Cycles and Time in Trading- The JRM Trading Model - FX

I'm Jason Jenkins and first let me tell you a little about myself.
Prior to founding Jenkins Risk Management, I was Head of Rates Trading at CG Capital Markets. Before joining CG Capital, I spent almost a decade trading US Treasuries and building out a successful institutional analysis and fixed income trading business. I have covered all the primary dealers, large buy-side money managers and hedge funds. My financial career began at Charles Schwab as a trader in the equity and options markets before moving to the sell-side to trade fixed income at JVB Financial and vFinance. I also hold a bachelors degree in Finance and Business Administration from the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Now about our firm.
JRM is an independent, transparent, elite trading and analysis firm that puts an emphasis on non-biased directional analysis with a proven consistent risk management process.Our model is institutionally forged with real experience and a real risk management process across a multitude of time duration's and asset classes. We have covered the largest institutions offering our analysis and trading execution for both the buy and sell side. It is now our goal to open this model up and to add value not only to those on Wall Street, but to the independent individual trader and investor around the world.

Join our free chatroom here


The Jenkins Model
Our model uses Technical and Cyclical Analysis for any market that seeks and defines repeatable edges as it pertains to price with a risk management process that covers multiple time horizons. The model is fractal in nature, meaning it covers any time frame with the smaller micro trends building into the larger longer-term macro trends.We call this process our

Fractal Top Down Directional Model.
Trading in its purest form is really a psychological and confidence game but its also a pattern recognition and numbers game. We use our proprietary directional technical and timing analysis to define the edges or probabilities of a particular outcome in relation to the price action of a certain currency or market. We then define the risk and implement our process of realizing profits.We analyze the price action the same for all currencies across all markets for all time frames. However the emphasis is always on the larger more dominant trends and then we analyze down to the micro level for day-trade opportunities. Thus we focus on the yearly price action all the way down to the 1 minute charts.



Our site
www.Jenkinsrm.com We post trades 24 hours with real time updates and also offer swing and longer term positions. Our goal is to build an elite team of traders that grow and prosper together. Our services include a free live trade chat room to share ideas and trades along with private memberships where positions are called live and managed. I will start to post trades, results and analysis beginning tomorrow(hurricane coming soon). I hope to add to the incredible information that Forex Factory makes available to the trading world. Questions? please email us at [email protected] Visit our site at www.jenkinsrm.com Look for my posts starting tomorrow! Trade well.

Sorry, forgot to post our last results!





Again, I will begin posting and analyzing charts tomorrow.

The Power of Trading Around a CORE Position in the Currency Markets


One of the key components of successful trading or investing, is the ability to trade around a CORE position. The core position as we say, is the main position of the investment or the primary amount of shares or contracts that you wish to have on during the majority of the time you are in a particular trade. Sadly, most people have no understanding of how to apply such a concept, and they plow into a trade or investment in just one single entry. Giving yourself one entry or at best 2, has very limiting implications, but what is even more limiting is the idea of holding just 1 or 2 lots for the entire move.
It is true that a majority of market players approach the market in this fashion. They enter once or twice at best and they move into the next phase of the their trading plan which typically is to either STOP OUT on their trade or move to take profits and exit the trade. This is a very amateur and novice approach to the markets.
It is possible to achieve winning results with the above mentioned style of market play, however one must adhere to strict risk reward profiles and the opportunity for significant gains outside the normal risk reward profiles is very limited. The ideal scenario and the exceptional gains come from adding to your play. This is the concept of trading around your initial entries or your CORE position. Let me show and explain in the below scenarios the difference between taking a core position followed by simply exiting, and the difference of ADDING & REDUCING around the core position.
Lets take an example in our model of a trade on the Dollar vs the Yen (USD/JPY). Back in January of this year, the USD/JPY rallied into the 200 period and 314 period moving averages and then subsequently failed resuming its downtrend. If you had shorted into the rally inititiatiing positions at both of these locations, a short position at 120.45 and an additional short position at 121.45 would have been initiated. If in this example, you shorted a 50,000 lot at each price, your average cost would then be 120.95 for a total position size of short 100,000.
A simple stop about 100 pips above the market would then be appropriate giving the trade some room above these 2 main moving averages. Since the failure and rejection in Jan/Feb, the price on USD/JPY has remained in a well defined downtrend, and lets assume in this example that you or the individual is still short as the longterm trend has not been violated and USD/JPY has continued to make Lower Lows and Lower Highs. The current price as of the last daily closing on Friday May 20th, 2016 is 110.14 shown on the below chart

