profitables a year, mechanical, same lots. How you manage lots, risk, commission, dirty shoes or pants - your problem. Not Holy Grail problem.
ÂÂ
Funny enough i have one in mind ongoing for year....but i lack the discipline to implement it fully. Too slow. I get dragged in waves and trends and cr.p.
So good luck. It's out there.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #20
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:59pm Oct 19, 2016 4:59pm
There is no such thing as The Holy Grail of Trading.

Also, it is a mistake to want a system that backtests well for a year (or even longer) because market conditions change.

There can be NO black and white rules for trading and all beginners make the mistake of demanding just that.

If there were black and white rules, don't you think they would have been found by now and everyone would know them? But think about it - trading is a zero sum game. Your profit has to be someone else's loss so everyone simply can't win. In reality it's maybe 90% or more 'beginner' traders who follow conventional wisdom and lose to the 5% who trade in the opposite direction because they don't do the same as everybody else (or they have the guts to hang on with a large SL)...

That said, there's maybe 5- 10% who more or less break even and belong to neither camp but the chances are if they're not making big profits they will eventually hit a bad spell and end up losing everything.

There's been thousands of EAs trading with black and white rules, millions of lines written in forums over the last 10 years or more and you still think the Holy Grail is out there waiting to be found?

.
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