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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,141
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:53pm Sep 27, 2016 11:53pm
I am watching this thing on DJT's and HRC's backgrounds, pretty good, I am feeling alot of sympathy for both of them....what an awful thing, to be driven to accomplish so much....

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/the-choice-2016/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,142
  • Sep 28, 2016 12:01am Sep 28, 2016 12:01am
I shoulda known better than to get me hopes up....

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/s...075814867.html

"Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said earlier: "It is not the time for decision-making." Referring to the next formal OPEC meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30, he added: "We will try to reach agreement for November." "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,143
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:33pm Sep 28, 2016 4:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}The bullish puzzle pieces coming together (in my mind lol) - Trump chances to get in the White House getting slimmer every time he opens his mouth on the national stage; oil rally deals in the works; I could see the 2,200 prediction above holding true for October, no prob, then for 2017, the break-out year that has been waiting to happen, a quick rise to near 2,500 in Q1. Monday I got in a SPX 9/30 - 10/3 $217.5 calendar calls for 75c. that's worth $1.45 now - I will take something off at $2.50+ if I can by Friday, maybe let the long leg...
OPEC been the wet blanket on the markets for many moons, now coming back to play, we should see equities continue to rally with oil near term, buy expectation. SPX spread above I will try to milk a sweet finish Thurs or Fri, if I can net out $2+ I prolly will; also I have 9/30 - 10/5 SPY $218 calendar calls, in for 17c, those look better and there are enough to split out profits Friday & let the rest run into next week if SPY will hold under $218.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,144
  • Sep 28, 2016 6:23pm Sep 28, 2016 6:23pm
Quoting The Fool
solar names looking so cheap, a matter of picking the survivors....and being able to wait. A revival of decent crude prices would give some life, but that one is an enigma.... http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/0...g-deja-vu.aspx
I have been trying to fill some small longish-term SPWR call spreads, pity I did not get in this week what with now OPEC playing ball, SPWR up 10% in the last 5 days......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,145
  • Sep 28, 2016 10:08pm Sep 28, 2016 10:08pm
Quoting The Fool
have been trying to fill some small longish-term SPWR call spreads, pity I did not get in this week what with now OPEC playing ball, SPWR up 10% in the last 5 days......
SPWR back to $15 or better in the new year?....a HRC election win and crude back towards $60+ sounds like help
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,146
  • Sep 29, 2016 12:18am Sep 29, 2016 12:18am
sweet r:r on the flys with decent width, if SPY will rally on the price could come down on these. I am bullish but not fanatically and will always be hedging....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-28_2214spy.png Size: 83 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,147
  • Sep 30, 2016 11:48am Sep 30, 2016 11:48am
Quoting StrayDog
.... Thinking of AAPL Oct21 120/122 call verticals, with a 1:10 risk/reward, since they can be bought for $0.18 now. ER's are on Oct 25th, so idea is to use low vol to buy now, and IF the mofo one trick pony cooperate... and push the price higher before earnings...
Bought AAPL Oct 120/121 call verticals, for $0.07

So, same idea, I just bought $1 wide call spreads instead of a $2 wide. Chart and reasoning are the same.

A lotto ticket. Seems like /NQ will breach ATH next week, it is pretty close.

Maybe just set a GTC close at lets say $0.85 and have "positive expectancy" as they said.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #14,148
  • Edited 3:03pm Sep 30, 2016 12:57pm | Edited 3:03pm
Hi Rich,

Earning seasons is about to kick in. I'll also trade options in this period. Will try to post my analysis.

Happy trading!
  • #14,149
  • Sep 30, 2016 2:14pm Sep 30, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting hammadshahir
Hi Rich, Earnings seasons is about to kick in. I'll also trade options in this period. Will try to post my analysis. Happy trading!
Hi Hammad, welcome and please feel free to post trades and trade ideas anytime.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,150
  • Sep 30, 2016 2:47pm Sep 30, 2016 2:47pm
Filled near close 10/21 UVXY call fly @ $18/20/22 for 12c. This is a trade I put on more or less always to catch some vol, if it ever shows up. Often they expire worthless, but they are m/l there to guard the backside of bullish SPX call spreads.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,151
  • Sep 30, 2016 3:34pm Sep 30, 2016 3:34pm
Great thread you have "The Fool".

I personally have been experimenting trading options of stocks which have earnings releases in the near term. Looking for depressed price action with upcoming volatility.

