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A Little Breakout Here and There

  • #41
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:09pm Sep 30, 2016 9:09pm
Quoting mbolton
Hi Harry, I've been looking to make an EA for this and initially it wasn't looking particularly positive. I've now added an option to use EMA so that we only trade with the general trend and it's looking more positive. So far I've tested on the 4hr against USDCAD and EURGBP and results are potentially promising. Now I could do with some input from others as to whether they feel it could be worthwhile and if there's anything we could add to it. Anyway, see what you think, Mark. {file}
Great! Thanks mbolton. I won't be able to test any EAs for the tiem being. What SL and TP did you test with? Why those pairs?
  • #42
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:29am Oct 3, 2016 4:29am
Quoting Landline
Nothing triggered yesterday, but 2 out of my 3 have
Hi Landline, I'm just curious. Do you still trade the semaphore and stochzzmismatch you introduced in Al's system? If yes, is it still profitable today as it was when you developed the system? I ask because I see merit in it but would like to know for sure from the developer of that strategy. Thanks.
Fred
  • #43
  • Oct 3, 2016 8:04am Oct 3, 2016 8:04am
Quoting HarryPlopper
{quote} Great! Thanks mbolton. I won't be able to test any EAs for the tiem being. What SL and TP did you test with? Why those pairs?
SL and TP are based on ATR as you defined.

I have added multipliers for each of the SL and TP so you could have for example a TP of 2x ATR and an SL of 1x ATR.

No logic around the currencies I have tested -they were just the first ones I ran against.

Mark.
  • #44
  • Oct 7, 2016 7:19am Oct 7, 2016 7:19am
Just letting everybody know who is/was interested in thsi thread that I won't be posting here any more. Focusing on other methods now, more long term trading due to time limitations
  • #45
  • Oct 14, 2016 11:33am Oct 14, 2016 11:33am
A new twist! Been looking at lots of breakout ideas of late, combining fractals, swings, various indicators etc. Stumbled across the 10 pip stretchy which basically involves identifying a 3bar swing high or low and then buying the open of the next bar. I like the idea of it and decided to see how it stacks up when combined with the 2bar close rule that is the main them of this thread. Upon first glance on a few pairs it seems to look pretty nice although I have no idea how it would hold up on a thorough backtest. The original pdf I found here: http://masrukhin.yolasite.com/resources/10%20PIPS.pdf

You can see in on the attached chart the 1s represent the bars which formed a higher high or low compared with the 2 bars on either side. Unlike in the pdf, I have named the bar to the left of the swing high/low as Bar 1.

For a buy, Bar 2 needs to close above the highs of both bar 1 and the Swing Low. Entry is at open of Bar 3, stop placed just under the low of Bar 2. Take profit can be personal preference. Perhaps 1:1 or 1:1.5.

Reverse this for a sell. Bar 2 close should be lower than the lows of bar 1 and the swing high. Stop placed just above the high of bar 2, Entry at open of Bar 3.

Please take a look. I think this has more promise than what was initially outlined earlier in this thread.

Have a nice weekend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2bar close swing.JPG Size: 157 KB
  • #46
  • Oct 14, 2016 11:46am Oct 14, 2016 11:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD 2close swing example 4hr.JPG Size: 80 KB
  • #47
  • Oct 14, 2016 11:50am Oct 14, 2016 11:50am
not without losses of course. in the UCAD example above, there was a buying opportunity right before the first selling one. the bar 3 buy is actually the bar 1 at top of the image, and would have stopped out.
  • #48
  • Oct 15, 2016 12:42pm Oct 15, 2016 12:42pm
Quoting HarryPlopper
A new twist! Been looking at lots of breakout ideas of late, combining fractals, swings, various indicators etc. Stumbled across the 10 pip stretchy which basically involves identifying a 3bar swing high or low and then buying the open of the next bar. I like the idea of it and decided to see how it stacks up when combined with the 2bar close rule that is the main them of this thread. Upon first glance on a few pairs it seems to look pretty nice although I have no idea how it would hold up on a thorough backtest. The original pdf I found here: http://masrukhin.yolasite.com/resources/10%20PIPS.pdf...
Hi, there are many options to trade for sure, but for now I'm sticking with my variation which has worked well for me lately
  • #49
  • Edited 7:16pm Oct 15, 2016 7:06pm | Edited 7:16pm
Quoting HarryPlopper
A new twist! Been looking at lots of breakout ideas of late, combining fractals, swings, various indicators etc. Stumbled across the 10 pip stretchy which basically involves identifying a 3bar swing high or low and then buying the open of the next bar. I like the idea of it and decided to see how it stacks up when combined with the 2bar close rule that is the main them of this thread. Upon first glance on a few pairs it seems to look pretty nice although I have no idea how it would hold up on a thorough backtest. The original pdf I found here: http://masrukhin.yolasite.com/resources/10%20PIPS.pdf...
Hi guys. I like the look of this version - at least enough to give it a run round the block. Will have a look and will stick around here if the interest in the thread is maintained going forward.