USDJPY Daily Chart
At the current level of 110.14 on USDJPY, for every 50,000 lot position, USDJPY will move $4.54 per pip. Now if your average cost of the 2 lot entry is 120.95 on a 100,000 size position, and your stop is 100 pips above the market, your risk is 100 pips x $9.08 per pip = $908. Also to enter into a 100k short position, most brokers will give you 30:1 or 50:1 in the USA, outside the US some firms allow up to 200:1, however for our purposes to put on 100k position it costs $3,000 in used margin. Now since the start of the current downtrend and after our initial entries, USD/JPY has made a series of Lower Highs (LH on the below chart) and our model would still be in this play until a break of the pivot Lower High currently around 112. See the below chart for the visual of what the above paragraph just went over


USDJPY Daily Chart of our CORE trade

The above is an example of a very nice trade and the model caught a nice long-term downtrend. 10:1 Risk Reward and 227% ROI crushes most returns out there in any other markets.
Now lets do one better however, and lets look at the types of returns one can achieve by applying an Adding & Reducing method as you trade around the CORE position.
Here we have the same 2 lot CORE entries, but we add to the short by selling another 50k short on the break of the Green Real Money Bar, and this type of reversal also creates what we call a Delayed Bear 180 (These setups we go over in our training rooms and coaching seminars0. However, after the add we bring our stop down now to the first Stop Adjustment highlighted in orange on the below chart. Next we get another event we call a Green Bar Ignored or GBI this is actually a neutral bar ignored in this scenario but it serves the same purpose we add another 50k short.
Next we take some profit and this is marked by the green Cover TP1 on the chart. TP1 stands for Take Profit 1, with 1 being the 1st profit taking event in the series. We then move our stop down to above our second add locations high which creates a pivot. Next we get another Sell Setup, this is another technique we teach. From here the next move is a cover into TP2 and we then again bring our stop down to the pivot lower highs. From here you can see on the chart this pattern of Adding & Reducing continues with each Sell Setup in our model and each cover location in the model as well. The last take profit event comes at TP6 where we had 2 exhaustion bars into new lower lows which our model always takes on new lower lows, and this brought us out of 1 of our initial CORE pieces. The last lot at TP7 could be closed for calculation of profits which we will do in the below paragraph, but this last lot could also remain open with at trading stop applied to the Lower Highs designated on the chart. Below is the chart of the power of compounding a core trade by adding and reducing to the play.


USDJPY Daily Chart with Adding & Reducing
Now lets look at the numbers and the results from adding and reducing to the core position

1. 117.73 Add Short Delayed Bear 180, 50k add = $4.54 per pip used margin $1,500 Commission $4, Covered=>113.13, Reward =>117.73-113.13= 4.6 points = 460 pips460 pips x $4.54 per pip = $2, 088.40 (minus $8 commissions)
2. 115.92 Add GBI Short, 50k add = same pip calculation as above, Cover => 111.52, Reward=> 115.92-111.52 = 4.4 points, 440 x $4.54 = $1,997.60
3. 112.61 Add Short Topping Tail, 50k add = same as above, Cover=> 110.60, Reward=>112.60-110.60 = 2.01 points = 201 pips, 201 x $4.54 = $912.54
4. 112.75 GBTO, 50k add = same as above, Cover=> 108.38, Reward=> 112.57 -108.38 = 4.19 points = 419 pips, 419 x $4.54 = $1,902.26
5. Is covering 1/2 of the core position120.54 Original Entry, 50k position= same calculation as above, Cover=>106.24, Reward=> 120.45 106.24=14.21 points = 1,421 pips, 1,421 x $4.54 = $6,451.34
6. The last entry here is the cover of the last core piece or calculating value of the last open lot121.45 2nd Original Entry, 50k position = same as above, Cover=> 110.14, Reward=> 121.45 110.14 = 11.31 points = 1,131 pips = 1,131 x $4.54 = $5,134.74

