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The Swamp

  • #9,481
  • Oct 5, 2016 12:50am Oct 5, 2016 12:50am
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USDJPY since jan 2016 rejection from moving average it has made new lows.
But last 2 rejection it has had higher lows for trend to change need to clear 104.32 and then 107 49 which is last quarterly high.
I believe Gator has touching 113.00 before 68.00
  • #9,482
  • Oct 5, 2016 2:34am Oct 5, 2016 2:34am
Quoting edyraper
Couple of big targets/supports at 1.25xx area. atm 2746. One can wait for a decent bounce on lower tfs and get in at retracement. looking for some bids at 1.2704/1.2687. atm low is 2739 1.39 still norm, 1.58 still norm and wanted... $GBPUSD
little bounce here on $GBPUSD atm 2720 one can book some and bb it.
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  • #9,483
  • Oct 5, 2016 3:42am Oct 5, 2016 3:42am
silver
monthly's fib 23.6 ~17.90 seems for me an attractive level for going one more long longer term with more investments.
expected targets: ~24.5 (2008.10.01 - 2011.04.01, fib 38.2) & ~27.75 (2011.04.01 - 2015.12.01, fib 38.2)
actual: 17.91

I remain bullish on the prospects for silver as a long-term play on precious metal prices although there is a prodigious glut of paper contracts. It’s estimated that for every ounce of physical silver, there are 250 ounces of paper silver. This has created a virtual supply of silver without putting pressure on the physical silver market, ...thereby making silver prices highly volatile and keeping them artificially depressed.
  • #9,484
  • Oct 5, 2016 3:49am Oct 5, 2016 3:49am
Quoting Forexcube
. It’s estimated that for every ounce of physical silver, there are 250 ounces of paper silver. This has created a virtual supply of silver without putting pressure on the physical silver market, ...thereby making silver prices highly volatile and keeping them artificially depressed.
Fiat commodities
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #9,485
  • Oct 5, 2016 7:34am Oct 5, 2016 7:34am
Short EG 8815. Risk 30
  • #9,486
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:11am Oct 5, 2016 8:11am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} little bounce here on $GBPUSD atm 2720 one can book some and bb it. {image}
missed it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,487
  • Edited 8:34am Oct 5, 2016 8:16am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} about 14 months back, brent indicated a dead cat to 56.xx minimal, before heading toward a 14$ target. wti i assume will be in a similar pattern less than 56. the spread on wti comparable to brent used to be about !0$ less. i know that spread has tightened. not sure where wti will go. i do think brent 56.x will happen. hopefully 1.2047 will be there at that time. usd/cad at this point is not agreeing. the closes on quarter, month, week are higher. that is not a bearish indication usd/cad wise. many tops have the same characteristics.
oil rising, i did expect the cad to rise forcing usd/cad lower. just the opposite happened. i did get stopped 3175 one. i missed a new entry 3219.. now if 3219 would be triggered, it may open 326x. as a small low rate target like 3219 is/was. it did close below 3189 last h.. -3174 better.
admittedly the closes month week on u/cad were bullish as was eu.. gu was bearish.. in the st 3197 u/cad is a risky short with 3219 missed..
on oil is just the opposite with 56 brent normal before a drop, and the st is not retracing.. nfp weeks are good at opposite pumps or dumps.
hurricane near gulf. but not expected to hurt rigs
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,488
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:17am Oct 5, 2016 8:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} oil rising, i did expect the cad to rise forcing usd/cad lower. just the opposite happened. {image}
contra indicator
  • #9,489
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:36am Oct 5, 2016 8:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} oil rising, i did expect the cad to rise forcing usd/cad lower. just the opposite happened. i did get stopped 3175 one. i missed a new entry 3219.. now if 3219 would be triggered, it may open 326x. as a small low rate target like 3219 is/was. it did close below 3189 last h.. -3174 better. admittedly the closes month week on u/cad were bullish as was eu.. gu was bearish.. in the st 3197 u/cad is a risky short with 3219 missed.. on oil is just the opposite with 56 brent normal before a drop, and the st is not retracing.. nfp weeks are good...
FF must have changed again.. i can no longer post a chart w/o a reply
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,490
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:38am Oct 5, 2016 8:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} missed it
EG, GA, GJ found some S/Rs ... I hope GU will do so.

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} FF must have changed again.. i can no longer post a chart w/o a reply {image}
I have no problem, using Safari and Chrome.
  • #9,491
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:44am Oct 5, 2016 8:44am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} contra indicator
i was baffled that u/c closed higher on the month end.. that 56 brent target was made before congress allowed u.s. oil exports. the spread between brent and crude was 10ish bucks. now it's 1ish $ +.. i dont know what one to use. a year ago 56 oil would have been 46 wti (with 10$ spread).. between the 2 is 51.. is 51 the old brent 56 smoothed? should i use 51$ in place of 56? i don't know..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,492
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:49am Oct 5, 2016 8:49am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} EG, GA, GJ found some S/Rs ... I hope GU will do so. {quote} I have no problem, using Safari and Chrome.
chrome here with win 10,, it worked last time i tried until today..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,493
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:54am Oct 5, 2016 8:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} oil rising, i did expect the cad to rise forcing usd/cad lower. just the opposite happened. i did get stopped 3175 one. i missed a new entry 3219.. now if 3219 would be triggered, it may open 326x. as a small low rate target like 3219 is/was. it did close below 3189 last h.. -3174 better. admittedly the closes month week on u/cad were bullish as was eu.. gu was bearish.. in the st 3197 u/cad is a risky short with 3219 missed.. on oil is just the opposite with 56 brent normal before a drop, and the st is not retracing.. nfp weeks are good...
it made 3197.. i did get a short.. i had to go smaller because my stop was widened. many times on nfp week its best to see where the pump or dump takes a pair. if the news agrees, a lot is priced in.. if the news disappoints. the priced in, unravels.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,494
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:02am Oct 5, 2016 9:02am
Massive US number..
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #9,495
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:11am Oct 5, 2016 9:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i was baffled that u/c closed higher on the month end.. that 56 brent target was made before congress allowed u.s. oil exports. the spread between brent and crude was 10ish bucks. now it's 1ish $ +.. i dont know what one to use. a year ago 56 oil would have been 46 wti (with 10$ spread).. between the 2 is 51.. is 51 the old brent 56 smoothed? should i use 51$ in place of 56? i don't know..

great reasoning , hadn't thought about the spread change before , when I have read your analise .

looking forward to seeing what you choose
  • #9,496
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:15am Oct 5, 2016 9:15am
Do you have uj gapped also ? 10ish pips ?
  • #9,497
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:18am Oct 5, 2016 9:18am
i closed my usd/cad trade. colloecting uj longs toward 114
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,498
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:19am Oct 5, 2016 9:19am
Quoting edyraper
Do you have uj gapped also ? 10ish pips ?
3 ticks
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #9,499
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:26am Oct 5, 2016 9:26am
Quoting nutts
{quote} great reasoning , hadn't thought about the spread change before , when I have read your analise . looking forward to seeing what you choose
brent 56 was a anticipated dead cat before 14.x target.. is today's brent 51.x the same at brent 56 before congress opened oil exports. i don't know. i do know the u/cad is weighted toward oil. and to me the u/cad was bullish close wise month week. i wanted to ignore what the cad higher closes were saying in favor of 56 brent. that 10 spread change has me rethinking. i have no real concrete view. the information is not in agreement
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,500
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:29am Oct 5, 2016 9:29am
Quoting KiNgEdwarD
{quote} 3 ticks
Thanks.
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