EDIT: Is this in fact, a red-haired-second-cousin of the 1-2-3 trade?
  • #50
  • Oct 15, 2016 8:03pm Oct 15, 2016 8:03pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hi guys. I like the look of this version - at least enough to give it a run round the block. Will have a look and will stick around here if the interest in the thread is maintained going forward. EDIT: Is this in fact, a red-haired-second-cousin of the 1-2-3 trade?
No.
1-2-3 is a reversal.
This is a breakout.
Are you going to tell them about the NY 7 AM BO?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #51
  • Oct 16, 2016 2:19am Oct 16, 2016 2:19am
GJ, some 1 hour trade setups. Using ATR(50) of Bar 2 as the take profit, the first maybe would have stopped out, the rest all hit target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ 1 hr 2bar close swing example.JPG Size: 146 KB
  • #52
  • Oct 16, 2016 3:49am Oct 16, 2016 3:49am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} No. 1-2-3 is a reversal. This is a breakout. Are you going to tell them about the NY 7 AM BO?
It's a breakout from a reversal, lol! 1-2-3 gets in earlier but I suppose these don't have to occur at an extreme H/L. I didn't think the NY 7am method had much relevance to this one.
  • #53
  • Oct 16, 2016 4:13am Oct 16, 2016 4:13am
nice work harryplopper :]
  • #54
  • Oct 16, 2016 7:44am Oct 16, 2016 7:44am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} It's a breakout from a reversal, lol! 1-2-3 gets in earlier but I suppose these don't have to occur at an extreme H/L. I didn't think the NY 7am method had much relevance to this one.

i think most of the times the breakout will be from a reversal but because the key part is the close, the breakout could be a sign of trend continuation
  • #55
  • Oct 16, 2016 7:48am Oct 16, 2016 7:48am
Quoting nozzer
nice work harryplopper :]

thanks


have asked in the indicator coding thread if someone could create an indicator based on an even more specific version of what i wrote a few posts earlier. Basically bearish bullish bullish pattern or bullish bearish bearish pattern. I think this has great potential but still tinkering around, an indicator would make spotting the setup much easier for a manual backtest
Attached Images
  • #56
  • Oct 16, 2016 7:49am Oct 16, 2016 7:49am
Quoting Landline
{quote} Hi, there are many options to trade for sure, but for now I'm sticking with my variation which has worked well for me lately
awesome! would love to see an example of how you're using multi-timeframes!
  • #57
  • Oct 16, 2016 10:44pm Oct 16, 2016 10:44pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=589242
  • #58
  • Oct 17, 2016 1:35am Oct 17, 2016 1:35am
Had a look across various pairs over the weekend and on the Daily tf as a set-and-(kinda)-forget you are looking at a robust method for sure.

I binned all directional-bias filters as they were causing us to miss too many huge moves.

All you need to do is think of the pattern as an arrow. If the arrow points up, trade down. Arrow points down, trade up.

The pattern appears over all tfs but higher up you do get a chance for a set-and-forget, as I said and this is attractive to a lot of traders who have to work a day job.

The ultimate in naked-chart trading.
  • #59
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:53am Oct 17, 2016 2:53am
Google "two bar reversal" / "two bar reversal indicator".

Truly there is nothing (completely) new under the sun.

It's all good...
  • #60
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:22am Oct 17, 2016 3:22am
As a taster, here's Cable. I have not marked up those patterns that did not trigger.

I had looked originally at entry on the break of the box. You could make more by entering on the open of the trigger candle, often substantially more. However there would be some losses added in doing that as well. Having said that, those losses could be offset by counter-trading. Swings-and-Roundabouts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDailythree-wise-men.png Size: 26 KB
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