Trading Institutional Order Flow

Hello everyone.

1 would like to discuss a topic that has recently come to the fore in my conversations with various traders over the last so many years...that of having and committing to a system, a process and a set of habits.

This is pretty much something that all traders, will have to make a conscious decision to do at some point in this journey called trading, that is, if he/she wants to stand any chance of success.

i would like to look at it from the angle of viewing trading as a performance sport, say, a boxing match. I like boxing.

Now, let us imagine a scenario where one side wakes up on the day of the fight, puts on his gloves and gets in the ring ready to fight having nothing but his self belief that he will knock his opponent out at some point during the fight.

He has not done any pre-match preparation. He finds it too tedious and boring.
He has no team around him, they cost too much money.
He knows nothing about his opponent, is he a south paw?, is he strong?, what is his reach?, what type of boxer is he?, does he have a glass jaw? Nothing - he finds all that information really useless
All he knows and believes is that he is good at boxing and on a good day can beat anyone.

Now compare this boxer to his opponent.

His opponent has kept a small dossier on our first trader.
He knows our first trader is keen for a pay day and is not really keen on staying for 12 rounds in a match - so he will be patient
He knows our first trader is aggressive and so can be easily agitated and provoked - so he will irritate him
He knows our first trader does not have a team with him - so he will isolate him.
This trader knows his own track record - he knows he tends to knock most people out within 6 rounds
He knows to protect his face because he has a glass jaw but his body is strong. So he knows his own strengths

Now, I ask, if you were a betting man or woman, who would you put your money on?

I hope you get my drift.

best wishes

Hello everyone.
Another day trade for the short term traders.

First, the small loss i took earlier in the NQ (Nasdaq 100 index). Yes, I do take losses

Then the second trade in the S&P500. More than made up for the loss.

Small losses, big wins...the stage i want to remain at as a trader (compared to big losses, no wins; big losses, small wins; small losses, small wins)

best wishes

Hello everyone.

A conversation yesterday with a friend going through a rough patch trading S.A.D.
We all go through rough periods and draw-down periods as traders, there's no getting away from it.
How we handle these rough patches is extremely important.

Many give up on their system and go seeking the Holy grail.
They lose confidence and blame the system or method.
From what i have seen, it is usually never the method but more the trader.

Thanks to my friend for allowing me to record this session. Big up Ishy!

best wishes

Hello everyone.
Hope you are all well and trading well.

If i could, I would like to discuss with you all trading as a business enterprise
In particular, I would like to look at the topic from the angle of the life blood of every business..Profit margin.

As we all know, a business that does not make profit will probably struggle to grow or worse, eventually fail.

Now, for those of you who are business people, you will know and confirm that you get several "deals" put to your business and it is up to you to decide whether or not this deal is worth your while.

What does a business owner consider before deciding whether a deal is worth it or not?
When i have spoken with friends who are business owners, the one most important thing they consider is whether or not they can potentially make money from the deal, in other words, is there "potential" profit to be made for them, given the expenses that will be incurred if they take the deal.
They often call this "margin"

So basically, putting it into schematics, what the business owner considers is this question,

Is Potential expenses - Potential profit = Gain ?

Deal 1: If i spend £5 with the potential to make £3, is that worth it for my business?

Deal 2: If i spend £5 with the potential to make £10. is that worth it for my business?

Deal 2 obviously has a higher potential risk to reward ratio for the business but in reality the business owner may actually decline to take this deal if he thinks he can get a better one doing something else.
So it is not a given that because the R:R is higher the deal will automatically be accepted.

Since Trading is a business, the trader must decide for himself/herself what deals they are willing to take and what they will decline.

This in trading is referred to as Profit margin.

A rule of thumb I use is "No profit margin, no trade".

I have defined "profit margin" at a figure that is of my own choosing and this will be different from trader to trader.

What deals are you prepared to take trader?

best wishes

Hello! First I want to say thanks to Akt for spreading his knowledge. I noticed that I was trading some aspects of S.A.D. already in my own trading style. Now I want to get deeper into the specifics of this method.

Yesterday was a awful tradig day for me.(3.8 % loss) I had three losers in a row. One of them was a very solid setup I thought on the USDJPY.
Now I noticed, that it was already the 3rd big sell of a level, if my analysis is correct. So I suspect that's the reason for the loss. Or does some experienced trader have another oppinion? (I could also come up with multiple TimeFrame analysis if necessary)

https://charts.mql5.com/12/714/usdjpy-h4-darwinex.png


Kind Regard

Target has been reached.

Nice one!

So as I see it, you didn't give importance to the previous low because the buyer presence was already depleted indicated by a lower low and the lower high before your entry?

Hello KaQing. Good to meet you.

Yes, a M.T.F analysis would be useful.
It is not really possible to decipher possible reasons why a trade worked based just on the entry timeframe.

best wishes

Wow!.
Good job Mr.Phibo.
The patience you showed in staying with the trade is commendable.


best wishes

Sold EURUSD, reached my profit.

Hi, I'm just looking for daily entry with weekly trend. I've attached weekly chart. What is more: Thanks to brexit, this was the closest solid demand zone.

Thank you

AKT
Just to let you know that this methodology work
i took the AudJpy @ 78.51 & drove down the price till 78.237
am glad to inform you my account is now double
I really appreciate God. and you guys that since 2007 i can have a taste of FOREX
Thank you AKT

Hello Lade.

Well done to you sir.
I am not sure why you are thanking me though, you are the one doing the hard work.
Enjoy the fruits of your labor.

best wishes

Hello everyone.

The AUD/JPY trade discussion from very early this morning as it happened.
I could show the conversation but not sure that is necessary.

best wishes

on the daily is just a pinbar. but on the h1 and m30 there are new demand levels as I see it. another possible reason for the failed trade?

Here is an analysis for the DXY (Dollar Index). After the large drop, prices seemed to retrace back into the zone and more short orders seemed to have been filled, and also, the first demand zone is completely used up, as there was a candle that went all the way through, so it could possibly go to the 2nd demand zone.

So if I understand this strategy correctly:

We buy/sell at areas at which the beginning of an impulsive move took place.
The SAD areas get invalidated if there was a already a second buy or sell at that area, or if the area got broken by price.
If the movement to the areas creates new supply/demand zones, which give us a bad risk/reward ratio, then we want to avoid these setups. In explanation, a move should be clear with as few consolidations as possible? (consolidations ~ rally, base, rally)

I'm waiting for shorts on this one.

What a hawk eye Akt, nice catch