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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,941
  • Edited 5:15pm Sep 29, 2016 5:02pm | Edited 5:15pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hey Gro, Hope youre well also Just want to say, great art you posted around the thread. They are so beautiful. rgds
This is a small gift for the boss
  • #55,942
  • Sep 29, 2016 5:14pm Sep 29, 2016 5:14pm
Quoting hems
{quote} I didn't expect to get so many serious and unserious "quotes" to my post! I really apologise for not reading enough pages to come here and post, i'm just new to this forum and wanted to do a post, so i saw this topic at the top and here i'm! I'm sure most people here are more experienced than i'm and have done and worked waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay harder than i did! I'm not here to sell anything or that say i have "the secret"... Regarding your question, i'm very far from 10 years of work so the odds are it's just beginner luck and soon i'll...
unserious "quotes"
Monkey if he is frightened frustrated and depression...
The pressure which forms the monkey man ...
  • #55,943
  • Sep 29, 2016 5:18pm Sep 29, 2016 5:18pm
[quote=fti;9167243]
Quoting alexandria
{quote} by the way , any one knows whats this for? they feeding me this and it seems to help. hyoscine. esp the mist. magnesium trisilicate. anyway i still need crib( complete rest in bed ) until i get my energies back. So you all make lots $$$ on my behalf. regards
my nerves and ftis many ))
  • #55,944
  • Sep 29, 2016 5:48pm Sep 29, 2016 5:48pm
[quote=Gro;9169971]
Quoting fti
{quote} my nerves and ftis many ))
oh sorry I quote fti
  • #55,945
  • Edited 1:29am Sep 30, 2016 12:56am | Edited 1:29am
Quoting DeepBlue115
1) When a MM receive customers sell order, let's say the price is 00/02, as long as the customers keep selling putting the MM long, the MM will shade price higher 01/03, 02/04 etc... , until the MM can offload the position, if he can't offload now , the price will keep going north. How come when there are more sellers price go up? isn't it contradictory? 2) When all the MM are shading price, are they shading in the same direction? If they shade according to their own book and not in the same direction, aren't they going to create price discrepancy...
Hi, your first question, is good, ask yourself that question everytime you are in a trade and reassessing the price action, there is no hard and fast answer to it, every trade has a different answer to that question, that question you ask is part of the feel of what market is doing. A clue is mm can see order book and knows where majority of nearby flows are and they receive info when they are being hit hard by some players in the know. Hedge fund vs commercial, commercial flows diff from hedge funds because commercial flow might be just corp hedging so may not contain any useful info, but we not privy to such info, so we need analyse the pa to differentiate them. But I think you got part of the thinking process there, expand that thinking process more and in real-time assessing the flow you should be able to feel the markets.

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think about these 3 sequences, and then think about the question you asking, the thinking process is the key, your on the right path.

the 3rd clip, the guy from deutsche said "fuck you, words out, im hanging up." when will emerson was trying to get him to bite.
  • #55,946
  • Sep 30, 2016 6:01am Sep 30, 2016 6:01am
Quoting DeepBlue115
1) When a MM receive customers sell order, let's say the price is 00/02, as long as the customers keep selling putting the MM long, the MM will shade price higher 01/03, 02/04 etc... , until the MM can offload the position, if he can't offload now , the price will keep going north. How come when there are more sellers price go up? isn't it contradictory? 2) When all the MM are shading price, are they shading in the same direction? If they shade according to their own book and not in the same direction, aren't they going to create price discrepancy...
Hi DeepBlue115

it is price creating it own structure as the trades are processed, you are on the right track with this thinking as far as i am concerned, you must try to read the charts as a book and track what the buyers/sellers are doing NOW through the movement and the momentum it creates, forget the volume you have on your charts it is not true volume and will mislead/confuse things, here is your chart with the price structure drawn on it, it is only one part of the reading, the moves as in the pump and rest motion drill down even further to give earlier clues of the possibilities that may soon happen, these can be traded within one and another in the different frames.

good luck.

regards

Phil.

Attached Image
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #55,947
  • Sep 30, 2016 6:02am Sep 30, 2016 6:02am
Hi Gro

good to see here again.... .

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #55,948
  • Sep 30, 2016 11:52am Sep 30, 2016 11:52am
Quoting phil13
Hi Gro good to see here again.... . regards Phil.
Hi good see you
  • #55,949
  • Edited 7:51pm Sep 30, 2016 6:59pm | Edited 7:51pm
winter i listen spring song.hahahahaha
hahahaha today i am only chinese celebrate chinese new year?
ya today dantian stabilises.
so is to me chinese new year. mad man

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regards

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YangKueiFei also, maybe.
Ahhh the legendary beauty.
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  • #55,950
  • Edited 8:25pm Sep 30, 2016 8:11pm | Edited 8:25pm
Yang concubine, same fate as king Wu concubines.
There so many sun wu around meh?
Ai ya beauties. everyone wants own them otherwise behead em. ai ya life.

