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A "new" simple system based on MA

  • #1,481
  • Sep 30, 2016 6:16am Sep 30, 2016 6:16am
like hmaoui would say

When u trade with only 1 lot your 49 Pips are about 600 Dollar a really good salary

and we cannot win all Pips, make ur money and then go away otherwise u will lost in the long run.
Everyday better.
  • #1,482
  • Sep 30, 2016 8:57am Sep 30, 2016 8:57am
A little aid when looking at your charts...


EMA12 is yellow.
EMA30 is white.

Look at the EMA12 on a chart, say H1. Look how it is pointed.

Now look at the M15 at the same area. Do you see that the EMA30 looks like the EMA12 on the H1?

So, if you have only H1 and M15 displayed but want to know what the LTs are doing on M5, for comparing 3 charts, just look at the M15 EMA12
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,483
  • Oct 2, 2016 9:26am Oct 2, 2016 9:26am
hmaoui has mentioned that his brother likes to use rsi indicator. I compare below RSI and STOCHASTICS. They are quite similar, but I think I prefer the stochs because the slow stoch tends to span a larger range than the slow RSI. "Choose an indicator and master it."

The slow indicator crossing 50 tends to show trend direction. The fast indicator can be used for detecting "good" retracements. and entry timing. Also can go to smaller timeframe for tuning entry with slow indicator.

Below strategy will give many A+ setups. (Note that this is NOT an A+ setup on H1 for the buy, because H4 is in a strong downtrend and the buy setup is actually trading the rally on H4. But there is a tradable setup on M15 for buying.) The sell is an A+ setup on H1.

If looking at H1 for slow indicator to cross above 50 for buying (white vertical), tune entry by going to M15 to find the pullback (slow indicator crossing 50 down, red dotted vertical) then buy when slow indicator crosses 50 up (green vertical). To exit, go to M30 and exit when fast indicator crosses the 80 level down from OB (red vertical).

If looking at H1 for slow indicator to cross blow 50 for selling (white vertical), tune entry by going to M15 to find the rally (slow indicator crossing 50 up, green dotted vertical) then sell when slow indicator crosses 50 down (red vertical). To exit, go to M30 and exit when fast indicator crosses the 20 level up from OS (green vertical).

stoch(5,2,4)
stoch(25,3,3) only the signal line
levels at 20, 80, 50

rsi(3) smoothed by sma(3)
rsi(12) smoothed by sma(3)
levels at 30, 70, 50

I attached only the H1 and M15 charts for display.

H1
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M15
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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,484
  • Oct 5, 2016 3:09am Oct 5, 2016 3:09am
Quoting arlucad
do u have a max candles for a Pullback ? i would say that max 2-4 candels after that most of the time the trend will end soon. what do u think?
I think there is no rule about the number of candles to retrace. But I like when you have a strong movement in the direction of the pullback and then it is stopped by a little candle such as a doji or a shooting star for example in the zone of the LT EMAs. It means that countertrend movement was strong to enough to make a pullback very fast but it is then stopped by a consolidation candle which means that even if the pullback was strong, the trend is much stronger to stop it !
  • #1,485
  • Oct 6, 2016 11:18am Oct 6, 2016 11:18am
Took this trade today in demo. Still Trying to learn the method. Have trouble finding all three to line up perfectly. This was on a 5 min chart.
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  • #1,486
  • Oct 6, 2016 12:52pm Oct 6, 2016 12:52pm
Todays trade for 9 pips; GBPUSD
M16 was in down trend and rallied. Stoch25 stayed below 50 level.
M8 on the rally pushed EMA12 against EMA30. Stoch25 went into OB zone.
M4 crossed EMA12 above EMA30 on the rally. Stoch25 went into OB zone.

Sold on M4 after a big down candle that closed below EMA30, plus stoch5 going down.

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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,487
  • Oct 10, 2016 9:31am Oct 10, 2016 9:31am
Quoting nhtrading
Took this trade today in demo. Still Trying to learn the method. Have trouble finding all three to line up perfectly. This was on a 5 min chart. {image}
Hi ! This is a very important remark you made : "have troube finding all 3 to line up perfectly". This happens in some cases. What is the reason ? This not a perfect A+ setup ! But remember these rules :

- any indicators are only here to confirm what you see on your charts (prices and EMAs). So you have to use them as confirmation of what you have on your charts.
- before trading in a 5mn charts, dont forget to do your "homework" !!! I mean look at the major trend on higher timeframes and never forget it : Long term is very strong !!! So you dont have to trade without knowing what is happening on higher TF

Knowing that, please look at the weekly and daily charts on the €/$ : what do you see ? No trend !!! Only consolidation. So you have many chance to have false signals on lower TF such as 5 mn. Now have a look at GBP/USD and you will see that the trend is clearly down on higher TF. So you can trade the system easier on lower TF and you will find A+ setup.
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  • #1,488
  • Oct 10, 2016 12:24pm Oct 10, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting hmaoui
{quote} you dont have to trade without knowing what is happening on higher TF Knowing that, please look at the weekly and daily charts on the /$ : what do you see ? No trend !!! Only consolidation. So you have many chance to have false signals on lower TF such as 5 mn. {image}
Hi hmauoi,

While it is true that the "big" charts are in consolidation, and there are higher chances for false signals on low TF such as M5, that still does not mean their won't be valid setups.