For a grand total of $18,486.88!! This is more then double the original core position profits. Its a risk reward of 20:1 and an ROI of 516%! This is the power of Adding & Reducing Risk and trading around a winning CORE position.
For more information on our model and how we put this process into action in real time visit us at www.jenkinsrm.com

This is a video breakdown of my outlook for the upcoming week.
http://www.jenkinsrm.com/jrm-sunday-market-update-10916/

Also, I am live trading this Monday and Wednesday am come join us free we are looking to build a team of successful traders using our trading model- we love FX!!

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/reg...29879641161474

USDJPY Multi-duration Fractal Update


By Jason October 10, 2016 | 0

The Yen has been one of the strongest currencies all year however, we think that is going to change into the back half of this year and possibly into the first quarter of next year. We can see a reversal of trend and a relieving rebound in USD/JPY much higher from current levels. We have been bearish USD/JPY the entire year however we are now leaning long and looking to add both for the long-term and intermediate-term should USD/JPY break above 104.5 and then close the week above 105.
This seems like a very crowded trade being long the Yen and we would not be surprised if there a lot of late to the party shorts from poor location that will add fuel to the squeeze should the market break to new higher highs above 105.
Above 105 would break what we call the TMS in our trading model and when the TMS breaks in a downtrend the next move is then back toward the 200 period moving average or even what we call the Pi line (shown as the blue dashed line on the chart below chart). These two areas are 108 and 113 respectively.


USDJPY TMS Lines
We also wanted to do a little teaching in this post. See the below Weekly chart of USDJPY. We like to start our swing trades at the top or the bottom of the CYCLE (the slow stochastic oscillation) with the trend. We can see that price is in a downtrend in our model so as far as timing for swing positions, we like to time it when the cycle crosses and we look to grab trades between the chunk of time between the high cycle cross and the bottom cycle cross on the daily chart. This is denoted by the white rectangles on the below Daily Chart

USDJPY Daily Chart

From there after a daily cross we move to the 4 hour and 1 hour chart to pick specific entries and increase our size. Notice on the below 4 hour chart for the same chunks of time we see the 4 hour setups. This is how we compound our trades into Risk Reward ratios of 5:1, 10:1, and even 30:1 .


USDJPY 4 Hour Chart

Whats interesting about the most recent down move in the Daily cycle is it has produced no downside movement in price. This could mean that the next daily cycle cross back up on the slow stochastic could produce the move we are looking for through 105. (See the below video of what we mean here about the most recent divergence).




Come join a select group of profitable traders. We still have few openings for individuals that want to change their lives!! www.jenkinsrm.com

Our goal is to build an elite group of traders and build our firm on a solid base with the individuals we hand pick. Contact me personally at [email protected]

Cheers!

POUND UPDATE

I went back short for Pound vs Yen near term this evening (still swing short as well)


Join our elite traders www.jenkinsrm.com

I wanted to post a recap of our trade on GBPJPY from last night and the rest of the US session. The main concept of when we start our trades all has to do with how we identify TIME first and foremost - which is all about the cycles. Then we also identify the trend. So last night in Tokyo session I identified a fresh cross and downturn in the cycle and this was with the overall intermediate-term downtrend but more importantly the trend on the 30min chart and 15min chart. Here's is the chart of that point in time..



"I went back short for Pound vs Yen nearterm this evening (still swing short as well)"

From here ...this was the progression of our trades today.....
"Covering some here from our short last night in Tokyo and trading it around on the 1min/5min this am.GBPJPY is currently in a down 30min cycle and in a near-term downtrend. Edge is to be short."



We then posted this at 6:57am Eastern...."Covering most of my micro near-term daytrade here in GBPJPY as we always take profits on the short side on new Lower Lows (LL) and we are low within the 15min cycle."