Ok back to party. Lets see if i can come back to life next week.
Thanks God for sleep.


regards

seems some one wanted shake structure, with a question.
There are many primary dealers in markets. Some defends the usd others defends their respective currencies.
Peeps still don't understand demand and supply.
If you demand want buy 100 mio and i can sell you the 100 mio and can sell you another half a yard, What do you think? More demand or supply?
  • #55,951
  • Sep 30, 2016 10:47pm Sep 30, 2016 10:47pm
Quoting fti
winter i listen spring song.hahahahaha hahahaha today i am only chinese celebrate chinese new year? ya today dantian stabilises. so is to me chinese new year. mad man https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub9kVoHdvos regards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2v07KTcxIg YangKueiFei also, maybe. Ahhh the legendary beauty. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPxufUeH_Bk {image}
chinese new year in 4 months

time to do swimming on the table?
  • #55,952
  • Oct 1, 2016 3:01am Oct 1, 2016 3:01am
Quoting fti
Yang concubine, same fate as king Wu concubines. There so many sun wu around meh? Ai ya beauties. everyone wants own them otherwise behead em. ai ya life. Ok back to party. Lets see if i can come back to life next week. Thanks God for sleep. regards seems some one wanted shake structure, with a question. There are many primary dealers in markets. Some defends the usd others defends their respective currencies. Peeps still don't understand demand and supply. If you demand want buy 100 mio and i can sell you the 100 mio and can sell you another half...

Hi fti

Good to hear you are starting to feel better my friend, take care.

If you are selling something of limited availability (there is only so much of it) and someone buys a lump off you then you will need to buy in more stock while at the same time suppling others so price will rise due to demand of the limited availability made worse/fueled by your need to re-stock the product (currency). So MM’s selling creates demand/rising price and MM’s buying creates supply/falling price.

This why we see the pump and rest motion, the pump is the product going out/coming in and the rest is chance to re-stock some/all, so the deeper the ‘re-stock’ into the pump the less chance there is of another high/low in price being formed or continuing (unless another force is applied like news event), this in my view is the ‘now’ action in the market.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #55,953
  • Edited 6:01am Oct 1, 2016 3:34am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting fti
Yang concubine, same fate as king Wu concubines. There so many sun wu around meh? Ai ya beauties. everyone wants own them otherwise behead em. ai ya life. Ok back to party. Lets see if i can come back to life next week. Thanks God for sleep. regards seems some one wanted shake structure, with a question. There are many primary dealers in markets. Some defends the usd others defends their respective currencies. Peeps still don't understand demand and supply. If you demand want buy 100 mio and i can sell you the 100 mio and can sell you another half...
FTI - prayers working I hope..... stay well and rest.

I go to market and buy my tomatoes from you - lots of them as I doing big banquet - you sold me at your price. Other peeps doing same as it banquet season - lots of demand for tomatoes. You run/running out when demand is high. Your fellow traders also have high demand.

You need go buy some from other market trader(s) or go back to your suppliers to restock but lots of other peeps also demanding more tomatoes - we all look for best price - price goes up as lots of demand - you demand best price from your suppliers for best profit and your customers' demand from you at cheapest but they panicking as short of tomatoes and see lots of others buying. You may ditch resupplying other stuff and buy more tomatoes that you want to sell for good price while it lasts - supplier wants profit in good times and so do you - price keeps going up as we all short of tomatoes.

A few hours later I go back to buy emergency tomatoes - but wow your price too high - look not many peeps here now buying and nearing end of day - please make me a nice deal -------else I not buying. ..... you do me nice cheaper deal and price has dropped.
--------------------------------------------------
What happened yesterday everyone wanted tomatoes - you have lots but no one wants today all hungover cannot sell - drop price try to make deals to move em. Suddenly rumour re tomato blight and peeps run to market to buy emergency tomatoes in panic... let the good times roll.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,954
  • Oct 1, 2016 7:49am Oct 1, 2016 7:49am
Hi friends, thanks for the reply and welcome

Indeed there are many tricks that all the big money can employed. It is impossible to figure out all of them. We as a retail traders must use our advantage, the ability to be flexible and fight using guerilla tactics.

In order to overcome the sometime deceiving chart pattern, it is beneficial not to apply any preconceived thought on any pattern. The basic example is when price is approaching double top or double bottom, I do not assume it will hold. Instead, I observe and see what the price action tell, and trade accordingly.

