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The Big secret to trading success

  • #661
  • Sep 28, 2016 8:35am Sep 28, 2016 8:35am
Quoting Pipanator
small losses lead to a big win.
How you can manage losses if they happen anyway?
  • #662
  • Sep 28, 2016 8:37am Sep 28, 2016 8:37am
Quoting HeyYou
The big secret to trading success is secret. Otherwise it wouldn't be a secret.
  • #663
  • Sep 28, 2016 10:53am Sep 28, 2016 10:53am
Trading picked up for me once I understood the concept of what price really is, which is the combination of all the market participants choices. Of course there's more money in "big players" so you will have to think like one which isn't easy of course.

But knowing that steered me in the right direction. You have to think why price is going to a certain point and turning or continuing. Do you think big traders are using these fancy coded indicators? Probably not. I'm assuming it's very simple Support/Resistance, clearly defined S/R lines that leave no ambiguity that it is a Support and Resistance. I assume their charts are very clear.

Further, I believe price moves the most when it makes the most sense for most traders. What does this mean? Basically if I was to ask a trader using the 1 minute chart which direction he would trade and a trader using the 4 hour time frame which direction he would trade, they should be the same. This goes back to the concept of recognizing that the market is a collection of ideas, which also relates to "trading with the trend." Trading with the trend is not helpful by itself. It should be re-worded as "trading with the flow of the crowd." Meaning your trades should reflect the ideas of those scalping, and those trading higher time frames. They should not conflict with them. This requires patience but when you see the set-ups you will know you will be profitable. Specifically for me, this means looking at the 4 hour time frame S/R then buying or selling upon confirmation of a bounce off s/r in the smaller time frames. This confirmation is again, things that most traders can recognize: candle formations, overbought/oversold stochastics. You must keep things as simple and fundamental as possible because that is what moves the market. The big traders and most of the retail world does not run on the same system you use which probably uses 10 different signals. You have to speak the language that everyone understands or at least the language that the ones with the money understand and to me that is basic S/R, candle confirmation off the S/R level, and stochastics for confirmation (one of the earliest used indicators).

Also understand that "big money" likes to move price until it hits a major S/R or clearly defined S/R. This is why you often see price make sudden surges without stopping despite there being no news. They want price to move to these major S/R lines because they know there are many orders/stops to be filled at these points and they are a major source of liquidity. I can make a trade while it is going up, knowing it will go up another 20,30, or 40 pips because I see the next S/R, I see the next level price must reach, I see where the bank wants price to reach and I can ride that wave. Once it hits that S/R you wait for a candle confirming a reversal or continuation, and you can ride that wave again. Price just starts to make sense to you.

I learned this after a year and a half of searching. My first week of forex I made a lot of money, and all I did was look at the 4 hr candle and trade in that direction. After that I began complicating things and losing money. I then tried for so long so many different systems that were complex but made sense to me.

Until recently I went back to how I used to be, not simply looking at the four hr candle, but recognizing that the best trading is done when I'm sleeping. Meaning, being patient and looking for these set ups that "make sense" and then sleeping. Trading does not require thousands and thousands of hours of screen time. I find the more time I spend looking at the ticks the less profitable I am. You should be able to set up a chart with multiple time frames open, with S/R lines for all. Checking charts every half hour or hour during prime market times, avoid red news, find pairs that aren't stuck in a range between S/R lines, wait for a signal confirming theres a move and enter. TP at the next S/R. After a while of practicing and perfecting this you will find that your decisions flow with the market. Those random turns and spikes make sense to you. When I first started forex I ignored all the "fundamentals" of S/R, it could not be that easy.

