Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2797 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,921
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:09pm Sep 28, 2016 4:09pm
[quote=Gro;9167007]{quote} yes many monkeys use Indicators, therefore I want to see indikators ... but I use tunnel thru the air for monkeys money ... rgs[/quote



Read it ...loved it...not sure I get it.....except I sort of do....


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,922
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:10pm Sep 28, 2016 4:10pm
[quote=alexandria;9167223]
Quoting fti
ahhhh my friends, no worrys pls. i am good. Just developed lots gas, for unknown reasons. I still wondering where comes the gas. And gas prices ......./quote] With you my friend in spirit.........as much as you know.........and a bit more..... Do not worry about us......we are good....... Gas price ok.....Fti pricelesss Alex


by the way , any one knows whats this for?
they feeding me this and it seems to help.
hyoscine.
esp the mist. magnesium trisilicate.

anyway i still need crib( complete rest in bed ) until i get my energies back.
So you all make lots $$$ on my behalf.

regards
  • #55,923
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:15pm Sep 28, 2016 4:15pm
[quote=fti;9167243]
Quoting alexandria
{quote} by the way , any one knows whats this for? they feeding me this and it seems to help. hyoscine. esp the mist. magnesium trisilicate. anyway i still need crib( complete rest in bed ) until i get my energies back. So you all make lots $$$ on my behalf. regards


Anti sickness....as much as I know....you take real care.........with ya ....every step....



Alex x
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,924
  • Sep 28, 2016 5:07pm Sep 28, 2016 5:07pm
[quote=alexandria;9167251]
Quoting fti
{quote} Anti sickness....as much as I know....you take real care.........with ya ....every step.... Alex x


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


regards
  • #55,925
  • Sep 28, 2016 8:25pm Sep 28, 2016 8:25pm
Quoting fti
ahhhh my friends, no worrys pls. i am good. Just developed lots gas, for unknown reasons. I still wondering where comes the gas. And gas prices not so hot these days. i will take some more rest. You peeps enjoy trading markets and trading some knowledge. Don't worry about me. Although this my thread, There's a bunch of you good peeps makes lots money and have lots fun. If you worry about me then i need find more energy keep up with you chappys. Just go on help each other out, i will be back have party when i recovers from this gas ordeal. For now...

HI FTI.

Noted - you take care.

not too sure bout the med, ran a quick check on google, boths says to relief abdominal pain and issues etc

ok, will self invite myself for a few drinks while awaiting your arrival.

take care

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,926
  • Sep 28, 2016 8:26pm Sep 28, 2016 8:26pm
Quoting Gro
Hi fti and everyone I am here only for a moment ... I've just wanted to say hello fti and my friends. I hope everything is okay ... rgs
Hey Gro,

Hope youre well also
Just want to say, great art you posted around the thread. They are so beautiful.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,927
  • Sep 28, 2016 8:28pm Sep 28, 2016 8:28pm
Hi ALL

Mega cup of coffee this morning,
woke up late, missed the oil production news. Did not get on the ride, did not get on most ride in fact.

Will go into my bunker, and sniper nest for further evaluation and pause in rhythm before moving out.

Take care, god bless.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,928
  • Sep 28, 2016 10:28pm Sep 28, 2016 10:28pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Hems, Thank you for your posting and sharing your thought with us. If you have come with an advice quoted above, then you are very welcome to just read at least some 10 - 50 pages at the beginning of the Thread (basics are first 200 - 250 pages). There you will see the crux 3 pillars: You (Your Mindset), Capitalisation and Market Knowledge. TA background is just a part of the latter. Your hard working indicator using idea has already and at large been discussed as well as experienced by many. Must therefore agree that Yes - TA works...
I didn't expect to get so many serious and unserious "quotes" to my post!

I really apologise for not reading enough pages to come here and post, i'm just new to this forum and wanted to do a post, so i saw this topic at the top and here i'm!

I'm sure most people here are more experienced than i'm and have done and worked waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay harder than i did!

I'm not here to sell anything or that say i have "the secret"...

Regarding your question, i'm very far from 10 years of work so the odds are it's just beginner luck and soon i'll blow my account again!

