My Notes, Observations & Some Trades

I noted that I do lots of research and analysis about forex market and always lost my studies. Also many lost trades have forgotten in the history without teaching something new... So, I decided to keep a journal. I hope it helps to improve my trading.

Yesterday I collected some statistics about trend bars. A bullish trend bar is simply a bar which has higher low and higher high with respect to previous bar. Bearish trend bar is just the opposite. After a bullish trend bar I expected to see a 1 or 2 bullish bars but what statistics say?

Trend Bar Statistics I found:

Period Analyzed: October 5, 1993 - August 23, 2016 (But data is more complete after 1999)

Market: GBPUSD
TF: 1h

Bearish Trend Bars Found: 34261
Bullish Trend Bars Found: 36449

Average Return of the next bar after bearish trend bar is positive (0.13 pips) where Average Return of the next bar after bullish trend bar is negative (-0.23 pips)!

Some other statistics of Bearish Trend Bars:

Up Wick Size/Total Size Ratio of Bearish Trend Bar


Bottom Wick Size/Total Size Ratio of Bearish Trend Bar


Total Size of Bearish Trend Bar / Total Size of Previous Bar


RSI (14) value of Bearish Trend Bar

Engulfing Pattern

Pattern Search: Bearish Engulfing
Time Period: 1993 - 2016 (Data is not complete before 1999)
Market: GBPUSD
Time Frame: 1h

Patterns Found: 5571
Average Next Bar Return: 0.33 pips
Average 5 Bars Return: 0.75 pips

Filters:

If pattern occurs after 50 bar new high (298 patterns/ 5.65% of all patterns)
Average 5 bars Return: -1.65 pips (51% of patterns have bearish return)

Nose Ratio of Engulfing Bar & Returns


Tail Ratio of Engulfing Bar & Returns


Previous Bar Total Size/Engulfing Bar Total Size Ratio & Returns

Shorted AUDCAD

More posts!

Looking to short the NZDCAD next week.

-HMSR

Some NN predictions