Our view of trading is that we must fit into an image. The view of the trader is one that is frantically staring at hundreds of prices, and ticks, with 5 different screens while doing 7 calculations to determine where price will go. If you think that is what people who make money in this market are doing, you are mistaken. The most succesful traders I imagine, trade because compared to other fields it requries the least amount of work in order to make the most money. We would not be trading if it required as much work as becoming a doctor or engineer or any hard labor job. So I imagine the ones that are good at trading and succesful, both retail and bankwise, have managed to do this without much effort. I read on this forum, from a member that lived off of trading (and comfortably) opened his laptop twice a day and then spent the rest relaxing. Your view of the markets should not give you a headache.
  • #664
  • Sep 30, 2016 3:37pm Sep 30, 2016 3:37pm
Quoting rnsfrd
Trading picked up for me once I understood the concept of what price really is, which is the combination of all the market participants choices. Of course there's more money in "big players" so you will have to think like one which isn't easy of course. But knowing that steered me in the right direction. You have to think why price is going to a certain point and turning or continuing. Do you think big traders are using these fancy coded indicators? Probably not. I'm assuming it's very simple Support/Resistance, clearly defined S/R lines that leave...
Well said true in trading if you know what market. Is doing then you will earn money. Really Its true u don't need to sit for hours just place trade and relax even one need not require any indicator only chart is more than sufficient for refrence
IF U DONT KNOW DOES NOT MEAN IT DOES NOT EXIST
  • #665
  • Sep 30, 2016 5:29pm Sep 30, 2016 5:29pm
Quoting rnsfrd
Trading picked up for me once I understood the concept of what price really is, which is the combination of all the market participants choices. Of course there's more money in "big players" so you will have to think like one which isn't easy of course. But knowing that steered me in the right direction. You have to think why price is going to a certain point and turning or continuing. Do you think big traders are using these fancy coded indicators? Probably not. I'm assuming it's very simple Support/Resistance, clearly defined S/R lines that leave...
Thanks for putting into words what I have been attempting to practice for the past year or so
  • #666
  • Oct 1, 2016 7:40am Oct 1, 2016 7:40am
Quoting rnsfrd
Trading picked up for me once I understood the concept of what price really is, which is the combination of all the market participants choices. Of course there's more money in "big players" so you will have to think like one which isn't easy of course. But knowing that steered me in the right direction. You have to think why price is going to a certain point and turning or continuing. Do you think big traders are using these fancy coded indicators? Probably not. I'm assuming it's very simple Support/Resistance, clearly defined S/R lines that leave...
In less time frame market is more random then a bigger one .. (Open secret)...$$$$$
Trade fearless not careless...
  • #667
  • Oct 1, 2016 7:54pm Oct 1, 2016 7:54pm
Quoting rnsfrd
Do you think big traders are using these fancy coded indicators? Probably not. I'm assuming it's very simple Support/Resistance, clearly defined S/R lines that leave no ambiguity that it is a Support and Resistance. I assume their charts are very clear.
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No.
No.
Yes.
Daily charts.
Weekly high and low.
Weekly pivots.
Trade at the extremes with price.
Nothing fancy.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #668
  • Oct 1, 2016 11:07pm Oct 1, 2016 11:07pm
Quoting dkrock
In business, supply/demand is measured by sample size. In its simplest terms, it is how many products did I make? How many products did I sell? You can complicate it if your product is seasonal. In Forex, this equates to the market direction, buy/sell. Comparing the costs of producing your product against the profit made from sales determines the price of your product. If consumers will not pay the price, then you must reduce the costs of production. In Forex, this equates to your risk. A business collects data over a period of time and develops...
This thread has some of the most articulate advice on FF.....Cat kicked it off and several others have rose to the challenge and enhanced what he knows to be the simple truth about successful traders.....DKrock you have just raised the already very high bar
  • #669
  • Oct 2, 2016 1:56pm Oct 2, 2016 1:56pm
 
Attached Image
Trade fearless not careless...
  • #670
  • Edited 2:12pm Oct 3, 2016 12:33pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} {image} No. No. Yes. Daily charts. Weekly high and low. Weekly pivots. Trade at the extremes with price. Nothing fancy.
Hi TooSlow,

I took your post and actually tried to back-test your ideas. To me I tend to use time frames smaller than the daily because I like to record daily profit, however even I think that this is too much trading and screen time. I am always trying to pinpoint where the action is in terms of price. Where all the volume comes in. While using the one hour and 4 hour charts are fine most of the time, I find that while profitable, it takes time to be profitable. Meaning even if you trade higher time frame S/R with candle confirmation, stochs etc, price will retrace and go up/down before you see large profits.

As I explained before, price will be driven up to these levels before sharply turning, the goal is of course is to figure out where these turns and price extremes are. I am most interested in figuring these points out but I do believe you have brought me closer to discovering that.

