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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,121
  • Sep 18, 2016 12:06pm Sep 18, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting Forexpinbar
I will be very glad if you can recommend a trusted broker to trade stocks with long term expiries.
I don't advise traders about who to trade with & usually assume questions like this are phishing attempts. Finding a broker to trade options with is as easy as using the Internet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,122
  • Sep 18, 2016 1:12pm Sep 18, 2016 1:12pm
I need a simulator account to trade options..can you help me with that?
Goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary
  • #14,123
  • Sep 19, 2016 3:32pm Sep 19, 2016 3:32pm
market seems like it want to give up some big booty moves, BOJ/FOMC maybe bust things loose this week - I am already in a variety of 2-way setups, using SPX or SPY puts & calls and also some UVXY call spreads. Added today: UVXY 9/23 $24.5/$25 vert calls for 7c, looking to net out 30c on a big drop in equities. The other side SPY 9/23 - 9/28 diag calls @ $217.5/$218.0 for $0.14......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,124
  • Sep 23, 2016 9:59am Sep 23, 2016 9:59am
Quoting The Fool
Added today: UVXY 9/23 $24.5/$25 vert calls for 7c, looking to net out 30c on a big drop in equities. The other side SPY 9/23 - 9/28 diag calls @ $217.5/$218.0 for $0.14......
SPY diag, took some off for 30c, net out 15c....UVXY spread will expire worthless.....I don't doubt we will see spoos grind up in coming weeks & the VIX back down scudding the historic low rail. Some of the SPY diag above I am trying to let run into $218 9/28 long calls.

Coming weeks maybe we see some jitters along with the coming US elections.....maybe not.....my best guess is new SPX ath's above 2,200 in October.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,125
  • Sep 25, 2016 2:57am Sep 25, 2016 2:57am
Monday we have the 1st debate between Hillary & the Donald. This has potential to rile the markets if Trump shows well. They could rally well with the opposite outcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,126
  • Sep 25, 2016 4:00am Sep 25, 2016 4:00am
Quoting The Fool
Monday we have the 1st debate between Hillary & the Donald. This has potential to rile the markets if Trump shows well. They could rally well with the opposite outcome.
the bull side of the equation can be cheap to play with a well-placed diagonal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,127
  • Sep 26, 2016 10:11am Sep 26, 2016 10:11am
Hi all... long time no posting, since I had a lot of private things to do, so I pretty much skipped trading for entire Aug, and first half of Sept.

So, how about a little bullish idea on AAPL?
Resistance on that chart is somewhere on $122.50 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thinking of AAPL Oct21 120/122 call verticals, with a 1:10 risk/reward, since they can be bought for $0.18 now.
ER's are on Oct 25th, so idea is to use low vol to buy now, and IF the mofo one trick pony cooperate... and push the price higher before earnings...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #14,128
  • Edited 11:31pm Sep 26, 2016 11:18pm | Edited 11:31pm
Quoting StrayDog
So, how about a little bullish idea on AAPL? ...
bullish anything bro - good to see you, hope all has been well. How bout bullish US banks on the back of the Dec ffr hike? A Jan/Feb $18 BAC calls calendar for 3 centavos? A 50-lot risks $235 and could end up paying $10k if BAC broke out to $20 post Jan expiry....yeah I know BAC not seen 20 bucks since 2010, but....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,129
  • Sep 27, 2016 12:55pm Sep 27, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting The Fool
Coming weeks maybe we see some jitters along with the coming US elections.....maybe not.....my best guess is new SPX ath's above 2,200 in October.
The bullish puzzle pieces coming together (in my mind lol) - Trump chances to get in the White House getting slimmer every time he opens his mouth on the national stage; oil rally deals in the works; I could see the 2,200 prediction above holding true for October, no prob, then for 2017, the break-out year that has been waiting to happen, a quick rise to near 2,500 in Q1.

