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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #56,061
  • Oct 7, 2016 11:33am Oct 7, 2016 11:33am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hmm, ic, would be interesting to find out what the real story is. for price to drop like that, cannot be simply stop cluster triggering can it? though the algos might have exacerbated it quite abit.
Lesson in liquidity.
What was it they saying about primary market makers?
Can markets survive without em?
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  • #56,062
  • Oct 7, 2016 11:42am Oct 7, 2016 11:42am
Quoting fti
{quote} https://toggl.com/programming-princess
i was a programmer and the comic made me
tks..

good to see you up here!
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #56,063
  • Edited 12:07pm Oct 7, 2016 11:43am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Lesson in liquidity. What was it they saying about primary market makers? Can markets survive without em? {image}
Hmm, they pretty much hands and legs of cb and also main participant of market, major liquidity provider, without em market can be so thin it scares investors and traders off till market dies off.

If no primary market makers, actually I seen once before on a demo account, unforgettable moment, the Ukraine crisis period, I see market got ask, no bid, that is 1 scary market
  • #56,064
  • Oct 7, 2016 11:53am Oct 7, 2016 11:53am
Quoting fti
{quote} how would you justify the risk calculation? on what model will you base the volatility factor on? you are just taking personal risk perference, thats it. if you a gambler, you would see it as calculated risk. if you was a banker, its a bloody gamble. if you eas a player. you just pray, someone's watching it. eeeer and i don't mean god. regards "About Market Knowledge:" a price has value. but a price without a name has no value, it has no counterparty to it. you can make me a sterling price. so but i cannot do you.where's the value? do you...
Hello Fti,

Thank you for your diligent reply. Have a nice week-end.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #56,065
  • Oct 7, 2016 1:11pm Oct 7, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Lesson in liquidity. What was it they saying about primary market makers? Can markets survive without em? {image}
FTI,
In such flash crash times, in your days it be crazy in the dealing room right.. these days i hear fx dealers are dying breed.. and algos and computer taking/taken over. do they still react the same way now as then?
I seen todays move, first move down, and the spring up, was about 2 odd min, 3min max. no more then 3min for sure. by 5min, you could tell it all slowed drastically, by 15min its done and dusted. how can a human move so quick?!
i track my first entry and second, it was at least 50 pip apart, and only reason i went in was because i saw the first bounce and i felt it was a decent price.. also have witness, i think 5 of these flash crash/massive move, in excess of 500pips, if anything, it felt very AOW.

rgds

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ok, im off to get some good sleep i hope... dont want to burnt my candle both ends too quick...
ciao all
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,066
  • Edited 3:25pm Oct 7, 2016 2:51pm | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} FTI, In such flash crash times, in your days it be crazy in the dealing room right.. these days i hear fx dealers are dying breed.. and algos and computer taking/taken over. do they still react the same way now as then? I seen todays move, first move down, and the spring up, was about 2 odd min, 3min max. no more then 3min for sure. by 5min, you could tell it all slowed drastically, by 15min its done and dusted. how can a human move so quick?! i track my first entry and second, it was at least 50 pip apart, and only reason i went in was...
no, when things happens in a flash, everybody watches and no one does anything in the market. By anything, i mean trade.
Everyone would of course be on the line speaking with respectable peeps chatting about, did you see that?
And every analyst would be trying to determine if whats happening is true or manipulation.

Do you think what happened have any impact on real traders?
The markets moved -700 pips down and up in flash with no underlying factors.
Tomorrow the cost of a house would still be the same in england. In fact to most people nothing happened.
Only those who got slaughtered because of margin call. To these something happened.

I don't know, i have not much respect for speed, if speed impeeds respectability. Something like this happens often then the markets may lose its respectability. If i don't respect the price, then i no trades it. thats reason why to me there's only 3 majors now. i don't want anything to do with swissy.

Before i place money with anyone, i need to know its respectable. Thats why we have credit ratings. if i do not respect the name. it no exist , as far as i am concerned. would you place depos with a criminal from jail?

If what you say is true. Then it would be important they bring back the dealers before they lose the whole market built over decades.
When markets air pockets big figs, without reason, just means lack liquidity.
in such system instability, is for gamblers.
i am not from the casino business.