I simply applied a weekly pivot indicator to the daily chart as you did as well as a fractal S/R indicator. If you go back-test you can pick out these price surges that drive price up to these weekly S/R, HI/Low, and pivot points. To better see this I applied the BetterVolume Indicator which paints a red/white bar where there are abnormal amounts of volume (note that volume in forex isn't true volume, just tick data, however there is a correlation between tick data and overall volume). The volume indicator is best on the 15 minute time frame as that time frame usually shows the abnormal price surges the best in my opinion. I really do like what I saw. Simple Hi/Low S/R, Pivot Points and a volume indicator showed set-ups that returned lots of $$$ within minutes to an hour.

Just look at the screenshots. All of those levels are plotted by an AutoPivot indicator for the weekly time frame. I then moved to the 15 minute time frame to look for price and volume surges and as you can see it is very profitable. But this goes back to what I was saying before, that trading itself is very simple. You should be planning more than trading, trying to figure out these points where money is made, and using tools to confirm your theory.

While the auto pivot may not calculate these prices perfectly, it may be off by 10 or 20 pips, I can be certain that if I see price surge towards these levels (a weekly S/R, Hi/Lo, Pivot Point) then profit is almost guaranteed, and not small profits either.

I used to plan days to trade where there wasn't red news, used to care about the best trading conditions and hours to trade. Trade everyday to maximize profits. Thoughts like "If I can make 10 pips a day I will be rich in a year." You cannot stress yourself out around the market. Don't work around the market, just wait for these set ups, let everything come to you. I used to think, higher time frames are for people that can absorb 100-200 pip stop losses, I don't want to do that. That is wrong. Higher time frames don't mean you must absorb larger stops necessarily if you can pinpoint where price is turning. Plot your pivot points, S/R lines etc, set an alert for when price is 10-20 pips away from this point, and then look to see if volume spikes and jump in once you see price turning. So simple, would take less than an hour of screen time a week, and you could maximize profits. But most will ignore this, because it's too simple.
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  • #671
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:32pm Oct 3, 2016 3:32pm
 
Attached Image
Trade fearless not careless...
  • #672
  • Oct 5, 2016 7:41am Oct 5, 2016 7:41am
we read all things but follow only some steps thats why we get loss.
  • #673
  • Oct 5, 2016 11:53am Oct 5, 2016 11:53am
Trading with the trend. It is quite simple actually. You can use all sort of indicators and oscillators or even naked chart. Me myself using naked chart. Use multiple timeframes. I use 4, weekly, daily, h4 and h1. Or you can only use two if you wanted to.

The idea is to find the trend in bigger timeframe and trade the trend using the smaller timeframe. It is like swimming in the trend. Bigger timeframe role is to provide bias or trend and smaller one is use for entry
I am using 4 timeframes so i can trade against the big trend but using the small trend as my bias. It is quite dangerous but in that case, my position is usually 1/5 or 1/10 of my usual position.

Here is the example in the most simple way.
Use daily and h1 timeframe.
Use 21 or 24 simple moving average on both daily and h1 chart.
This is not moving average crosses.

The idea here is to use daily as your bias. If the price above MA take long only, the same goes with short.
Take the trade on h1 timeframe as your entry.

If you want to simplify this, your moving average on h1 should be adjusted. Lets say we use 24MA on daily, on h1, the MA is, 24candles daily x 24 candles h1 = 576 so, SMA 576 and 24 on a single h1 chart. This one is MA crosses. 576 represent 24SMA plotted on daily tf. This is the simplest system in trend following.

Or you could use peter crown's dibs method. His method is trend following system.
Why? The idea is the same. Daily determines your bias, and h1 is use for entry.
If the price is up yesterday, today we go long on h1 breakout. Vise versa for short.

If you're trading using channel or trendlines, it is stille the same thing. Use big timeframe as your bias and small timeframe ans your entry. You miht also want to look for double top double bottom, breakout, candle reversal, etc etc to improve your trading.

If you want to trade even better, try naked chart and price action but that is quite challenging. Happy trading
  • #674
  • Oct 5, 2016 5:52pm Oct 5, 2016 5:52pm
Hi RNSFRD

Very nice post..if you could be so kind to share your Better Volume and auto pivot indys

Thanks

MV
" Liver alone,,,Cheese my Seester "
  • #675
  • Oct 5, 2016 6:45pm Oct 5, 2016 6:45pm
Quoting cat
With that little bit of gardening done, here it is , the secret to trading success, and you guessed it, it's trading with the trend in your favour. No secret right? But how many people actually do it? More to the point, how many people actually know how to do it? Very few. The reason - because it's far easier to try and pick a top or a bottom, or counter-trend trade, than it is to wait patiently for a pullback, identify the point at which the price is about to rejoin the overall momentum, and pull the trigger....
after 9 years this is what you are discovering...
Better have deep account for DD because you will be tossed around in corrections or get stopped out repeatedly.I am just baffled all the crap is being shared here as wisdom.