I look soley for OTM call options of stock which are deep in "demand" price formation. These options are cheap and basically writing your own lottery ticket. Since my study has begun into the realm of options, two companies have come into great reward. Fedex (FDX), 40cent call appreciated thus far post earnings to $6.00 and greater. Bed Bad and Beyond (BBBY), was a quick hitter that stopped out shortly after earnings. Costco (COST), jumped considerably today the nearest OTM call option priced at 75cents jumped +$1.50. Still trying to figure out how best to play these longer term toward expiry date myself. So many ways to play this game. Again, thanks for your thread and your insight, keep up the great work.

sjc
  • #14,152
  • Sep 30, 2016 4:55pm Sep 30, 2016 4:55pm
"writing your own lottery ticket"....dayum, I like the sound of that, Coondawg! By all means show us your trades. Several of us here (and elsewhere) play the options at Earnings setups. I actually just lost money on those trades, for the most part, during the last earnings run, which coincided with an epic run of low vol.....

Anyway, welcome....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,153
  • Edited 9:54pm Sep 30, 2016 9:36pm | Edited 9:54pm
Quoting The Fool
Filled near close 10/21 UVXY call fly @ $18/20/22 for 12c. This is a trade I put on more or less always to catch some vol, if it ever shows up. Often they expire worthless, but they are m/l there to guard the backside of bullish SPX call spreads.
similarly, here's one filled for 7c - Nov UVXY $23/25/27 calls, P/L shown end of week b4 election week, modeled a 10% iv gain. The beauty of these is they will make money in almost any iv jack, the closer to the sweet spot and to expiry the better they pay. (and, of course, they will fill for pennies but return 10x or better with a good finish, and 3x or 4x across a huge range well b4 expiry if there is a nice vol spike.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,154
  • Oct 1, 2016 10:14pm Oct 1, 2016 10:14pm
I always remember AA (Alcoa) as m/l kicking up earnings season (AA ER on 10/10), but YUM is in the week before (10/5) and usually has better vol skew and moves more on the ER's.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,155
  • Oct 2, 2016 9:38pm Oct 2, 2016 9:38pm
loading for Monday:

SPX 10/10 vert puts 2160/2155 for $1.25 max
UVXY 10/14 fly calls $17.5/20/22.5 for 12c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,156
  • Oct 2, 2016 9:48pm Oct 2, 2016 9:48pm
about 10:1 r:r for a perfect finish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-02_1945uvxy.png Size: 69 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,157
  • Oct 3, 2016 1:30am Oct 3, 2016 1:30am
Quoting The Fool
loading for Monday: SPX 10/10 vert puts 2160/2155 for $1.25 max UVXY 10/14 fly calls $17.5/20/22.5 for 12c

Loading for Monday: All are for weekly options expiring Friday.

AAPL 111 strike call
CVS 92 strike put
FSLR 41 strike put
GS 157.50 strike call
MGM 25 strike call
VLO 55 strike put
  • #14,158
  • Oct 3, 2016 1:50pm Oct 3, 2016 1:50pm
Quoting The Fool
loading for Monday: SPX 10/10 vert puts 2160/2155 for $1.25 max UVXY 10/14 fly calls $17.5/20/22.5 for 12c
nothing filled, waiting til tomorrow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,159
  • Oct 4, 2016 11:57pm Oct 4, 2016 11:57pm
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} Loading for Monday: All are for weekly options expiring Friday. AAPL 111 strike call CVS 92 strike put FSLR 41 strike put GS 157.50 strike call MGM 25 strike call VLO 55 strike put
you had some good picks in there pete
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,160
  • Oct 5, 2016 12:14am Oct 5, 2016 12:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} you had some good picks in there pete
Hey Fool. How goes it on your end? I'm still seeking the bear. Out of any VIX's and won't jump until free-fall is in. Meanwhile indulging on some option plays and keep my daily hopes. Did really well 3 weeks ago on APPL. FSLR puts kicking in and so is CVS. NEM puts finally came to life last night. I've got a dozen others but nothing moving yet.

As of yesterday, I'm following SCCO but have not dived in yet for the bull. It continues to trade above its 2016 break even point and shows support at $25. Short interest has been declining from a hefty level but still represents 10% of the float. More strength may show more short covering. It would take 2 weeks to cover these bearish beats at the present daily volume. We be looking into further for a option play on the call side nearing the 31 strike.
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