Monday I got in a SPX 9/30 - 10/3 $217.5 calendar calls for 75c. that's worth $1.45 now - I will take something off at $2.50+ if I can by Friday, maybe let the long leg calls run into next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,130
  • Sep 27, 2016 12:59pm Sep 27, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting The Fool
Monday I got in a SPX 9/30 - 10/3 $217.5 calendar calls for 75c. that's worth $1.45 now - I will take something off at $2.50+ if I can by Friday, maybe let the long leg calls run into next week.
Most of my trading now is on these weekly SPX options, I like the many expiries. I just don't have time to try to play in the individual names & it's the best I can do to try to sniff out the short term moves of the broader market. Rather than trade the SPX puts for downside moves, I more often tend to hedge bullish trades with spreads in UVXY, VXX and VIX. Sameoldshit....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,131
  • Edited 4:09pm Sep 27, 2016 3:18pm | Edited 4:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Rather than trade the SPX puts for downside moves, I more often tend to hedge bullish trades with spreads in UVXY, VXX and VIX. Sameoldshit....
been looking at VXX and UVXY spreads for Nov4/Nov18 - maybe catch a vol spike going into the election....however, nothing filled, watching for those names to slide some more this week......it has been harder to fill cheap call verticals in UVXY since the r/s....just as well, I guess, because it is doing what it does best, slide towards $0
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,132
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:36pm Sep 27, 2016 4:36pm
VIX trades for your IRA, OK?
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...ira-09-27-2016
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,133
  • Sep 27, 2016 7:48pm Sep 27, 2016 7:48pm
Quoting The Fool
A Jan/Feb $18 BAC calls calendar for 3 centavos? A 50-lot risks $235 and could end up paying $10k if BAC broke out to $20 post Jan expiry....yeah I know BAC not seen 20 bucks since 2010, but...
FILLED one for 4c - 30 not 50, I am stuck on the $10 tables prolly 4ever....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,134
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:21pm Sep 27, 2016 11:21pm
do any of you use any kinds of "sentiment" index type tools? (equity related) ...do you get any use out of them? Do you know of any (that are free) that present real-time sentiment estimations based on social media and/or financail press data mining?

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
http://www.market-harmonics.com/free...ntiment/nu.htm
https://ycharts.com/indicators/inves...timent_bullish
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,135
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:25pm Sep 27, 2016 11:25pm
Whazzup, dawg? Slogging through this crap?

I've moved to covered calls and naked short puts for a little bit here, just to take a little bit of daily stress off. They're slo moving mofos that you may have to work for a while if price doesn't go your way, which is fine for me, since you also don't have to pay that great a deal of attention to them. Check them every so often to see if the short call is approaching worthless and sell more calls against; lather, rinse, repeat, schnooze.

The brief little bit of >15 VIX on 9/12 allowed me to slap on some short duration, broad index crap (the first since the beginning of July), which I've now all taken off in the ensuing vol crush ... . Very unproductive summer for me with SPY/SPX etc., which is kind of how you figured it would play out. Suckage. Oh, well, when the market doesn't give you what you want in the things you want, move on ... . Follow the volatility ... .

Now, it's all about those little elections ... . Hand sitting mostly here, sitting on a stack of dry powder, hoping that the elections give me something decent to trade.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,136
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:37pm Sep 27, 2016 11:37pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . Very unproductive summer for me with SPY/SPX etc., which is kind of how you figured it would play out. Suckage. Oh, well, when the market doesn't give you what you want in the things you want, move on ... . Follow the volatility ... . Now, it's all about those little elections ... . Hand sitting mostly here, sitting on a stack of dry powder, hoping that the elections give me something decent to trade.
hey mayne, yeah, I woulda been better off skipping post Brexit out to Jackson Hole. Election year Octobers have historically offered up some decent vol, so I am per usual trying to get in cheap spreads to catch some o that if it comes. I am not really betting there will be anything more than a few spikes if the HRC win/Fed Dec hike scenario plays out....of course, the Trump surprise would be a different story....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,137
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:41pm Sep 27, 2016 11:41pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Whazzup, dawg? Slogging through this crap? I've moved to covered calls and naked short puts for a little bit here, just to take a little bit of daily stress off. They're slo moving mofos that you may have to work for a while if price doesn't go your way, which is fine for me, since you also don't have to pay that great a deal of attention to them. Check them every so often to see if the short call is approaching worthless and sell more calls against; lather, rinse, repeat, schnooze. The brief little bit of >15 VIX on 9/12 allowed me to slap on some...
In the alternative, this little DB "situation" is shaping up to be a possible binary event; it's being painted by various media outlets as a Lehman Brothers situation squared with a massive and "massively opaque" derivatives book.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,138
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:45pm Sep 27, 2016 11:45pm
solar names looking so cheap, a matter of picking the survivors....and being able to wait. A revival of decent crude prices would give some life, but that one is an enigma....

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/0...g-deja-vu.aspx
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,139
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:46pm Sep 27, 2016 11:46pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} In the alternative, this little DB "situation" is shaping up to be a possible binary event; it's being painted by various media outlets as a Lehman Brothers situation squared with a massive and "massively opaque" derivatives book.
But, I mean, if the DB CEO says "We're not a dangerous bank," well, then, I guess DB's not a "dangerous bank" ... . Just like the recent Wells Fargo debacle was just "a few bad eggs."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,140
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:51pm Sep 27, 2016 11:51pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
But, I mean, if the DB CEO says "We're not a dangerous bank," well, then, I guess DB's not a "dangerous bank" ... . Just like the recent Wells Fargo debacle was just "a few bad eggs."

sheesh, don't ya think WFC will bounce back though, down the road, after the smoke clears, if/when we get into rates normailization....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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