I normally take note of previous major high/low, yesterday low/high, where the stop zone and limit zone are. Sometimes when there is a break of sell stop zone, price reverse, I know the undercurrent has changed, buyers have come in, as for as how far the demand will continue, price action will lead.

This is war, and the pattern is constantly shifting based on supply and demand, when price action do not conform to my entry, I cut and join the other force, but I do not flip the second time, this is to avoid becoming a pig.

Sometimes the terrain is rough, reflecting in a chart with zig zag pattern, I shall withdraw myself, for the safety of capital and the serenity of mind. As short term movement is caused by flow, I do not leave my soldier too long in the battlefield, as tomorrow is a new day.

In battlefield, to crush the enemy, I shall be unbiased, emotionless and heartless.

Hi Fti, my Chinese friend told me in china stock market there are so called 庄家，it means “the house” who can basically control the stock price movement as it wish, who are they? The big money that bought enough of the share? Or the MM? Is this prevalent in US stock market too?

Friends, how many pairs do u guys follow when dancing? How many hours do u guys trade？ Sometimes when price action don’t make sense, staring at the chart waiting for more optimal opportunity can be a pain too, how do u guys cope with it? Assuming I can’t walk away in case any opportunity present.


Regards
  • #55,955
  • Oct 1, 2016 8:09am Oct 1, 2016 8:09am
Interesting, I see the pump and rest motion this way, when pumping, it is obvious that there are not much seller during the pump, it is sort of like a vacuum, suddenly there is a large stack of selling , resulting in the resting motion in the chart. what got me thinking is, why the seller choose to enter at this price, instead of the price during the pump, could it be he know there are lots of buy orders here to cover his sell orders, after filling some of his sell order, often they will be retrace just enough to touch previous breakout point, could it be he is knocking out the stop of all the buyers along the pump before another up move?

Of course it is just my guess, it could be far from reality

regards
  • #55,956
  • Oct 1, 2016 10:00am Oct 1, 2016 10:00am
Hi guys, have been lurking in this thread for quite a week reading through FTI's teachings.

I hope i'm not too late for this since this started like 9 years ago! i'm going to read through page by page, only at page 311 now..hahaha.
  • #55,957
  • Oct 1, 2016 1:31pm Oct 1, 2016 1:31pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} FTI - prayers working I hope..... stay well and rest. I go to market and buy my tomatoes from you - lots of them as I doing big banquet - you sold me at your price. Other peeps doing same as it banquet season - lots of demand for tomatoes. You run/running out when demand is high. Your fellow traders also have high demand. You need go buy some from other market trader(s) or go back to your suppliers to restock but lots of other peeps also demanding more tomatoes - we all look for best price - price goes up as lots of demand - you demand best...
All the things they want to expand and Space wants to concentrate ... What a mess!
  • #55,958
  • Oct 1, 2016 1:37pm Oct 1, 2016 1:37pm
Quoting DeepBlue115
Interesting, I see the pump and rest motion this way, when pumping, it is obvious that there are not much seller during the pump, it is sort of like a vacuum, suddenly there is a large stack of selling , resulting in the resting motion in the chart. what got me thinking is, why the seller choose to enter at this price, instead of the price during the pump, could it be he know there are lots of buy orders here to cover his sell orders, after filling some of his sell order, often they will be retrace just enough to touch previous breakout point, could...
Advantages and disadvantages terrain are explained in Art of War...Sun Zi Bing Fa
  • #55,959
  • Oct 1, 2016 2:00pm Oct 1, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting fti
Yang concubine, same fate as king Wu concubines. There so many sun wu around meh? Ai ya beauties. everyone wants own them otherwise behead em. ai ya life. Ok back to party. Lets see if i can come back to life next week. Thanks God for sleep. regards seems some one wanted shake structure, with a question. There are many primary dealers in markets. Some defends the usd others defends their respective currencies. Peeps still don't understand demand and supply. If you demand want buy 100 mio and i can sell you the 100 mio and can sell you another half...
Debt and apology is free ...
  • #55,960
  • Oct 1, 2016 6:07pm Oct 1, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting DeepBlue115
Hi friends, thanks for the reply and welcome Indeed there are many tricks that all the big money can employed. It is impossible to figure out all of them. We as a retail traders must use our advantage, the ability to be flexible and fight using guerilla tactics. In order to overcome the sometime deceiving chart pattern, it is beneficial not to apply any preconceived thought on any pattern. The basic example is when price is approaching double top or double bottom, I do not assume it will hold. Instead, I observe and see what the price action tell,...

I think it helps, when God decides smile at me.
Thank You to Alex for prayers.

But as always he also gives me job to do.

OMG can someone help DeepB? please.

ok i try do you mind spring cleaning piece by piece. As much as i can.

regards
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