OK, most will agree that the vast majority of people lose money in Forex and probably trading in general. Why is that? So I started thinking, what if everything you have been taught about trading is completely wrong? Sure many "systems" work for a while but why do they all of a sudden stop working? Does the market really change that much or are there inherent flaws in most trading systems that trap you into situations you shouldn't be in? After years of staring at a chart, I think I have found an edge. I am confident enough in this "edge" that I will forward test this on live accounts with two separate brokers. No it doesn't involve system price latency, I have it in two accounts to keep from having all my eggs in one basket.
For the most part, BACKTESTING IS A TOTAL WASTE OF TIME! There I said it! Agree with me or not I don't really care. You cannot get an accurate view of the success or failure of a system based on historical data that in most cases is missing several key pieces of information. Spread, slippage and requotes come to mind immediately. Magically none of this exists in a demo account either. It's not until you get into a live account that these issues show up.
The system? Right now, I don't want to show anyone what it is for the simple reason that I don't have all of the details worked out and I don't want others jumping in with me until I do. If it is successful I will publish the system in all of it's glory. LOL! The system will start out on the shorter time frames but as the accounts grow (if they grow) it will morph into longer and longer time frames.
The goals:
1. Don't blow the accounts! LOL! OK that's obvious.
2. When the accounts are small like they are now, trade only one pair. Once it grows and you get to higher and higher time frames additional pairs will be added.
3. Control risk. OK another obvious one. How much risk? Anywhere from 1 to 4% based on how the markets are moving.
4. Transition to the daily charts within 6 months of starting so trading is only a small part of the day.
Do I think it will grow to millions within a month? uhhh, yeah right! LOL!
Simply put, the accounts will grow however fast or slow the markets allow them to grow. If the GBPJPY isn't moving there is nothing I can do to change that. It's possible that what I think is an edge really isn't and it will just putter along. If I see it dropping too much I am not afraid to pull the plug and work and improvements as needed. Putting lofty and impossible to sustain goals on account growth is a key factor in failure. I am not knocking some of the threads here on FF most of the people running those threads know the risk and are doing it knowing that trading like that isn't sustainable. What they are doing is fun for a short time what I want to show here is that long term sustainable growth is possible with some time commitment. Their risk is relatively small when you consider the starting amount.
Well, what about the people with full time jobs? How can they put in the chart time needed to trade this way early in the account growth phase? Most people have plenty of time to trade. They just choose to do other things. If you want it bad enough, you will find the time. There was a young kid I was coaching at my house on my time for no charge and when I told him he needed to get up at 2 am (with me) every trading day to catch the Frankfurt and London Opens he told me there was no way he could do that. The same kid would stay up until 1 or 2 in the morning playing video games. He's on his own now. When someone gives you the opportunity to trade side by side with someone who has been in the markets for a decade the only thing you need to ask is where is my chair?
When I am trading, I will not update this thread. Most of the time from 5 pm to 7 pm eastern time US is when I have set aside time to ramble on in this and other threads here on FF. Of course if I catch a runner and all I am doing is managing the trade I can and will do some updates then.
Both accounts have a trade explorer and I will attach them here in this thread.
For the most part, BACKTESTING IS A TOTAL WASTE OF TIME! There I said it! Agree with me or not I don't really care. You cannot get an accurate view of the success or failure of a system based on historical data that in most cases is missing several key pieces of information. Spread, slippage and requotes come to mind immediately. Magically none of this exists in a demo account either. It's not until you get into a live account that these issues show up.
The system? Right now, I don't want to show anyone what it is for the simple reason that I don't have all of the details worked out and I don't want others jumping in with me until I do. If it is successful I will publish the system in all of it's glory. LOL! The system will start out on the shorter time frames but as the accounts grow (if they grow) it will morph into longer and longer time frames.
The goals:
1. Don't blow the accounts! LOL! OK that's obvious.
2. When the accounts are small like they are now, trade only one pair. Once it grows and you get to higher and higher time frames additional pairs will be added.
3. Control risk. OK another obvious one. How much risk? Anywhere from 1 to 4% based on how the markets are moving.
4. Transition to the daily charts within 6 months of starting so trading is only a small part of the day.
Do I think it will grow to millions within a month? uhhh, yeah right! LOL!
Simply put, the accounts will grow however fast or slow the markets allow them to grow. If the GBPJPY isn't moving there is nothing I can do to change that. It's possible that what I think is an edge really isn't and it will just putter along. If I see it dropping too much I am not afraid to pull the plug and work and improvements as needed. Putting lofty and impossible to sustain goals on account growth is a key factor in failure. I am not knocking some of the threads here on FF most of the people running those threads know the risk and are doing it knowing that trading like that isn't sustainable. What they are doing is fun for a short time what I want to show here is that long term sustainable growth is possible with some time commitment. Their risk is relatively small when you consider the starting amount.Well, what about the people with full time jobs? How can they put in the chart time needed to trade this way early in the account growth phase? Most people have plenty of time to trade. They just choose to do other things. If you want it bad enough, you will find the time. There was a young kid I was coaching at my house on my time for no charge and when I told him he needed to get up at 2 am (with me) every trading day to catch the Frankfurt and London Opens he told me there was no way he could do that. The same kid would stay up until 1 or 2 in the morning playing video games. He's on his own now. When someone gives you the opportunity to trade side by side with someone who has been in the markets for a decade the only thing you need to ask is where is my chair?
When I am trading, I will not update this thread. Most of the time from 5 pm to 7 pm eastern time US is when I have set aside time to ramble on in this and other threads here on FF. Of course if I catch a runner and all I am doing is managing the trade I can and will do some updates then.
Both accounts have a trade explorer and I will attach them here in this thread.
, subscribed on both, thanks a million!!