On the attached charts, the orange vertical line in the price window was put on at the entry spot using the M16 chart.

For example, the M256 chart (~H4) is clearly in a downtrend with ST < LT and spread. At the orange trend line, we see it rally. When my blue stoch line reached the 50 line, I would look at the M64.
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On M64 chart, you can see in the stoch window that I put a vertical line. EMA12 x EMA60 about there and the blue stoch is going OB. So I now want to find a sell entry. So I go to the M16 chart. The price went quite far up on M64 during the rally, so I keep the M256 chart open to see how the rally looks there as well.
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On the M16 chart, the vertical in the stoch window was from the M64 chart. So I am looking past that for the EMA12 x EMA30 down and the blue stoch line to go below 50. After these conditions, I want to see a rally that will show at least in the green stoch line. Then when both of the stochs turn down and price has closed below EMA12, I sell (The orange vertical). That leg had the potential for 20 pips, so taking 10pips should have been easy. The ATR10 was 6 pips at that time, so 10 pips is a reasonable target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,489
  • Oct 11, 2016 3:37am Oct 11, 2016 3:37am
You are right Dr DAVE but if you trade a market which is in a range on the higher TF, you really MUST wait for A+ setup especially when you are a newbie. So to begin and master the system, it is better to trade markets which are trending on higher TF. It is easier and you optimize your chances of success. Of course, it does not mean that you cant trade a ranging market. But you have to select your trades, know your levels etc...For example, you can look at the cable which is pointing south on a weekly basis, so it is really much easier for a newbie to make pips with the system.
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  • #1,490
  • Oct 11, 2016 10:41am Oct 11, 2016 10:41am
Quoting hmaoui
You are right Dr DAVE but if you trade a market which is in a range on the higher TF, you really MUST wait for A+ setup especially when you are a newbie. So to begin and master the system, it is better to trade markets which are trending on higher TF. It is easier and you optimize your chances of success. Of course, it does not mean that you cant trade a ranging market. But you have to select your trades, know your levels etc...For example, you can look at the cable which is pointing south on a weekly basis, so it is really much easier for a newbie...
What time frame would you suggest a newbie trade your system. 1min 5min 15Min? I appreciate the suggestion of trading in the direction of the weekly chart.
  • #1,491
  • Oct 11, 2016 10:52am Oct 11, 2016 10:52am
Quoting nhtrading
{quote} What time frame would you suggest a newbie trade your system. 1min 5min 15Min? I appreciate the suggestion of trading in the direction of the weekly chart.
If you have the capital to use a bit larger stops, then use H4, H1, M15. If you want to "fine tune" your entry on the M15, look at the M1 to be sure it is traveling in your direction when you enter. But don't keep watching M1 after you enter, because it can make many up/down cycles to the M15, and you will get nervous when you see it going against you. Then you will do crazy things like exit too soon, move your SL, etc.

Just set your TP and SL and let the market hit whichever it hits.

And remember that if you are using a bar close on M15 as part of your entry criteria, then you have to have patience to wait another 15 minutes each time the close criterion isn't met.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,492
  • Oct 12, 2016 8:34am Oct 12, 2016 8:34am
Dear nhtrading,

There are lots of things that will lead you to trade on 5 mn charts or Weekly charts. Of course the capital needed is not the same because SL can be huge on higher TF. But it also depends on other psychological parameters. Anyway, even if you trade the 1mn chart, you have to know the overall trend on weekly and daily charts, and the most important levels of support and resistance bcause these are areas where SL or Targets could be put. The fact is that if you trade on trending markets (on weekly/daily basis), you have more chance to succeed in trading the 5mn chart.

For example, look at your daily/weekly chart on GBP/USD you clearly see a downtrend. Now what happened on 5 mn chart ? A double top near a RN 1,23. Can't you take a trade on this level ? Of course you can ! Then to optimize your timing you can go on a 100 ticks chart to take your entry point. I entered with this method at 1.2296 with a SL @ 1.2312 (16 pips). I took a part of my profit @1.2250 and put my stop @B/E. Now I am free of any risk and I manage my position on a 1h TF. I will exit another part @1.2135 and let the rest run until the major trend change.....