Thanks y'll for your warm welcome and apologise for adding more noise to this thread.

I'll try to have a deeper look on this thread soon...

To be honest, i'm addicted to doing backtests and i don't know much about markets specially compared to experienced people in this forum!

i just keep backtesting setups ( very basic ones as well, because i'm no TA specialist ) until i find something interesting..

this must go very wrong at some point right ?
  • #55,929
  • Sep 28, 2016 11:08pm Sep 28, 2016 11:08pm
Thread was for analysis, and that term is missing in another conversion. So hope that analysis chart should be posted soon,
  • #55,930
  • Sep 29, 2016 12:24am Sep 29, 2016 12:24am
Quoting hems
{quote} I didn't expect to get so many serious and unserious "quotes" to my post! Regarding your question, i'm very far from 10 years of work so the odds are it's just beginner luck and soon i'll blow my account again! Thanks y'll for your warm welcome and apologise for adding more noise to this thread. I'll try to have a deeper look on this thread soon... To be honest, i'm addicted to doing backtests and i don't know much about markets specially compared to experienced people in this forum! i just keep backtesting setups ( very basic ones as well,...
Hello Hems,

Thank you for your kind reply. Indeed, there are different individuals with of course exceptional or genuine personality. Way to succeed in trading is your own. If you are truly devoted to hard working way, then IMO the Fti's TAF thread would be of much help. I would try and reiterate mentioned in the Thread, gems by Fti and many experienced traders - briefly: read carefully (regardless whatever your background, presuming you are new with Forex) may take several approaches, ask questions to your colleagues here; try demo; try very small live, practise and practise; and it might take years to become a consistently profitable trader. Backtesting would be an ants work, step by step building confidence. There are many personal endavour stories (blowing accounts, etc.) within the thread, it is not only about trading. 3 Pillars approach might not be the easiest and fastest path. And individual will, aptitude is of significance.

E.g., regardless whatever my own experience I am a humble learner here, being on page 1370 at the moment.

Wish you to find your way and all the success!

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #55,931
  • Sep 29, 2016 12:57am Sep 29, 2016 12:57am
Quoting hems
{quote} I didn't expect to get so many serious and unserious "quotes" to my post! I really apologise for not reading enough pages to come here and post, i'm just new to this forum and wanted to do a post, so i saw this topic at the top and here i'm! I'm sure most people here are more experienced than i'm and have done and worked waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay harder than i did! I'm not here to sell anything or that say i have "the secret"... Regarding your question, i'm very far from 10 years of work so the odds are it's just beginner luck and soon i'll...

i suggest you dont back test your strategy, but do it in demo, forward testing, economic conditions back then is not available to us now, so backtesting is just sometime which looks nice on paper, but has little value. and not accounting for primary driver or states the economy is in, when back testing will kill your account

it will also show you what is expected of you emotionally to do it in realtime, without the right side of the chart to look at
  • #55,932
  • Edited 1:34am Sep 29, 2016 1:21am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} i suggest you dont back test your strategy, but do it in demo, forward testing, economic conditions back then is not available to us now, so backtesting is just sometime which looks nice on paper, but has little value. and not accounting for primary driver or states the economy is in, when back testing will kill your account it will also show you what is expected of you emotionally to do it in realtime, without the right side of the chart to look at
Guys thanks a lot for your kind replies and tips.

@CookieMonsta I already went trough a lot of this, i do run strategies live for some time and yeah when i discovered the differences between backtesting and real accounts it definitely wasn't the best of the surprises i could have, also being nervous / anxious / wanting to override while robots trade important positions was one of the most intense feelings i always had in my life, really trilling, nights and nights without proper sleep!!

but that is a different topic, i'll come back to this thread and learn loads and hopefully one day i will be able to truly contribute.

again apologises for the off topic here, i really didn't mean to disrupt the thread with my childish "hello world" post.
  • #55,933
  • Sep 29, 2016 1:52am Sep 29, 2016 1:52am
I am glad to be wrong Nothing personal . "hello world " is fine Many people come to that kind of forums and try to sell some "special" back tested EA if you have read forums you must seen this. As I remember FTI explained where fallacy lay in first few pages.