...then started our second round of shorting today at 9:54am Eastern...
"Guys Im short again daytrade here withe 15min cycle and Ill sell more once the 30min rolls over."



Then this at 10:07am Eastern "30min crossed sold some more short."...



And then lastly we got covered up on new lower lows...."Cover 80% or so here with me if you are daytrade short."



This all about Cycles and TIME, its one thing to know how to trade price and the trend, but the real mastery comes with knowing how to trade with TIME and time matters more then price.

Here's an example of what is possible on a day like today on just a $30k account ...2 trades in our forex room both over +30 pips...



Come join us I want more traders.... www.jenkinsrm.com

We are back short GBPJPY this morning, although the FX market is quiet now infront of the Fed head speakers and the minutes. We do have a range trade in the near-term on GBPJPY going on and we are just leaning small short playing the 15min cycles. I'll short more if the 30min rolls over....



We took some profits on Long USDTRY up here as well as now price is back up into this resistance zone....

Ok Im gong back core short here after covering to get flat. I think something is going on here in the dollar longterm it looks like we are on the verge of breaking back out long-term so I want to be short Euro it appears to be breaking the wedge as well. So I sold down here even though we are oversold because I want a core short position longterm and I am happy now to resell the next 4 hour bounce and bring my size up to 1-3mm short over the next several weeks.



Here I will show my actions on EURUSD (you can also see the most recent plays listed on the chart), but from here I am leaning back core short and I welcome any rally back on the 1 hour and 4 hour charts for an opportunity to build this core short position.



Guys join my trading team for free - sign up for our chat room at our website here http://www.jenkinsrm.com/trading-chat-room/

Guys I did a video update on what I really think might be the start of a longer-term bull run in the dollar and downtrend in the euro.I think we need to go with it for now if it reverses back into the middle of the range so be it, but I think you start planning a core longterm long dollar position and short euro we have been playing both the same way over the intermediate-term but I think this warrants more size now for the longterm.

http://www.jenkinsrm.com/jrm-fx-update-101216/



Take a free trial in our live room!! www.jenkinsrm.com

Here's the start of my day trade short on GBPJPY this morning...(I'm still in the play)...
At 7:21am Eastern today -"I’m leaning short this am daytrade with the 30min cycle here."



Here's our next action at 7:42am - "Sold short a little more top of the 1min"



Our next action at 7:56am - "I just shorted more here top of the 5min cycle and 30min is still down cycle."



Booking profits at 8:13am - "Take profits into this dip. If you sold more up there I’m buying back 1/2 here of what I’m short. the 15min moved up on us so did the 30min cycle so have to cover some on this 5min cycle down."



At 8:26am we booked 80% of our gains. - "Guys cover 80% of your micro short here. I booked most of my gains I’ll sell more potentially on the next 5min cycle up."



Guys this is what is possible and much more inside just 1 hour of trading on my forex team.


Join us for free and sign up in our live chat room. http://www.jenkinsrm.com

Take profits here swing if you shorted earlier with me.



Results from today on GBP/JPY


Come learn with us. we are looking to build some more good traders. www.jenkinsrm.com

Cheers!

JRM GBPJPY Daytrade Recap





Join us live tomorrow for some trading!!

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/reg...99963046581507

GBP/JPY trade



Covered a piece on the 1min


came out of this long and went short




Todays results




Join my team of traders for results like these. www.jenkinsrm.com

Dollar v Yen is still coiling or basing below 104.5/105 pivot area. This is the longterm TMS and again I think the next trade is above this level and if we do get a move above 105 that should be enough of a breakout to get us back to potentially the 200 day. We shall see doing nothing at the moment.

GBPJPY is low within the 4H cycle if you are swing short makes sense to cover some here so you can resell the next bounce. I'm short and covered a piece here.

For the Euro Im a seller but wait for the 4 hour cycle to come up a little higher before adding to any core shorts on EURUSD.

GBPJPY results

I booked some gains here also swing. Still bullish staying core long.

ENd of Day FX Market Outlook



Come trade with us!

www.jenkinsrm.com