GBP/CHF signal
From GMT 07:10 28/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 28/09/2016
Buy at 1.26500
Take profit at 1.27000
Stop loss at 1.26200
From GMT 07:10 28/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 28/09/2016
Buy at 1.26500
Take profit at 1.27000
Stop loss at 1.26200
dx and ex daily and EU daily 3 replies
Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies
technical analysis -or- fundamental analysis 327 replies
future technical analysis, or spot analysis 4 replies
GBP/USD daily pip movement vs. EUR/USD daily pip movement 3 replies
Daily Report on September 28, 2016
Crude prices slumped on Wednesday as investor worries were reignited over no agreement being reached regarding an output cap or a new output ceiling between oil producers at the informal meeting between major producers in Algiers, that ends later today. News that Iran rejected an offer from Saudi Arabia to limit its oil output in exchange for Riyadh cutting supply outweighed data from API which showed a surprise draw-down in U.S. crude stocks.
The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude oil stocks dropped by 752,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 23rd, to 506.4 million barrels, compared to analyst estimates for a 2.8 million-barrel build.
In an interview at his bank's headquarters on Tuesday, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams stated that the Fed can raise interest rates without restraining the U.S. economic recovery, and that the central bank risks causing more harm by keeping rates too low for too long. "There are risks to pushing things too far”, he said.
In its monthly report on Tuesday, market research group the Conference Board indicated that U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped in September to a more than nine-year high. The gauge of consumer confidence surprisingly increased to 104.1 this month from a reading of 101.8 in August. This month’s reading was its highest level since August 2007.
Meanwhile, China's economy is expected to grow at an annual pace of 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter this year, the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said. CASS also forecast an overall growth of 6.7 percent for the full year, which was in line with the government's own full-year forecasts of 6.5-7 percent growth.
Technicals
EURUSD
Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
EURUSD fell off from over one-week highs at 1.12785 and is sliding back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.11891. As can be seen from the price chart, the price has broken out of the recently formed ascending trading range and at the same time moved past the MA50. The support at the 23.6% level is within sight but is much likely to be broken through, especially with a market that has already entered the bearish territory.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.11890, Take profit at 1.11500, Stop loss at 1.12200
USDCAD
Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
USDCAD has been swinging between gains and losses around the major level 1.32000 since the start of this week. In general, the USDCAD market remains in a bullish setup with the RSI currently above the 50 line while the two moving averages are placed below the price action and supporting the up moves.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.32200, Take profit 1.32800, Stop loss at 1.31400
GBPAUD
Fig: GBPAUD H4 Technical Chart
The British Pound is steadily losing ground again the Australian dollar but the pace of declines is becoming slower. However, sellers are expected to continue to overwhelm the market as the stochastic chart has not shown any sign of a pullback yet. Both MA's are placed above the price action which is creating further overhead pressure for the market. In the event of a continual downfall, the support at 1.68700 is within the sight and likely to be tested.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.69300, Take profit at 1.68700, Stop loss at 1.70000
WTI
Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
U.S light, sweet crude has been swinging back and forth between the support at 44.50 and the resistance created by the trendline connecting higher highs since August 19. The price bounced back again after hitting the support line but is heading downwards back to this handle and is expected to make a breakout as the two MAs have converged above the price action. The Relative Strength Index which is below 50 also confirmed a bearish tone in the market.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 44.50, Take profit at 43.85, Stop loss at 45.10
SILVER
Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver seems to be completing the double top pattern after reversing lower from the two-week high at 20.046. The price is around the neck level and may fall deeper as the short-term MA20 has penetrated the long-term MA50 from above. Additionally, ADX has soared higher to a level of 39.22, suggesting further declines.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 19.960, Take profit 18.765, Stop loss at 19.265.