Again sorry for misunderstanding i am here to to learn if you will read more and more of the thread you will see how FTI always fights with sellers
  • #55,934
  • Edited 8:31am Sep 29, 2016 1:54am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting hems
{quote} Guys thanks a lot for your kind replies and tips. @CookieMonsta I already went trough a lot of this, i do run strategies live for some time and yeah when i discovered the differences between backtesting and real accounts it definitely wasn't the best of the surprises i could have, also being nervous / anxious / wanting to override while robots trade important positions was one of the most intense feelings i always had in my life, really trilling, nights and nights without proper sleep!! but that is a different topic, i'll come back to this...
you should learn to manage the position on your own, and develop the confidence in your own skill to manage trades, or you will hit problems when trying to scale up your size after some initial success, instead of having a robot do it for you.
  • #55,935
  • Sep 29, 2016 3:06am Sep 29, 2016 3:06am
Quoting hems
{quote} I didn't expect to get so many serious and unserious "quotes" to my post! I really apologise for not reading enough pages to come here and post, i'm just new to this forum and wanted to do a post, so i saw this topic at the top and here i'm! I'm sure most people here are more experienced than i'm and have done and worked waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay harder than i did! I'm not here to sell anything or that say i have "the secret"... Regarding your question, i'm very far from 10 years of work so the odds are it's just beginner luck and soon i'll...
Thanks for explanation.

I guess you could do small back testing first to look at where you would enter scouts + attack in a few examples and where you might rescue and how - BUT you must demo it in live for the full rich picture. Look to where buyers and sellers might kick in and what signs may be there.

Stop worrying about the testing stuff... relax... slow down... non rigid.... no crystal ball....... do a few quick examples of what you would do and then go demo it to really learn from market... while reading FTI posts. It comes slowly slowly. It is soooooooo worth it.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,936
  • Sep 29, 2016 9:21am Sep 29, 2016 9:21am
Hi friends, I have been following this thread for a while, among all the great wisdom, I will have to say that market micro structure is the most important thing a retail trader can learn, without this aspect of knowledge, it doesn't matter whether we have robust money management or great discipline.

I recall a previous post from FTI mentioning that the price chart is print by MM, so without actual knowledge of the inner working of the market, our decision that based on even a naked chart will mislead us. Sadly, despite all the research paper out there about market micro structure , a practical teaching of this area is far and few. I hope all of us should not neglect this area, so to start the discussion, I will present my question and hopefully someone will shed some light on this.

Regards
  • #55,937
  • Sep 29, 2016 10:12am Sep 29, 2016 10:12am
1) When a MM receive customers sell order, let's say the price is 00/02, as long as the customers keep selling putting the MM long, the MM will shade price higher 01/03, 02/04 etc... , until the MM can offload the position, if he can't offload now , the price will keep going north. How come when there are more sellers price go up? isn't it contradictory?

2) When all the MM are shading price, are they shading in the same direction? If they shade according to their own book and not in the same direction, aren't they going to create price discrepancy for the same instrument for arbitrage opportunity?

3)How price discovery truly work? If MM shade price in their favor, aren't they going against the flow?

Because due to lack of resources in this area, I spend most of the time looking at naked chart trying to dissect the meaning of every price action, there is one recurring price action that really caught my interest. It is like a staircase, impulse-retrace-impulse-retrace, it is very orderly, and the retrace just merely touch the previous breakout point before continuing.

I am wondering, what makes it continue or reverse, are the MM testing the upper boundary and lower boundary with all those spike? For example in this case if he feel top supply is strong, he will take as much customers buy order as he can and suddenly breakout into the area in favor of him? what do u guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_9805959_EURCHF_2016-09-30_01-01-17.png Size: 68 KB