Gambling is entertainment. Markets are not casinos.At least it should not be.

regards
  • #56,067
  • Oct 7, 2016 4:25pm Oct 7, 2016 4:25pm
I think theres people out there that only with the abilities of good chart reading and money managment make good money in forex. Of course they have experience too. It is also a matter of fear superation. Thats what is catchy on this thing and thus not everyone can do it... But everything can be achieved through training. The thing is that when it comes to investiment, most people have a money and time limit in what they can train on. And everybody knows that demo account is not the same thing. It is like driving with the tutor by your side. But then you will have to travel alone in the highway... Again... not every gramma or grampa can do it...
  • #56,068
  • Edited 7:57pm Oct 7, 2016 5:47pm | Edited 7:57pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQm8ZOPFnG4
nice. (hug)

regards

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  • #56,069
  • Edited Oct 8, 2016 12:43am Oct 7, 2016 9:54pm | Edited Oct 8, 2016 12:43am
Quoting fti
{quote} no, when things happens in a flash, everybody watches and no one does anything in the market. By anything, i mean trade. Everyone would of course be on the line speaking with respectable peeps chatting about, did you see that? And every analyst would be trying to determine if whats happening is true or manipulation. Do you think what happened have any impact on real traders? The markets moved -700 pips down and up in flash with no underlying factors. Tomorrow the cost of a house would still be the same in england. In fact to most people...

noted - thanks.

yes, thats what i was hoping too..

my that banking friend said was much cheaper to hire one guy, to watch over 3 programs then hire 3 guys to do 3 job. and that those that do work, do very little oldschool work.. but well, im not sure. just one guy i ask that told me these.. didnt poke around much for info

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...replace-humans
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ew-wall-street

lol, i notice the date of the 2 above article is in February, but 2 years apart.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,070
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:55pm Oct 7, 2016 9:55pm
Quoting fti
{quote} nice. (hug) regards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iobv_2O_1dI
good stuffs
(hug) thanks


rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,071
  • Edited 1:48am Oct 8, 2016 1:37am | Edited 1:48am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} noted - thanks. yes, thats what i was hoping too.. my that banking friend said was much cheaper to hire one guy, to watch over 3 programs then hire 3 guys to do 3 job. and that those that do work, do very little oldschool work.. but well, im not sure. just one guy i ask that told me these.. didnt poke around much for info https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...replace-humans https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ew-wall-street...
I hope they think twice about what they doing, robots can't replace humans, it may be their very downfall if they pursue that path. Last I heard some trying big data to replace analyst too. My guess is when that happen won't flash crash happen on a more frequent basis? Short term volatility range might exhibit a bivariate distribution, a huge cluster on small ranges, and a sizable cluster on huge std dev moves like the flash crash in 2010 and this few days. So something like nassim taleb's black swarn where they did not have enough information on how addition of these algos affect the entire market on crisis type situations where abnormal circumstances are in the market where the algorithm is not programmed to handle.
  • #56,072
  • Oct 8, 2016 3:24am Oct 8, 2016 3:24am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} I hope they think twice about what they doing, robots can't replace humans, it may be their very downfall if they pursue that path. Last I heard some trying big data to replace analyst too. My guess is when that happen won't flash crash happen on a more frequent basis? Short term volatility range might exhibit a bivariate distribution, a huge cluster on small ranges, and a sizable cluster on huge std dev moves like the flash crash in 2010 and this few days. So something like nassim taleb's black swarn where they did not have enough information...
from what he mention, it is already done and dusted years ago(spoke to him in 14).
And,
that was what i told him, fx market is OTC. how can you run a program that run based on a pre-defined formula, updated as time go.. for a market that is at the core of inter-country relationship and worse, to replace humans for it. And then, he mention that there is range and criteria for it, and thats why there is still a human watching over the program. it can run properly for 70% of time, thats fine. 30% the operator can handle. yea, he mention operator not trader.. lol

rgds

oh, he also said, thats why price tend to ping pong alot more these days and have random burst
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,073
  • Edited 4:11am Oct 8, 2016 3:43am | Edited 4:11am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} from what he mention, it is already done and dusted years ago(spoke to him in 14). And, that was what i told him, fx market is OTC. how can you run a program that run based on a pre-defined formula, updated as time go.. for a market that is at the core of inter-country relationship and worse, to replace humans for it. And then, he mention that there is range and criteria for it, and thats why there is still a human watching over the program. it can run properly for 70% of time, thats fine. 30% the operator can handle. yea, he mention operator...
hmm, thats some interesting critical information. if that is true, then when shit happens, the operator himself may not have time to sense, react and handle it, unless they have resting limits to handle such situations.