Trading this way, you can make a ton of pips even if you have a little account ! Compounding will give you many many money believe me !!!!
  • #1,493
  • Oct 12, 2016 3:06pm Oct 12, 2016 3:06pm
Took this trade today in Demo. GBP/USD using the 30 min chart. I am up about 30pips on the trade. My Target is 40.
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  • #1,494
  • Oct 14, 2016 6:01am Oct 14, 2016 6:01am
Hi traders !

Here is a 15mn chart of EUR/JPY. An ex-student asked me why did I take a short ? I explained him that price action and chart analysis is very important. How and why I took this trade that I gave my subscribers list is clearly explained on the charts below. Only on this trade, this is around 28% of ROI without any risk over 2%. This is purely chart analysis, price action, support/resistance levels, and guppy system ! This ex-student who is now a subscriber to my mailing list didn't follow me because EMAs was not perfect for him. That's ok ! But never forget that the system is a whole : I mean there is Guppy EMAs, price action, support/resistance levels, chart analysis, and money management of course ! Even if he wants to wait for the breakdow of the EMAs on the 15mn chart, He would have to take the 3 last positions.....But he told me that he was troubled with his "psychology". The evidence of what I always told you here : you can earn money with any system but you have to be psychologicaly prepared to trade on the markets !!!!!!

P.S. : One of my subscriber won enough to pay his appartement for the next year.......not so bad in one trade !
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  • #1,495
  • Edited 4:08pm Oct 14, 2016 1:15pm | Edited 4:08pm
I love your system! After trading it for a while my biggest problem is the moneymanagement.

I trade on the m1 chart and my normal stop is about 3-5 points and i trade 3 lots. When my trade is at 1:1 i get out with one lot and let the rest run to 1:2 and the last one to 1:3

But i dont have an idea to scale out on such a little risk.
Have u any ideas?

Or do u think i shoul hunt with all 3 lots for 1:2 and close the position ?

I got about 55% winners and hunt for 20points daily. Im positiv for 3 months, but i think i can do a bettee job at my risk management.

Please help :-)
  • #1,496
  • Oct 16, 2016 11:56pm Oct 16, 2016 11:56pm
Quoting troparzum
I love your system! After trading it for a while my biggest problem is the moneymanagement. I trade on the m1 chart and my normal stop is about 3-5 points and i trade 3 lots. When my trade is at 1:1 i get out with one lot and let the rest run to 1:2 and the last one to 1:3 But i dont have an idea to scale out on such a little risk. Have u any ideas? Or do u think i shoul hunt with all 3 lots for 1:2 and close the position ? I got about 55% winners and hunt for 20points daily. Im positiv for 3 months, but i think i can do a bettee job at my risk...
Hi ! That's a very good begining. What I can advise you is lookig first at 5mn chart and then add your position through 100 ticks chart for example. It depends on the asset you trade because you have to adapt your TF to add your position according to the volatility of the asset. For example, volatility on the €/$ is not the same as on the GBP/JPY or French index CAC40. That's one of the "secrets" I teach to my students. Also be aware of the major trend and major supports and reistances. These are key levels ! Know the overall trend and key levels, take a TF that will give you the direction of your trade, then optimize your timing and add to your initial position thanks to lower timeframe. To give you one of the secret, tick charts are wonderful because it is based on volumes and not only on time !!!!
  • #1,497
  • Oct 24, 2016 9:45am Oct 24, 2016 9:45am
I did not take this trade, but wanted to post it. This is in the 15m time frame. There was a good bounce off the 30 moving average. A star formation is a good indicator of the reversal to continue the morning uptrend. The reason I did not take this trade was because EUR/JPY is in a long term down trend, and this would be counter to that trend.
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  • #1,498
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:46am Oct 25, 2016 6:46am
Hi every trader ! Just to inform you that inscriptions are closed for the next session of my classroom. I have 5 students who paid me 20% of the total amount. Except if there is an annulation, I cant accept anyone now. Sorry for those who asked me...
  • #1,499
  • Oct 27, 2016 9:40am Oct 27, 2016 9:40am
Everything on this trade lined up really well. +30 pips
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  • #1,500
  • Oct 28, 2016 9:55am Oct 28, 2016 9:55am
Had a good week with the system.
Monday +14
Tuesday + 36
Wednesday -20
Thursday +21
Friday +16

Wednesday I started the day out +10 on my first trade then spent the rest of the day losing money. Just couldn't find a good trending market. Should have just stayed out after the first trade. Ended up with 10 trades that day trying to get back to positive. Way over trading, need to get that in check.

Here is my trade for today. Not seeing a lot of direction today, so done until Monday. Going to start with live trades next week on a small account.
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