Regards
  • #55,938
  • Sep 29, 2016 10:29am Sep 29, 2016 10:29am
Quoting DeepBlue115
Hi friends, I have been following this thread for a while, among all the great wisdom, I will have to say that market micro structure is the most important thing a retail trader can learn, without this aspect of knowledge, it doesn't matter whether we have robust money management or great discipline. I recall a previous post from FTI mentioning that the price chart is print by MM, so without actual knowledge of the inner working of the market, our decision that based on even a naked chart will mislead us. Sadly, despite all the research paper out...
If you interested, trading in a sense is like chess, the game theory aspect of it allows us to manage our position better, and with a feel and read of the opponent, we could device better strategy to defeat him/her. Especially against a human player where we are anticipating their move, but we cannot say for sure what his move will be, but if what their move is out of expectation, we have to make our move after the fact to either defend or press them if the opportunity allows. It's similar in trading.
  • #55,939
  • Edited 11:38pm Sep 29, 2016 12:57pm | Edited 11:38pm
Quoting DeepBlue115
1) When a MM receive customers sell order, let's say the price is 00/02, as long as the customers keep selling putting the MM long, the MM will shade price higher 01/03, 02/04 etc... , until the MM can offload the position, if he can't offload now , the price will keep going north. How come when there are more sellers price go up? isn't it contradictory? 2) When all the MM are shading price, are they shading in the same direction? If they shade according to their own book and not in the same direction, aren't they going to create price discrepancy...

Hello,
WElcome.
Sorry, not very sure how to answer you, but let me try.
First off, do let us remind ourselves that there are many MM, not just one, and in MMs, there are different MM.
Tier 1, tier 2, tier 3, and others.
So, depending on where customer orders go, and book order. it does not always have the same result, right? there are so many variation and possibilities. However, given that customer buys, bank sell the other. They may, carry on the bid testing the market, until theres no demand, before moving down again.
if 00/02 gets accepted, why would he bid quote 00/02 again, he would try 01/03 or more right, until there is no one offering him. so lets say, he gets till 08/10 then it stalls... someone quote 07/09 instead. what happens then? Also, there is more then the spot desk at their disposal.

Forgive me, but I do think, that you might be over-thinking it. It feels rigid and too many things on your mind. Honestly, why not keep it simple. BUy when they buy, sell when they sell. Send a scout, react accordingly. If scout doesn't check well, or plays badly and non-rescue able. Kill it. If rescue able wait for opportunity to strike. I understand and know, this is hard. Perhaps more reading on the market structure will help. Have you read paper money as suggested? Or tunnel thru the air, or art of war?

i always wonder, why the thread have a lack of pictorial analysis, and pattern discussion etc. Recently I just understood why. And my conclusion was that, if there were these around, it be very quick to form rigid thinking and assumptions on patterns. Worse still, it prohibits the mind from moving freely and imagining visualizing how the price moves. In my opinion, words paint a far better picture then any picture can ever paint, the picture is 2D, but the mind... its limitless and know no boundaries. A thousand words to a picture, a picture to a thousand words. Just relax, and imagine.. play it out. I found that, that works best for me. As above, so below. The mind is also a master of trickery.

Price structure, is after all, made up of buyer and seller. Whats between, is the spread. Right? Whats printed, is their foot prints, right? And where is the pulse, and where is the rhythm..? is there an over tone, or under tone?

FTI always mention, the flow and timing is most important, beside being nimble and never rigid. Get in the rhythm and flow. Dont need to ask her so many questions, and never try to lead her. Let her show you instead, listen to her, she will guide and tell. Stay nimble and light footed. rigidity kills.

rgds

sorry, had to type it quickly,
yen got bought and cad got sold, may want in on some action. we'll see.

saw this today,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...tus-a-timeline
YUAN in the SDR basket now, whats captured my eye was, its % is higher then yen and gbp
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,940
  • Sep 29, 2016 4:53pm Sep 29, 2016 4:53pm
Quoting fti
ahhhh my friends, no worrys pls. i am good. Just developed lots gas, for unknown reasons. I still wondering where comes the gas. And gas prices not so hot these days. i will take some more rest. You peeps enjoy trading markets and trading some knowledge. Don't worry about me. Although this my thread, There's a bunch of you good peeps makes lots money and have lots fun. If you worry about me then i need find more energy keep up with you chappys. Just go on help each other out, i will be back have party when i recovers from this gas ordeal. For now...
Hi fti
Now is time Lung and Large Intestine, many energy in this meridian.I forgoten your pillars sorry...you healing Large Intestine and thus help the Lung ...
take care
13 traders viewing now