im also seeing prop firms going very quant too, many firms i saw their requirement, want programmers, and data scientist instead of actual traders or dealers who have been train the old school way, save for afew firms around, something i did not particularly agree with.

that sounds like mean reversion strategy, for range bound markets, 70% range bound, 30% market trend and thats where operator steps in?

hope they don't overdo it till it screws everyone up together.

would be interesting if we could develop countermeasures for such situation.
  • #56,074
  • Oct 8, 2016 3:44am Oct 8, 2016 3:44am
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there are already computers which want to "catch" other computers and discover they MO aka algorithm I think
  • #56,075
  • Oct 8, 2016 8:19am Oct 8, 2016 8:19am
Why does the euro/dollar price always fall during the last minute of trading in the us session?
  • #56,076
  • Edited 10:19am Oct 8, 2016 10:07am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hmm, thats some interesting critical information. if that is true, then when shit happens, the operator himself may not have time to sense, react and handle it, unless they have resting limits to handle such situations. im also seeing prop firms going very quant too, many firms i saw their requirement, want programmers, and data scientist instead of actual traders or dealers who have been train the old school way, save for afew firms around, something i did not particularly agree with. that sounds like mean reversion strategy, for range...
no idea about specific %, just hear from him that, as long as it works itself most of time, it fine. when it doesnt work, operator expected to step in.

yea its true, i hear the same qualification is favored.

rgds

yea, and that everything happens much faster due to that algo feeding nature


and my friend, i think i know what you thinking... hah
for us retail, i think this thread is more then sufficient... these algos etc, is not very much our cup of tea due to spread and comms IMO. and, lets not even go into computer specs ... maybe in future..i dont know
What FTI have presented, is.. genius and like having more a mentor every step and a room where whatever we read now, is like watching a movie from page 1, till now.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,077
  • Oct 8, 2016 10:08am Oct 8, 2016 10:08am
Quoting s189145
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQJNeQDDHA there are already computers which want to "catch" other computers and discover they MO aka algorithm I think
v nice share buddy. thanks
(Y)

rgds

i guess with these, the maths is always right, until proven wrong. market evolves
question is.. what can we quantified for ourselves..
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,078
  • Oct 8, 2016 11:11am Oct 8, 2016 11:11am
All alogorithm programs (as often mentioned in this thread) are mechanical systems by definition. It is thus absolute proof that mechanical systems do work: there are thousands of them working every day in many markets. So, mechanical systems do work perfectly. Is that correct?

And

Why does the euro/dollar price ALWAYS fall during the last minute of trading in the US session?

Thank you.
  • #56,079
  • Oct 8, 2016 11:35am Oct 8, 2016 11:35am
Quoting fti
{quote} Lesson in liquidity. What was it they saying about primary market makers? Can markets survive without em? {image}
no water, no life
no liquid, no trade
no oxygen, no life
no carbon dioxide, no life
but
no carbon dioxide, no food
ahh.. fact of life
as above so below


rgds

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you posted these many moons ago, just thought, i repost them, cause im listening, maybe we can listen together.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,080
  • Edited 11:55am Oct 8, 2016 11:39am | Edited 11:55am
what i know. whats happening is,
they no want skilled traders.
they mostly running robots algo to ahead customer orders which are programmed for arbitrage activities.behind china walls.
The focus is on fees and orders spreads.

If you ask me, i think they giving up the markets making.
Thats why now you have ecns and market making broking in retail.
Lately they had competition on that activities from HFT computers.
Which i think they used law to kill.

Anyways , market making was not profitable for all banks.
Only those that had the stars. but stars are expensive.
As banks, it was mandated to have market makers, esp those in tier 1.
service to their customers.
Maybe slowly they will have to give away their markets.
Could be board directives.

For you, you just have to keep polishing your skills, out run the markets.
and you quantify yourselfs financially independent/rich humans.

regards
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