NASDAQ
Fig: NASDAQ H4 Technical Chart
In general, the Nasdaq 100 index has been in an uptrend. The price has never fallen below the short-term MA20 or the long-term MA50 since mid-September, and is heading for the record high at 4894.81 created last Thursday. The index is anticipated to retest this level but it still seems uncertain whether the price can set a new record as the market has remained close to or within the overbought territory. A pullback may be expected.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 4875.00, Take profit at 4894.81, Stop loss at 4840.00
https://capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-co...ort_footer.jpgDaily Report on September 29, 2016
Daily Report on September 30, 2016
Global stocks tumbled on the last trading day of September, denting quarterly gains as bank stocks led losses on worries over Germany's largest lender Deutsche Bank. Most Asian indexes receded while European benchmarks opened lower on Friday.
Deutsche Bank shares hit a new record low, shedding nearly 7% following news that about 10 hedge funds doing business with Deutsche Bank have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week. Those are among the biggest clients of the bank, including Izzy Englander’s $34 billion Millennium Partners, and the $14 billion Capula Investment Management.
According to data released by the Federal Statistical Office Destatis, on Friday, German retail sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, slipped by 0.4% in August from the previous month. However, sales volume adjusted for inflation were still sharply higher than in August 2015 thanks to an extra day of sale.
The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.4 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, compared with a prior estimate of 1.1 percent, Commerce Department figures showed on Thursday. The U.S gross domestic product rose by more than the 1.1% growth rate expected. GDP growth was helped by household consumption which made up for tepid business investment and lackluster demand from overseas. Consumer spending is expected to continue to drive growth in the third quarter, considering recently robust hiring and nascent wage gains.
Technicals
AUDUSD
Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
AUDUSD has fallen out of the support at 0.76140 which coincides with the 23.6% retracement level. The pair has broken below the long-term MA50, which suggests further down moves after the short-term MA20 had been crossed over. Long lower shadows in the current and recent candles show that buyers are buying dips, but this bullish force is anticipated to weaken once the pair hits the 23.6% level again.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 0.76140, Take profit at 0.75650, Stop loss at 0.76400
EURUSD
Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
Euro fell to a one-week trough against the USD. The pair lost more than 50 pips from the resistance at 1.12200, after a period of time swinging back and forth around this level. The steep decline brought the currency pair below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.11891. The break lower continues to keep the market in bearish territory, as the price action has broken below both the MA's which are now placed above the price action.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.11750, Take profit at 1.11500, Stop loss at 1.12000
EURCAD
Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart
EURCAD resumed its downtrend after failing at the resistance zone marked by the two moving averages near the 1.47500 level. Long upper shadows of the recent candles indicate a strong bearish force that has restrained the pair from surging higher. Since RSI is below 50, sellers are foreseen to continue to drive the market lower. The near-term target is at the 23.6% support at 1.46334.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.47050, Take profit at 1.46334, Stop loss at 1.47800
SILVER
Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver bounced back from the support at 18.960 again. After having moved past the 20-period MA, the metal is up against the next level of resistance that is the 50-period moving average at 19.265 , which may be a tough zone to break through. As can be seen from the stochastics, both %K line and %D line have surpassed the average level and are heading upwards. A breakout beyond the 23.6% level is expected.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 19.370, Take profit at 19.630, Stop loss at 19.000
Natural gas
Fig: Natural gas H4 Technical Chart
Natural gas bounced back from the major support level at 2.935 after dropping more than 7% from the highest at 3.163 since mid-May, 2015. The steady downtrend has sent the market into the oversold zone which has led to some corrective moves. With the MA20 penetrating the MA50 from above, the commodity is expected to resume its slide and break below the current support zone.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 2.930, Take profit at 2.875, Stop loss at 3.000
FTSE
Fig: FTSE H4 Technical Chart
U.K’s FTSE 100 index created a small gap down on the open today and slid to as low as 6810.00 before rebounding to cover the gap. In spite of recent up-moves, the stochastic index keeps receding coupled with a large distance between the %K line and the %D line. Adding to the signals indicating further downside, the parabolic sar band has just changed its direction and has crossed above the price action.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 6880.00, Take profit at 6810.00, Stop loss at 6920.00
Daily Report on October 03, 2016
Asian stocks climbed on Monday as risk sentiment was boosted by easing of concerns about Deutsche Bank AG’s finances after the lender had been reported to negotiate a much lower settlement with the U.S Department of Justice than the initial claim. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched 0.8% percent higher following its best quarterly performance since early 2012.