Where is the trend chart below? Are you whiling to accumulate 200pip DD? Considering forex is 70%ranging saying your success depends on 30% trend probability is not an EDGE more like recipe for disaster.
Good luck
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #676
  • Oct 5, 2016 7:14pm Oct 5, 2016 7:14pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} after 9 years this is what you are discovering... Better have deep account for DD because you will be tossed around in corrections or get stopped out repeatedly.I am just baffled all the crap is being shared here as wisdom. Where is the trend chart below? Are you whiling to accumulate 200pip DD? Considering forex is 70%ranging saying your success depends on 30% trend probability is not an EDGE more like recipe for disaster. Good luck
TWEE, revoke my membership.
  • #677
  • Oct 5, 2016 7:49pm Oct 5, 2016 7:49pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} after 9 years this is what you are discovering... Better have deep account for DD because you will be tossed around in corrections or get stopped out repeatedly.I am just baffled all the crap is being shared here as wisdom. Where is the trend chart below? Are you whiling to accumulate 200pip DD? Considering forex is 70%ranging saying your success depends on 30% trend probability is not an EDGE more like recipe for disaster. Good luck {image}
"Where is the trend chart below?".....
............Not my favorite pair for scalping .....i prefer the Dax30. But if I had to render an opinion this pair has trended north to resistance......again not a great pair for scalping....
Here`s a shot of the dax 4h......LL/LH for now creating nice waves to be scalped in either direction.....take this image down to a LTF.....look for LL/LH/HL/HH.....when the market shakers take it on a run pull out your pips from the easy middle...Try and stay out during consolidations ....this is not easy nor can it be taught. Its seat of the pants PA trading..... For me it works....to each his own
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  • #678
  • Oct 6, 2016 3:38am Oct 6, 2016 3:38am
Quoting Davit
{quote} after 9 years this is what you are discovering... Better have deep account for DD because you will be tossed around in corrections or get stopped out repeatedly.I am just baffled all the crap is being shared here as wisdom. Where is the trend chart below? Are you whiling to accumulate 200pip DD? Considering forex is 70%ranging saying your success depends on 30% trend probability is not an EDGE more like recipe for disaster. Good luck {image}
Those who followed the thread whilst I was contributing to it saw the trend chart before I took it down. My message was clear, trade with momentum on your side. You may think yourself above and beyond such advice as is apparent by your obvious large ego, but the majority of traders clearly are not, and so this thread was meant for the likes of those who seek help, not for the likes of you who like to inflate themselves into something they are not.

Now unless you can offer something constructive to this thread apart from merely criticizing someone else. I suggest you stay away from it.
  • #679
  • Oct 6, 2016 4:44am Oct 6, 2016 4:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} after 9 years this is what you are discovering... Better have deep account for DD because you will be tossed around in corrections or get stopped out repeatedly.I am just baffled all the crap is being shared here as wisdom. Where is the trend chart below? Are you whiling to accumulate 200pip DD? Considering forex is 70%ranging saying your success depends on 30% trend probability is not an EDGE more like recipe for disaster. Good luck {image}
I wonder how people come up with statistics like that.
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #680
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:25am Oct 6, 2016 8:25am
Quoting BBalazs
{quote} I wonder how people come up with statistics like that.
Well I'll tell you how Davit comes up with a statistic like that, he makes it up. In reality, it is not accurate or indeed possible to put a statistic on price movement unless you refer to a specific time frame. So for example someone who trades off an hourly chart may only have a trending market once a week, whereas someone who trades off of a 1minute time frame or less will experience multiple trends in any one day. If he had read this thread properly, he would have seen that I do not talk about trends, I talk about momentum, which means simply entering trades with momentum on your side after the price has pulled back. Most people, as I tried to emphasize in this thread, do not do this, they try to pick tops and bottoms and invariably end up getting burned because it is much more difficult to accurately enter a reversal than it is to trade a continuation, and anyone who knows how to trade will confirm this.
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