Brexit angst continued to weigh on the British Pound. The Sterling created a wide gap down on the opening after British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday that she would trigger the process of negotiating the UK's exit from the EU by the end of March. The pair GBPUSD hit the lowest since August 16 at $1.29162 in early Asian trading in thin liquidity.
The Bank of Japan released its tankan survey of business sentiment, early on Monday. The survey indicated that large Japanese manufacturer sentiment remained flat in the past three months while non-manufacturing business sentiment slipped to its lowest in nearly two years. The gauge for confidence among big manufacturers stood at plus 6 in September, unchanged from three months ago. The index missed a median market forecast of plus 7.
Sentiment among large companies in the service sector hit the lowest level since December 2014 at plus 18, falling for three straight quarters as a result of typhoons and a slowdown in spending by foreign tourists stemming from a strong yen.
However, Japanese firms' appetite for capital spending remained resilient. Big firms plan to raise capital spending by 6.3 percent for this fiscal year, from year-before levels, basing their business plans on the assumption that the dollar would average 107.92 yen for the fiscal year through March 2017, down from 111.41 yen forecast three months ago.
Markets in China, Australia, Germany, Malaysia and South Korea are shut due to local holidays on Monday.
Technicals
USDJPY
Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart
USDJPY has been moving in a thin range since it breached the resistance at 101.200 as the pair is facing strong resistance from the descending trendline connecting lower highs since the start of September. The long upper shadow of recent candles indicates attempts by buyers to push the price higher but sellers have jumped in every time and snapped any rally. With the %K line having crossed over the %D line from above, the pair may fall back below the 101.200 level.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 101.150, take profit at 100.850, stop loss at 101.450
NZDUSD
Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart
NZDUSD has been moving sideways to lower since a steep slide on September 22. The pair is moving in the range between the support at 0.72200 and the resistance at 0.72900. As can be seen on the chart, lower lows and lower highs are being formed, indicating strengthening bears. Stochastic lines pointing down are consolidating the downtrend. The price action has broken below both the MA's which are now placed above the price action and adding further downside momentum.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 0.72500, take profit at 0.72200, stop loss at 0.72900
CADJPY
Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart
CADJPY has been on a rise since it rebounded from over four-year lows at 75.384. The two moving averages which acted as resistance through most of September have turned into dynamic supports that supported prices to reverse higher last Friday. The short-term MA20 has converged with the long-term MA50 from below, suggesting further up moves.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 77.350, take profit at 77.825, stop loss at 77.000
GOLD
Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Gold has been trading sideways under the 23.6% retracement level at 1319.40 since it broke below this level on Friday. The yellow metal failed to surge above this handle in early Asian trading hours and had to retreat and head down towards the multi-month lows at 1302.00 recorded at the start of September. With the two MAs placed above the price action and RSI remaining below 50, Gold is expected to fall deeper.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1314.00, take profit at 1308.90, stop loss at 1320.00
WTI
Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
U.S crude prices seemed to resume the uptrend after a brief correction from one-month highs at 48.30. The wide gap between the short-term and long-term moving averages is widening, suggesting a strong uptrend, which has pushed the market to near the overbought zone. In the event of a continual up-move, the commodity is expected to pull back after hitting the resistance at 48.30.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 48.30, take profit at 47.75, stop loss at 48.60
EURO50
Fig: EURO 50 H4 Technical Chart
Euro Stoxx 50 index opened the session with a small gap down after a strong rally on Friday. Since early September, lower lows have been created, suggesting a weakening of the bulls in the market. While the stochastic chart has neared the overbought zone, the RSI is still lingering around average level. The 38.2% level is within sights but this is not a firm support level considering recent price cycles. Traders may need to wait for more signals to enter a trade.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 3016.50, take profit at 3060.00, stop loss at 3084.40
https://capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-co...ort_footer.jpgDaily Report on October 04, 2016
The U.S dollar continued to strengthen against most of its peers, extending gains after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that the purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector rose to 51.5 in September from 49.4 the prior month. The gauge assesses confidence among mangers regarding manufacturing sector activity. The reading pointed to an expansion last month after shrinking in August.
In an interview on Bloomberg Television on Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester stated that the case for a rate hike this year remained compelling and she expected that the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate would be raised as soon as November. Markets are not pricing too much of a change next month as the meeting is too close to the U.S. presidential elections.
Besides Fed Cleveland President Mester, New York Fed President William Dudley also spoke on Monday. Speaking at a private conference at the New York Fed, President Dudley expressed fears that the Fed would not have as much policy room as it did during the period of financial crisis to support the economy if the U.S fell into recession in the next few years. Hence, the central bank should be cautious about raising interest rates.
Australia’s central bank, led by new Governor Philip Lowe, kept the benchmark rate unchanged at a record-low of 1.5 percent at its monetary policy meeting earlier today. The bank cited an unexpected rebound in commodity prices as a boost to the economy, helping it to grow at an above-average pace. Additionally, the housing boom in Australia is an area of rising concern and the real estate sector is in a situation that may not be suitable for further cuts, especially when the unemployment rate is falling and international trading conditions are favourable for Australia.
Technicals
USDCHF
Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart
USDCHF has been stuck in a range between the support at 0.96511 (which is also the 23.6% retracement level) and the resistance at 0.97400 since September 22nd. The pair rose above the two moving averages on Friday and the MA's have now become dynamic supports for the market. The price action is likely to make a breakout through the current range. As can be seen in the ADX chart, the ADX index has surged above 20, confirming a new uptrend after a period of moving sideways.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 0.97500, Take profit at 0.97800, Stop loss at 0.97250
AUDUSD
Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
AUDUSD is struggling around the 0.76730 level but is generally receiving support from the short-term MA20. The Aussie is expected to soar higher as the relative strength index continues to stay above the 50-line which separates the bullish territory from the bearish territory. Both MA's are currently placed below the price action and underpinning the market currently. The pair may test the high from Thursday at 0.77095.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 0.76800, Take profit at 0.77095, Stop loss at 0.76600
EURCAD
Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart
EURCAD has been moving sideways to lower since the start of the new month. The pair is currently under downward pressure from the two MAs which are placed above the price action and the downward sloping trendline that connects lower highs since September 27th. Both the MA's are currently placed above the price action.With the RSI indicating bearish sentiment, the pair is anticipated to fall further to the 23.6% level.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.46900, Take profit at 1.46350, Stop loss at 1.47470
SILVER
Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver was moving sideways under the long-term MA50 in the first half of yesterday’s trading day and eventually failed to breach this resistance. Furthermore, silver fell out of the recent range between 19.265 and 18.960 to hit major support at 18.765. This is a major support zone that had contained the prices in mid-September. As the market has entered the oversold zone, buyers stepped in and pushed the price back up, which can be seen in long lower shadow in recent candles. Silver may have found a bottom and is likely to pull back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 18.960, Take profit at 19.265, Stop loss at 18.765
COPPER
Fig: COPPER H4 Technical Chart
Copper has broken below the two MA's which have now turned into new points of resistance after the price action crossed over from above yesterday. A sharp decline on Monday sent the market into the bearish zone, trimming the rally that reigned in the second half of September. The commodity may fall deeper with the support at 2.1640 within sight. A weak reading on the RSI is confirming the downward momentum.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 2.1850, Take profit at 2.1640, Stop loss at 2.2050
Dow Jones
Fig: Dow Jones H4 Technical Chart
The Dow has been trading in a shrinking range for a month now, which has caused the RSI index to swing back and forth around the average line. The pair failed at the upper boundary of the recent range yesterday and fell back. The market may attempt a test of the lower boundary today, in case the retreat from yesterday continues. The %K line and %D line are heading downwards, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 18.220, Take profit at 18.100, Stop loss at 18.300
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